7:33AM

Not a blast, but a slow easing into the coldest air of the season so far, which you still must wait until later Tuesday to see arrive. Still not a whole lot of change to the forecasts previously posted. Here though I can offer you a little more detail regarding the coming weekend. First, we get rid of the small rain to snow event, which as of the time of this writing, is basically over everywhere except rain drops and a few snow flakes on Cape Cod. Where snow did accumulate, we saw generally a coating to an inch or so, mainly on unpaved surfaces. That will melt today as the sun returns and the ground is still relatively warm. The day will turn mostly sunny as dry air moves in and the developing storm moves away. It will be chilly, but not too cold, though the breeze that develops will give the air a nip. Look for a cold night tonight under a clear sky and active breeze. The weekend will be a bit of a split, with lots of sunshine Saturday as high pressure dominates, though still breezy as there is a squeeze between high pressure centered to the southwest and low pressure more intense but far away to the northeast, and then expect a period of cloudiness and perhaps an isolated snow shower as warmer air moves in aloft. The cloudiness may actually decrease a little bit later in the day. Things are still looking the same for the first half of next week, unsettled Monday as low pressure rides up the East Coast but bringing mild enough air for a mainly rain event (still watching for some mix inland), then the coldest air of the season so far by later Tuesday and especially Wednesday, into Thursday.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TODAY: Clearing by late morning then mostly sunny. Highs in the 40s. Wind NW 10-20 MPH and gusty.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows in the 20s inland, lower 30s coast. Wind NW 5-15 MPH and gusty.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 40-45. Wind NW 10-20 MPH and gusty.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear evening. Increasing clouds overnight. Lows 30-35. Wind light W.
SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy with a slight chance of isolated light snow showers through early afternoon. Partly sunny later afternoon. Highs 40-45. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.
MONDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain, some mix possible well inland. Low 35. High 45.
TUESDAY: Sun/clouds. Snow shower late? Low 35. High 45.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 25. High 35.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 20. High 40.

7:31AM

As a large scale trough centered to the west tries to press eastward at times, colder shots of air will be introduced into southeastern New England. One such shot has already arrived in the wake of yesterday’s mild air. A second shot will arrive early Friday behind a disturbance which will be in the process of rapidly developing as it moves by the area, just offshore, overnight tonight to early Friday. This will bring a period of rain changing to snow, which will not hang around long, but will produce some minor accumulation. The problem: timing. Just enough snow may accumulate on some roads to make for briefly slippery travel for the Friday morning commute. Most of the accumulation from the event will be on unpaved surfaces, where up to an inch or 2 is possible. Most areas will see less than this, and a few higher elevations can see slightly more. By later Friday morning, it’s done and offshore, leaving the remainder of the day brighter, breezy, and chilly. This represents a slightly stronger version of the disturbance than was expected yesterday. Still relatively low-impact, but given time of year and time of day, something we cannot ignore.

The remainder of the outlook is basically unchanged. Dry and chilly Saturday with high pressure to the southwest and low pressure to the northeast of the region, bringing a gusty and chilly breeze across the region. Low pressure approaches later Sunday and then takes most of the day to pass through the region Monday as strung-out energy along a boundary. This still looks like largely a rain event, but some mix/snow cannot be ruled out over some interior areas so it will be watched. By Tuesday and Wednesday, a shot of the coldest air of the season so far is expected, but it may take until later Tuesday to actually arrive behind another front.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TODAY: Sunshine with a few high clouds through midday then increasing high clouds and less sun later. Highs around 50. Wind light W.
TONIGHT: Becoming cloudy. Rain developing west to east late evening, changing to snow west to east overnight, but only mixing Cape Cod. Lows around 30 interior higher elevations, 30s elsewhere. Wind variable to N up to 10 MPH.
FRIDAY: Cloudy start with snow/mix ending west to east by mid morning except later morning Cape Cod. Snow accumulation from traces to a slushy inch Cape Cod and immediate coast, around 1 to possibly 2 inches mainly unpaved surfaces elsewhere, locally over 2 inches in interior higher elevations. Sun/cloud mix remainder of day. Highs around 40. Wind NW 10-20 MPH and gusty.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 25. High 40.
SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Low 25. High 45.
MONDAY: Cloudy. Rain, some mix possible interior. Low 35. High 45.
TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 30. High 45.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 25. High 38.

7:20AM

As the hype-style news stories and headlines go on, we’ll just stick to forecasting and talking about the weather here. I do realize that some very cold air is heading down into parts of the USA and that some rather significant snowfall has already taken places in portions of the northern Plains to far northern Midwest, but this type of thing is not unprecedented, even if it does have a significant impact on the region it occurs. And just because somewhere in the northern Plains got dumped on with over a foot of snow doesn’t automatically mean that exact event is coming right to where you live, despite what many media will push you toward believing. So, what is really most likely to happen here during the next week, and why? Read on…

First, the fog. Temperature and dew point being the same is saturated air and in a situation with calm wind can lead to dense fog, which formed in much of southeastern New England overnight and will slowly dissipate during the day today. The low overcast with it will also try to break up as the day goes on. A storm passing east of the region will be too far away to have any significant impact. Also a cold front will be approaching from the west but will not have a whole lot of moisture to work with, so we’ll be left in the middle with mild and slowly drying air. Just a few rain showers may survive along the front to get into areas mainly north and west of Boston toward the end of the day. Some areas will see more sun than others by later in the day.

Tonight, the front will push through and will bring the first slug of colder air in. Thursday will feel quite a bit cooler than today, and will be. But another trough will cross the region Thursday night with a few snow showers as even colder air comes in, leading to a windy and chilly day Friday with sun and passing clouds.

The weekend will start bright and cool Saturday as high pressure dominates, but a low pressure area will then approach from the southwest later Sunday which will probably start bright, finish cloudy, and turn wet at night. It should be mild enough for mostly rain from the next system, but with colder air very nearby we’ll have to keep an eye on that for changes. The energy from that system should be strung out enough so that Monday will likely be a cloudy and damp day. But by Monday night another push from the west will kick that all out of here and introduce the coldest air of the season so far by Tuesday.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TODAY: Dense fog slowly dissipating with low clouds lingering during the morning and midday. Breaking low clouds with at least partial sun possible this afternoon. Slight chance of showers mainly NW of Boston later in the day. Highs upper 50s to middle 60s. Wind light variable.
TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows in the 30s. Wind W to NW 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Sunny morning. Variably cloudy afternoon. Highs in the 40s. Wind W up to 10 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Lows around 30. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs around 40. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 25. High 40.
SUNDAY: Increasing clouds. Chance of rain at night, possibly mix at start. Low 25. High 44.
MONDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain. Low 35. High 44.
TUESDAY: Sun and clouds. Windy. Low 25. High 38.

7:27AM

Quick forecast update. Full discussion on next post later today.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TODAY – VETERANS DAY: Mostly sunny morning. Partly cloudy afternoon. Highs around 60. Wind light S.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of drizzle after midnight. Wind light SE.
WEDNESDAY: Cloudy with a slight chance of drizzle and light rain through early afternoon. Mostly cloudy later but with a clearing trend western areas late. Highs in the 50s. Wind NE up to 10 MPH shifting to NW late.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 30. High 47.
FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of snow showers early. Low 30. High 44.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 25. High 40.
SUNDAY: Increasing clouds. Chance of light rain/snow at night. Low 30. High 45.
MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain. Low 35. High 45.

4:41PM

A very nice weekend: Chilly and bright Saturday, a bit more cloudiness but milder Sunday. And we have not been attacked by any Polar Vortex yet now have we? 😉

Let’s look ahead now to see what may be in store. That “dreaded” major cold outbreak and Polar Vortex you are again hearing about will be here, in the form of a turn to colder weather at the end of the coming week, that is, colder than the average temperature for this time of year but remembering that the averages are made up of the extremes of temperature recorded on any given date over a period of a few decades. So, in other words, an outbreak of chilly weather in November is not really abnormal at all. This particular pattern was just instigated by a strong typhoon turned extratropcial storm in the Pacific Ocean – again something that actually happens quite often. This one just happens to be a little more pronounced in strength than some have been in the past. Nothing outrageous there either.

So you may ask, “what does this all mean for the weather around here in the coming week?” FUNNY you should ask that, because here’s the answer:

A sliver of high pressure will be in control on Monday as the remains of a weak system to the northwest of the region and offshore moisture and energy push away to the east and northeast. This leaves southeastern New England in the middle, and though there may be some cloudiness to start the day, the sun will take over, and it will be seasonable to mild. A front to the west will star to approach on Tuesday and low pressure forming down the coast on an old frontal boundary will start to push to the north, but both of these systems should remain far enough away so that Tuesday, Veterans Day, is at least partly sunny and on the mild side. The two systems will close in by Wednesday, resulting in a mainly cloudy day, though it is not likely to be very wet as moisture will not be abundant for these systems to work with. Expect only a chance of a little light rain on Wednesday. By Thursday-Friday, the front from the west will push through and it will turn somewhat colder. But the brunt of the cold air with the first real push from the altered weather pattern will actually move more to the east across southern Canada and not come down into New England. An area of energy moving around the base of a trough of low pressure will toss some cloudiness into the region Thursday night into Friday when a few snow showers may occur, as it will likely be cold enough to support snow versus rain. NOT a big storm, so don’t let the word “snow” scare you. The trough passing through on Friday will reinforce the chilly air for next weekend, especially Saturday, which will likely be a windy and cold day, but dry. Sunday should continue on the chilly side, but the weather itself is a little more questionable, depending on the evolution and movement of low pressure and associated moisture to the southwest. It could be a day that starts bright and ends cloudy ahead of an approaching storm system, but at 7 days away, possible outcomes are several. A slower-evolving situation would allow most of the day to be bright versus cloudy.

As a little extra, I can see this leading to a wet weather system about November 17 followed by the coldest air of the season so far around November 18-19. Just something to keep in mind for now.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows in the 30s, coldest interior valleys, least cold near the shoreline. Wind W under 10 MPH.
MONDAY: Partly cloudy morning. Sunny afternoon. Highs in the 50s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows from the middle 30s interior valleys to lower 40s near the shoreline. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.
TUESDAY – VETERANS DAY: Partly cloudy. Highs around 60. Wind S 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Chance of drizzle. Slight chance of light rain. Low 40. High 50.
THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 30. High 47.
FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Slight chance of snow showers especially morning. Low 30. High 43.
SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 25. High 42.
SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Low 28. High 44.

3:40PM

It’s all connected, and sometimes it’s more apparent than other times. You’ve been hearing about how a western Pacific Super Typhoon (Nuri) turning into one of the strongest storms “ever observed” in the Bering Sea (and yes that’s true but we’ve only been “observing” for a short time) will impact the weather in the USA. Yes, this is all true as well, but doesn’t need necessarily to be made to sound like something that never has occurred, never should occur, and who knows if it will occur again. It’s just the Earth’s atmosphere, doing its job, and sometimes its reactions are powerful, other times more subtle.

Ok, enough editorializing, let’s just get to the weather. Well here it is…

Low pressure is pulling away into Canada, and in typical November fashion, we are left with blustery weather in its wake. Lots have clouds have dominated the day Friday with moderate and gusty northwesterly wind, chilly air, and a few sprinkles around after Thursday night’s rain moved away. As this low continues to distance itself from southeastern New England, drier air will flow in overnight, with slackening winds and a clearing sky, setting up cold conditions. Some areas will experience a hard freeze (especially inland suburban valley and rural areas). So, Saturday will start very chilly but the day will also start with plenty of sunshine. This sun will become more limited later in the day as a weak trough approaches from the west. It will be a cool day. The trough will pass by with cloudiness at night and some patchy rain shower activity. Temperatures will not fall that much and it will also be warming aloft so not expecting snow showers. By early Sunday, this trough will be moving offshore and the day will be mostly sunny to partly cloudy and a little milder.

Early next week is still looking the same. Weak high pressure is around Monday which will be fair and cool. High pressure moves offshore, low pressure tracks through the Great Lakes, and a cold front approaches from the west later Tuesday but remains far enough away so that the day should be fair and mild. Weather will be favorable for Veterans Day parades and ceremonies. By Wednesday, the front will be in the region, probably pushing through and slowing down a little so that cloudiness and a risk of rain showers will be present. Later next week, a more amplified trough will swing into the eastern US and will bring at least chilly weather. Will watch for any potential unsettled weather.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TONIGHT: Lots of clouds, isolated sprinkles of rain during the evening. Clearing overnight. Lows 25-35, coldest interior valleys. Wind NW 5-15 MPH gusting to 25 MPH in the evening, diminishing late.
SATURDAY: Lots of sun through midday, less sun later. Highs around 50. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Isolated rain showers. Lows around 40. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Limited sun very early, then more sunshine. Highs around 55. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 35. High 49.
TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 37. High 56.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Low 40. High 49.
THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Low 37. High 44.
FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Low 28. High 43.

5:15PM

Weather changes fairly frequently when the jet stream is nearby and this will be the case over the next several days. First, our mild spell of Tuesday and Wednesday is history as a cold front slides through the region. There has been no low level moisture for this front to work with so we’ve just had a lot of high cloudiness blotting out the sun at times Tuesday and especially Wednesday. A sharp clearing line which has been evident in the northwestern sky as seen from eastern MA and nearby areas during Wednesday afternoon will attempt to pass but then move back to the north. This will be because of a low pressure area riding up the front as it aligns itself with the jet stream, leading to a spell of wet weather Thursday afternoon to early Friday. Low pressure will likely pass right over southeastern New England by early Friday. Ahead of it the wind will turn more to the southeast and it will not be as mild on Thursday. Behind it, a stronger, gusty northwesterly wind flow will usher in drier air during Friday, but some cloudiness will likely hang around, including the threat of a shower.

Once we get to the weekend, it looks like the best day will be Saturday as high pressure will be in control. But a couple disturbances will approach Saturday night, one from the Great Lakes, another coming out of the Southeast and Mid Atlantic. It doesn’t look like these 2 areas will get together until they are beyond New England, so expect a minor impact from this system, in the form of clouds and rain showers, probably during the first half of Sunday.

Early next week, expect some cloudiness from a warm front Monday, a mild day ahead of a cold front Tuesday, and a possible unsettled day Wednesday as the front may be slow to clear the region. Colder air is also likely to filter in during Wednesday, but does not look like it will come in as a powerful blast at this time. Something to monitor in the days ahead.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TONIGHT: Clearing tries to push in from the NW then clouds push back to the N. Lows 40-45. Wind W up to 10 MPH dropping to near calm.
THURSDAY: Cloudy. Rain develops south to north during the morning through early afternoon then continues but becomes more showery southern areas late. Slight chance of thunder south of Boston late in the day. Highs 50-55. Wind near calm becoming E 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Widespread rain showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms, diminishing from south to north around midnight. Temperatures steady near 50. Wind SE 5-15 MPH shifting to S and increasing to 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy with rain showers early morning. Cloud/sun mix remainder of day. Highs 50-55. Wind SW 10-20 MPH early, then NW 15-25 MPH with higher gusts.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 36. High 49.
SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain showers morning. Partly cloudy afternoon. Low 40. High 50.
MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 33. High 48.
TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Low 39. High 58.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of light rain AM. Low 38. High 47.

7:34AM

No big changes this update. Cold front swings through today with lots of clouds but no rain. Front comes to a halt just to the southeast then comes back as low pressure moves along it Thursday through early Friday. This low should pass over or just west of southeastern New England by first thing Friday. A rain event results, and some heavy rain may fall Thursday evening. By late Friday, drying, windy, cooler weather is coming back and will lead to a nice Saturday as high pressure dominates. But things are moving right along and the next system brings a rain showers threat later Sunday (still some uncertainty on the overall impact of this system). This should be out of here by early next week with fair and seasonable weather at that time.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs in the 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows around 50. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Cloudy. Rain developing midday and afternoon. Highs around 60. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy with rain showers AM. Partly sunny PM. Low 48. High 56.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 38. High 48.
SUNDAY: Increasing clouds. PM rain showers. Low 37. High 53.
MONDAY: Partly sunny. Low 38. High 49.
TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Low 36. High 53.

7:37AM

Reminder to get out and vote today!
Also, in the comments below, vote for your favorite weather. Tell me your idea of a perfect weather day. Sunny and warm? All-out blizzard? It’s not a debate, just an opinion poll. 🙂

Expect an active weather pattern but not all bad weather. We turn milder today and Wednesday ahead as high pressure slips offshore and a cold front slowly approaches. This front will come through dry late Wednesday then the boundary will bend back to the west again as low pressure from the southwest rides along it and passes just west of southern New England Thursday night and early Friday. This will bring a “mild” rain event late Thursday to early Friday. After a shot of windy and cooler weather later Friday and a nice day Saturday as high pressure dominates, another system, possibly similar to the previous one, will arrive later Sunday, followed by improving weather again early next week.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TODAY: Clouds & sun. Highs in the 50s to near 60. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows in the 40s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Highs in the 60s to near 70. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.
THURSDAY: Cloudy. PM rain. Low 50. High 64.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. AM rain showers. Low 48. High 55.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 38. High 51.
SUNDAY: Increasing clouds. PM rain showers. Low 38. High 56.
MONDAY: Partly sunny. Early rain shower. Low 42. High 52.

8:43PM

Now that the double-barrel weekend storm is pretty much history and behaved pretty much as expected, it’s time to look ahead at the next 7 days.

High pressure builds in Monday, but still has to push against the departing second storm, so it will be windy and cool despite lots of sunshine. By Tuesday, high pressure is pushing offshore and a southwesterly flow will warm it up but with the warmer air coming in at all levels there will be some cloudiness. The warmer southwesterly air flow will continue Wednesday as a cold front approaches but washes out, resulting in a day that sees just a mix of sun and clouds but probably an absentee shower threat or just a few sprinkles and light showers that wander in by late in the day or at night. Previously, I was a little more optimistic about Thursday and Friday, thinking we’d get a stronger cold front through later Thursday and then turn windy/cool but drier on Friday. At this time it appears that system may be a little more amplified, that is, the trough will dig a little more to the south as it moves to the east, allowing a more significant low pressure area to develop and move more slowly. So for now will forecast a turn to wet weather Thursday continuing into Friday. By Saturday, this storm will be on its way into eastern Canada leaving the first part of the weekend windy and chilly but fair. Looking ahead to Sunday, weak high pressure should hold fair weather in, but confidence is low as we will continue to be in a somewhat volatile pattern and there have been some signals for stormy weather by early the following week. Will keep an eye on this.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows around 30 Wind NW 15-25 MPH gusting up to 40 MPH.
MONDAY: Sunny. Highs around 50. Wind NW 10-20 MPH gusting around 30 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows in the 30s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs around 60. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Slight chance of rain showers late. Low 53. High 67.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain in the afternoon. Low 48. High 61.
FRIDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain. Low 46. High 56.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Windy. Low 36. High 49.
SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 32. High 51.

1:50PM

REMINDER! Daylight Savings Time ends at 2AM Sunday! Remember to change clocks that don’t automatically reset back one hour before retiring Saturday evening or early Sunday morning. 🙂

The first 2 days of November (a weekend ironically), southeastern New England will be impacted by a 2 storms, the first on the first, the second on the second. By now we all know how this set-up took place and all the possibilities to go along with it, so we’ll skip that and get to the event. Here’s a breakdown…

Storm #1: Today, November 1.
Low pressure moves northeastward from off the Middle Atlantic Coast passing southeast of Nantucket by tonight. Rain will be widespread during this afternoon but will become more spotty by evening from south to north as the best support for rain lifts northward in advance of the low pressure center. Wind impacts will be greatest on Cape Cod and the Islands up to the South Shore with this low, with gusts above 40 MPH likely. It will become windy elsewhere, but not likely as strong. Scattered wind damage and power outages are possible especially in areas with the strongest gusts. Also there will be a risk of minor to moderate coastal flooding in prone areas especially around high tide early this evening. Though torrential rains are not expected, they will be moderate to at times heavy, enough to result in localized flooding especially in poor drainage areas. This will be enhanced by areas where storm drains are blocked by fallen leaves. Also use caution while driving over roads that may be covered with wet leaves which not only make the road slippery but make lanes difficult to see.

Storm #2: Tomorrow, November 2.
This low pressure area will be forming off the coast of North Carolina and Virginia later today while its leading partner passes by New England. It will then race northeastward passing a little further east than storm #1. However, this low will end up stronger than the first, and wind impacts may be more significant in the morning hours of Sunday (after midnight to midday). Wind gusts in areas that were prone to 40 MPH or greater can see gusts of 50 MPH or greater as this storm passes. Additional wind damage and power outages are possible. Also, this storm will have a larger wind field so gusts of 40 MPH or higher will extend back across much of RI, eastern MA, and southeastern NH, with isolated to scattered damage and outages also possible in these areas. Some trees still having leaves on them make them more vulnerable to strong wind gusts with wet ground that is not frozen yet at this time of year. Precipitation with this second system is a little more tricky. The bulk of the heaviest should remain over Cape Cod and just offshore of eastern MA and NH though may extend westward to clip some of these areas for a few hours pre-dawn Sunday. This is when it will be a close call between rain and flipping to snow as colder air is dragged down from above. However, conditions will be marginal as relatively warm ocean water temperatures will modify the air as the wind blows over the water before coming into southeastern New England. Also, with heaviest precipitation short-lived or just offshore, the chances of dragging enough cold air down for meaningful snow drop off. Nevertheless, know that there is the possibility of mixing or even a change to snow anywhere but favoring high elevations and north of Boston. If accumulation occurs it would most likely be in these areas and be fairly short-lived. Will monitor for any changes. Expect dry air to win out by Sunday afternoon but clouds to hang on for a while and wind to remain fairly strong as it shifts more to the northwest with time behind the departing storm. For the Patriots/Broncos game in Foxboro, kicking off at 4:25PM, expect temperatures in the lower 40s at kickoff, upper 30s by the 4th quarter, a clearing sky, but a strong and gusty NW wind taking wind chill temperatures near to below freezing at times.

Next Week (Monday-Friday)…
High pressure moves in Monday – a bright, dry, but chilly day.
Warming trend first aloft then at the surface Tuesday – a nice day but more high and middle clouds.
Cold front approaches Wednesday but the trough associated with it will be weak and lifting more through the Great Lakes into southeastern Canada than charging into New England, so the front will generally fall apart as it moves in – result is sun/clouds but mild, slight shower threat at night.
Second cold front approaches Thursday, but expected it to hold off until late day, but with a potent trough associated with it coming right at New England via the Great Lakes, this system may pack a punch with some risk of heavy showers/thunderstorms.
The fast-moving system from Thursday is exiting by Friday, leaving a gusty northwest wind in its wake, bringing much cooler air into southeastern New England but with a return of dry weather.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
THIS AFTERNOON: Overcast with rain. Areas of fog. Temperatures ranging from the lower 40s higher elevations inland to the lower 50s Cape Cod. Wind N to NE 15-30 MPH with higher gusts, strongest gusts coastal areas and higher elevations south of Boston.
TONIGHT: Overcast. Areas of fog. Periods of rain evening. Steadier rain overnight returns to mainly Cape Cod but may extend into parts of eastern MA/NH possibly mixing with or turning to snow. Minor accumulation not out of the question if this occurs. Lows in the 30s to around 40. Wind NE to N 15-35 MPH, strongest overnight when gusts of 35-50 MPH are likely, with greater than 50 MPH gusts in coastal areas south of Boston.
SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy morning with rain/snow early favoring southeastern MA and Cape Cod, then periods of lighter rain through midday Cape Cod. Sun may develop west to east before the day is over. Highs in the 40s. Wind N to NW 20-30 MPH with higher gusts.
MONDAY: Sunny. Low 30. High 48.
TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Low 40. High 58.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Slight chance of showers evening. Low 50. High 68.
THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Showers/thunderstorms likely late day. Low 60. High 70.
FRIDAY: Clouds/sun. Windy. Low 40. High 50.

1:27AM

You’ll get plenty of over-analyzing of the impending foul weather situation wherever you turn for information, so for this post I’m going to simplify the analysis and just explain how I think it’s going to evolve, and what will result in southeastern New England. And we’ll look beyond this as well, of course, out through 7 days. So here goes…

High pressure centered north of New England starts to give way and retreat to the northeast today. While this is going on, low pressure dropping southeastward from the Great Lakes toward the Mid Atlantic will transfer its energy to a frontal boundary offshore. The result will be a series of low pressure areas along this boundary, all moving northeastward over the water southeast to east of New England beginning in the early hours of Saturday and continuing through the late hours of Sunday. The first wave of low pressure will be far enough offshore to keep any steady and significant precipitation out at sea, but an onshore flow with plenty of moisture will bring lots of clouds and the chance of some drizzle and light rain to the region mainly after midnight Friday night into Saturday morning. I’m still expecting dry but cool conditions for Friday evening Halloween activities. A second low pressure wave will develop a little more and come just a little closer, bringing a better chance of rain to southeastern and eastern MA, possibly as far west as RI, and into southeastern NH as well. Most of this will occur during Saturday afternoon and evening. Though we will be feeling a chill, the air will still be too warm to support any snow, so this event will be rain. The final low pressure area will become the strongest, but will likely pass too far east to bring steady or heavy rain with the exception of Cape Cod early Sunday. Only rain showers and possibly snow showers will take place over the remainder of the region as cold air continues to work in from the north. At the same time it will also be drying out, and this may limit the rain/snow shower activity. What will take place is increasing northeast to north winds during the course of the weekend so that by Sunday much of the region is blustery with very gusty winds, strongest in higher elevations and in the coastal plain. By Sunday night, we’ll clear out as the final storm moves away.

Monday will be a bright but chilly day as low pressure continues to distance itself from New England and high pressure tries to build in from the west, the core of it passing southwest of New England. This high will then move offshore allowing a warm-up to take place Tuesday and Wednesday. A cold front will approach from the north by Thursday with some increase in clouds and a chance of rain showers. At 7 days away, this is subject to some change.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TODAY: Sunshine followed by increasing cloudiness. Highs in the 50s. Wind E up to 10 MPH.
HALLOWEEN EVENING: Mostly cloudy. Temperatures 45-50. Wind E up to 10 MPH.
TONIGHT: Cloudy. Areas of drizzle and light rain mainly after midnight favoring coastal areas. Lows 40-45. Wind ENE 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY: Cloudy. Areas of fog and drizzle and a chance of light rain through midday. Better chance of rain afternoon especially southeastern to eastern MA and southeastern NH. Temperatures steady in the 40s. Wind NE 10-20 MPH, higher gusts coastal areas.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain likely in the evening, heaviest near eastern coastal areas. Lows 35-40, lower 40s South Coast / Cape Cod. Wind NE to N 15-25 MPH, higher gusts especially coastal areas.
SUNDAY: Cloudy with rain likely Cape Cod through midday. Mostly cloudy to partly sunny elsewhere with scattered rain showers early then only a slight chance of rain/snow showers during midday and afternoon. Highs in the 40s. Wind N 15-25 MPH with gusts 35-45 MPH, possibly higher some coastal areas and higher elevations.
MONDAY: Sunny. Low 30. High 50.
TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Low 40. High 60.
WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 50. High 70.
THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of PM rain showers. Low 55. High 65.

7:42AM

Quick update which is basically a copy/paste of parts of the previous discussion and a few new thoughts going forward.

The repeat portion…

Today… An area of high pressure will build across southeastern Canada and northern New England and supply our region with fair, seasonably cool, and dry weather.

Friday daytime… High pressure starts to retreat allowing sunshine to eventually give way to clouds advancing from the west as low pressure in the Great Lakes dives to the southeast toward the northern Middle Atlantic States.

Friday nighttime (Halloween)… Clouds thicken but it looks like any rainfall from the low pressure area to the west and south will hold off until after midnight. Evening activities (trick or treat, parties) will be met with lots of clouds and temperatures in the upper 40s in most locations, but not too much wind. The late-night crowd may be heading home in some rain.

Weekend… 2-part storm with part 1 being the closer redevelopment of the low from the Great Lakes producing some periods of light rain and drizzle mainly Saturday afternoon and evening, and part 2 being the evolution and deepening of a second storm too far east to bring steady rain to anywhere except probably Cape Cod but a gusty wind and a draw-down of colder air for the rest of the region. The snow threat is out of the equation with this scenario, which seemed most likely all the while. Cannot rule out a few rain/snow showers around the back side of the low at some point on Sunday over southeastern NH and eastern MA.

Early next week… Fair with a warming trend, though still on the chilly side Monday with the meaningful warm up more for Election Day Tuesday and Wednesday.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TODAY: Partly cloudy to mostly sunny. Highs 55-60. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 35-40 except lower 40s coast. Wind light NW.
FRIDAY: Sunshine followed by increasing clouds. Highs in the 50s. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT – HALLOWEEN: Lots of clouds evening with trick-or-treat temperatures 45-50 and a light breeze. Overnight cloudy with a chance of light rain or drizzle especially near the coast, lows 40-45, and wind turning light NE.
SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Periods of rain/drizzle, especially afternoon and especially eastern and southeastern areas. Highs 45-50. Wind NE 10-20 MPH with higher gusts especially coast.
SUNDAY: Lots of clouds, a rain or snow shower possible. Low 35. High 45.
MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 30. High 45.
TUESDAY – ELECTION DAY: Partly cloudy. Low 40. High 55.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Low 45. High 60.

7:48PM

A whole lot will be happening in the weather during the next 7 days, and here is a look ahead at what the volatile pattern is able to do and how I think it will play out…

Tonight… We have seen a warm front push into but not completely though the region today. Though it was a fairly nice day despite some cloudiness, and many areas were in the 60s, there was an area of 50s in northeastern MA and southern NH where the front never crossed. Tonight, this boundary may remain nearly stationary, and it will be a little cooler here with a light east wind while the remainder of the region sees a light wind from the south. Where the wind is east and the air cooler, watch for low clouds and areas of fog. Elsewhere, lots of clouds will be the rule due to continued moistening of the atmosphere at all levels ahead of a cold front.

Wednesday… This cold front will be moving west to east through southeastern New England, with lots of cloudiness but mild air ahead of it. The cloudiness will actually keep the temperatures from reaching what would have been their maximum potential, well into the 70s. Instead middle 60s to lower 70s will be common. Ahead of and along the cold front, some scattered showers are expected. Though the activity is not expected to be widespread, there is the potential for a few isolated downpours and even thunder. Most areas will see light rain showers or nothing at all. At night, the front will finally push through and clearing, cooler conditions will move in from west to east.

Thursday… An area of high pressure will build across southeastern Canada and northern New England and supply our region with fair, seasonably cool, and dry weather.

Friday daytime… High pressure starts to retreat allowing sunshine to eventually give way to clouds advancing from the west as low pressure in the Great Lakes dives to the southeast toward the northern Middle Atlantic States.

Friday nighttime (Halloween)… Clouds thicken but it looks like any rainfall from the low pressure area to the west and south will hold off until after midnight. Evening activities (trick or treat, parties) will be met with lots of clouds and temperatures in the upper 40s in most locations, but not too much wind. The late-night crowd may be heading home in the rain.

Weekend… You’ve all been hearing the talk, the speculation, and maybe even seen the very-unnecessary posting of model snowfall forecast maps days in advance of what is only at this point a potential impact by a developing storm interacting with cold air moving into the region. That recipe is not automatic snowstorm at any time of year, even mid Winter. But given that it’s the end of October now and this event will be taking place during the first 2 days of November, there is even more doubt via climatology. We have a warm ocean, models that are forecasting without “knowing” how warm some of the lower levels of the atmosphere are, and just the uncertainty in how it will play out, detail-wise, which is only normal for this many days in advance. So as I did in the previous discussion, I will leave this far shy of anything that resembles a confident final outlook. Here’s what I do know: The low pressure system passing west and south of New England on Friday night is expected to trigger the development of a new storm off the northern Middle Atlantic Coast by Saturday which will then move northeastward an unknown number of miles south and east of Cape Cod and eventually east of northern New England by the end of the weekend, intensifying all the while. There will be impact, but to what degree is unknown. Potentials include precipitation ranging from rain to snow and an increase in wind. More certain is the fact it will be turning colder. There will be much more to say on this in time, but an early idea is that the evolution of the new storm will take place just too far east for direct major impact, and that we will have a period of rain at some point then a more intermittent rain to snow shower episode along with gusty wind. The Patriots will be playing a game in Foxboro MA that kicks off at 4:25PM on Sunday, and an early outlook for this game would be breaking clouds, moderate to strong north to northwest winds, and temperatures in the 30s, if the early scenario I foresee does come to be. Though this is technically an “afternoon game” it will largely be played as a night game, given that sunset is shortly after 4:30PM. Why? Because we switch the clocks back to Standard Time at 2AM on Sunday.

Early next week… Fair weather returns, though Monday will likely be chilly and breezy before we see a warm-up for Tuesday, Election Day.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TONIGHT: Lots of clouds. Some areas of fog possible northeastern MA and southeastern NH. Lows around 50 northeastern MA and southeastern NH, 50s elsewhere. Wind light E in northeastern MA and southeastern NH shifting to S late, S under 10 MPH elsewhere.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers midday and afternoon. Slight risk of brief downpours with thunder. Highs in the 60s South Coast / Cape Cod, lower 70s elsewhere. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Lots of clouds and a lingering shower possible early, then clearing. Lows in the 40s. Wind shifting to NW 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs in the 50s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Sunny start, increasing clouds, cloudy at night with a chance of rain developing overnight. Lows upper 30s to 40. Highs in the 50s daytime. Temps 45-50 trick-or-treat time, lower 40s late night.
SATURDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain or rain showers, may mix with or turn to snow or snow showers night, especially well northwest of Boston. Temperatures steady in the 40s through the day falling into the 30s at night.
SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy with a chance of snow/rain showers. Lows in the 30s. Highs around 40. Windy.
MONDAY: Sun & clouds, more sun late. Breezy. Lows around 30. Highs around 50.
TUESDAY – ELECTION DAY: Partly cloudy. Lows in the 30s. Highs around 60.

7:33AM

This is a forecast update only. The discussion is largely the same other than slightly slower timing. Full discussion and another update later today.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TODAY: Partly sunny. Highs in the 60s. Wind S up to 10 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows in the 50s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny morning. Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain showers afternoon. Highs around 70. Wind SW 10-20 MPH and gusty.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 44. High 57.
FRIDAY: Increasing clouds. Low 38. High 55.
SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Low 35. High 45.
SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Low 32. High 40.
MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 30. High 50.