7:45 P.M.

The “Super Moon” has risen! Yes, I’m sure you’ve heard the hype about disasters all supposed to take place today because of this moon, a little closer to the Earth than it has been in a while. The only impact from this will be tides that are slightly higher than average. The rest? Nonsense. So, the sky has cleared nicely over most of the area and we’ll have a great view of this full moon tonight. Enjoy!

The Weather…

Back to reality. Colder air has moved in behind the warmth of the last couple days. Often at this time of year we’ll be teased with a warm day or 2, only to be back to the chill fairly quickly. But this return to chill is a return to a new weather pattern, or an old weather pattern, depending on how you look at it. For several days now I’ve been advertising a return to a colder than normal weather pattern, including at least one more snow threat. This appears to be taking shape now. I will go into more detail about this pattern on tomorrow’s look at the week ahead. For now, let’s look at a quick updated forecast for the Boston area…

TONIGHT: Clear. Low ranging from near 20 inland valleys to near 30 along the shoreline. Wind north under 10 mph.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. High in the middle 40s. Wind north up to 10 mph.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Increasing cloudiness. Low in the upper 20s. Wind light variable.

MONDAY: Overcast. Rain likely, may begin as a mix away from the coast in the early morning. High in the middle 40s. Wind south up to 10 mph.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy and windy. High in the middle 40s.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Chance of rain/mix late day and snow at night. High in the upper 30s.

THURSDAY: Cloudy. Chance of mix/snow. High in the middle 30s.

2:40 AM

As is often the case, some of the final days of Winter will be mild, and the first days of Spring will be colder. It’s just a typical scenario in the climate of New England. No big surprises.

In the short term, we’re warming up, with a bright & mild St. Pat’s day just getting underway as the last of the patchy fog burns off during this morning. A sea breeze along the immediate coast this afternoon may put the brakes on the warm up at some point this afternoon.  All areas will be warm for several hours on Friday as a stronger west wind arrives just ahead of a cold front. This front will cross the region, with a few showers, and a return to chilly air for Friday night and the weekend. A wave of low pressure on the cold front will pass mostly south of the region on Saturday but may hold some clouds in during the morning.

Forecast details for the Boston area…

TODAY: Mostly sunny. High 55 to 60 though temperatures may drop back to the 40s along the immediate coast in the afternoon. Wind W up to 10 mph except local afternoon seabreezes.

TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. Low 40 to 45. Wind W 5 to 15 mph.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy with isolated showers. High 60 to 65. Wind W 15 to 25 mph.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Low 35 to 40. Wind NW 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts.

SATURDAY: Variably cloudy in the morning then becoming mostly sunny in the afternoon. High in the upper 40s.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. High in the middle 40s.

A quick peek down the road into next week… Potential colder/stormy pattern returns. Cannot rule out a snow event in the March 22-27 window. Will be keeping an eye on trends.

1:00 AM

Boston Area Forecast

TODAY… Cloudy with rain developing during the morning, peaking in the middle of the day, ending during the afternoon. Breaks in the clouds and even a little sun is possible by the early evening hours. High in the upper 40s. Wind SE to S 5 to 15 mph.

TONIGHT… Clearing. Low 32 to 37. Wind W 5 to 15 mph.

THURSDAY… Mostly sunny. High 55 to 60. Wind SW 10 to 20 mph.

THURSDAY NIGHT… Partly cloudy. Low 4o to 45. Wind SW 5 to 15 mph.

FRIDAY… Mostly cloudy. High 60 to 65. Wind SW 10 to 20 mph.

SATURDAY… Partly sunny. High in the lower 50s.

SUNDAY… Mostly sunny. High in the middle 40s.

915PM (original) / 1215AM update to remove TONIGHT portion & tweak MONDAY and also add a note about visible planets…

Well it’s that time again. Another week over. Another about to begin. And time to take a look at the weather for the next 7 days.

The weather pattern this week is fairly straightforward, with a fast-flowing jet stream bringing a few disturbances across the region. These should come through Monday (an upper level system with cold air aloft causing lots of clouds), Wednesday (a low pressure area from the southwest with a period of rain), and Friday (a low pressure area passing north of the area and dragging a cold front through with clouds and a chance of showers). High pressure will dominate Tuesday & Thursday with fair weather for the Ides & St. Patrick’s Day. An early peek at next weekend indicates high pressure building in with dry, chilly weather, with a windy start Saturday and a more tranquil Sunday.

NOTE: If the sky clears early enough Monday evening, looking to the west about 45 minutes to 1 hour and 15 minutes after sunset you will be able to see Jupiter & Mercury. Mercury will be to the lower right of the easily-spotted brighter Jupiter. You need to be able to see lower to the horizon to observe Mercury. Binoculars will help. Hopefully the clouds will get out of here in time.

The details for the Boston area…

MONDAY: Sun mixed with clouds, most sun through late morning, more clouds in the afternoon with there is a very slight chance of an isolated rain or snow shower. Sun may increase by the 600PM hour just prior to the 649PM sunset. High in the lower 40s. Wind N 5 to 15 mph.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Low in the lower 20s inland valleys to the upper 20s coast. Wind NW to W under 10 mph.

TUESDAY: Sunny. High in the middle to upper 40s. Wind light variable.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Low in the middle 30s. Wind S under 10 mph.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Chance of light rain in the morning, may begin as light snow inland. Steadier rain in the afternoon. High in the middle 40s. Wind SE 5 to 15 mph.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with rain ending early, followed by clearing. Low in the middle 30s. Wind W 5 to 15 mph.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. High in the middle 50s. Wind W 5 to 15 mph.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Low in the upper 30s to lower 40s. Wind SW 10 to 15 mph.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain showers. High in the upper 50s. Wind SW 15 to 25 mph.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy & windy. High in the middle 40s.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. High in the upper 40s.

850PM

TONIGHT: Cloudy.  Slight chance of very light snow though most areas will remain dry. Low 30 to 35.  Wind east 10 to 20 mph.

THURSDAY: Cloudy. Slight chance of very light snow in the morning. Slight chance of very light rain in the afternoon. High 40 to 45. Wind east 10 to 20 mph gusting to 30 mph.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain developing. Temperature steady 40 to 45. Wind southeast 10 to 20 mph with gusts around 30 mph.

FRIDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain. High 45 to 50. Wind east 10 to 15 mph shifting to south late.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered rain showers. High in the lower 50s.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated rain showers. High in the upper 40s.

1200AM

Windy/colder weather swept into the Boston area Monday afternoon & night as the storm that produced some heavy rain departed the region. Heavy snow/sleet/ice was confined to extreme western New England and a good portion of northern New England. Areas of flooding were reported in western and parts of central MA as heavy rain combined with melting snow. Around dawn on Monday, temperatures ranged from the middle 20s in the Berkshires to the lower 50s in Boston. The warmer air is long gone, and the entire region was cold, clear, & windy by Monday evening.

High pressure will build across the region today with dry & chilly weather. This high will move offshore on Wednesday, allowing clouds to begin moving in ahead of the next storm. This system will likely take a track west of New England Thursday with waves of low pressure developing along a slowly advancing frontal boundary Thursday night into Friday. The setup may be similar to the one we just went through, with heaviest precipitation in western and northern New England, including some snow/ice. Rain is more likely further east and south, including the Boston area.

Looking ahead, a couple of weak weather systems will bring some lingering unsettled weather for the upcoming weekend, though major storminess is not expected.

Boston area forecast…

TODAY: Mostly sunny. High in the lower 40s. Wind north 5 to 15 mph.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear.  Low ranging from the middle teens inland valley areas to the middle 20s along the coast. Wind light variable.

WEDNESDAY: Increasing clouds. High in the upper 30s. Wind east up to 10 mph.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Low in the lower 30s. Wind east up to 10 mph.

THURSDAY: Cloudy. High in the lower 40s. Wind southeast up to 10 mph.

FRIDAY: Rain likely. High in the 40s.

SATURDAY & SUNDAY: Chance of rain & snow showers. Highs in the upper 30s to lower 40s.

747PM

After a week of up and down temperatures (a mild start, a cold middle – upper 20s Thursday, and a mild end – 50s-lower 60s this weekend), what is in store for tonight & the coming week? Read on to find out!

TONIGHT: Steadiest rain falling well outside Route 495 at this time will slowly move eastward into the Boston area, but the heaviest will not likely occur in the Boston Metro area until after midnight. Only scattered showers are expected in the Boston area during the next several hours, though a few of them may be briefly moderate to heavy. Thunder is possible during the overnight hours. It will slowly cool from the lower 50s to the upper & middle 40s throughout eastern MA & southern NH. Winds will blow from the southeast to south up to 15 mph though some higher gusts are possible in coastal areas.

The Week Ahead…

Low pressure will cross the area from southwest to northeast during Monday morning with one final burst of rain and possible thunder early. As it moves away, wrap-around moisture will hold clouds in for much of the day along with scattered rain showers changing to showers of sleet & snow as colder air works in. Even though far western and especially northern New England will see major snow accumulation out of this system tonight & early Monday, I don’t expect any accumulation of sleet or snow in the Boston area, other than a short-lived dusting of snow in a few locations. It will simply be too late to get enough precipitation once the cold air is in place.

High pressure building eastward will result in dry but chilly weather Monday night through Wednesday. The next storm system will approach on Thursday, but some signs suggest the onset of this system may be very slow and not occur til Thursday night or Friday. Odds favor rain from this system at this time. Looking into next weekend, it looks cool and possibly unsettled. We’ll have to see how a few areas of energy heading through the Great Lakes & Northeast interact with each other.

Detailed forecast…

MONDAY: Rain & possible thunder especially north of Boston early. Mostly cloudy for the remainder of the day with scattered rain showers, changing to showers of sleet & snow from west to east during the afternoon. Little or no accumulation of sleet & snow expected. Temperature falling slowly through the 40s through early afternoon, then into the upper to middle 30s mid through late afternoon. Wind south 10 to 20 mph, shifting to northwest with gusts as high as 30 mph.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Low 20 to 25. Wind north 10 to 15 mph.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. High 40 to 45. Wind north 10 to 20 mph.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Low 15 to 20 inland, 20 to 25 coast. Wind north 5 to 15 mph.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. High 43 to 48. Wind variable up to 10 mph.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Low 25 to 30. Wind light variable.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. High in the 40s.

FRIDAY: Chance of rain. High in the 40s.

430PM

The changeable La Nina weather pattern continues, and shows no signs of breaking down. Nothing is locked in. Temperatures go up and down, frequent weather systems visit, but nothing hangs around for very long. At the moment I suppose this is a good thing, because we’re still not seeing prolonged rain events which would lead to major flooding. Our heavier rains have been brief and have not had a chance to really kick off significant problems.

A cold but sunny Thursday is winding down, but a very cold night is ahead. As winds drop off and high pressure moves overhead, a mostly clear sky will provide excellent radiational cooling conditions, and the temperature will plunge. For anyone unfamiliar with the term “radiational cooling”, it refers to the warmth at the ground radiating upward back up, since warmer air rises. This takes place easily on clear, calm, dry nights, and even more efficiently when snowcover is present.

The next weather change will already be underway as Friday dawns. It will still be a chilly day, though not as cold as today was. But clouds will advance after some sunshine to start the day. This will be ahead of warmer air moving in, which will do so above us first. Before it makes it in at the surface, a period of snow or snow showers may occur on Friday night. Clouds will dominate Saturday, but precipitation is expected to be hard to find, other than perhaps a rain or snow shower early in the day. Warmer air will move in during the day. A mild Saturday night is expected, and a very mild day on Sunday will start dry but end wet, as a slow-moving cold front approaches from the west, with a couple waves of low pressure on it. This front will move across the region Sunday night into Monday, and one final wave of low pressure on Monday will likely cause a period of significant rain. I do not expect major flooding from this, as the heaviest rain should last only several hours in any one location, and may occur in the areas where there is less snow on the ground (southeastern MA & RI). I’ll fine-tune this as it gets closer. With colder air coming in at that time, we also have to watch for a possible switch to mix or snow before the Monday storm is over.

Looking ahead…

Dry & chilly weather is expected to return Tuesday into Wednesday of next week, with the next storm system due about Thursday. Early indications are that this will be a mild storm, with rain.

Boston Area Forecast…

TONIGHT: Mostly clear and very cold. Low ranging from around 5 over inland valleys to near 15 in the urban centers and along the immediate coast. A few deeper valleys may approach zero! Wind NW diminishing to under 10 mph then becoming calm.

FRIDAY: Increasing clouds. High 33 to 38. Wind light southeast.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. A period of light snow is possible but little accumulation is expected. Low 27 to 32 but temperatures may rise back through the 30s overnight. Wind light south shifting to southwest.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. High 45 to 50. Wind southwest 5 to 15 mph.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Low 35 to 40. Wind southwest 5 to 15 mph.

SUNDAY: Cloudy. Rain developing from west to east during the afternoon. High 50 to 55. Wind south southwest increasing to 10 to 20 mph.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain likely. Low 40 to 45.

MONDAY: Cloudy. Rain likely, may mix with or turn to sleet/snow by late in the day. Temperature falling into the 30s.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy & windy. High in the upper 30s.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. High in the lower 40s.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. High in the upper 40s.

100AM

We’ll be riding the temperature roller coaster for the first several days of March. I’m not a great fan of the lamb/lion saying for March, however the month did come in on the lamb side with a breezy but pleasant Tuesday, with lots of sunshine. But as you know, things have been moving along, and rapid weather changes will mark the next several days.

Synopsis…

Wednesday… A brief warmup takes places through early to mid afternoon along with a gusty southwest wind. A strong cold front sweeps across the region later in the afternoon & early at night, bringing the threat of a rain or snow shower, possibly a heavier squall of either rain or snow, or rain changing to snow, and a risk of thunder. This will usher in an arctic airmass later at night, when temperatures will plunge as will wind chills, with strong northwest winds.

Thursday… Bright but bitter. Pure arctic air will dominate as high pressure builds south southeast from Canada. Winds will be gusty to start the day but will settle down later.

Friday… Very cold early as the arctic high pressure slides east of the region. Clouds will advance as a warm front approaches from the southwest. This front may produce a period of snow at night.

Weekend… Much milder! Not totally sunny, but other than spotty precipitation very early Saturday and a chance of rain by late Sunday, the bulk of the weekend will be dry.

Forecast for Boston area…

TODAY: Partly sunny. A passing rain shower after 2PM. High 42 to 47. Wind southwest increasing to 15 to 25 mph with gusts over 30 mph.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy with a passing rain or snow shower possible early, including a slight risk of briefly heavy precipitation with thunder, followed by clearing, windy, and much colder. Low 10 to 15. Wind shifting to northwest 15 to 25 mph with gusts over 30 mph. Wind chill near zero overnight.

THURSDAY: Sunny. High 20 to 25. Wind northwest 15 to 25 mph in the morning, diminishing in the afternoon.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clear. Low 5 to 10 inland, 11 to 16 coast and urban centers. Wind light variable.

FRIDAY: Increasing clouds. High 30 to 35. Wind light southeast.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with a period of snow. Low 25 to 30. Wind light east.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain or snow showers in the morning. High in the 40s.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain late in the day. High in the 50s.

11:00 PM

After a Saturday night & Sunday morning snowstorm, which dropped generally 3 to 6 inches of snow on the Boston area, more in some areas to the north, we are about to get hit with another storm for the final day of February on Monday. The air remains quite cold behind the weekend storm system, and with warm air coming in above us, the setup for icing is there. Fortunately, I think that the main precipitation will not reach eastern MA and southern NH until mid morning, with only some freezing drizzle before that. This should spare the region significant icing. However, with some freezing drizzle possible, any untreated surfaces may become slick for a while.

The low pressure area responsible for the stormy Monday will track northeastward across central New England by late Monday afternoon or early Monday evening. There will be a sharp contrast in temperatures, much like Friday’s storm, but a bit further north this time. Temperatures may reach or exceed 50 in areas to the south of Boston, and this warmer air may briefly get into the Boston area as well. To the north, temperatures will reach the upper 30s to lower 40s.

The heaviest precipitation Monday should be in the form of rain in most of the region from MA into southern NH, at the end of the morning through early afternoon. After this, rain will become more spotty, though there will be some heavier showers around and even a risk of thunder as the low center moves through.

When we get to Monday night, the last of the rain, including some heavier showers and possible thunderstorms, will be occurring south of Boston through the Cape Cod area, but all of this will slide offshore by late evening. Colder air will flow in behind the departing storm. A disturbance dropping southward from northern New England may kick off a few snow showers later at night, along with strong, gusty winds. These winds will continue into Tuesday morning before diminishing during the afternoon as high pressure builds over the region. Tuesday will be a bright day with wall to wall sunshine.

High pressure will push east of the region on Wednesday, and a disturbance approaching from the west will spread clouds into the region. This disturbance will push through the region Wednesday night with a few rain and snow showers possible. Even a brief squall of snow, or rain changing to snow, may occur in the evening. Behind this disturbance, a shot of cold/windy weather will last from very late Wednesday night through Thursday. Dry weather will dominate the region on Thursday.

Expect a bright but more tranquil day on Friday, but with a very cold start followed by a milder afternoon as high pressure cresting over the region begins to slide to the east later in the day. Things try to get a little more complicated as we move into the weekend. There are some uncertainty on timing of the next approaching weather system, being so far away. But for the moment, I am leaning toward a slowing of the progressing of weather systems, allowing us to get through most of next weekend storm-free, with milder temperatures.

Detailed Boston area forecast…

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Patchy freezing drizzle possible near the coast. Scattered areas of fog. Lows ranging from the upper 10s in the Merrimack Valley to the upper 20s along the coast south of Boston.  Wind light northeast to east.

MONDAY: Overcast. Freezing drizzle possible in all areas early with some icy spots possible. Rain developing from southwest to northeast in the morning, and may begin as freezing rain and sleet away from the coast before changing to plain rain by late morning, lastly in the Merrimack Valley & southern NH. Rain may be heavy at times late morning to early afternoon, then becoming more showery but still locally heavy for the rest of the afternoon. Some thunder is possible in heavier periods of rain. Highs ranging from the upper 30s to lower 40s across southern NH and the Merrimack Valley to the lower and middle 50s in areas south of Boston. Wind east to southeast 5 to 15 mph, may shift to southwest for a while near and south of Boston, gusting over 20 mph.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy through 1:00 AM with any lingering rain or showers mainly near and south of Boston coming to an end, and a chance of a few snow showers 10:00 PM to 1:00 AM. Clearing following. Lows in the upper 10s to lower 20s. Wind west 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts.

TUESDAY: Sunny. High in the upper 30s. Wind northwest 10 to 20 mph but gusting over 30 mph.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Low ranging from near 10 in deeper valleys to the middle 20s along the coast. Wind light variable.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. High in the lower 40s. Wind south 5 to 15 mph.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with a few rain and snow showers. Low in the upper 20s. Wind southwest 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts shifting to northwest.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. High in the middle 30s.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. High in the lower 40s.

1155AM

Hi all!

Yesterday I upgraded my forecast to 3-6 inches for the Boston area and points north for this event, and realized I failed to post it HERE!! Oops!

Apologies for that. Better updates from here on. 🙂

Anyway, this event is winding down. Coming back in a while with an update for the coming week!

Have a great Sunday everyone!

340PM

Good afternoon! We have seen the worst of the precipitation from storm #1. My forecast on it was not completely accurate, as up to a few inches of snow fell close to 495 during the first part of the storm. I expected this to occur on the back edge of the storm versus the front side, but the low pressure area cut a little further south than I thought, keeping even  Boston in the chilly air. However, despite being on the colder side of the storm track, there was enough warm air aloft to make the bulk of the precipitation fall as rain in the Boston area, after a slushy coating of snow early this morning in the NW suburbs (and of course a bit more to the NW of there) before rain took over.

This rain/snow line is now on the move back to the southeast, toward Boston, but is in a race with the back edge of the heavier precipitation. The precip. will probably win the race, meaning as it turns cold enough to snow in the Boston area at the end of the afternoon into this evening, precipitation will be lighter and more scattered, with just periods of snow and minor accumulations (mainly under 1 inch). Nevertheless, the temperature drop can result in some slippery surfaces, especially smaller roads, walks, and driveways, so use caution when traveling later today and tonight.

The warm air did make it into areas south of Boston, with temperatures jumping in the lower and even middle 50s over southeastern MA down toward Cape Cod and Rhode Island. These areas also saw strong southwest winds which gusted into the 50 to 60 mph range, causing some localized damage.

In heavier rain areas, flooding has not been a major issue, with mostly minor flooding in localized areas. The quick movement of this storm has prevented more significant flooding.

As the storm moves away this evening, a wind shift to northwest will take places in all areas and winds will pick up to 20 to 30 mph with gusts over 40 mph likely. Some areas will see gusts over 50 mph. The strong wind may result in localized wind damage, and will certainly make it feel very cold, much colder than the 20s that are expected later at night. Fairly rapid freezing of standing water is expected, so keep this in mind also if you will be out and about tonight.

A quick look ahead reveals no major changes from this morning’s thinking. A dry & chilly Saturday is expected, with a sunny start and a cloudier finish. A few inches of snow are possible in about a 12 hour snow event from just after midnight to just after noon on Sunday. Quickly on the heals of this system will be another storm, this one rather strong, passing NW of New England Monday. This will bring windy, milder conditions with periods of rain. At this time, I expect precipitation totals for Monday to be a little lower than what has occurred today.

Updated Boston area forecast…

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy with snow showers and minor snow accumulation early, then clearing. Low 20 to 25. Wind northwest 15 to 25 mph gusting 35 to 45 mph at times. A few gusts to 50 mph are possible.

SATURDAY: Sunshine followed by increasing clouds. High 33 to 38. Wind northwest 10 to 20 mph early, becoming variable around 10 mph later in the day.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Snow mainly after midnight. Low 22 to 27. Wind north 5 to 15 mph.

SUNDAY: Cloudy. Snow in the morning with the potential for 1 to 3 inches of accumulation. High 30 to 35. Wind northeast 5 to 15 mph.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Temperature rising through the 30s. Wind east 5 to 15 mph.

MONDAY: Cloudy with periods of rain, especially in the afternoon. High in the 40s.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy and windy. High in the 30s.

145AM

Three storms will affect the Boston area in the final days of February, the first one today, a second one Sunday, and a third on Monday. The 2 biggest ones will produce mainly rain in the Boston area. The first one will bring some snow to areas N & W of Boston, but the most serious snow will occur in central & northern New England.

The low pressure area that is storm #1 will cross New England from SW to NE during today. The track of this low will be just northwest of Boston. 6 to 12 inches of snow will occur in the ski areas of northern New England down as far as the Lakes region of central NH. Amounts will drop off to a few inches in southwestern NH. Up to an inch or so of snow is possible mainly at the end of the storm around Route 495 and possibly a coating into the 128 belt by Friday evening. Before that, precipitation in the Boston area will be mainly rain, and may fall heavily at times, with 1 to 2 inches of rain quite likely during the morning & early afternoon Friday, before tapering off and becoming more showery. With low pressure cutting NW of Boston, the immediate Boston area will get into the warm sector of the storm, and will probably see a brief spike in temperatures (see below for details). A few thunderstorms are possible in areas that bust into the warm air as the leading edge of colder air behind the storm will be quick to sweep in.

Storm #1 will wind down in terms of precipitation tonight with a few lingering snow showers. However, a period of very strong NW winds can be expected as cold air rushes into the region behind the departing low pressure area. Gusty winds but dry weather will continue through Saturday, along with colder conditions.

Storm #2 will cross the region Sunday, and will be in the form of weak low pressure passing just to the south of the area. Colder air in place means that this system should be a snow-producer, however it does not look like a major storm.

Storm #3 will follow quickly on the heels of #2, and will bring periods of rain & gusty winds Monday as low pressure passes well NW of Boston, putting the entire region on the warm side of it.

Look for a colder, drier start to March on Tuesday behind the 3rd in the series of storms.

Boston area forecast for the next 5 days…

TODAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain, heaviest in the morning into midday. Rain becoming showery in the immediate Boston area, with even some thunderstorms possible, from midday through mid afternoon. Periods of rain will mix with snow far NW of Boston, near and outside of 495, where some minor accumulation is possible. This rain/snow line will start to push southeastward toward Boston very late in the day. High ranging from the upper 30s well NW of Boston to the lower 50s near and just south of Boston. Falling temperatures late in the day. Winds variable 5 to 15 mph well NW of Boston, southeast shifting to southwest 5 to 15 mph but gusting to 30 mph especially in the afternoon closer to and south of Boston, then shifting to northwest in most areas by the very end of the day.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy with snow showers and minor snow accumulation early, then clearing. Low 20 to 25. Wind northwest 15 to 25 mph gusting 35 to 45 mph at times. A few gusts to 50 mph are possible.

SATURDAY: Sunshine followed by increasing clouds. High 33 to 38. Wind northwest 10 to 20 mph early, becoming variable around 10 mph later in the day.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Snow mainly after midnight. Low 22 to 27. Wind north 5 to 15 mph.

SUNDAY: Cloudy. Snow in the morning with the potential for 1 to 3 inches of accumulation. High 30 to 35. Wind northeast 5 to 15 mph.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Temperature rising through the 30s. Wind east 5 to 15 mph.

MONDAY: Cloudy with periods of rain, especially in the afternoon. High in the 40s.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy and windy. High in the 30s.

100AM

Hi everyone! Not much to add onto the previous discussion in terms of upcoming weather as the overall pattern is going about as expected. Fine-tuning a few things… High pressure brings tranquil weather today before it slips off to the east on Thursday and clouds move in an advance of a complex but not-too-strong weather system. This system will come in 2 parts, the first bringing a few rain or snow showers Thursday night, with a second, more organized area coming in with steadier precipitation on Friday.  There are significant differences in computer model forecasts about this Friday precipitation event, ranging from a mild rainstorm to a cold snowstorm. As many are doing, I am leaning in the milder direction, since high presssure will be located east of us, with a southerly wind ahead of the storm, rather than north of us, which would provide a northeast wind and lock in cold air.

A break is still expected Saturday before a weaker system bring some light snow or mix on Sunday. There continue to be indications of a stormy pattern to begin March, but more on this will come later.

For now, here’s an updated forecast for the Boston area…

WEDNESDAY: Sunny. High 35 to 40. Wind variable up to 10 mph.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Low 20 to 25 except teens some inland areas. Wind light variable.

THURSDAY: Increasing clouds. High 43 to 48. Wind south 5 to 15 mph.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with a few rain or snow showers possible. Low 31 to 36.  Wind southeast 5 to 15 mph.

FRIDAY: Rain likely in the morning, may begin as brief snow north and west of Boston. Rain tapering off in the afternoon with a few rain or snow showers in the evening. High in the 40s.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. High in the 30s.

SUNDAY: Chance of light snow or mix. High in the 30s.

Updated at 130AM

The Week That Was…

Monday…The warm Valentines Day! A spring preview with temperatures in the 50s to around 60 despite some cloudiness.

Tuesday… Back to reality and then some. Arctic cold, 20s, and gusty winds making it feel colder!

Wednesday… Still chilly, but not as cold as the day before, but fairly tranquil.

Thursday & Friday… Spring preview, part 2! Highs in the 50s to low 60s with clouds & sun both days. Lots of melting snow! Thunderstorms Friday night with vivid lightning, loud thunder (see below), & strong winds, rain, some snow north of Boston, & even some hail.

Saturday… Powerful northwest winds causing damage in some areas, lots of clouds, a few snow flurries, and colder temperatures.

Sunday… Still breezy, but bright & dry, though a cold day!

Why was the thunder so loud Friday night? There are 3 answers. 1) Leafless trees do not absorb sound waves nearly as much as ones with full foliage. 2) Snow, which often muffles the sound of thunder when it’s falling or freshly soft in the ground, does just the opposite when it’s hard & crusty. It acts more like a cement floor, reflecting the sound waves, or allowing them to bounce along. 3) Most of the lightning bolts were of positive polarity. What does that mean? About 90% of lightning is of negative polarity, and to simplify this, let’s just look at cloud-to-ground lightning strikes. Negative strikes are occurring between negative charges near the base of the clouds and positive charges on the ground. Positive lightning, which accounts for about 10% of lightning, is much more powerful, as it is discharging between positive charges near the top of the clouds and negative charges around the edges and outside of the storm on the ground below. The distance between the charges is greater, resulting in a more powerful spark, or bolt of lightning. These kinds of lightning discharges cause the thunder that often rolls across the sky, rumbles for several seconds, even up to half a minute or more, and sometimes produces a bottom-out sound so low it shakes the ground & the house you are in.

The Week Ahead…

For some of you, the weekend continues tomorrow, as it is the Presidents Day holiday, but whether it’s the start of a new week for you or the end of your weekend has no influence on the weather. It’s going to snow, but not much. We’ve been advertising a snow threat for Monday for several days now, and it is going to verify. It will not be a big storm, however, as a relatively weak wave of low pressure will be sliding rapidly eastward, passing just south of New England. The snow in the Boston area will begin around 2AM or 3AM and last until around or shortly after noon. Expect a slightly earlier start time to the snow in areas to the west of the city. Impact from this system will be minimal, even thought its peak will be during the Monday commute, as many people will not be on the roads due to the holiday.  Snow amounts should range from less than 1 inch in southern New Hampshire to around 1 inch to locally 2 inches in most of eastern MA. Similar amounts are expected to the south and west, though a few amounts locally over 3 inches are possible anywhere south and west of Worcester. Isolated 4 or 5 inch amounts are about as high as we can see out of this storm, and that would most likely occur in CT or southwestern MA.

High pressure from the north will build into the region late Monday and continue to dominate into midweek. This will shunt a second wave of low pressure south of New England on Tuesday, which will be a bright but very windy & cold day. Temperatures will moderate and winds will be lighter on Wednesday, a splendid but chilly late winter day.

As high pressure slips off to the east on Thursday, milder temperatures are expected, but you’ll notice clouds on the approach in the afternoon as the next storm system gets ready to move in from the west. There are some uncertainties with how this system, and another potential follow up storm over the weekend will play out, because the tracks of both storms remain uncertain. My current feeling is that the Friday system will track over or just northwest of the Boston area, which is a mild scenario, making me lean in the rain direction. After a break on Saturday, the next system is due on Sunday. It’s a week out, but early indications are that this storm may be a colder one, with at least some snow/mix involved. We’ll fine tune the late week situation as it gets a little closer.

A detailed forecast for the Boston area follows below. Have a great week everybody!

Boston Area Forecast…

MONDAY: Cloudy with snow in the morning, average accumulation under 1 inch in southern NH, around 1 inch north of the Mass Pike, 1 to 3 inches south of the Mass Pike, with the greatest chance of the 3 inch amounts south of Worcester.  Breaking clouds the first half of the afternoon & becoming mostly sunny during the second half of the afternoon. High near 30. Wind north up to 10 mph.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Low 10 to 15. Wind northwest 15 to 25 mph. Wind chill near zero.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. High 25 to 30. Wind northwest 15 to 25 mph. Wind chill in the teens.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Low 10 to 15 except  5 to 10 inland valleys. Wind northwest diminishing to under 10 mph.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny. High 33 to 38. Wind variable around 10 mph.

THURSDAY: AM sunshine. PM clouds. Low 25. High 40.

FRIDAY: AM rain/mix. PM clearing. Low 35. High 50.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 25. High 35.

SUNDAY: Chance of snow/mix. Low 25. High 35.