DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 14-18)

We’re not done with that low pressure circulation yet. Its initial arrival, coming after the third longest dry stretch of the year, has put us into a stretch of unsettled weather which started with a wet and windy Friday, featured a vigorous disturbance with more wind, thunderstorms, and even snowflakes in some areas on the back side of it on Saturday evening, and while much of today will be fairly nice, though breezy and cool, we will see clouds moving in later in advance of the next disturbance being influenced by the original low. This will be one moving east northeastward toward New England from the Ohio Valley and will spawn a weak secondary low. This will pass just southeast of our region tonight and early Monday, bringing a minor precipitation event, mainly rain, though a few snowflakes may mix in over interior higher elevations mainly pre-dawn of Monday. After this exits, we will dry out for the remainder of Monday right into the middle of the coming week. A period of breezy and chilly weather can be expected from Monday through Tuesday as low pressure moves away to the east and high pressure approaches from the west, along with near to below normal temperatures. As high pressure moves over the region Tuesday night and Wednesday, we set up what may be the coldest morning of the season so far on Wednesday, when Boston’s Logan Airport may go below freezing for the first time, or at least get to the freezing point, while areas away from the city are all generally in the 20s. This day also has the potential to have a “big diurnal”, or a large spread between morning lows and afternoon highs when we start to see milder air arrive with a quiet warm front passage as high pressure starts to move off to the east. This will lead to a warmer than normal and breezy day for Thursday, ahead of an approaching cold front, which at this point looks like it will be slow enough to allow dry weather for Thursday’s daylight before bringing nighttime rain showers.

TODAY: Sunny start, mostly cloudy finish. Highs 48-55. Wind W 5-15 MPH, gusts around 20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Overnight periods of rain that may mix with snow in interior higher elevations. Lows 36-43. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Cloudy start with early morning rain/drizzle possible in eastern coastal areas, then partly sunny. Highs 42-49. Wind NE to N 5-15 MPH, gusts around 20 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 30-37. Wind N to NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 41-48. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 24-29 except 30-35 urban centers and immediate shoreline. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 50-57. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 40-47. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of rain showers at night. Highs 58-65. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 19-23)

A cold front moves through and offshore in the early hours of November 19 with a rain shower threat, and may have to watch for a rain/snow mix briefly interior higher elevations if the moisture hangs around after the front’s passage. Remainder of November 19 to feature dry, breezy, chilly weather. November 20 should feature fair but cool weather with high pressure moving in. Next low pressure system is expected to track north of New England later November 21 through November 22. This track would bring a warm front through the region November 21 with some clouds and milder air arriving, then a cold front through on November 22 with a rain shower threat and a shift back to cooler but dry weather by the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 24-28)

Staying with the idea of a less threatening pattern in terms of storminess. We’ll deal with one or two northern stream systems in a fairly fast flow with a lot of up and down in the temperature department, but overall, the weather for travel and other holiday activity for Thanksgiving (November 25 and the days around it is not looking all that bad. Timing and details will be brought into focus as we get closer to these days…

C-19 Chat Post – November 14 2021

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 13-17)

After a wet and wild Friday, we have a break in the action for a good number of today’s hours – basically the short daylight hours. With lingering low level moisture after yesterday’s rain, mild air, and humid conditions, this morning while dawning with a clear sky above has seen some fog patches in lower elevations. Any of these will burn off quickly as the sun climbs toward its low-angle peak in the mid November sky, but despite the low sun angle and short daylight, it will be a fairly nice day, temperature-wise, and with a relatively light wind. But things will start to change quickly as we head toward sunset. Clouds will advance from the west quickly ahead of a potent disturbance. This disturbance, as mentioned on yesterday’s discussion, is rotating around a large low pressure circulation in eastern Canada, and will dive through the Great Lakes early today before rounding the base of the circulation and heading east and northeast into our region, passing through in very quick fashion between about sunset and 8 p.m. An area of surface low pressure will be forming right as this crosses our area. What we can expect from it is 1 or 2 broken to solid lines of rain showers that may contain downpours, small hail, gusty winds, and possible lightning and thunder. As these move through, the worst of the weather will last literally a few to several minutes in any one location. Other locations may not see all that much if the line(s) contain(s) broken rather than solid convection. As the low center takes shape quickly, a lobe of wrap-around moisture on its back side may produce showers of rain and higher elevation snow from central and northern Worcester County into southwestern NH, which then would move eastward across the rest of southern NH and possibly northeastern MA as rain showers just before the system departs. With low pressure forming on the region, as you’d imagine, the wind direction will depend on where the low center is relative to any given location at a given time, but wind gusts of above 30 MPH are quite possible in the initial lines of convection, those likely being southerly to westerly winds, and briefly as the system departs, those likely being northwesterly winds. Later this evening and overnight we’ll see quieter weather, dry and chilly with a modest breeze. Expect a dry day on Sunday but with a cool and gusty westerly breeze as we feel the last of eastern Canadian low pressure. One more disturbance being pulled in this circulation will have a bit more independence as it approaches New England, spawning a new surface low near the northern Mid Atlantic Coast, which will then move northeastward, passing just southeast of New England by early Monday. This system will bring a period of rain late Sunday night and early Monday, and this may fall as a mix of rain/snow over interior higher elevations, although no snow accumulation is expected. The rest of Monday will be drier, but breezy and cool as clouds break behind the departing low pressure system. When we get to Tuesday, except a dry but breezy and chilly mid November day between low pressure in the Canadian Maritimes and high pressure in the Great Lakes. While the center of this high likely passes south of our area Wednesday, it will extend far enough north to provide us with a tranquil day that starts rather cold followed by a nice temperature recovery.

TODAY: Lower elevation fog areas dissipating by mid morning, otherwise mostly sunny this morning and increasing clouds west to east after noon. Highs 53-60. Wind SW up to 10 MPH shifting to SE.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy early-mid evening with rain showers and possible thunderstorms moving southwest to northeast across the region, some potentially producing small hail and strong wind gusts, and an additional area of rain showers and higher elevation snow showers possible from central MA to southwestern NH just behind the initial activity exiting as rain showers through southeastern NH and northeastern MA mid evening. Becoming partly cloudy late evening and mostly clear overnight. Lows 36-43. Wind variable 5-15 MPH but short-lived stronger winds with gusts above 30 MPH mid to late evening, becoming NW then W 5-15 MPH late evening and overnight.

SUNDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 48-55. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clouding up. Possible rain late evening and overnight which may mix with snow in interior higher elevations. Lows 35-42. Wind variable becoming N to NE 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. A chance of rain and drizzle favoring eastern areas early morning. Highs 42-49. Wind NE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 30-37. Wind N to NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 41-48. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 25-30 except 30-35 urban centers and immediate shoreline. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 47-54. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 18-22)

Current expectations are for a breezy and milder November 18 ahead of a cold front from low pressure that will pass north of the region, dragging that front through here by early Friday with only a minor rain shower threat followed by cooler weather and a gusty breeze. Fair weather is expected for the November 20-21 weekend with a chilly start and milder finish. Watching for unsettled weather as low pressure arrives from the southwest at the end of this period.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 23-27)

Some medium range guidance has recently presented a “scary” look to this period, which includes Thanksgiving on November 25, and while I feel we will have to watch for impact from one or two low pressure areas, I’m not seeing quite as stormy a pattern as some computer guidance “sees”. With colder air nearby and a general eastern US low pressure trough though, we will have to keep a close eye on it and work on the details going forward.

C-19 Chat Post – November 13 2021

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 12-16)

Many weather changes will be taking place during this 5-day period, which is not atypical at all for this part of the country at this time of the year. Specifically, we will be starting with a windy, warmer, and somewhat wild Friday, eventually wet for all areas. This is a system we have been eyeing and talking about for several days now and it is going to be behave pretty much as advertised. This is a good example of how when we first see a potential system many days in advance, we have to talk about it in very general terms. You may recall seeing on this blog back when November 12 was still about a week away the talk of having to watch for potential unsettled weather in the November 12-14 window of time. As we got closer and closer to these days we (meteorologists) were able to keep track of trends on our most reliable guidance, weed out guidance we thought might not be quite leading us in the right direction, watch trends in current weather across the hemisphere, and with those and other elements of our scientific method gradually start to bring this forecast into more focus. Well, finally we arrive at November 12, and definitely with an imminent weather event. Is this going to come close to matching the powerful storm of just over 2 weeks ago? Certainly not. But this system will be significant enough on its own as it will produce decent wind and some heavy rainfall as well. The event is the result of a frontal boundary that is pushing well ahead of its parent low, a low that is moving into the Great Lakes as a mature system (no longer strengthening). However the pressure gradient between it and offshore high pressure, and the frontal boundary which is channelling a good amount of moisture northward, are enough to create this event for us. Some areas started the day with a briefly colorful sunrise as sunlight made it through breaks in the clouds to the east and onto the bases of the advancing clouds from this system. That will make the “red sky in morning…” saying come true this time. The clouds are thickening up and we’ll see our first rain showers coming through the region this morning, mainly in scattered form, though any of them can be briefly heavy. As we reach midday and afternoon, a much more solid band of rain showers and potential embedded thunderstorms will cross the region from west to east, while the individual showers within it move more from south to north. Winds at the surface will already be moderate with stronger gusts, but just above us they will be blowing even stronger, and in this set-up you can have some of those winds be pulled down to ground level by heavier convective showers. So areas that see those carry the potential for damaging wind gusts above the sustained and more frequent gusts levels. As is often the case, the strongest winds will occur in coastal areas and higher elevations. There is also the remote potential in this set-up of a briefly rotating convective shower, whether it produces thunder or not, and sometimes those can result in short-lived, small tornadoes. It’s highly unlikely that any specific location will see one of these, but the risk being there, even if minimal, should be noted. With still many leaves on the trees that will be coming down in the rain and wind, we also need to watch for slippery roads from leaf coverage as well as flooding from blocked storm drains in roads and some parking lots. With the short daylight and early sunset, visibility of such hazards becomes rather difficult and will be this way through the afternoon / evening commute today, so use extra caution if you have to travel. Once we get to this evening, the band of widespread showers will be moving away to the east, lastly from Cape Cod, and we will end up with a better late evening and overnight as winds settle and it starts to dry out. But as we get to the weekend and even early next week we will not be completely done with this low pressure system. Its broad circulation will be moving across eastern Canada, along with its associated upper level low. A low pressure disturbance rotating around this larger system will approach us on Saturday, and while we get through most of the daylight hours rain-free, a short-lived by potent episode of rain and even possible thunder will cross the region from southwest to northeast later in the day through early evening. This may be accompanied by gusty winds too, and will make conditions seem like the ones we will see later today, but for a much shorter period of time. By later evening, it’s gone, and we’re turning drier and cooler. This sets up a dry, breezy, and seasonably chilly Sunday, but when we get to Sunday night and Monday, yet again another disturbance will be racing around the larger low pressure circulation and heading for our area. This one will spawn a surface low offshore which will pass southeast of New England on Monday, but close enough to turn our wind northeast and bring some precipitation to us Sunday night and part of Monday. It will be cold enough so that there may be some wet snow mixing in with any rain that falls mainly over interior higher elevation locations. This will not be an accumulating snow event, but a reminder of what season we are heading toward. When we get to Tuesday, we’ll be in a drier but chilly northwesterly air flow between departing low pressure to the east and high pressure approaching from the west.

TODAY: Cloudy. Scattered rain showers and embedded downpours this morning. Widespread rain showers, embedded downpours and possible thunder this afternoon. Humid. Highs 58-65. Wind SE 10-20 MPH with gusts 30-40 MPH and isolated to scattered gusts above 40 MPH.

TONIGHT: Breaking clouds. Rain showers ending west to east. Patchy fog. Lows 46-53. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY: Variably cloudy – most sun morning / least sun afternoon. Highs 53-60. Wind SW 5-15 MPH becoming variable then SE.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with widespread rain showers and a possible thunderstorm early evening from west to east. Breaking clouds late evening, clearing overnight. Lows 41-48. Wind SE to variable 5-15 MPH becoming W with higher gusts overnight.

SUNDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 48-55. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clouding up. Possible rain late evening and overnight which may mix with snow in interior higher elevations. Lows 35-42. Wind variable becoming N to NE 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. A chance of rain and drizzle favoring eastern areas morning and midday. Highs 42-49. Wind NE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy evening. Clearing overnight. Lows 30-37. Wind N to NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 40-47. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 17-21)

The overall larger scale pattern is expected to feature west-to-east flow. For this region expect dry weather with a temperature moderation November 17-18, a frontal system coming through around November 19 with briefly unsettled weather then a return to dry but cooler weather after that for the November 20-21 weekend.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 22-26)

This is Thanksgiving week (Thanksgiving being November 25). The overall idea continues to be for a generally west-to-east flow pattern. An unsettled weather system would likely be passing through early in the week, followed by fair briefly colder weather, then some moderation, but possibly another likely minor system by the end of the period, which is low confidence as it becomes nearly impossible to time weather systems this far in advance. The overall take-away is that it doesn’t look all that stormy for this important travel / holiday period at this time.

C-19 Chat Post – November 12 2021

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 11-15)

As we honor those who have served and continue to serve our country on this Veterans Day, the weather will cooperate nicely for parades and ceremonies as high pressure dominates with dry weather and seasonably cool air but with light wind. Things change in a hurry though after this. Clouds roll in tonight ahead of an approaching frontal boundary, occluding off as its mature parent low moves into the Great Lakes. This will result in a breezy, mild, humid Friday with widespread showers moving in from west to east and lasting up to several hours before moving out during the evening. The frontal boundary does have enough push to continue eastward offshore by early Saturday, and the large low pressure circulation it came from is expected to drift eastward across eastern Canada through the weekend into Monday lifting gradually to the northeast with time. Another disturbance rotating around it will pass through our region Saturday evening. After much of the day is dry, another period of rainfall lis likely in the evening. This will move out quickly, leaving us with a dry but breezy and cool day on Sunday. While the main influence of the old low pressure area’s circulation will have lifted far enough north so we don’t feel its wind anymore by Monday, an upper low associated with it will still have enough influence on the weather so that the next disturbance heading for NY and the St. Lawrence Valley will spawn a new low pressure area offshore Monday, and we can expected a cloudier and chilly day with the threat of some rainfall, although much of that may stay offshore. By Monday evening, enough cold air will be around so that if there are any lingering showers, they can be in the form of rain or snow – something to watch as the potential first flakes of the season for parts of the WHW area.

TODAY (VETERANS DAY): Sun and high clouds. Highs 51-58. Wind N to variable up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 41-48 evening, then slowly rising temperature overnight. Wind variable to SE 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Cloudy. Increasing showers from scattered to widespread west to east during the morning continuing afternoon. Slight chance of thunder. Humid. Highs 57-64. Wind SE to S 10-20 MPH, higher gusts likely.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Breaking clouds. Rain showers ending west to east. Patchy fog. Lows 42-49. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY: Variably cloudy – most sun morning / least sun afternoon. Highs 51-58. Wind SW 5-15 MPH becoming variable then SE.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with a period of rain evening. Breaking clouds but patchy fog overnight. Lows 41-48. Wind SE to variable 5-15 MPH becoming W.

SUNDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 48-55. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy evening. Mostly cloudy overnight. Lows 40-47. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain, may end as rain/mix/snow showers evening. Highs 42-49. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 16-20)

A west-to-east flow pattern will dominate the weather with a tendency for the mean trough position to be in eastern Canada, the Great Lakes, and Northeast. Current timing of surface features suggest dry/cool weather November 16-17, dry but milder weather November 18, a frontal system bringing a rain shower risk November 19, then windy/colder end of period.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 21-25)

As we head toward Thanksgiving (November 25) the idea right now is for a fast-flowing pattern, west to northwest flow, limited precipitation chances and temperatures near to below normal. Will bring this important travel / holiday period into more focus as we get closer to it.

C-19 Chat Post – November 11 2021

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 10-14)

A cold front moves through the region from northwest to southeast this morning with lots of clouds and a few rain showers (mostly to the north). Improving weather but with a cooling trend this afternoon and tonight sets up a fair but seasonably cool Veterans Day Thursday governed by high pressure. This high quickly moves offshore though as a broad area of low pressure moves into the Great Lakes Friday, sending its occluding frontal system eastward into our region with mild, humid air and wet weather arriving during the day. The main band of shower activity, which may include embedded thunderstorms, will likely move off to the east by evening with a lesser chance of shower activity after that, and then drier air will arrive to make at least the first half of and possibly most of Saturday dry, but cooler. But the broad low pressure circulation will take its time moving across eastern Canada and a couple more disturbances will rotate around it and across the region during the course of the weekend. Right now, neither of these look to be significant precipitation producers, and it looks like they time out to mainly affect us during Saturday evening and Sunday night. Regardless of sensible weather, it will be cooler this weekend.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy morning with rain showers possible mainly north of I-90. Mostly sunny afternoon. Highs 55-62. Wind W to NW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 32-39. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY (VETERANS DAY): Mostly sunny. Highs 51-58. Wind N to variable up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 43-50 evening, then rising into the 50s overnight. Wind variable to SE 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Cloudy. Rain showers likely and a slight chance of thunderstorms, mainly late morning on. Highs 56-63. Wind SE to S 10-20 MPH, higher gusts likely.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Breaking clouds. Rain showers ending west to east. Patchy fog. Lows 42-49. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 52-59. Wind SW to W 10-20 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Lows 41-48. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 48-55. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 15-19)

A disturbance moving through may spawn an offshore storm producing a northeasterly air flow with clouds, chilly air, and some wet weather November 15. Dry, chilly November 16. A moderating trend follows and the next system threatens with unsettled weather by later November 18 or November 19 depending on timing.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 20-24)

Another system threatens with unsettled weather probably mid period, but the overall trend will be for mostly dry but cooler to colder weather.

C-19 Chat Post – November 10 2021

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 9-13)

Today will be the pick of the week, although yesterday wasn’t too shabby. Today’s combination sunshine, light wind, and being the mildest day of the week makes it the winner as high pressure sits over the region. The WHW forecast area has yet to see any widespread measurable rainfall this month. Boston had a trace on one day, and a string of zeroes otherwise. That will change not long from now, but not just yet. We do have a cold front that will be crossing the region Wednesday morning with a few scattered rain showers, but these will probably produce trace amounts of rainfall where they occur, and it will also be a mild day as it will take until evening for the cooler air to really show up. High pressure will bring fair but seasonably cool weather Thursday, Veterans Day, with favorable conditions for any outdoor parades / ceremonies. Clouds will be moving in as the day goes on though, and this portends a very different look to our weather by the end of the week. A large low pressure area will lift into the Great Lakes, a maturing cyclone that won’t be moving all that quickly but will send its occluding frontal system eastward into our region, bringing mild and more humid weather Friday with a pretty solid band of showers and even embedded thunder potential, with timing looking like most of the rain will fall during the afternoon and evening hours. At this time, it does look like this system will be moving quickly enough to the east so that it will make it offshore by Saturday morning, with Saturday being a dry, cooler day.

TODAY: Sunny. Highs 59-66. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. Rain showers possible before dawn. Lows 48-55. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy morning with rain showers possible mainly north of I-90. Mostly sunny afternoon. Highs 55-62. Wind W to NW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 32-39. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY (VETERANS DAY): Sunny morning. Partly sunny afternoon. Highs 51-58. Wind N to variable up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 43-50 evening, then rising into the 50s overnight. Wind variable to SE 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Cloudy. Rain showers likely and a slight chance of thunderstorms, mainly midday and afternoon. Highs 56-63. Wind SE to S 10-20 MPH, higher gusts likely.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Breaking clouds. Showers ending west to east. Patchy fog. Lows 42-49. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 52-59. Wind SW to W 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 14-18)

Dry but breezy and cooler weather expected during the day on November 14 as we’ll be on the south side of a broad low pressure circulation moving into southeastern Canada. A disturbance moving across the Northeast Sunday night into Monday will bring the chance of rain showers except some mix/snow showers possible in interior higher elevations as it trends colder. Fair, dry, but chilly weather is expected November 16-17 and by the end of the period we should be watching for another low pressure area approaching from the west.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 19-23)

The timing of systems will be hard to pin down but expecting two disturbances to pass through with precipitation chances in a pattern of up and down temperatures.

C-19 Chat Post – November 9 2021

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 8-12)

High pressure provides continued fair weather with a warming trend through Tuesday. Low pressure sails eastward across eastern Canada Tuesday night and early Wednesday, dragging a frontal system through here with clouds and a rain shower threat mostly in southern NH and northern MA during Wednesday morning. This front will introduce a slight cool-down for the middle of the week, including Veterans Day (Thursday), but high pressure moving in on that day will bring dry weather, favorable for any outdoor observances / parades. Friday, high pressure heads offshore and a broad area of low pressure moves into the Great Lakes, but this will be a mature system and its frontal system will be pushing eastward more quickly than the parent low, so expect unsettled weather to quickly arrive with lots of clouds and rain showers as well.

TODAY: Limited sun Cape Cod & Islands into mid morning, otherwise sunny. Highs 54-61. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 33-40. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sunny. Highs 58-65. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 45-52. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy morning with rain showers possible mainly north of I-90. Mostly sunny afternoon. Highs 55-62. Wind W to NW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 32-39. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY (VETERANS DAY): Mostly sunny. Highs 51-58. Wind N up to 10 MPH becoming variable.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 42-49. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Cloudy. Rain showers likely, mainly in the afternoon. Highs 56-63. Wind S 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 13-17)

The question to answer for the November 13-14 weekend is whether or not there will be any additional rainfall. Right now it looks like the frontal system that approaches on Friday will have moved offshore by early Saturday but should be close enough that if a wave of low pressure moves up along it, and it probably will, that some additional rain showers may occur especially early in the day and favoring eastern areas. Will watch and fine tune this as we go through the next few days. Right now Sunday (Nov 14) looks breezy, chilly, and dry. A disturbance may bring rain showers for November 15 and this should be followed by drier weather but a shot of colder air later in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 18-22)

Some temperature moderation is expected at least for the early part of this period and then we will have to watch for a disturbance / storm system to move through at some point which may be followed by another shot of early-season cold. There are uncertainties on the evolution of the pattern as we head through mid month so additional evaluation will be needed.

C-19 Chat Post – November 8 2021

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 7-11)

Welcome back to Standard Time! If you haven’t changed your clocks that don’t automatically change, it’s time to do so! We have another nice day in store today, in fact we have a stretch of nice days that pretty much go right through this 5-day period through the middle of the coming week. As we anticipated, a storm stays far offshore today / early Monday as we are protected by high pressure, which extends its coverage through Tuesday. There will be a contrast in temperatures when you compare the cold morning lows occurring as I write this update (20s in many areas, 30s in urban centers and higher elevations), to the 60s many places will see by Tuesday afternoon. When we get to Wednesday, I’m still expecting a low pressure area to whistle by to our north, dragging a barely noticeable warm front / cold front combo across the region, made known only by some clouds and shifting and increased breezes. A bubble of high pressure will move in for a slightly cooler but dry Veterans Day on Thursday.

TODAY: Sunshine, filtered in some areas by high clouds. Highs 49-56. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy RI and southeastern MA, mostly clear elsewhere. Lows 36-43. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 50-57. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 33-40. Wind W under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 58-65. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 43-50. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 55-62. Wind SW 10-20 MPH shifting to NW.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 32-39. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY (VETERANS DAY): Mostly sunny. Highs 50-57. Wind N up to 10 MPH becoming variable.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 12-16)

Unsettled weather is likely for the early through mid portion of this period, with the impact likely coming from two systems. We start out with a southwesterly air flow aloft and a system moving in from the west, with rain or rain showers likely at some point November 12 and based on current timing again sometime November 14 to early November 15. We start to get into colder air toward the end of the period which brings up the question of whether or not we end up with some mix/frozen precipitation before the end of the unsettled stretch – and we have lots of time to analyze the possibilities and answer the question before the event takes place. Colder air should be here by the end of this period.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 17-21)

Fair, cooler or colder weather to start and based on the overall expectations of pattern evolution we should moderate but have some unsettled weather before the end of the period. Far too future for any real details of course.