8:25AM

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 1-5)
Welcome to September, and a blog update that is essentially identical to the one written on the final day of August, because everything to me looks the same as it did yesterday. High pressure to the north sends cooler northeast winds into the region today with fair weather. A warm front brings a threat of some wet weather mainly later Monday, then the feel of summer returns Tuesday-Wednesday. A cold front passes by Wednesday night and settles to the south of the region by Thursday, which is the first of 2 days we’ll have to watch for indirect and a much lower risk of more direct impact from Dorian after it finishes a sweeping turn along the US Southeast Coast (center staying just offshore except possibly NC briefly as it stands now). At this point I think we’d just be seeing cloudiness move in during the day Thursday.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 70-77, coolest coast. Wind NE 5-10 MPH.
TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 55-62. Wind E under 10 MPH.
MONDAY (LABOR DAY): Variably cloudy. Afternoon showers possible favoring central MA and southwestern NH. Highs 71-78. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with showers likely evening. Partly cloudy with patchy fog overnight. Humid. Lows 61-68. Wind S up to 10 MPH.
TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Humid. Highs 82-89 except cooler South Coast / Cape Cod. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Humid. Lows 63-70. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Humid. A late-day shower or thunderstorm possible mainly north and west of Boston. Highs 83-90 except cooler South Coast / Cape Cod. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy with showers and thunderstorms possible evening. Partly cloudy with patchy fog overnight. Humid. Lows 60-67. Wind SW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts shifting to W.
THURSDAY: Partly sunny morning. Mostly cloudy afternoon. Less humid. Highs 70-77. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 6-10)
September 6 would be the most likely day to be impacted by any rainfall from the passage of Dorian offshore. A New England landfall is highly unlikely. The storm may be far enough offshore that much of the rain remains over the ocean as well. Will monitor the progress. Of more certainty is large ocean swells and rough surf affecting both the southern and eastern shores of southern New England September 6 into the September 7-8 weekend before settling down. The weekend weather is likely to be pleasant, seasonably cool to mild and dry. Mainly fair weather and ocean-modified seasonably cool air will be around September 9-10 with high pressure centered north to northeast of the region.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 11-15)
High pressure sinks to the south over the Atlantic and a southerly to westerly flow develops for much of this period with a northward-displaced jet stream. This is a mainly fair and above normal temperature pattern for this area, and if it came to fruition would bring some very nice weather for the dwindling days of summer, pre-equinox, which would be just over a week away by the end of this period.

8:35AM

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 31-SEPTEMBER 4)
Labor Day Weekend: 2 1/2 out of 3 ain’t bad? Looks like a decent weekend, really, for southeastern New England. Our unsettled weather will probably hold off until most activities have wrapped up and people who were away are on their way back home, as a warm front crossing the region Monday brings a wet weather threat, but a lot of it probably waiting until later in the day or nighttime to pass through this area. Before that, it’s all about high pressure and a gradual wind shift from northwest today to more northeasterly on Sunday, so a cooling trend will result, but still quite nice. Out of the 3 days, today’s your best beach day. Once we get beyond the weekend, the feel of summer returns as a southwesterly air flow takes over. By later Wednesday, a cold front will be approaching, but may be doing so slowly enough so that some areas may make a late season run at 90. All the while, we’ll be watching Dorian to the south. For the last couple days, I have been leaning toward a scenario that keeps the center of the hurricane from reaching Florida. I am nearly certain of this now. The northern Bahamas will not be spared. And as the hurricane starts a northward movement, the Carolina coast will be vulnerable for at least a very close pass and possibly a landfall. A quicker acceleration of this hurricane would result in the possibility of a PRE event up here as early as Wednesday night, but for the moment any impact directly or indirectly related to Dorian is likely to be after this 5-day period.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 75-82, coolest coast. Wind NW 5-10 MPH but some coastal sea breezes.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 55-62, coolest inland. Wind N under 10 MPH.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 70-77, coolest coast. Wind NE 5-10 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 55-62. Wind E under 10 MPH.
MONDAY (LABOR DAY): Variably cloudy. Afternoon showers possible favoring central MA and southwestern NH. Highs 71-78. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with showers likely evening. Partly cloudy with patchy fog overnight. Humid. Lows 61-68. Wind S up to 10 MPH.
TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Humid. Highs 82-89 except cooler South Coast / Cape Cod. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Humid. Lows 63-70. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Humid. A late-day shower or thunderstorm possible mainly north and west of Boston. Highs 83-90 except cooler South Coast / Cape Cod. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 5-9)
The September 5-6 period is vulnerable for any impact from the passage of Dorian offshore, pending the exact track and speed of the storm. Certainly rough surf along the coast. There is the possibility of showers or a period of rain somewhere during this time frame as well. Drier weather is expected for the September 7-9 period as high pressure builds in. This outlook is different, timing-wise, than previously. This is why I had been mentioning previously that the outlooks were low confidence. Have tropical systems in the area, even without direct impact, can play havoc with prediction.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 10-14)
Still looking for a northward-displaced jet stream over a flat high pressure ridge and domination by surface high pressure much of the period as well, leading to a drier and warmer than average stretch of weather. There will probably be a couple temperature swings within this, however.

7:28AM

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 30-SEPTEMBER 3)
This forecast period includes the 3 day Labor Day Weekend and the 2 days that border it. Maybe you made it an extra long weekend? I didn’t. I’m actually working Labor Day itself, but you don’t care about that .. “just get to the weather TK!” Ok ok! Here we go. High pressure centered to the south dominates today which will be a very warm and slightly humid day, typical of late August. A weak cold front passes by late today and kicks off no more than a brief isolated shower over north central and northeastern MA and southern NH. I didn’t have these in the forecast on yesterday’s blog but I am adding them because the moisture is borderline and I don’t want people to see one and think the weekend is about to go downhill. If you see one, 5 minutes, maybe 10, and gone. Behind this front comes another high pressure area for Saturday with slightly cooler and drier air, but still very nice if you have beach plans. As we get deeper into the holiday weekend, that high will slip off to the east and we’ll turn the wind more easterly by Sunday and southeasterly by the holiday itself on Monday, when a warm front will be approaching. So we’ll see some cloudiness and slightly cooler air Sunday although it will still be a very nice day. By Monday, more in the way of cloudiness will be noted and the wet weather threat will increase as a warm front approaches. If we get a period of rain it should hold off until later in the day, based on current timing. It’s very hard to string together 3 completely dry days in New England at any time of year, but overall this particular holiday weekend will be quite nice. By Tuesday, post warm frontal passage, we’re back in warm air and increased humidity but with fair weather as a southwesterly flow takes over.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Sunny with the exception of some clouds and a possible brief shower southern NH and north central to northeastern MA late afternoon.
Highs 78-85. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 58-65. Wind NW 5-10 MPH.
SATURDAY: Sunny. Highs 75-82. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 57-64. Wind NE 5-10 MPH.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 70-77, coolest coast. Wind E 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 55-62. Wind light E.
MONDAY (LABOR DAY): Variably cloudy. Risk of light rain, especially afternoon/evening. Highs 72-79. Wind light SE.
MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain evening. Partly cloudy with patchy fog overnight. Humid. Lows 62-69. Wind light SW.
TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Humid. Highs 82-89 except cooler South Coast / Cape Cod. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 4-8)
Hurricane Dorian’s path will have an impact on the outlook for this period. The storm is expected to impact Florida around Labor Day but what it does after that is still uncertain. It is possible that remnant moisture arrives here by the weekend of September 7-8, but that could just as easily head somewhere else ranging from the Ohio Valley to out to sea south of New England. So the outlook for those days is very unclear as of now. Before that, expect a warm/humid September 4 with a late-day shower or thunderstorm possible as a cold front moves through, then high pressure to bring pleasant weather for September 5-6.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 9-13)
Currently expecting a flat ridge of high pressure and a general west to east flow with a fairly dry and warm stretch, but this can also change with respect to the remains of Dorian and how it can potentially alter the pattern. So the forecast is low to moderate confidence at this time.

7:14AM

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 29-SEPTEMBER 2)
The rain event that was a combination of moisture from TD Erin and a cold front is exiting via Cape Cod first thing this morning, and today will turn into a fantastic late summer day, though there will still be some humidity in the air to start, it will be drying out gradually as high pressure builds, and this will continue, with warm air, through Friday. A trough will swing through the region from northwest to southeast Friday night, but looks like it will bring only some cloudiness but no rainfall. High pressure builds in for 2/3 of the Labor Day Weekend with nice but somewhat cooler weather Saturday and Sunday. Another low pressure trough will bring more cloudiness and this time the risk of a few showers by Labor Day Monday.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Cloudy with showers Cape Cod very early, otherwise clearing and becoming mostly sunny. Moderately humid. Highs 77-84. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 60-67. Wind W 5-10 MPH.
FRIDAY: Sunny. Highs 78-85. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 58-65 Wind NW 5-10 MPH.
SATURDAY: Sunny. Highs 75-82. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 57-64. Wind NE 5-10 MPH.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 70-77, coolest coast. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 55-62. Wind light E.
MONDAY (LABOR DAY): Variably cloudy. Slight chance of showers. More humid. Highs 72-79. Wind light SE.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 3-7)
Something going on far south of New England, that is Hurricane Dorian likely impacting Florida at some point on the Labor Day Weekend, will have implications for what goes on up here sometime during this period, which likely starts out warming up and turning more humid September 3-4 as high pressure sinks to the south. A front then approaches from the northwest in the September 5-7 period and could do anything from moving swiftly through to slowing down, with the complicating factor of remnant moisture from Dorian possibly getting involved, so this part of the forecast is very much up in the air at this time.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 8-12)
However things work out in the previous period, we likely see a shot of drier air to start this period then a warm-up and increasing humidity as high pressure ridging dominates the weather pattern.

7:26AM

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 28-SEPTEMBER 1)
Get ready for a PRE. What’s a PRE? The letters stand for predecessor rain event, and the short explanation is that it’s a significant area of rain (usually in the form of numerous to widespread showers/thunderstorms) that extends out from a tropical system (depression, storm, hurricane). It does not always connect to the precipitation shield of the storm itself, although it can. In this case, it will be a rapidly developing area of showers and embedded thunderstorms just south of to over southern New England, starting this afternoon, peaking tonight, and exiting west to east in the early hours of Thursday. It is the result of Tropical Storm Erin as it tracks north northeastward off the Mid Atlantic and New England coast, and a cold front moving into and across New England from west to east. Behind this will come drier weather for the balance of Thursday, continuing through Friday and well into the Labor Day weekend through Sunday, which is the first day of September. High pressure initially centered from the Ohio Valley to near southern New England will deliver fairly warm air Thursday-Friday, and as the high center shifts more to the north and east so that it is situated in the St. Lawrence Valley by later Saturday and Sunday, we will see more of a northeasterly to easterly air flow and a cooling trend, somewhat like last weekend.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Partly sunny morning. Mostly cloudy with scattered to numerous showers arriving from south to north during the afternoon. Increasingly humid. Highs 76-83, coolest along the coast. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Cloudy. Numerous to widespread showers and a chance of thunderstorms, diminishing west to east toward dawn. Areas of fog. Very humid. Lows 64-71. Wind light variable.
THURSDAY: Cloudy with showers Cape Cod very early, otherwise clearing and becoming mostly sunny. Moderately humid. Highs 77-84. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 60-67. Wind W 5-10 MPH.
FRIDAY: Sunny. Highs 78-85. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 58-65 Wind NW 5-10 MPH.
SATURDAY: Sunny. Highs 75-82. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 57-64. Wind NE 5-10 MPH.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 70-77, coolest coast. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 2-6)
High pressure should hold in place to the north of the region with an easterly flow for Labor Day Monday September 2 with dry weather but will have to watch for some ocean cloudiness in eastern coastal areas. There may also be some pop-up showers Monday but not looking for a widespread wet weather event. High pressure should shift southward with increasing warmth and humidity September 3-4 and as a front approaches from the northwest September 5 we increase the chance of showers and will have to watch to see if moisture from Dorian becomes involved. It’s far too early to know what, if any impact, that moisture will have, as the track of that system is not known for certain yet. High pressure from Canada should end the period with cooler/drier weather.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 7-11)
The overall pattern should feature a westerly flow with a couple disturbances bringing shower risks around September 7 and 10. Temperatures near to above normal.

7:17AM

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 27-31)
High pressure brings another nice day today, then things change as humidity goes up midweek, a tropical system passes east of New England and a cold front moves through from west to east late Wednesday into Thursday. The only impact from the tropical system, which will probably be a tropical storm by the time it passes well east of the region, will be to increase the surf along the coast. The shower threat will come from mainly from the cold front. High pressure moves back in Friday with fair weather, which will hold on for most of if not all of Saturday, but we’ll have to watch for a risk of a passing shower as a trough swings through the region.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 72-79, coolest coast. Wind light SE.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 60-67. Wind light S.
WEDNESDAY: Increasing clouds. Showers possible by late-day. More humid. Highs 75-82. Wind S 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Humid. Lows 62-69. Wind light S.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Chance of thunderstorms. Humid. Highs 76-83. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Patchy fog. Less humid. Lows 60-67. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 76-83. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 55-62. Wind light variable.
SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Slight risk of a passing shower favoring southern NH. Highs 77-84. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 1-5)
Weak fronts in the region bring shower threats sometime September 2 and 4 but much of the time will be rain-free with fair weather, dominated by high pressure. Temperatures above normal with air on the humid side for the first several days of the period then some drier air may arrive at the end of the period behind the second front.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 6-10)
Pattern should be dominated by high pressure centered southwest of the region with limited shower chances and above normal temperatures.

7:20AM

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 26-30)
High pressure still centered in the Canadian Maritimes will continue to cause a northeast to east air flow and temperatures on the cooler side of normal through Tuesday, but other than some ocean-effect cloudiness and perhaps a sprinkle or some drizzle over parts of southeastern MA today, it will be dry. Low pressure, possibly a weak tropical system, will pass south and east of the region at midweek while a front approaches from the west. This will increase humidity in the region, along with surf along the coastline, and eventually the front from the west will arrive with a chance of showers, greatest chance from Wednesday night into Thursday. By Friday, a bubble of high pressure will build in via the Great Lakes with somewhat drier air.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Cloudiness for a time southeastern MA with a bit of drizzle possible this morning, otherwise partly cloudy to mostly sunny. Highs 68-73 coast, 73-78 interior. Wind E up to 10 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 55-62. Wind light SE.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 72-79, coolest coast. Wind light SE.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 60-67. Wind light S.
WEDNESDAY: Increasing clouds. Showers possible by late-day. More humid. Highs 75-82. Wind S 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Humid. Lows 62-69. Wind light S.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Chance of thunderstorms. Humid. Highs 76-83. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Showers ending. Clearing. Patchy fog. Less humid. Lows 60-67. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 76-83. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 31-SEPTEMBER 4)
A weak trough moves through with a remote risk of a shower August 31 and a front moves through with a slight risk of a passing shower sometime September 2 otherwise high pressure brings mainly dry weather with temperatures near to above normal during this period, which includes the Labor Day Weekend August 31-September 2. The warmest of those 3 days is expected to be August 31.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 5-9)
Pattern should be dominated by high pressure centered southwest of the region with limited shower chances and above normal temperatures.

7:15AM

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 25-29)
Another quick update with tweaks. The “interruption” in the nice weather comes today for parts of the region, especially Boston southward, with a batch of low cloudiness coming in this morning and gradually breaking up later. Before that happens we may see some ocean-ffect showers there. This is a piece of marine moisture that’s a little more concentrated than what’s around it, coming into the region on a northeasterly air flow thanks to high pressure centered north of here. But still, overall not really a bad day, just cooler than some would like for late summer while others are enjoying it very much. The air flow remains northeast to east but weakens Monday as high pressure noses closer. While it will still be cooler than average it may feel warmer than today for many locations due to less wind and less cloudiness. It then holds Tuesday with another fair weather day. By Wednesday-Thursday, low pressure passes south of the region and a weak cold front moves toward the region then through from west to east. The front may grab some of the moisture from the passing system to the south and our rain shower chance will go up at that time.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Areas of low clouds/fog central MA and southwestern NH early will burn off. Low clouds coming off the ocean from near Boston to Cape Cod westward across southeastern MA into RI with patchy fog and a risk of passing showers and drizzle mainly mid morning to noon then slowly dissipating. More sun elsewhere. Highs 68-75, coolest coast. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 53-60. Wind NE to E up to 10 MPH.
MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 70-77, coolest coast. Wind light E.
MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 55-62. Wind light SE.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 72-79, coolest coast. Wind light SE.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 60-67. Wind light S.
WEDNESDAY: Increasing clouds. Showers possible by late-day. More humid. Highs 75-82. Wind S 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Humid. Lows 62-69. Wind light S.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Chance of thunderstorms. Humid. Highs 76-83. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 30-SEPTEMBER 3)
Bubble of high pressure moves in with fair weather and slightly lower humidity August 30. A weak front or trough passes by August 31 with remote risk of a passing shower otherwise fair. High pressure returns with fair weather September 1. A stronger front crosses the region with a risk of a shower or thunderstorm on Labor Day September 2 with high pressure and fair weather following that for September 3, based on current timing.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 4-8)
Pattern should be dominated by high pressure centered southwest of the region with limited shower chances and above normal temperatures.

9:23AM

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 24-28)
Quick update this morning. High pressure controls the weather for a few days, but its position will create a northeasterly air flow across the region, keeping it cooler than average with some ocean cloudiness impacting the region, along with patchy fog and even some drizzle for a time especially eastern MA and RI the first half of Sunday. Overall though, not a bad stretch of weather, just on the cool side for things like pools and beaches, although far inland it will be somewhat warmer, like at the Six Flags water park, where I’ll be on Monday. Haha! Beyond that, we increase the humidity and the temperature somewhat as low pressure passes well south of the region Tuesday/Wednesday and the air flow gradually turns more southerly. A weak cold front may get close enough to kick off some showers/thunderstorms Wednesday.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 70-77, coolest coast. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 53-60. Wind light NE.
SUNDAY: Variably cloudy with areas of fog and a slight chance of patchy drizzle coast. More sun inland. Highs 68-75, coolest coast. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy with areas of fog coast. Partly cloudy with patchy fog inland. Lows 55-62. Wind NE to E up to 10 MPH.
MONDAY: Partly sunny with areas of fog coast. Mostly sunny inland. Highs 70-75 coast, 75-80 inland. Wind light E.
MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 58-65. Wind light SE.
TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 70-77. Wind light SE.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 60-67. Wind light S.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers/thunderstorms afternoon-evening. Humid. Highs 75-82. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 29-SEPTEMBER 2)
A shower or thunderstorm possible early in the period as a weak trough and frontal system passes through, then high pressure ridging takes over with mainly rain-free weather, moderate to high humidity, and above normal temperatures through the Labor Day Weekend, although a weakening trough to the north may be close enough to kick off a few showers and thunderstorms at some point August 31 or September 1.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 3-7)
Pattern should be dominated by high pressure centered southwest of the region with limited shower chances and above normal temperatures.

7:19AM

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 23-27)
A change in the weather pattern means goodbye to summer heat, for now. Just like when we have a mild spell in late February and some jump the gun calling the snow season over, you definitely don’t call the summer heat season over when August still has time to go and September lies ahead. We all know better. And we’re not done with summer heat. We just won’t see any during this 5 day period. Instead as high pressure builds north of the region then gradually slips southeastward, we will start with a northerly air flow today into Saturday, becoming more easterly during late weekend and early next week. Aside of a wave of low pressure causing some morning showers in southeastern portions of the region this morning, and the risk of a patch of drizzle near the eastern coastal areas during Sunday, it will be mainly dry through Monday. Going to stay with a dry forecast for Tuesday but that will depend on the speed of a front creeping back in this direction from the south as well as potential low pressure off the Mid Atlantic Coast, which may or may not have some tropical characteristics to it. For now, I think neither of this are an impact for the end of this period. We’ll also be watching a broad trough in the Midwest by then but that should still be far enough west to not have any impact as well.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly cloudy early to mid morning with lingering showers eastern and southern MA, RI, and eastern CT. Clearing midday-afternoon. Drying out. Highs 78-85. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Clear. Patchy fog interior low elevations. Lows 55-62. Wind light N.
SATURDAY: Sunny. Highs 75-82. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog interior low elevations. Lows 53-60. Wind light NE.
SUNDAY: Variably cloudy with areas of fog and a slight chance of patchy drizzle coast. More sun inland. Highs 68-75, coolest coast. Wind E 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy with areas of fog coast. Partly cloudy with patchy fog inland. Lows 55-62. Wind E up to 10 MPH.
MONDAY: Partly sunny with areas of fog coast. Mostly sunny inland. Highs 70-75 coast, 75-80 inland. Wind light E.
MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 58-65. Wind light SE.
TUESDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 70-77. Wind light SE.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 28-SEPTEMBER 1)
The combination of a broad trough to the west, high pressure east of New England, and low pressure south of New England increases humidity and the risk of wet weather August 28-29 before we transition into a warmer regime with continued high humidity and drier weather but still the risk of a few showers/storms at times.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 2-6)
Midwest trough may flatten out and push eastward with a few showers then some drier air briefly, but the overall regime is still warm/humid with limited shower chances as it looks now. Still not the highest confidence forecast and will adjust as necessary.

7:19AM

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 22-26)
Humidity will remain high today, the cause of areas of fog and low clouds to start, and the trigger of a few showers and thunderstorms later, as we won’t see a cold front pass by the area until the early hours of Friday. Any of the thunderstorms that develop, especially the ones this afternoon, will have the capability of producing heavy rain, brief hail, gusty winds, and frequent lightning, but please note that while this activity can arrive and depart quickly, the vast majority of the region won’t see it (coverage will be fairly low). The shower coverage area may increase tonight as a weak wave of low pressure traverses the front, during tonight, before we finally see clearing and drying Friday. The atmospheric set-up is favorable for cooler weather this weekend and Monday, but it will also resemble somewhat of a block, with high pressure stronger to the north and elongated low pressure (northeast to southwest) settling just south of New England while weakening. This allows a dry northerly air flow for Saturday, but then allows the wind to turn more easterly Sunday-Monday, which will set up a contrast between coastal and inland areas, where the coastal areas (and some distance inland as well) prone to areas of low clouds and fog at times, while inland areas that may see patchy fog at night will enjoy sunshine more abundantly each of those 2 days, though high cloudiness may be on the increase by later Monday due to the timing of the next large scale system moving from the Midwest into the Ohio Valley.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Areas of low clouds/fog early morning. Sun/cloud mix. Isolated afternoon showers/thunderstorms. Humid. Highs 78-85 Cape Cod, 85-92 elsewhere. Wind SW up to 10 MPH, but can be variable and gusty near any storms.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered to numerous showers with possible thunderstorms. Humid. Lows 63-70. Wind SW to W up to 10 MPH.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy early to mid morning with lingering showers eastern and southern MA, RI, and eastern CT. Clearing midday-afternoon. Drying out. Highs 78-85. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear. Patchy fog interior low elevations. Lows 55-62. Wind light N.
SATURDAY: Sunny. Highs 75-82. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog interior low elevations. Lows 53-60. Wind light NE.
SUNDAY: Variably cloudy with areas of fog coast. More sun inland. Highs 68-75, coolest coast. Wind E 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy with areas of fog coast. Partly cloudy with patchy fog inland. Lows 55-62. Wind E up to 10 MPH.
MONDAY: Partly sunny with areas of fog coast. Mostly sunny inland. Highs 70-75 coast, 75-80 inland. Wind light E.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 27-31)
Lower confidence on this period, the final 5 days of August, as we start out with low pressure tracking south of the region, probably far enough to avoid a solid rain event, but possibly close enough for unsettled weather, then a transition to a more southerly air flow with higher humidity but a frontal boundary to the west with a shower/thunderstorm risk for the balance of the period. This outlook will probably change and at least will be in need of some serious fine-tuning.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 1-5)
The differences between various medium range guidance are fairly remarkable for this time of year for the early part of September, which can often lead a forecaster to great confusion. When this happens, I tend to persist with the previous forecast, and for the early part of September this is above average temperatures, fairly humid air, and a few opportunities for showers/thunderstorms between a broad trough in the Great Lakes and high pressure off the Atlantic Coast, but again not the highest confidence forecast with many tweaks to come.

7:15AM

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 21-25)
A warm front passes through the region this morning and midday from southwest to northeast, carrying a round of showers/thunderstorms mainly through central MA into southern NH, causing a spike in humidity, and setting the region up for other rounds of showers and thunderstorms, some of which may be strong to severe, beginning this afternoon and coming in a few waves of potential through Thursday evening, until a cold front has passed by. Will try to now-cast the rounds of activity in the comments when possible. Once we get to early Friday, one last wave of low pressure may wet southeastern areas before a nice dry air mass arrives for the end of the week into the weekend, but by Sunday, the orientation of high pressure may help switch the regionwide wind flow to east, so we’d have marine influences, which could include coastal low clouds and fog, and at the very least temperatures that would be significantly cooler at the beach than over the interior.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Variably cloudy. Isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms, favoring early to mid morning (central MA to southern NH) and again later in the afternoon (favoring central MA and southern NH). Humid. Highs 81-88. Wind S 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A couple episodes of showers/thunderstorms likely, favoring areas northwest of a Boston-Providence line. Areas of fog. Humid. Lows 62-69. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms possible in any location. Humid. Highs 83-90. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts possible.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Additional showers and possibly a thunderstorm, favoring eastern and southern MA through RI. Patchy fog. Humid. Lows 61-68. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts possible.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy start with a period of showers possible RI and southeastern MA, otherwise clearing. Drying out. Highs 77-84. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 55-62. Wind NW to N up to 10 MPH.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 75-82. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Coastal fog possible. Highs 70-77 eastern MA and RI, 78-85 elsewhere. Wind E 5-15 MPH

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 26-30)
High pressure will bring great late summer weather August 26-27 with the area between a departing trough in the Canadian Maritimes and low pressure off the Mid Atlantic Coast. Higher humidity and disturbances moving into the region from the west will enhance the risk of showers and thunderstorms at times August 28-30.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 31-SEPTEMBER 4)
The end of August and first few days of September look humid and slightly unsettled with occasional shower threats as a broad trough moves into the Great Lakes, high pressure is off the Atlantic Coast, and a frontal boundary wavers around the East Coast. Don’t expect this to be a stretch of washed out days, but we may be watching for shower activity on a nearly daily basis.

7:08AM

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 20-24)
A bubble of high pressure will eliminate the thunderstorm risk today, so a very nice day, but a warm front will cross the region Wednesday, causing a spike in humidity and destabilizing the atmosphere significantly. We’ll have to watch for a few storms in the morning and another round or 2 in the afternoon / evening with some potential for severe weather as well. A cold front will cross the region Thursday, and while it doesn’t look like a widespread storm day, we will still run the risk of some activity especially in eastern and southern areas. High pressure from Canada builds in with a dry and refreshing airmass for the end of the week.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Moderately humid. Highs 80-85 coast, 85-90 interior. Wind light variable with coastal sea breezes.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Moderately humid. Lows 66-73. Wind light S.
WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms, favoring early to mid morning and again later in the afternoon. Humid. Highs 81-88. Wind S 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely. Patchy fog. Humid. Lows 62-69. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms, favoring southeastern NH, eastern MA, and RI. Humid. Highs 80-87. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Less humid. Patchy fog evening favoring interior lower elevations. Lows 60-67. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 76-83. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 55-62. Wind light N.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 75-82. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 25-29)
High pressure will dominate but will likely be centered northeast of the region, which means onshore flow and coolest weather coastal areas while inland locations are warmer August 25-26. High pressure sinks southward with an increase in warmth and humidity and eventually an increasing risk of showers/thunderstorms August 27-29.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 30-SEPTEMBER 3)
A boundary between offshore high pressure and Canadian high pressure will bring a shower and thunderstorm risk the last couple days of August before high pressure from Canada temporarily wins the battle to bring drier air in to start September. Temperatures will likely run above normal through this period.

6:33AM

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 19-23)
No, Boston is not about to have a heatwave. They need 3 days of 90+ for that, and they’ll get one, perhaps 2. But in true August fashion, it will be very warm to hot and humid to start this week and that humidity will indeed linger through midweek even as the heat drops off. A series of troughs and eventually a sweeping cold front will be responsible for several rounds of showers and thunderstorms that will range from isolated to as much as a solid line. When will all that happen? Hard to determine until we get into each day and see how things develop, but I can say that we have a shot at a few showers/storms around the first half of this morning, the second half of this afternoon into this evening, a limited risk Tuesday, and a much greater risk Wednesday, which may linger into Thursday. The sweeping front, mentioned above, is due to clear the region sometime Thursday night, allowing a dry airmass to arrive at the very end of the work week on Friday. Forecast details…
TODAY: Variably cloudy. Isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms early to mid morning, again mid to late afternoon. Humid. Highs 78-85 Cape Cod & Islands, 86-93 elsewhere. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers and possible thunderstorms evening. Patchy fog late evening and overnight. Humid. Lows 66-73. Wind light W.
TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated afternoon showers or thunderstorms possible. Humid. Highs 84-91 except cooler Cape Cod & Islands. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Humid. Lows 66-73. Wind light SW.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered to numerous showers/thunderstorms. Humid. Highs 82-89 except cooler Cape Cod & Islands. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Patchy fog. Humid. Lows 62-69. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Humid. Highs 77-84. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Less humid. Patchy fog evening favoring interior lower elevations. Lows 60-67. Wind WNW up to 10 MPH.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 76-83. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 24-28)
Expect high pressure to dominate the weather with mainly dry conditions August 24-27 with a comfortable beginning then a slow build in heat and humidity. Shower/thunderstorm chances increase at the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 29-SEPTEMBER 2)
A boundary between offshore high pressure and Canadian high pressure will bring a shower and thunderstorm risk the last few days of August before high pressure from Canada temporarily wins the battle to bring drier air in to start September. Temperatures will likely run above normal through this period.

11:46AM

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 18-22)
Muggy and buggy. Lots of humidity, and bugs, doing their late season thing. So last night a line of thunderstorms coming out of NY held together much longer than I expected and made it into northeastern MA and even the Boston area as it was finally falling apart. I consider this a big forecast miss, but one I’ll learn from, I assure you. Moving forward, today will be similar to yesterday in that there will be some pop up showers/storms possible, and this evening we may again be tracking a more organized line approaching from the west (will monitor), but it will also be warmer and more humid than yesterday. This is going to lead us to a short stretch of hot weather the first part of the coming week, hottest Monday, then down a slight bit for Tuesday and Wednesday, while humidity stays up, and thunderstorm chances, while lower, will still be there Monday-Tuesday, before going up Wednesday and part of Thursday as a cold front approaches and enters the region. This front looks slow to me, and it may take until the end of Thursday to clear the region.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Humid. Highs 80-87. Wind S up to 10 MPH.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. A shower or thunderstorm possible, especially north and west of Boston. Patchy fog. Humid. Lows 62-69. Wind light S.
MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated afternoon thunderstorms. Humid. Highs 87-94. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Humid. Lows 65-72. Wind light SW.
TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated afternoon thunderstorms. Humid. Highs 87-94. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Humid. Lows 66-73. Wind light SW.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Humid. Highs 84-91. Wind SW 10-20 MPH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers/thunderstorms likely. Patchy fog. Humid. Lows 67-74. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered showers/thunderstorms, favoring southern and eastern areas. Humid. Highs 82-89. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 23-27)
High pressure builds in with a pleasant, dry air mass for August 23-24, followed by a warm-up and increase in humidity August 25-27 as the high slips to the south and east. The only precipitation threat I see this far out as an isolated shower/thunderstorm threat by August 27.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 28-SEPTEMBER 1)
Oh no September 1 appears on my blog! Winter’s coming! Kidding aside, we’ll be in a warm late summer pattern with high pressure off the Eastern Seaboard and plenty of warmth, late summer humidity, and an increasing risk for showers/thunderstorms at times as a boundary to the north and west gets a little closer. I don’t think we’ll be going into a stretch of wet weather then, just increasing the chance of activity compared to the previous 5-day period.