7:05AM

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 11-15)
After 2 warmer days that took away most of if not all of the snow/ice on the ground, mother nature has been putting some of the snow back as a decent slug of moisture has been moving over the region after the passage of a cold front. As of the writing of this blog, the steadiest swath of snow extended from Cape Ann through Metro Boston southwestward to eastern CT and eastward through much of RI and southeastern MA, where up to a few inches of snow will be falling. Back to the west, while many areas saw 1-3 inches, a few 4 to 5 inch amounts were also observed as well. All of this will be clearing out from west to east during the morning and midday hours today, and then we’re into a cold air mass for about 48 hours into Friday as a bubble of high pressure moves across the region. The next low pressure area will be a rather fast-moving system moving south to north and crossing right over southeastern New England. This will happen Friday night through Saturday with a healthy rain event for the region as there will not be enough cold air surface or aloft to support anything frozen. So once again any snow that has fallen with this current system will be gone by the weekend. As the Saturday storm departs via eastern Canada, a gusty wind and cooling air will take place Sunday, with drier conditions except the risk of a passing rain or snow shower.
The forecast details…
TODAY: Cloudy morning with snow ending west to east after additional accumulation of up to 2 inches and locally up to 3 inches, favoring Metro Boston to northern RI southeastward. Clearing west to east this afternoon. Highs 28-35. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 15-22. Wind W 5-15 MPH, gusting 20-25 MPH. Wind chill 0-10 at times.
THURSDAY: Sunny. Highs 28-35. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 0-7 interior valleys, 8-15 elsewhere except 15-20 urban centers. Wind N under 10 MPH.
FRIDAY: Sunshine followed by increasing cloudiness. Highs 35-42. Wind N to E up to 10 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain arriving south to north. Temperatures rising into 40s. Wind E to SE increasing to 10-20 MPH.
SATURDAY: Overcast with rain likely morning. Cloudy with periods of rain and drizzle afternoon. Areas of fog. Highs 47-54, mildest southeastern MA. Wind SE to E 10-20 MPH, higher gusts, becoming variable 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Areas of drizzle and fog early. Rain showers likely. Lows 40-47. Wind SW 5-15 MPH becoming W 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. A passing rain or snow shower possible. Temperatures falling slowly into the 30s. Wind W 15-25 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 16-20)
Dry and cold December 16. Next low pressure threatens the region with snow/mix/rain depending on its track December 17. Lingering snow showers behind this system December 18. Fair, seasonably chilly December 19. Next precipitation threat occurs at the end of the period but too early for details on that possible system.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 21-25)
One or two systems may impact the region during the days leading up to and including Christmas with a couple bouts of precipitation. Leaning toward a colder pattern and systems tracking near or south of the region but with low confidence at this time.

7:29AM

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 10-14)
Day one of a two-day warm up has taken the majority of the snow and ice away, and today will pretty much finish off the job, leaving only snow piles behind, so if you were relying on a December 1-3 snow event to get your white Christmas over 3 weeks later, try again. Well we will likely get some snow back on the ground as cold air returns and some moisture is still in the region Wednesday morning, but I can guarantee you that won’t do it either. As is that snowfall is questionable as usually these types of “behind the cold front” events are. Moisture is streaming up along a front parallel to the upper flow and little ripples in the atmosphere that we can only guess the location of may focus narrow bands of heavier snow while elsewhere very little falls. We’ll also see a little ripple of low pressure pull it all eastward pretty quickly around midday, and it may also never get that far northwest of Boston. We’ll need to see more snowfall closer to the holiday to increase the chance. Having a white Christmas around Boston, while not rare, is also not typical. The chance, based on climatology, runs at about 23%. After Wednesday’s threat, we go dry and chilly for a couple days, and it currently looks like the next low pressure system, due for a Saturday arrival, will be a rain producer.
The forecast details…
TODAY: Cloudy. Areas of fog over any remaining snow cover. Scattered rain showers through midday. Steadier rain arriving later in the day.
Highs 55-62. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of rain, changing to sleet then snow west to east. Lows 28-35. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Cloudy with snow likely morning, accumulation a coating to 2 inches, with an isolated 3 inch amount possible in Boston’s southwestern suburbs to northern RI. Mostly cloudy afternoon. Temperatures steady 28-35. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Widespread icy ground. Lows 16-21. Wind NW 5-15 MPH. Wind chill near 10.
THURSDAY: Sunny. Highs 28-35. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 0-7 interior valleys, 8-15 elsewhere except 15-20 urban centers. Wind N under 10 MPH.
FRIDAY: Sunshine followed by increasing cloudiness. Highs 35-42. Wind N to E up to 10 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain arriving pre-dawn. Temperatures rising into 40s. Wind E to SE increasing to 10-20 MPH.
SATURDAY: Overcast with rain likely. Highs 47-54, mildest southeastern MA. Wind SE to E 10-20 MPH, higher gusts, becoming variable 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 15-19)
Behind the storm earlier in the weekend will come a windy, drier, cooler day December 15, with more cold air settling in December 16-17 as high pressure sits to the north. A wave of low pressure brings a snow/mix threat December 17 to early December 18 with dry weather to follow.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 20-24)
Watching for potential precipitation-producing systems over this 5-day period, but not sure how it will set-up just yet. We’ll have to watch for possible interaction, or lack-of-interaction, between 2 jet streams and there will be a lot to figure out.

7:02AM

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 9-13)
A two-day warm-up starts this week off, but you won’t have sunshine to enjoy it with, just clouds, rain showers, and areas of fog, as a relatively humid southwesterly air flow meets a cold snow cover. But that snow cover will take a significant hit and the mild air and rain will help eliminate icy areas from side roads, walk ways, and driveways. But as a strong cold front passes by to end the brief warm spell Tuesday night, we’ll turn the snow machine back on as moisture lingers to meet the incoming cold, and a light to moderate snowfall is likely through Wednesday morning, enough to have some impact on travel. After this moves out, cold high pressure moves in for Thursday into Friday, but clouds will begin to return later Friday ahead of the next low pressure system, which we’ll discuss in the next section. Onto the details for the next 5 days first…
TODAY: Cloudy. Areas of fog. Rain showers arrive this morning and become widespread through afternoon. Highs 50-57. Wind S 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Cloudy. Areas of fog. Widespread rain showers, some heavy. Lows 48-55. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
TUESDAY: Cloudy. Areas of fog. Scattered rain showers. Highs 53-60. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of rain, changing to sleet then snow west to east. Lows 28-35. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Cloudy with snow likely morning, accumulation a coating to 2 inches South Coast, 2-4 inches elsewhere. Mostly cloudy afternoon. Temperatures steady 28-35. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Widespread icy ground. Lows 16-21. Wind NW 5-15 MPH. Wind chill near 10.
THURSDAY: Sunny. Highs 28-35. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 0-7 interior valleys, 8-15 elsewhere except 15-20 urban centers. Wind N under 10 MPH.
FRIDAY: Sunshine followed by increasing cloudiness. Highs 35-42. Wind N to NE up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 14-18)
We’ve been keeping an eye on the period around the December 14-15 weekend for several days following a potential storm for that time frame. It still looks like one will impact the area initially, but the thinking is a little different from previously. The upper air set-up should allow the initial system to be close enough for mix/rain instead of snow, favoring December 14, with cool-down / dry-out for December 15. Colder air would settle in after that for the December 16-18 period and a low pressure wave coming along around December 17 could bring a mix/snow threat. This reflects a pair of more separated systems instead of two much closer together, but there is still some uncertainty in this part of the outlook.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 19-23)
Watching for potential precipitation-producing systems around December 20 and 23.

8:20AM

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 8-12)
A very cold start this morning, but little wind makes is more easily tolerable if you have to be out. Just watch for continued icy areas where several melt/freeze cycles have occurred after recent snow. High pressure sinking to the south of the region will start allowing a warm-up to get underway, subtly, today, but you’ll also notice more cloudiness arriving with time as the atmosphere above warms up too. This is leading to a 2-day “warm-spell”, which means many areas get to 50+ and have periodic rain showers. This will take care of the ground ice issue, at least temporarily, and also reduce the snow pack significantly. But if you have any snow or ice to chip away or move, don’t wait until after the 2 wet and mild days because by Wednesday, a strong cold front will have passed and not only will it be much colder again, we may already be dealing with more snowfall due to a wave of low pressure on the front. If this still looks to be the case with tomorrow’s update I will put snowfall numbers to it. It does not look like a grand amount of snow, but could be significant enough for transportation impact. High pressure should supply dry and cold weather Thursday.
The forecast details…
TODAY: Sunny start, mostly cloudy finish. Highs 33-40. Wind S up to 10 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Areas of fog forming. Temperatures steady 33-40 evening, rising into the 40s overnight. Wind S 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: Cloudy. Episodes of rain showers. Areas of fog. Highs 45-52. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
MONDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Episodes of rain showers, some of which may be heavy, favoring southeastern MA. Areas of fog. Temperatures steady 45-52. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
TUESDAY: Cloudy. Episodes of rain showers. Areas of fog. Highs 53-60. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Rain and snow showers likely. Temperatures fall through 40s into 30s. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
WEDNESDAY: Cloudy with a chance of snow morning. Variably cloudy with a chance of snow showers afternoon. Areas of black ice likely. Temperatures fall into the 20s. Wind NW-N 15-25 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Significant areas of black ice likely. Lows 10-17. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Sunny. Highs 25-32. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 13-17)
Unsettled weather is expected later December 13 through December 15 with a couple low pressure areas potentially impacting the region. Uncertainty is in place as to the track and exact impact of these storms, and whether it will be dominated by one system or split between a couple, so at this point the best way to word this is just a risk of rain/ice/snow during this period of time and fine-tune going forward. Mostly dry, cold weather follows but a clipper system may bring a snow or snow shower threat by December 17.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 18-22)
Dry, cold weather should start the period. Watching December 20-22 window for a possible more widespread precipitation event.

9:22AM

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 7-11)
A dry weekend, coldest today and tonight, and then moderating Sunday as high pressure, which delivers the cold air initially, slips to the south and starts to help circulate milder air northeastward into southeastern New England. The next storm system is going to take a track through the Great Lakes and help strengthen a southwesterly air flow Monday and Tuesday, which will be very mild but also feature rain showers. Some of the rain may be heavy enough, combined with melting snow, to create some minor flooding. A strong cold front will come through later Tuesday. What remains to be seen is whether or not a wave of low pressure forms on the front to bring a period of snow Wednesday as cold air returns. We should at least see a few snow showers as a weak disturbance comes across the region.
The forecast details…
TODAY: Sunny. Highs 27-34. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 0-5 deepest valleys, 6-11 other interior rural areas, 12-17 most suburbs, 18-23 urban centers. Wind W under 10 MPH.
SUNDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 33-40. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Temperatures steady 33-40 evening, may rise slowly overnight. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: Cloudy. Episodes of rain showers, some of which may be heavy. Areas of fog. Highs 45-52. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
MONDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Episodes of rain showers. Areas of fog. Temperatures steady 45-52. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
TUESDAY: Cloudy. Episodes of rain showers. Areas of fog. Highs 53-60. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Rain and snow showers likely. Temperatures fall through 40s into 30s. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Temperatures fall into the 20s. Wind NW-N 15-25 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 12-16)
One or possibly two low pressure areas may impact the weather any time in the December 13-15 window with a chance of rain and/or snow. Generally dry and cold weather should start and end the period although a clipper low may be near by late December 16.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 17-21)
Clipper low may be nearby or departing to start the period. Next storm signal is around December 20-21 for a rain and/or snow threat.

6:38AM

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 6-10)
Use caution walking / driving this morning as we’ve had another partial melt / refreeze cycle. We’ll have a small clipper low pressure system bring a period of snow to areas mainly near and north of I-90 later today and possibly into early evening, with just a few rain showers toward the South Coast as the low center cuts right across the I-90 corridor. This is out of here overnight and from then into Saturday it will be windy and rather cold. Dress accordingly if doing errands or going to a high school football super bowl game. Moderating temperatures are expected Sunday as high pressure slips south of the region, but more cloudiness will roll in as the atmosphere warms, and this is going to lead us to a mild, breezy, and rain showery couple days to start next week ahead of an approaching cold front.
The forecast details…
TODAY: Clouding over. Snow arrives mainly near and north of I-90 afternoon with a few late-day rain showers to the south. Highs 30-35 north and west of Boston, 35-40 from Boston south. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.
TONIGHT: Cloudy with a chance of snow showers early, then clearing. Snow accumulations of a coating to 1 inch expected near and north of I-90. Lows 10-17. Wind N to NW 10-20 MPH. Wind chill below 10.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 25-32. Wind NW 10-20 MPH. Wind chill below 20 at times.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 15-22. Wind W 5-15 MPH. Wind chill near 10 at times.
SUNDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 33-40. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Temperatures steady 33-40 evening, may rise slowly overnight. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: Cloudy. Episodes of rain showers. Areas of fog. Highs 45-52. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Episodes of rain showers. Areas of fog. Temperatures steady 45-52. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.
TUESDAY: Cloudy. Episodes of rain showers. Areas of fog. Highs 53-60. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 11-15)
A turn to windy, colder, weather behind a strong cold front December 11, with mainly dry weather other than a few snow showers. A clipper type disturbance may bring light snow or snow showers at some point December 12 followed by mainly dry but cold weather. We may be watching a system evolving to the southwest of the region by the end of the period. Watching for the evolution of a storm system over the December 14-15 weekend which may bring a precipitation threat to the region.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 16-20)
Potential precipitation threats early and again late period. Temperatures near to below normal.

7:30AM

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 5-9)
A dry and chilly northwesterly flow will dominate our weather today. It will be bright but with a bite. Please remember to use caution when traveling. The weather may be fair, but with it being cold, especially this morning, there are plenty of areas of black ice and re-frozen packed snow making hazard of some steps, walks, driveways, and side roads. This will probably be the case each morning through the weekend. A clipper low pressure system will move rapidly east southeastward across the region late Friday producing a light snowfall except rain/mix near the South Coast as the low will likely track right over that region and have just enough mild air with it. We’ll have to watch for a narrow area of briefly moderate snow and/or snow showers just in advance of and just behind the departing system. While it won’t put down much snowfall (1 inch maximum expected), it can be timed to slick up some roads for the afternoon/evening commute, especially north of I-90. Behind this system, cold air will be reinforce, and as previously stated, it will be rather cold and blustery for high school football super bowl games Friday night and Saturday. A moderating temperature trend starts Sunday as high pressure slips to the south of the region, but Sunday will be dry, despite an increase in cloudiness. Much milder air will arrive Monday on a strengthening southwest wind, but this will come along with rain showers. This will help take care of the remaining ice/snow on many surfaces it hasn’t been removed from, and while not completely eliminating the snow pack from the recent storm, will make a significant reduction to it.
The forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 33-40. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.
TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 15-22. Wind N under 10 MPH.
FRIDAY: Clouding over. Periods of snow or snow showers except rain/mix South Coast arriving west to east during the afternoon. Highs 30-37. Wind N to NE up to 10 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with a chance of snow showers early, then clearing. Snow accumulations of a coating to 1 inch expected, except no accumulation South Coast and Cape Cod beyond brief dustings early at night. Lows 10-17. Wind N to NW 10-20 MPH. Wind chill below 10.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 25-32. Wind NW 10-20 MPH. Wind chill below 20 at times.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 15-22. Wind W 5-15 MPH. Wind chill near 10 at times.
SUNDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 33-40. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Temperatures steady 33-40 evening, may rise slowly overnight. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: Cloudy. Episodes of rain showers. Highs 45-52. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 10-14)
Cold front approaches from the west December 10 with mild, breezy weather ahead of it along with rain showers. A turn to windy, colder, and dry weather behind the front December 11. A clipper type disturbance may bring light snow or snow showers at some point December 12 followed by mainly dry but cold weather. We may be watching a system evolving to the southwest of the region by the end of the period. This part of the forecast is uncertain, as the period of time this threat exists begins about December 14 and this threat would be here only if the evolution was on the quicker side.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 15-19)
The latest idea is that cold air will be more dominant but some southern jet stream moisture may try to initiate some type of storminess that could pass near to or south of the region with a snow/mix threat somewhere during the first half of this period. We will have to watch for that, and then more dry and chilly weather to end the period.

6:50AM

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 4-8)
Our 3-day winter storm now history, we re-enter a faster-moving weather pattern during this 5-day period with progressive systems moving generally west to east. Today, a trough crosses the region with clouds and a few snow showers. A dry but chilly northwesterly flow dominates on Thursday, a cold early December day. On Friday, the next system moves through. It will be a clipper low pressure system and its track will determine its impact here in southeastern New England. A track further north brings a few snow showers (rain showers south). A track further south brings a more widespread light snowfall. At this moment I’m leaning toward the track further south. Regardless of track, behind this system comes a brief shot of arctic air for Friday night and Saturday, coinciding with high school super bowl football games around the region. By Sunday, as a center of high pressure slides south of the region we’ll already see moderating temperatures, but also introduce more cloudiness. The forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Isolated to scattered snow showers. Highs 35-42. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Isolated snow showers. Lows 24-31. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 33-40. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 15-22. Wind N under 10 MPH.
FRIDAY: Clouding over. A period of snow probable. Highs 28-35. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with a chance of snow showers early, then clearing. Lows 10-17. Wind N to NW 10-20 MPH. Wind chill below 10.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 25-32. Wind NW 10-20 MPH. Wind chill below 20 at times.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 15-22. Wind W 5-15 MPH. Wind chill near 10 at times.
SUNDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 33-40. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 9-13)
High pressure offshore and a trough to the west along with an approaching cold front with low pressure waves on it will result in milder air and rain showers December 9-10. The front will pass by with colder air arriving and a few possible snow showers December 11. A clipper type low pressure system may bring cloudiness and a risk of snow or snow showers later December 12 into December 13, but this part of the forecast is low confidence.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 14-18)
General west to east flow overall but mean ridge position off the East Coast and a minor amount of moisture from a very weak subtropical jet stream may bring a wet weather threat around mid period (favoring rain over snow). This should be the mildest stretch of the month, although not overly warm.

7:15AM

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 3-7)
In mid to late November we talked about a pattern that could potentially put down widespread general snowfall in much of southeastern New England to start December, and that has indeed taken place, or is taking place now, and we won’t be done with the need to watch for additional systems that are able to produce accumulating snow for some time yet. I don’t think that means we’re on our way to astronomical December snow totals for the entire region, but to say the pattern is going to completely shut down in terms of snow production would probably be a meteorological mistake. So our current system is behaving about as was expected late yesterday, with our final snow burst, somewhat variable, occurring this early morning and set to taper off from west to east during the course of the morning, with final flakes having ended an hour either side of noon for much of the region but possibly lingering until 1 or 2 this afternoon for eastern coastal zones. And then we say goodbye to that 3-day event. What’s next? A gusty breeze and chilly December air for the remainder of today and tonight behind departing low pressure, and then a weaker disturbance crosses the region late Wednesday and Thursday, this one only having the ability to produce a few snow showers. But the one behind that concerns me a little more as it will have a bit more moisture and a better chance to get organized, not into a big storm, but a low pressure area that may pass just south of the region during Friday and Friday evening, with enough moisture and cold air combination to threaten an accumulating snowfall for a good portion of the region. At this point it doesn’t look like a big storm, but it’s worth watching for impactful snowfall nonetheless. By Saturday we’re back to wind and cold, so any snow that has fallen or will fall, between lack of a warm-up and low sun angle, won’t be in a hurry to disappear.
The forecast details…
TODAY: Cloudy with snow, accumulating an additional 1-3 inches interior and 3-5 inches closer to the eastern coastal areas with above 5 inches possible on parts of Cape Ann and Cape Cod, before tapering off west to east and ending midday through early afternoon. Breaking clouds later, with possible sun before sunset. Highs 31-38. Wind N to NW increasing to 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 22-29. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, diminishing.
WEDNESDAY: Increasing clouds. Possible snow showers afternoon. Highs 33-40. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Possible snow showers. Lows 25-32. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.
THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of snow showers early. Highs 33-40. Wind N 10-20 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 23-30. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Snow likely with some accumulation possible. Highs 30-37. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Snow showers or snow squalls possible. Lows 18-25. Wind variable becoming NW 15-25 MPH.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 28-35. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 8-12)
High pressure dominates with dry weather December 8 then slides off to the east with a brief warm-up December 9-10, with a couple periods of rain showers possible during that time. Cold front passes and brings windy/cold weather back on December 11 before low pressure approaches later December 12 with a precipitation (probably snow) threat.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 13-17)
Precipitation threat to start this period followed by mostly dry weather mid period and a few snow showers later in the period. Temperatures variable, not too far from normal.

4:08AM

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 2-6)
As we often see, some areas got pretty much what was expected, and others saw a few surprises. For the most part, the first burst of the long-duration storm behaved close to expectation with least snow southeast and more to the north and west. We saw uneven mixing that was driven by precipitation intensity in some cases. But now that part is done and we’re in a long lull with spotty light precipitation through the day today, and then the second burst comes along as what was once the original low pressure to the west triggers a new storm offshore, caught under upper level low pressure briefly so that it does a loop off our eastern shore tonight and early Tuesday. A band or two of moderate to heavy snow will be associated with this and the orientation of the low as it does its loop will determine how much of this band backs into eastern areas, as colder air will have already arrived. Some guidance predicts some pretty heavy amounts, while other guidance keeps the heaviest offshore. Will split the difference somewhat and call for heaviest on the Capes (Ann & Cod) a light to moderate amount over the NH Seacoast and eastern MA, and much less in areas to the southwest and west. Then finally, we’ll be rid of that system, which will leave breezy and cold weather in its wake later Tuesday. The next trough swings through with a snow shower threat later Wednesday to early Thursday with additional storminess occurring too far offshore for any direct impact, and cold air is just reinforced as that takes place. By Friday, a strong cold front will approach and may trigger snow showers or snow squalls by late in the day or the evening.
The forecast details…
TODAY: Overcast. Periods of drizzle and patchy light rain except freezing or frozen drizzle and possible light snow over the interior.
Highs 32-37 interior, 38-43 coast. Wind E to NE 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Cloudy. Mix to snow coast, may be heavy at times. Lighter snow interior. Additional snow accumulation 1-3 inches interior, 3-5 inches coastal areas except 5-9 inches possible Cape Ann & outer Cape Cod. Wind NE to N 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy with snow showers morning. Partly sunny afternoon. Highs 32-39. Wind N to NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Icy areas on untreated surfaces. Lows 22-29. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, diminishing.
WEDNESDAY: Increasing clouds. Possible snow showers afternoon. Highs 33-40. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Possible snow showers. Lows 25-32. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.
THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of snow showers early. Highs 33-40. Wind N 10-20 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 23-30. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Late day snow showers/squalls possible. Highs 33-40. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 7-11)
Shot of cold air with wind but dry weather December 7. High pressure slides to the south with a westerly breeze, chilly but dry weather December 8. Milder with cloudiness increasing December 9 on a southwesterly flow with high pressure offshore. Mild with possible rain showers from approaching cold front December 10. Windy, cold weather returns at the end of the period behind the front.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 12-16)
Low pressure brings a precipitation threat later December 12 to December 13 followed by fair, colder weather mid period and a risk of snow showers with an approaching trough late in the period.

7:36AM

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 1-5)
The final month of 2019 has arrived, and the first winter storm of the 2019-2020 season is about to arrive! There has been no significant change to the discussion posted here just over 24 hours before this one, but let’s try to add a little fine-tuning. We’re still looking at a broad low pressure area with a couple centers to affect the region. There will be about a 1 to 2 hour delay of the precipitation onset due to its need to overcome a lot of dry air at lower levels. This will keep most of the region precipitation-free until dusk or evening, but snow may be making it to the ground in eastern CT, central MA, and possibly southwestern NH while it is still daylight. This may still start as a mix/rain across Cape Cod and parts of the South Coast, but conditions will be borderline there. As things get going tonight, that’s when most of the guaranteed snow accumulation takes place, and I’m still leaning toward a rather quick warming of the lower atmosphere on an east wind for eastern MA and RI, eventually into eastern CT and possibly parts of at least south central MA. And as this happens, the track of the initial low pressure area should be close enough to the South Coast to allow warming aloft to push northward. These conditions should combine to produce a change to rain in southern and eastern areas, but a change to sleet and some freezing rain across interior areas from perhaps northeastern CT through central MA, and at least a mix with sleet in north central MA and interior southern NH. The last 2 areas mentioned will likely stay mostly snow before there is some diminishment in precipitation coverage and intensity during Monday morning. This will occur as the initial low center moves away to the east and a bit of drying is introduced at mid levels, where most of the precipitation is generated. And what as always been the most uncertain part of the system remains so. Colder air will start to nudge back south and east as a second low center, the remains of the original low, head eastward just south of the South Coast. This will probably help trigger yet another redevelopment of some kind offshore which may intensify fairly quickly and track a little further northward, probably doing a cyclonic loop east of New England. The re-organization of precipitation and its coverage and movement in response to this final low pressure area will determine how much additional snow falls on the back side of the system Monday night and early Tuesday as it gets set to depart. Yesterday, and today as well, I’m leaning toward limited coverage for any heavier snow banding, and probably a fight with some drier air being pulled into the system at the same time it’s organizing and moving away. This will hold me back from adding too much in the way of accumulation to the forecast of the back-end portion of the storm, and result in similar numbers for the front-end portion of the snow, which I posted yesterday, and a small additional amount for the back end added to that for a total, resulting in amounts that should break down this way.
…
Cape Cod / South Coast of MA: Coating to 2 inches.
RI and remainder of southeastern MA up the coastline to Cape Ann: 2-4 inches.
I-95 belt and NH Seacoast: 4-6 inches.
I-495 belt from near I-90 westward and northward including interior southeastern NH: 6-9 inches.
North central MA to southwestern and south central NH: 9-12 inches.
…
Can that snow forecast still blow up in my face? Absolutely. If I feel there is a need to tweak it or make even more drastic changes, I’ll re-post it in the comments section of the blog and include it on the next full blog post of course. There are no changes in the thinking of how things run after the storm gets out of here. Breezy, colder weather arrives Tuesday. The next trough swings through with a snow shower threat later Wednesday to early Thursday with additional storminess occurring too far offshore for any direct impact, and cold air is just reinforced as that takes place.
The forecast details…
TODAY: Increasing clouds. Snow, except rain or mix South Coast, arriving mid to late afternoon west to east. Highs 33-40. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.
TONIGHT: Overcast. Snow I-495 belt from about I-90 northward, snow to mix/rain elsewhere, rain most likely closer to the coastline. Lows 27-32 interior, 33-38 coast. Wind NE to E increasing to 10-20 MPH, higher gusts near the coast.
MONDAY: Overcast. Mix/snow southwestern NH and north central MA, mix/rain elsewhere, diminishing but turning back to snow further east later in the day. Highs 32-37 interior, 38-43 coast. Wind E 10-20 MPH, higher gusts, shifting to NE.
MONDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of snow except mix/rain coastal areas turning to snow. Lows 26-31 interior, 32-37 coast. Wind NE to N 10-20 MPH.
TUESDAY: Cloudy start with snow showers likely and a chance of steadier snow for a while mainly NH Seacoast, eastern MA, and RI, then variably cloudy with scattered to isolated snow showers. Highs 33-40. Wind N to NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Icy areas on untreated surfaces. Lows 22-29. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, diminishing.
WEDNESDAY: Increasing clouds. Possible snow showers. Highs 33-40. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Possible snow showers. Lows 25-32. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.
THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of snow showers early. Highs 33-40. Wind N 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 6-10)
A progressive trough and accompanying cold front will push through with a few snow showers late December 6 to early December 7, which turns out windy and cold. High pressure builds in with dry and chilly weather December 8 and still dry but milder weather for December 9. Next system at the end of the period should be a rain shower threat.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 11-15)
Fair and chilly weather returns early in the period. Low pressure trough may bring precipitation threat mid period before fair and seasonably chilly weather follows.

8:13AM

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 30-DECEMBER 4)
On this final day of November, a day which will feature weather similar to the next-to-last day of November (chilly, breezy, and dry), the fine-tuning continues regarding the storm threat that starts off our December. It’s a broad area of low pressure, the center of which will be a redevelopment of a mature / occluded storm system in the Plains, moving eastward and passing just south of New England on a west to east track, but also elongating and occluding itself as it does so due to the nature of the upper level pattern above it. This makes it a longer-duration storm, despite its eastward progression, with precipitation beginning as early as Sunday afternoon and ending as late as Tuesday afternoon. The details of what happens between the start and end window are the puzzle to figure out, and the reasoning for what follows is based on computer models often struggling with precipitation types, low centers, precipitation amounts, and surface temperatures in this “early-season” set-up. So instead of analyzing every piece of data, every model, and reading everybody else’s forecasts to find fault or agreement with them, I’ve resorted to just simple analysis and experience, whatever that’s worth – and I guess we’ll find out what it’s worth in this case. This is how I think it plays out for southeastern New England: Storm’s precip arrives west to east Sunday afternoon and evening as snow most locations, maybe rain or mix Cape Cod and South Coast as surface temperatures will be marginal there. Precipitation intensity picks up rather quickly Sunday evening, still as snow for a good part of the region, and this is when most of our accumulation will take place. Early numbers, maybe a coating South Coast and Cape Cod if it snows long enough, then it goes to rain, a solid coating (1/2 inch or so) up to 2 inches across the bulk of southern and central RI through southeastern MA and right up to Logan before going to rain during the night, 2-4 inches along the I-95 belt including south central MA and eastern CT in general before going to a sleet/ice mix and probably to rain eventually, 4-8 inches for the I-495 belt from its ending near the MA/NH border down to around I-90 and all points west of there before going to sleet/ice mix with potential pockets of plain rain for a while, with greater than 8 inch amounts possible in the highest elevations of north central MA and southwestern NH where it snows for the longest. Once we get into the day Monday, some drying aloft between the newer low and its older parent low still to the west will likely limit the precipitation somewhat, and any snow over the interior will struggle to accumulate. Monday night as the parent low in its dying stage also passes just to the south of the region, it will turn somewhat colder from northwest to southeast and we should see a switch back to snow, but also a gradual break up of the precipitation area into a more patchy or snow showery nature that will linger into Tuesday morning. Additional snow accumulation is possible from this back-end snow but at this time I don’t think it will amount to all that much. There is just enough uncertainty with this part of the system to keep a close eye on it in case it ends up being a little more organized here. Regardless, whatever is left on the ground will do an early December freeze-up as it gets cold later Tuesday and Tuesday night, along with a gusty wind, but it will also be clearing out at that time. Oh yes, I almost forgot, there will be life after “the storm” too so what will the weather do? Well in a fast-moving pattern we’ll already have another trough approaching on Wednesday so look for some additional cloudiness to arrive and perhaps some snow showers, although it already looks like the main energy with the initial system passes well to the north and a new low evolves too far offshore to have any significant impact.
The forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 36-43. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts, diminishing gradually. Wind chill in the 20s in the morning.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 18-25. Wind N under 10 MPH.
SUNDAY: Increasing clouds. Snow, except rain or mix South Coast, arriving mid to late afternoon west to east. Highs 33-40. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Snow I-495 belt from about I-90 northward, snow to mix/rain elsewhere, rain most likely closer to the coastline. See above for snow accumulation info. Lows 28-33 interior, 34-39 coast. Wind NE to E increasing to 10-20 MPH, higher gusts near the coast.
MONDAY: Overcast. Mix/snow southwestern NH and north central MA, mix/rain elsewhere, diminishing but turning back to snow further east later in the day. Highs 32-37 interior, 38-43 coast. Wind E 10-20 MPH, higher gusts, shifting to NE.
MONDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of snow except mix near the coast and still some rain possible Cape Cod. Lows 26-31 interior, 32-37 coast. Wind NE to N 10-20 MPH.
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy morning with passing snow showers. Partly cloudy afternoon. Highs 35-42. Wind N to NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Icy areas on untreated surfaces. Lows 22-29. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, diminishing.
WEDNESDAY: Increasing clouds. Possible snow showers. Highs 33-40. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 5-9)
Low pressure offshore moves away, breezy and chilly December 5 but mainly dry. Trough pushes through later December 6 or early December 7 with a snow shower threat but no major storm, otherwise mainly dry and chilly through December 8 and warming up somewhat end of period.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 10-14)
Passing trough brings rain/snow showers December 10-11. Low pressure system brings snow/rain threat about December 13. Temperatures not too far from normal.

8:00AM

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 29-DECEMBER 3)
If you were out shopping overnight, welcome back! Now get some sleep while the sun shines on this bright late November day! It will be a gusty and chilly one, however, due to air flow between low pressure well offshore to the east and a high pressure area over southeastern Canada. This set-up hangs on through Saturday as well, and then the next in a parade of storm systems arrives during Sunday, and this elongated system will take its time passing by so it will be impacting us through Monday as a precipitation event, and even into Tuesday as a wind event along with a few possible lingering snow showers. The main precipitation shield will likely start as snow for all areas except possibly the South Coast and Cape Cod, and will stay mostly snow in southwestern NH and central MA, while areas to the east and southeast of here eventually see a change to rain due to the warming influence of an east wind off the still relatively warm ocean water. However some of these areas will go back to mix and snow as the storm begins to pull away and it starts to cool down both at the surface and aloft Monday night. We still have a couple more days to work out details on this so I will hold off on snow accumulation numbers beyond just a general idea in the forecast below. Lastly, just a reminder that if you missed the nice celestial sky show, it happens again this evening at dusk in the southwestern sky, with the crescent moon sharing the sky with Saturn, Venus, and Jupiter.
The forecast details…
TODAY: Sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill in the 20s at times.
TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 22-29. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill in the 10s at times.
SATURDAY: Sun and high clouds. Highs 36-43. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts, diminishing gradually. Wind chill in the 20s in the morning.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 18-25. Wind N under 10 MPH.
SUNDAY: Increasing clouds. Snow, except rain or mix South Coast, arriving mid to late afternoon west to east. Highs 33-40. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Snow I-495 belt from about I-90 northward, snow to mix/rain elsewhere, rain most likely closer to the coastline. Light to moderate snow accumulation away from coastal areas especially I-95 belt northwestward. Lows 30-37. Wind NE to E 10-20 MPH, higher gusts near the coast.
MONDAY: Overcast. Mix/snow southwestern NH and north central MA, mix/rain elsewhere. Highs 33-38 interior, 38-43 coast. Wind E 10-20 MPH, higher gusts, shifting to NE.
MONDAY NIGHT: Cloudy evening with any mix back to snow interior, rain to mix/snow closer to the coast, additional minor accumulation possible. Breaking clouds but lingering snow showers overnight. Lows 27-34. Wind NE to N 10-20 MPH.
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy morning with passing snow showers. Partly cloudy afternoon. Highs 35-42. Wind N to NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 4-8)
A progressive low pressure trough will swing through from west to east later December 4 into early December 5 with a few rain/snow showers here and a new storm forming offshore but too far out for direct impact. Next trough, likely weaker, moves through and drives a cold front across the region with a few rain/snow showers either nighttime December 6 or sometime December 7, then high pressure moves in with seasonably chilly weather for the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 9-13)
High pressure hangs on with dry weather to start the period, a disturbance comes through with a minor precipitation threat in the December 10-11 time frame with a broader area of unsettled weather threatening later in the period.

7:41AM

Happy Thanksgiving to all of you!

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 28-DECEMBER 2)
If you’re an early riser on this Thanksgiving morning, especially in eastern areas, you woke up to rainy conditions. That is a lobe of energy traveling southeastward across the area, one the bridge between an old low pressure system to our northwest and a newly developed low that formed and triggered showers and even some thunderstorms over the region last night and is now in the process of turning into a powerhouse storm as it moves away via the Gulf of Maine. As the storm pulls away today and high pressure starts to nose southward from eastern Canada we will set up a gusty north to northwest wind, delivering chilly air. That air is dry and will help push the early wet weather away during the morning and midday, with just a few lingering rain or snow showers possible for any road races and football games. The chilly, dry, breezy weather will continue for Friday and into Saturday as well. And so ends November. When December arrives, we’ll get early practice on tracking a storm that includes some frozen precipitation. No we’re not about to open December with a big snowstorm, but we will have cold air in place as a broad precipitation shield from approaching low pressure arrives late Sunday or Sunday night, and some areas north and west of Boston will see some accumulating snow before warm enough air gets involved to change it to mixed precipitation or rain. Areas closer to the city and to the southeast may start briefly as snow or mix then go right to rain. While this low pressure area will track just south of the region, at this time of year the ocean water, and in this case the upper air, will be too warm to support snow for long over most of the region. However, any unsettled weather can have some impact on people traveling back into the area or heading back to colleges after the Thanksgiving break.
The forecast details…
TODAY (THANKSGIVING): Cloudy early morning with rain tapering to showers. Breaking clouds mid to late morning with passing coastal rain showers and isolated rain/snow showers interior. Decreasing clouds / increasing sun afternoon. Highs 40-47. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill in the lower 30s to upper 20s at times.
TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 20-27. Wind NW 10-20 MPH. Wind chill in the 10s.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind NW 10-20 MPH. Wind chill in the 20s at times.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 22-29. Wind NW 10-20 MPH. Wind chill in the 10s at times.
SATURDAY: Sun and high clouds. Highs 36-43. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, diminishing gradually. Wind chill in the 20s in the morning.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 18-25. Wind N under 10 MPH.
SUNDAY: Increasing clouds. Chance of snow/mix (mix/rain South Coast) late day or night. Highs 35-42. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Snow/mix along and northwest of I-95 going to mix/rain but some accumulation of snow/sleet possible. Mix to rain elsewhere. Lows 32-40. Wind E 10-20 MPH, higher gusts near the coast.
MONDAY: Overcast with rain (possible mix far northwest) morning, tapering to rain and snow showers west to east afternoon, then a steadier period of rain/mix possible southeastern MA and RI late-day. Highs 37-44. Wind NE 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 3-7)
Low pressure to the east, high pressure to the northwest means a gusty breezy with dry and chilly weather December 3. But a west to east pattern moves things along and the next system threatens the region with some rain/snow later December 4 to early December 5, but the early trend is for this system to evolve too far offshore for a significant impact. After that threat, dry and chilly weather is expected

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 8-12)
General west to east flow. Dry weather should dominate in the December 8-10 time frame with unsettled weather (rain or snow threat) later in the period (December 11-12).

9:32AM

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 27-DECEMBER 1)
I’m a bit late with the post this morning so right to it with a quick update. Only minor tweaks for this forecast with everything very similar to yesterday’s update. Mature low pressure moving from the Great Lakes into the St. Lawrence Valley today and tonight sends an occluded front across the region with a couple bands of rain, timed to move west to east across the region to slow any late-day / evening commute. But hey, it’s not snow right? This moves out overnight as low pressure redevelops in the Gulf of Maine then moves eastward. A lobe of energy on what was the old frontal boundary will swing through southeastern New England during the early to mid morning hours of Thanksgiving Day, producing lots of clouds and possibly a couple passing rain or snow showers. This will not be a major factor for morning road races and football games, but the wind will start to pick up during this time and it will be on the chilly side by then, so keep this in mind if you plan to be outside watching or partaking in any of these events. By the afternoon, drier air will be taking over and sunshine will be more dominant, as will a chilly breeze. These breezy and chilly conditions will persist through Friday and into Saturday as the low to the east becomes a beast and a big high pressure area sits in eastern Canada. This high pressure area will initially do its part to hold off the next low pressure area moving toward the region, but clouds will move in by Sunday, and precipitation by Sunday night, which may start as snow over a good portion of the region with just enough cold air in place. Will fine-tune this as we get closer.
The forecast details…
TODAY: Thickening overcast. Scattered to numerous rain showers mainly central MA and southwestern NH later in the day. Highs 50-57. Wind SW increasing to 10-20 MPH.
TONIGHT: Cloudy evening with numerous rain showers west to east, probably in a couple bands. Mostly cloudy overnight with isolated rain showers. Lows 38-45. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts possible.
THURSDAY (THANKSGIVING): Mostly cloudy to partly sunny with passing rain and snow showers morning. Partly cloudy to mostly sunny afternoon.
Highs 40-47. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 20-27. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 22-29. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.
SATURDAY: Sun and high clouds. Highs 36-43. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, diminishing gradually.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 18-25. Wind N under 10 MPH.
SUNDAY: Increasing clouds. Chance of snow/mix (mix/rain South Coast) late day or night. Highs 35-42. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 2-6)
Low pressure should pass just south of the region December 2 but close enough to bring enough warm air in both surface and aloft for a mainly rain event (after a possible start as snow the night before). Will still have to monitor for any changes in the storm track. Windy/colder/drier December 3 behind this system. Next low pressure system threatens later December 4 to early December 5 with rain or snow but may be too far offshore for significant impact. Dry, chilly weather follows this.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 7-11)
General west to east flow. Dry weather should dominate in the December 7-9 time frame with unsettled weather (rain or snow threat) later in the period.