DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 9-13)
Low pressure moves from the Great Lakes into southeastern Canada today. Before we see the main effects from that, we have a chilly morning with patchy fog (ice fog in some locations with temperatures below freezing). There were already some icy areas from yesterday’s melt-water freezing only added to where there was freezing fog. If you venture out early, watch for icy untreated surfaces. This will improve quickly however as a southerly air flow ahead of the aforementioned low pressure area pushes milder air in. The cold front trailing this low will move across our region from west to east late today into this evening, producing scattered rain showers. The front moves through and introduces slightly colder air to the region overnight into Saturday as another low pressure area heads for the eastern Great Lakes. The cooler air that follows the cold front will hang out at low levels as the follow up low elongates and redevelops just south of our region Saturday night and early Sunday, producing mostly rain in our area, but with air just cold enough for a little sleet and or freezing rain over portions of interior southern NH and northeastern to north central MA Saturday night before the temperature warms sufficiently for just plain rain. This will taper off on Sunday as low pressure moves offshore and away from the region. Consolidation of the elongated low and intensification of it will pull colder and drier air into the region with more wind later Sunday into Monday. A few snow showers may occur later Sunday in response to the intensifying low pressure area heading through Atlantic Canada and some lingering instability over our area. Fair and seasonably chilly weather dominates our region early next week.
TODAY: Fog patches and icy spots on untreated surfaces early this morning, otherwise sunshine and patchy clouds, followed by clouds increasing later. Late-day rain showers west of I-95 belt. Highs 42-49. Wind variable under 10 MPH early, then S increasing to 5-15 MPH, higher gusts late-day.
TONIGHT: Lots of clouds with scattered rain showers followed by patchy fog during the evening hours. Clearing overnight with icy patches on untreated surfaces. Lows 30-37. Wind shifting to N and diminishing to under 10 MPH.
SATURDAY: Sunshine followed by increasing clouds. Rain arrives southwest to northeast by late-day. Highs 38-45. Wind N up to 10 MPH inland, E up to 10 MPH coast except SE 5-15 MPH Cape Cod.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain likely but may be mixed with sleet interior northern MA and southern NH evening. Patchy fog. Lows 31-38 evening, then rising slowly. Wind E up to 10 MPH.
SUNDAY: Cloudy early with a chance of rain until mid morning. Clouds break late morning leading to a sun/cloud mix afternoon and a chance of a late-day mix/snow shower. Highs 40-47 in the morning, falling into the 30s afternoon. Wind variable 5-15 MPH shifting to W increasing to 15-25 MPH with higher gusts during the afternoon.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 20-27. Wind W 15-25 MPH, gusts 30-45 MPH, strongest in higher elevations.
MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 33-40. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 19-26. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 35-42. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 14-18)
Trough in the east trends the region colder. Indications are for a storm track mostly offshore but will keep an eye on it.
DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 19-23)
Maybe a better shot at a more significant winter storm around mid period, but too early to be confident. Overall pattern does favor colder weather.
Good morning and thank you TK
28 here, low 26
Ocean: 42
Wordle: fail
My head just wasn’t in it today. I could even feel it.
I’m having trouble concentrating too. Got in 5 but For my fourth guess I put a letter where I knew it didn’t go.
Models are on Again, off again for snow event about a week from now. Not holding my breath.
Thanks, TK. Any predictions of when the rain will arrive around Fenway Park tomorrow? My son and I will be at Fenway Fest all day which is primarily indoors with a lot of transitions between activities being outdoors. Trying to decide on boots vs. sneakers.
Around sunset.
Sneakers it is. Thank you!
Thanks TK.
1,404 ❄️
Getting foggy here now. Is this the “freezing fog”?
There was freezing fog last night.
It is 30 here. If it is still below freezing where you are, then certainly possible.
That depends. Is your temperature at or below freezing?
It was an interesting morning with ice on everything.
Wordle in 4.
Good job. I was totally out of it today. Just was not into it at all.
That’ll teach me NOT to try until I am fully awake and have eaten!!!!! No more trying at 6:30 AM when I have just stumbled out of bed and NOT awake!!!!
AND, today’s word was a common and perfectly fine word.
No trickery there at all.
So far you are our conductor. Very nice 4
I noticed my car windows are frozen but other two cars are not. Odd. But in direct sun, it’ll be gone by the time I head out.
Thanks TK !
Wordle: 4
Great!!!
Excellent Tom.
Thanks JpDave and Vicki !
Thank you TK and happy Friday to all.
Wordle: 3
We have a conductor. Excellent, Sue
Excellent Sue !!
Wow!! impressive!
Thanks TK.
Sunny this AM here but all the tree branches and bushes were shimmering with ice and the DPW trucks had salted the Town roads. Was definitely some freezing fog here last night. And we still have 75-100% snow cover.
Ben Noll
@BenNollWeather
3h
Below-average temperatures will soon return to the central and eastern United States.
As the incoming chill clashes with retreating warmth late next week, a winter storm may form near the East Coast.
https://x.com/BenNollWeather/status/2009611113487634463?s=20
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=500wh&rh=2026010900&fh=186
So, I’m not at all going to focus on the surface features at this time, but rather the 500 mb flow.
Ridge west coast, rather broad trof central and eastern US
Ok, are there are other models giving signals for this general pattern?
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=500wh&rh=2026010900&fh=186
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gdps&p=500wh&rh=2026010900&fh=186
Euro has essentially the same look and the GDPS sort of does.
I think, IF this 500 mb flow verifies, it’s a pattern that can increase the opportunity for east coast storminess mixed with cold air.
And not necessarily a frontal boundary wave or a modest low pressure, but maybe even something bigger that we haven’t seen the last few winters.
As always, we’ll be watching 🙂
Jeff Berardelli
@WeatherProf
16h
BIG pattern change to #cold starts later next week. Models unanimously advertising a steep jet stream dive into the Deep South, combined with a strong West Coast warm ridge. This should drive shots of progressively colder Canadian air southward in the US East starting next Thursday. The depth and sharpness of the jet dive should also allow for the best #snow storm potentials of the season along the Eastern Seaboard, with a few chances “after” the Thursday front. Whether they materialize into anything substantial or not is another story. Nor’easter? We’ll see.
In the meantime the #Gulf Coast and #florida may have some of the coldest air of the season in the week proceeding Thursday’s front.
https://x.com/WeatherProf/status/2009414798845387160?s=20
Yes, exactly !
He said it better than me just above, lol.
0z Euro with a coastal storm next Friday, largely a sideswipe with light snow southeastern areas:
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&rh=2026010900&fh=174&dpdt=&mc=
And then a larger nor’easter around 1/19:
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&rh=2026010900&fh=246&dpdt=&mc=
This year that will be MLK Day! 🙂
And we all know how perfect the guidance is out that far. 😉
12z GFS in on the fun as well with storm threats for next Friday 1/16, 1/20 and 1/23.
This coastal next Friday would be a blizzard for Cape Cod:
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&rh=2026010900&fh=189&dpdt=&mc=
Kuchera Snow:
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snku_024h-imp&rh=2026010900&fh=192&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
Apologies, those runs were 0z…
Juneau, AK has been getting absolutely crushed:
AccuWeather
@accuweather
17h
‘There’s nowhere to put it.’ After 6 feet of snow in December, residents of Juneau, Alaska, are struggling to clear snow from their roofs and boats this week before more snow and rain hit.
https://x.com/accuweather/status/2009396056136855946?s=20
And they have had a few rain storms in between making that snow incredibly dense and heavy to remove.
Wow, reminds me of February 2015 locally.
Wordle in 3
Excellent. Co-engineers. 🙂
Excellent !
GFS operation shows a nice MISS.
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2026010912&fh=177
We’re in that long 1300 or 1400 day streak in Boston without a 6+ inch snowfall.
Nothing scientific here ….. I bet when that next one comes, it’s not going to be 6.1, it’s going to be like, 28.7
And I point to the Red Sox in 2004 for ending the drought, during which they finally beat the Yankees in the post season. Did they beat then 4-2, no, to end that drought, they go down 0-3 and win the last 4.
So, when that snowfall streak ends, it probably will do so spectacularly!
Or with a whimper of 6.01 inches. 🙂 🙂 🙂
lol, yes !!!!!!!!!
Can we pour champagne over Philip’s head when we break the streak? 🙂
We should 🙂
An entire jug of Gatorade!
Thanks, TK!
Thanks, Longshot, for posting the Drought Monitor yesterday.
A wider look shows the Northeast all over the map, literally and figuratively:
https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/CurrentMap/StateDroughtMonitor.aspx?Northeast
Cumberland and York Counties in Maine are in Extreme Drought.
Norton had 43.12″ of precipitation in 2025, more than 8″ below mean. (Source: NWS-BOX NowData).
Wow. Maine is a mess
Nice coastal storm 1/19 on the 12z GFS. …
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat-imp&rh=2026010912&fh=228&dpdt=&mc=
Those threats around the start and end of MLK weekend will be ones to watch over the course of the next week.
Too bad it is the GFS!!!!
I will say one thing, these systems are showing up in all of the models. Here one day, gone the next, so certainly a period to watch.
BUT, I’ll believe any of these when I see it verifying for real. 🙂 🙂
MLK Day/Weekend rarely fails us…unlike Christmas. 😉
Actually, statistics say you’re incorrect.
You’re also doing an apple to orange comparison which due to climatology fails immediately.
Also, for about the 485th time, there is nothing about that 3 day period that makes it more likely to produce snow in Boston than any 3 day period from mid January to mid February.
Figures it’s going to rain tomorrow. Rain storms never miss!
Mark said it TK. I didn’t. 😉
Hah!
LMAO !!
Can’t…..stop….laughing 😀
My son and his wife had a fun time playing Wordle together today:
https://ibb.co/23kn3wb4
I’ve had a similar situation where the pronunciation of the solution is different from all the other possibilities I try.
We know what the last 4 letters are/were. Are there six valid words for that? Just looked it up and found 15 valid words that end in those last 4 letters! WOW!!!
I guess on can label that FUN WITH WORDLE!!
I saw others who had trouble with the first letter. Love that they play together
Well, 12z Euro definitely isn’t a miss for 1/19 either…. 🙂
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&rh=2026010912&fh=234&dpdt=&mc=
Sure isn’t, BUT it isn’t a snow storm either. 🙂 🙂 🙂
Where have we seen this before? Posts about the long term . And speaking of, long range model forecasts rarely verify. I’ll get excited if short term models latch on. 1-2 was from now.
🙂 🙂 🙂
All. Over. Social. Media.
I don’t mind posts about long term, but why do some of these pages want to subject themselves to the feedback they get when more often than not the “what if’s”, which are often taken as “it’s a lock” fail to materialize in the most dramatic sense?
I love talking about potential patterns and their impacts, but there’s a way to do it without making it have this result.
Yes, your audience should have enough common sense to know all the basics, but sometimes the posters are not helping the matter. And I don’t mind catering to an audience that may not grasp the impacts of patterns and sensible weather they produce. Not everybody is born to understand and retain it all. But for goodness sakes, don’t make it harder for them!
Thanks for the rant platform. I didn’t really intend to do that. It just sorta happened. 😉
We allow that. We all need to rant from time-to-time. 🙂
btw, agree 100%
Long term, I think, should be about possible pattern, 500 mb
But specific sfc features, no way.
Long term discussions should focus largely around large scale, longer term indices and their interactions, and the resultant tendencies for the upper air patterns. From that we can start to get ideas about what might happen down where we live, in a very general sense, regarding temperature and precipitation.
That’s all the science is really capable of.
The other day, I saw someone posting and hyping up individual storms and rain/snow lines on the CFS model. The CFS surface forecast, you know the one that goes out to 768 hours. They were hyping storms that were simulated by a single model run beyond 400 hours, 500 hours, 700 hours. And people were reacting like this was a 100% locked in forecast. The return of the winter of 2014-2015. And when that doesn’t come to pass, you know who gets the blame? Me. SAK. JMA. WxWatcher. Pete Bouchard. Any of us that actually do or have done this professionally. We get blamed.
Yikes ! CFS, really ….. wow.
The good news is there are plenty of us who know all in the met profession do a great job.
Weeks
12z glance. Result: No changes with the exception of the potential for it to stay cloudy longer on Sunday than I indicate above. I might have been too optimistic with the breaks in the clouds by a few hours. I’ll keep an eye on that.
The Rams, the 49ers, and the Texans will get road wins this weekend. The home teams will win all the other games. Those are my NFL predictions for “week 19” better known as “Wildcard Weekend”.
Today is the day where Civil Twilight goes just past 5PM. Actually Civil Twilight runs from 6:42 AM to 5:01 PM today.
Nautical Twilight ends at 5:36 PM.
Astronomical Twilight ends at 6:10 PM.
While I have understood the definitions for a very long time, I am not sure I have always understood the significance of all of these.
I think I’ll add one : BBQ Twilight. This is one where I fully get the significance!
I have a co-worker who does the BBQ Twilight thing. 🙂
Obviously an intelligent co-worker. I applaud him/her!
In the case of my co-worker, her, but her husband grills whatever she decides they are having. 🙂
That our climate is different from Northwestern Europe is a given. We all knew that. But just how different is illustrated by the weather the past week or so in The Netherlands as well as the coming week.
It has snowed every day for 7 straight days in Holland. Parts of the northern provinces have had significant snowfall (at least relatively speaking) with as much as 18 inches over the past week in aggregate. Coastal cities or those near the coast have seen an aggregate of perhaps 8 to 10 inches over this period: Rather constant light snow with sleet and freezing rain mixed in. This continues through tomorrow with Sunday being the one day the sun will shine and then a flip to a thaw and normal temperatures return but with … you probably guessed it, light rain every day next week with occasional glimpses of the sun.
It’s hard to describe this to someone who’s never experienced it: Daily precipitation for weeks on end. Not heavy. And certainly some breaks with cameo appearances of the sun. But precious little sun overall.
Very different. I dealt with this daily for years from a forecasting perspective, as the entirety of Europe was part of my forecasting area for agriculture and energy, as well as shipping (port forecasts).
Will wind be a factor in the pats game? Reading that there could gusts to 50 mph.
50 mph gusts would certainly be a factor! Even TK’s 15-25 MPH forecast might be an issue.
15-25 sustained … and the gusts can exceed 30 MPH but it’s unlikely they will reach 45 or greater.
The wind is potentially a factor, but would be equally so for both teams in terms of the kicking game.
Is the wind likely to continue the length of the game?
Yes. It should be like that for the duration.
Thank you.
Rain here.
For fans of Alanis Morissette: She is the headliner on day 1 of the two-day Levitate Music Festival at the Marshfield Fairgrounds. She will be performing on July 18, preceded by Ziggy Marley and several other acts.
Yes ! Saw that today, in fact, on Facebook.
I might even want to go. 🙂
I’d offer a gathering place at my house, but I can’t remember the last time we were home in mid July. My wife has us somewhere with the camper 🙂 🙂 🙂
We were 44 at 6;00. Now up to 49. Has it stopped climbing?
Peaked out. Cold front moving through which will knock it back (not drastically) overnight.