7:47AM
DAY 1 (TODAY)
Storm day. Here is what to expect. Low pressure tracks northeastward and rapidly intensifies today. The center of low pressure will cut across southeastern MA this evening then track across the Gulf of Maine and into eastern Maine during tonight. Breaking down the details:
Precipitation… Areas of snow develop between 4AM and 6AM CT and RI, and between 5AM and 7AM MA and southern NH. Snow increases in intensity and falls at the rate of 1 to 4 inches per hour from late morning into afternoon, but a snow to sleet to rain line will enter Cape Cod and the South Coast by midday then eventually work north northwestward into southeastern MA and eventually to Cape Ann MA to Boston and down the I-95 corridor to Providence RI while snow continues to the northwest and west, then this changeover line will hold in place for a short time as the low pressure area cuts across southeastern MA, then will pull east again at night. Heaviest rain will occur over Cape Cod and far southeastern MA but as it works northwestward a slot of drier air will move up from the south and diminish if not stop the precipitation in RI, eastern MA, and southeastern NH early evening before some snow pulls eastward across northern and central MA and southeastern NH later at night.
Snow accumulation… 1-3 inches outer Cape Cod and Nantucket before rain, 3-6 inches remainder of Cape Cod before rain, 6-12 inches Cape Ann to Boston and down the I-95 corridor to southern and eastern RI and across southern CT before mix/change which may include a period of sleet for some areas, 12-18 inches northwestern RI, central and northern CT, the remainder of MA and southern NH, and areas of greater than 18 inches outside of I-495 especially in central MA, southwestern NH, and areas of western MA as well.
Wind… North to northeast over interior areas, northeast to east in coastal areas in advance of the low pressure area increasing to 25-35 MPH inland and 35-45 MPH coastal areas but gusts above 50 MPH are likely at times interior areas and above 60 MPH near the coast, including some gusts over 70 MPH on parts of Cape Cod. As low pressure crosses southeastern MA along its path the winds will drop off to variable and under 20 MPH near its path, remain northeast to north and still quite strong to its northwest and shift to south and southwest 20-40 MPH and gusty to the southeast of the track. Once the low is offshore, winds will be north to northwest 15-35 MPH with higher gusts all areas.
Coastal Flooding… Minor to moderate coastal flooding at high tide times favoring east-facing and north-facing coastal areas a couple hours either side of this afternoon’s 1:25PM high tide, and favoring north-facing and west-facing coastal areas (Cape Cod Bay) during the near 2AM high tide Wednesday morning.
Damage / Power Outages… Many weakened trees from drought and recent wind events could lose branches or fall. Power outages are most likely in southeastern MA but could occur anywhere.
Temperatures… Late day high temps reach 25-30 southwestern NH and central MA, 30s elsewhere except 40s along and southeast of where the low pressure center tracks, with a 50 possible on Nantucket. Temps tonight fall back to the 20s in all areas from northwest to southeast so areas that saw wetter snow and a change to rain will experience a freeze-up.
DAYS 2-5 (MARCH 15-18)
Upper level low pressure crosses the region Wednesday, then high pressure takes control Thursday and Friday. Next storm threat arrives this weekend but will re-evaluate that for the next update.
WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Highs 30-38. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.
THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows 13-20. Highs 32-40.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 13-20. Highs 35-43.
SATURDAY: Increasing clouds. Chance of snow/mix late. Lows 15-22. Highs 35-43.
DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 19-23)
Snow/mix possible early March 19 and another risk of unsettled weather the middle of the period. Temperatures below normal.
DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 24-28)
Additional unsettled weather most likely the middle of this period. Temperatures below normal.