12:18PM
DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 12-16)
The latest winter storm is upon us, and we’ll get right to it. There is pretty much no change to how I described the situation evolving yesterday. Low pressure moves just south of New England and then rapidly intensifies in the waters just to the east before moving away. We have precipitation today with a rain/snow line which will waver around, stretching from near Boston to RI, keeping southeastern MA including Cape Cod in rain for the bulk of the main part of the storm. A southeastward movement of this line in response to advancing cold air as the storm develops offshore will take place. And the wild card continues to be the amount of back-lash snow behind the storm Monday. The greatest risk of seeing significant snow from this continues to be in areas of northeastern MA to southeastern NH with the Boston area more on the edge. The strong winds will occur and will be most powerful near the east coastal areas including Cape Cod (see below for details on winds and snow accumulations). We will discuss the term “blizzard” in the comments below. Behind this, we’re still looking at a dry and chilly Valentine’s Day Tuesday. The midweek storm threat looks to me like a fairly minor event in comparison to the current one, with a progressive system coming through with snow or snow showers early Wednesday. I’m not totally confident on this yet and will re-evaluate this as we go forward. Looks like dry and colder weather by Thursday if this scenario plays out.
THIS AFTERNOON: Snow and rain, with the line between then from near or just south of Boston to southern RI, possibly moving a little to the northwest. Temperatures generally steady from the 20s northwest of Boston to the 30s to the southeast. Wind E to NE 5-15 MPH interior and 10-20 MPH coast but increasing late in the day.
TONIGHT: Storm continues with snow northwest, rain southeast, and the rain/snow line slowly making its way southeastward, lastly crossing Cape Cod by around dawn. Temperatures steady 20s northwest and 30s southeast evening, falling slowly overnight. Wind E to NE in southern areas, NE to N in northern areas, increasing to 15-25 MPH but gusts over 40 MPH near the coast and over 50 MPH Cape Cod area by morning.
MONDAY: Snow morning and midday will be steadiest and heaviest in eastern MA (favoring northeastern MA) and southeastern NH. Snow exits by afternoon, lastly on Cape Cod. Overcast may thin with sun trying to come out by later in the day. Blowing snow reducing visibility at times. Total storm accumulation for snow 1-3 inches Cape Cod, 2-4 inches southern portion of South Shore to southern RI, 4-8 inches from Providence RI area up to Boston, 6-10 inches northwestern RI through south central MA up to Boston’s immediate western and northern suburbs, 8-12 inches north central MA and southwestern NH, 10-15 inches Merrimack Valley to northeastern MA and southeastern NH with a slight risk of a few spotty above 15-inch amounts near Cape Ann MA to the NH Seacoast. Temperatures fall slowly to upper 10s northwest of Boston and 20s to the southeast. Wind N to NW 25-35 MPH with gusts 40-50 MPH interior, 50-65 MPH eastern coastal areas, with an isolated gust above 65 MPH possible Cape Cod.
MONDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 10-16 central MA and southwestern NH, 16-22 elsewhere. Wind NW diminishing to 10-20 MPH with lingering higher gusts.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 28-35. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy with snow/mix possible morning. Partly sunny afternoon with a chance of snow showers. Lows 15-22. Highs 30-38.
THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Windy. Lows 10-18. Highs 25-32.
DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 17-21)
Weather pattern quiets down with a cold start then some moderation.
DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 22-26)
Unsettled weather returns during this period with a couple rain/snow threats.