8:57PM

SUMMARY…
You want to know what’s next? I’ll tell you. Cold weather and additional threats of snow, but no immediate threats of any blockbuster storms such as the one we just experienced here in southern New England. I see three threats in the pipeline, but only 2 that fall within the 7-day forecast period, so those are the two that will be dealt with here. But first, COLD. A cold night tonight as high pressure settles in behind the departed storm. And a clear sky, light wind, and deep snowcover with very dry air in place combine to allow for very cold air, and that’s what will happen overnight. Bright sunshine Thursday may give way to some high clouds later in the day as a low pressure system in the Great Lakes and Midwest advances toward the Northeast and those clouds will then cover the sky during tomorrow night, leading to an unsettled day Friday. Currently it looks like the initial low pressure area will come in as a north-south elongated system with the main center passing through central New England. It should have enough cold air to work with for some accumulating snow, though fairly minor in amount, during the day on Friday with enough mild air for some mixing or rain along the South Coast to Cape Cod. The wildcard is what happens on Friday night and early Saturday. There are strong signs that the low will redevelop and rapidly intensify just off the coast then move through the Gulf of Maine and into the Canadian Maritimes. The position of redevelopment and rate of intensification will determine how much, if any, back-lash snow reaches portions of southern New England. It looks like a pretty certain bet that much of Maine will get a decent snowfall out of it, and a fair chance that eastern NH and possibly northeastern MA get at least a glancing blow from it, but not sure if that would extend into other parts of eastern MA including Boston. Something to watch closely. Whatever takes place should be moving out by early Saturday, which will end up a windy and very cold day. A core of Arctic air will come by Saturday night and early Sunday with quite a chill. During Sunday, clouds will rapidly advance in ahead of a wave of low pressure coming out of the Ohio Valley. Though it is several days away, I’m leaning toward this system passing south of New England Sunday night and early Monday, but close enough for the chance of some snow into southern New England. It does not look like a big storm based on this thinking, but we’ll have to watch this for any shifts. Another shot of very cold air follows for Monday night through Wednesday of next week.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TONIGHT: Clear. Lows -15 to 0 inland, 0 to +15 coast. Wind calm.
THURSDAY: Sunny until the end of day when high clouds advance from west. Highs 25-30. Wind light variable.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Clouding over. Chance of snow except mix South Coast toward dawn. Temperatures steady 25-30 except rising to lower 30s South Coast. Wind light SE.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Snow of 1 to 3 inches morning and midday except snow/mix/rain with snow accumulation less than 1 inch South Coast / Cape Cod. A period of snow possible northeastern MA into NH at night with additional accumulation. Highs in the 30s. Wind SE to variable 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY: Partly cloudy and windy. Low 10. High 20.
SUNDAY: Sun followed by clouds. Chance of snow at night. Low 0. High 25.
MONDAY: Cloudy with a chance of snow morning. Clearing afternoon. Low 15. High 25.
TUESDAY: Sunny. Low 0. High 20.
WEDNESDAY: Sunny. Low 5. High 25.

2:43AM

POST-STORM…
After so many updates, you’ll forgive me if, for now, I leave out a written summary of the big storm just departing, and provide you with 3 links from the National Weather Service. They will appear below in the comments section.

SUMMARY…
A classic week of Winter weather in southeastern New England. The big one has departed, mostly. There have been lingering patches of snow right into the early morning hours across eastern MA and southeastern NH but it’s finally all pulling away except a few last flakes on Cape Cod this morning. As upper level low pressure still has its influence on the region for a while today, some cloudiness will linger, but a ridge from the west will push this out and sun will increase later. Looking ahead, high pressure will bring a nice Winter day Thursday, but on its heels will quickly arrive another low pressure area from the west. This one will be an elongated system (north to south) and though the primary low center will likely pass over or just north of this area, another low is likely to redevelop just southeast and east of the region, offshore. This spells an episode of snow for part of Friday, a break, and then possibly some back-lash snow from the new storm Friday night to very early Saturday. There is some chance this second feature ends up a little further offshore and not as impacting, but it is something that needs to be watched just due to its expected close proximity. There will be some snow accumulation from the initial system, either way, but it does not look like all that much. Behind this, a shot of very cold air arrives for Saturday into Sunday. Then later Sunday clouds come back as another low approaches from the southwest in a faster flowing jet stream. The track of this is a little uncertain, but I’d favor a southern track, colder air holding, and a chance of snow later Sunday night into Monday. A dry and cold day will follow this on Tuesday, based on current timing.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TODAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny this morning with a few lingering snow showers near Cape Cod. Partly cloudy to mostly sunny this afternoon. Highs in the 20s. Wind NW 10-20 MPH and gusty.
TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 0-10 inland, 10-15 coast. Wind light variable.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 25-30. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Snow morning to midday, a break, then a chance of more snow at night especially eastern MA and southeastern NH. Low 20. High 35.
SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Chance of snow showers early, especially eastern MA and southeastern NH. Low 20. High 25.
SUNDAY: Sunny morning. Clouding up afternoon. Chance of snow at night. Low 5. High 25.
MONDAY: Cloudy with a chance of snow morning. Clearing afternoon. Low 25. High 30.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 5. High 20.

1:56PM

Storm has now pulled most of its snow right into eastern and parts of central MA and southeastern NH as well as eastern CT across RI. The heaviest snow band stretches from the NH Seacoast down through eastern MA including Boston. This band will vary and wobbled around a little as it slowly starts to weaken during the afternoon, and additional weaker bands may try to form into the evening but overall the entire system will begin its departure phase from now through around midnight or shortly after. Another band is still hanging around 495 to near Worcester but should weaken and pull eastward during the afternoon.

Additional accumulations of 3-6 inches are possible under the heaviest bands, with lighter amounts elsewhere where snow continues to fall. This results in total storm accumulations in the 18-25 inch range in many areas but pockets of 25-33 inch amounts in some locations including the 495 belt NW of Boston down through the Worcester area into the far southwestern suburbs of Boston, and in some sections of northeastern MA from Cape Ann down to near Boston and in parts of the South Shore. The 18-25 inch band will include most of Cape Cod except for lesser amounts on parts of the Outer Cape and down across the Islands.

For this update I will post the forecast from before. An evening update will include a fully updated discussion and forecast with a better look at the weekend and early next week, which present a couple more snow threats.

Heading outside to start moving some of the snow, with help thankfully. 🙂 See you this evening!

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
THIS AFTERNOON: Snow, heavy at times, but may mix with sleet/rain Nantucket and even taper off there for a while before resuming as all snow. Blowing and drifting snow with possible blizzard conditions especially eastern coastal MA and higher elevations more exposed to wind. Less drifting where snow is not as fluffy across Cape Cod and the Islands but still considerable blowing snow there. Chance of lightning and thunder at times. Temperatures steady 15-25 in most areas, still coldest to the northwest, but may rise briefly to the lower 30s Nantucket. Wind NE to N 15-35 MPH gusting 45-55 MPH inland, 25-45 MPH gusting 55-65 MPH coastal areas. Peak gusts of 65-75 MPH or even briefly stronger may take place in isolated coastal locations especially Cape Cod.
TONIGHT: Snow ends gradually west to east in eastern areas. Additional blowing and drifting snow. Lows 10-20. Wind N to NW 15-35 MPH, higher gusts.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Chance of snow showers. Highs 25-30. Wind W 10-20 MPH.
THURSDAY: Sunny. Low 10. High 25.
FRIDAY: Cloudy. Chance of snow. Low 15. High 30.
SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 5. High 20.
SUNDAY: Sun to clouds. Snow at night. Low 0. High 25.
MONDAY: Snow early, then clearing. Low 10. High 20.

We have found our jackpot zone! That would be the hills in Worcester County from the city southward along the towns of the eastern slopes of the hills. For a while last night I thought it may not happen and briefly pulled back the amounts, but shortly after that, it got going good there and I had to quickly up the amounts (and hope nobody noticed the oops – hehehe). Seriously, lots of snow out there. At least it is a dry and powdery snow and not clinging to trees and piling up on roofs.

As we had expected, we’re starting to see more pronounced gaps developing between heavier bands. One such gap is extending from part of the South Shore to near Narragansett Bay at this time, with the heaviest snow band just west of there in the I-495 belt to the west and northwest of Boston down toward Worcester and down to northwestern RI.

The rest of this update is just a tweak of the previous forecast, but more to come as the day goes on…

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TODAY: Snow, heavy at times, but may mix with sleet/rain Nantucket and even taper off there for a while before resuming as all snow. Blowing and drifting snow with possible blizzard conditions especially eastern coastal MA and higher elevations more exposed to wind. Less drifting where snow is not as fluffy across Cape Cod and the Islands but still considerable blowing snow there. Chance of lightning and thunder at times. Temperatures steady 15-25 in most areas, still coldest to the northwest, but may rise briefly to the lower 30s Nantucket. Wind NE to N 15-35 MPH gusting 45-55 MPH inland, 25-45 MPH gusting 55-65 MPH coastal areas. Peak gusts of 65-75 MPH or even briefly stronger may take place in isolated coastal locations especially Cape Cod.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Snow ends gradually from west southeast to east northeast, firstly interior MA to RI, lastly eastern MA and southeastern NH. Additional blowing and drifting snow. Lows 10-20. Wind N to NW 15-35 MPH, higher gusts.
TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION FOR STORM: 18 TO 25 INCHES WITH HEAVIER POCKETS OF SNOW MUCH OF EASTERN MA, 10-18 INCHES NORTH CENTRAL MA INTO SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL NH AS WELL AS CAPE COD, 8-14 INCHES NANTUCKET.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Chance of snow showers. Highs 25-30. Wind W 10-20 MPH.
THURSDAY: Sunny. Low 10. High 25.
FRIDAY: Cloudy. Chance of snow. Low 15. High 30.
SATURDAY: Cloudy with snow early then partly cloudy. Low 5. High 20.
SUNDAY: Sun to clouds. Snow at night. Low 0. High 25.
MONDAY: Snow early, then clearing. Low 10. High 20.

Sorry all. Took a few hours off. Verified suspicions of tighter storm with eastward trend overall. Total accumulations being adjusted slightly to include a little less to the west and a little more for Cape Cod. Believe the highest totals will be in eastern MA.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
OVERNIGHT: Snow, heavy at times, especially coastal NH through eastern and southern MA and southward through RI. Some other heavier bands push further west. Blowing and drifting snow. Temperatures steady 13-20 northwest, 20-30 further southeast. Wind NE to N increasing to 15-30 MPH with gusts 40-50 MPH inland, 20-40 MPH with gusts 50-60 MPH coast.
TUESDAY: Snow, heavy at times, but may mix with sleet/rain Nantucket and even taper off there for a while before resuming as all snow. Blowing and drifting snow with possible blizzard conditions especially eastern coastal MA and higher elevations more exposed to wind. Less drifting where snow is not as fluffy across Cape Cod and the Islands but still considerable blowing snow there. Chance of lightning and thunder at times. Temperatures steady 15-25 in most areas, still coldest to the northwest, but may rise briefly to the lower 30s Nantucket. Wind NE to N 15-35 MPH gusting 45-55 MPH inland, 25-45 MPH gusting 55-65 MPH coastal areas. Peak gusts of 65-75 MPH or even briefly stronger may take place in isolated coastal locations especially Cape Cod.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Snow ends gradually from west southeast to east northeast, firstly interior MA to RI, lastly eastern MA and southeastern NH. Additional blowing and drifting snow. Lows 10-20. Wind N to NW 15-35 MPH, higher gusts.
TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION FOR STORM: 18 TO 25 INCHES WITH HEAVIER POCKETS OF SNOW MUCH OF EASTERN MA, 10-18 INCHES NORTH CENTRAL MA INTO SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL NH AS WELL AS CAPE COD, 6-12 INCHES NANTUCKET.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Chance of snow showers. Highs 25-30. Wind W 10-20 MPH.
THURSDAY: Sunny. Low 10. High 25.
FRIDAY: Cloudy. Chance of snow. Low 15. High 30.
SATURDAY: Cloudy with snow early then partly cloudy. Low 5. High 20.
SUNDAY: Sun to clouds. Snow at night. Low 0. High 25.
MONDAY: Snow early, then clearing. Low 10. High 20.

The tweak in this update will be to try to detail snow accumulations a little more. A few of the things that may impact accumulation…

(This is a repost of a comment I made on the previous blog entry.)

1) Tremendous push of dry air that is going to try to eat away the northern edge of the storm for an extra hour or two (though it will be overcome).
2) Very rapid deepening may actually pull the core of the heaviest precipitation a little closer to the storm center.
3) Don’t think it snows as long as Euro and a few other models have.
4) Banding means lighter zones between the intense bands.

These are all minor by themselves but combine to prevent some of the biggest totals. Again, there will be spots that do indeed get a bigger total.

There is a chance the low center actually ends up a shade further east, believe it or not because the low that went by here on Saturday weakened faster than projected by computer guidance. The result is a flow that is displaced slightly east and a trough that tilts ever so slightly less toward the negative. May only be a 25 mile difference in storm track, but it will have an impact. These are just some of the little details I try to work out after the opening broadbrush.

We will still have enhancement of snowfall near the east-facing and north-facing shores of NH and MA, as well as an area along the eastern slopes of the hills from near Worcester MA southward. These are the areas most likely to have pockets above the otherwise general 18-25 inch snowfall total in much of the region. Amounts will drop off to below 18 inches and then possibly very rapidly down to very little at all as head further northwestward into west central NH across to northwestern MA. Still expecting the drop off from under 18 inches western portions of Cape Cod to under 10 inches eastern portions of Cape Cod and the Islands due to mixing with rain.

Other impacts…
Coastal flooding, generally moderate but pockets of major flooding and beach erosion around high tide times, especially east and north facing shorelines.
Power outages are possible, but are most likely in areas with wetter snow and strongest wind, which will be across Cape Cod.

Looking ahead…
Improving Wednesday but clouds may linger along with a few snow showers as upper level low pressure hangs around for part of the day. High pressure brings dry and chilly weather Thursday before another storm system arrives from the west Friday. This one will have a vigorous upper level disturbance with it and may bring a decent shot of snow to parts of southeastern New England especially later Friday to early Saturday. Will monitor this. Active pattern continues beyond that along with a shot of Arctic air Saturday night and Sunday followed by a low pressure wave that may bring a chance of snow by late Sunday, ending Monday.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TONIGHT: Snow overspreads all areas, becomes heavy at times, especially coastal NH through eastern and southern MA and southward through RI. Blowing and drifting snow. Temperatures steady 15-25, coldest northwest of Boston. Wind NE to N increasing to 15-30 MPH with gusts 40-50 MPH inland, 20-40 MPH with gusts 50-60 MPH coast.
TUESDAY: Snow, heavy at times, but may mix with sleet/rain outer Cape Cod and Nantucket and even taper off there for a while before resuming as all snow. Blowing and drifting snow with possible blizzard conditions especially eastern coastal MA and higher elevations more exposed to wind. Less drifting where snow is not as fluffy across Cape Cod and the Islands but still considerable blowing snow there. Chance of lightning and thunder at times. Temperatures steady 15-25 in most areas, still coldest to the northwest, but may rise briefly to the lower 30s Cape Cod and Islands. Wind NE to N 15-35 MPH gusting 45-55 MPH inland, 25-45 MPH gusting 55-65 MPH coastal areas. Peak gusts of 65-75 MPH or even briefly stronger may take place in isolated coastal locations especially Cape Cod.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Snow ends gradually from west southeast to east northeast, firstly interior MA to RI, lastly eastern MA and southeastern NH. Additional blowing and drifting snow. Lows 10-20. Wind N to NW 15-35 MPH, higher gusts.
TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION FOR STORM: 18 TO 25 INCHES WITH HEAVIER POCKETS OF SNOW. LESS THAN 18 INCHES WESTERN PART OF CAPE COD, AND LESS THAN 10 INCHES EASTERN PART OF CAPE COD AS WELL AS THE ISLANDS.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Chance of snow showers. Highs 25-30. Wind W 10-20 MPH.
THURSDAY: Sunny. Low 10. High 25.
FRIDAY: Cloudy. Chance of snow. Low 15. High 30.
SATURDAY: Cloudy with snow early then partly cloudy. Low 5. High 20.
SUNDAY: Sun to clouds. Snow at night. Low 0. High 25.
MONDAY: Snow early, then clearing. Low 10. High 20.

Hi all! I will now commence posting new blog entries every few to several hours through the storm with the latest info here. I will also be updating the Facebook page for those who have access to that.

Many of the updates will just have forecast information or short summaries of what is going on. If I have time, I’ll throw together a full discussion which includes the storm threat for later this week. For now, it’s important that we focus on this one.

As far as the actual weather discussion goes, there are not a whole lot of changes, only a few minor tweaks that for now allow me to just post a forecast.

TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION FOR STORM: 20 TO 30 INCHES WITH HEAVIER POCKETS OF SNOW. LESS THAN 20 INCHES WESTERN PART OF CAPE COD, AND LESS THAN 10 INCHES EASTERN PART OF CAPE COD AS WELL AS THE ISLANDS.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
MONDAY NIGHT: Snow overspreads all areas, becomes heavy at times. Blowing and drifting snow. Chance of lightning and thunder. Temperatures steady 15-25, coldest northwest of Boston. Wind NE to N increasing to 15-30 MPH with gusts 40-50 MPH inland, 20-40 MPH with gusts 50-60 MPH coast.
TUESDAY: Snow, heavy at times, but may mix with sleet/rain outer Cape Cod and Nantucket and even taper off there for a while before resuming as all snow. Blowing and drifting snow with possible blizzard conditions especially eastern coastal MA and higher elevations more exposed to wind. Less drifting where snow is not as fluffy across Cape Cod and the Islands but still considerable blowing snow there. Chance of lightning and thunder at times. Temperatures steady 15-25 in most areas, still coldest to the northwest, but may rise briefly to the lower 30s Cape Cod and Islands. Wind NE to N 15-35 MPH gusting 45-55 MPH inland, 25-45 MPH gusting 55-65 MPH coastal areas. Peak gusts of 65-75 MPH or even briefly stronger may take place in isolated coastal locations especially Cape Cod.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Snow ends gradually from west southeast to east northeast, firstly interior MA to RI, lastly eastern MA and southeastern NH. Additional blowing and drifting snow. Lows 10-20. Wind N to NW 15-35 MPH, higher gusts.
TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION FOR STORM: 20 TO 30 INCHES WITH HEAVIER POCKETS OF SNOW. LESS THAN 20 INCHES WESTERN PART OF CAPE COD, AND LESS THAN 10 INCHES EASTERN PART OF CAPE COD AS WELL AS THE ISLANDS.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Chance of snow showers. Highs 25-30. Wind W 10-20 MPH.
THURSDAY: Sunny. Low 10. High 25.
FRIDAY: Cloudy. Chance of snow. Low 15. High 30.
SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 5. High 20.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 0. High 25.

1:03PM

Since I may post a few extra blog entries during the next few days, The Week Ahead post that appears every Sunday evening (usually) will be a touch early, since we have a very significant storm coming.

COMMENTARY…
I’ll keep this short and sweet. We all know the problems with so many sources of information and the whole media hype thing. You probably don’t need me to remind you what to ignore out there, just make sure you don’t get sucked into the hype vortex that will be spinning a lot faster than the winds of the upcoming storm. Model output of snowfall amounts on air: useless. Comparisons to the Great Blizzard of 1978: useless. If you want to compare the upcoming storm to anything, use one that it will somewhat resemble and will be fairly fresh in your memory unless you were not here. That would be February 2013. A carbon copy? No. But very similar set up and likely result.

SUMMARY…
Let’s break this down in segments.
Today (Sunday)… Arctic cold front passing by at midday has been producing some snow showers from southern NH to northeastern MA and a stray flurry may still visit the Boston area through early afternoon, otherwise just sun and passing clouds and a gusty wind today as colder air arrives. You’ll feel it later today and tonight.
Monday… Setting up the storm. High pressure builds to the north of New England across southeastern Canada and sets up a north to northeast wind, delivering plenty of cold air. A fairly small storm dropping southeastward from the Midwest through the Mid Atlantic will ignite a new storm offshore, south of New England.
Monday night through Tuesday night… The storm. Explosive development of low pressure and a rapid maturing of the system, tracking northward and likely doing a small loop just south or southeast of New England. That, with a high to the north, as the classic set up for the big snowstorm. There may be some ocean-effect snow showers that sneak into eastern coastal areas of MA and NH ahead of the storm’s precipitation during Monday afternoon, but expect the snow from the storm itself to overspread the region from south southeast to north northwest during Monday evening and night, continuing Tuesday, then pulling away from west southwest to east northeast later Tuesday night as the storm center completes its little loop and starts to move away and weaken. Its maximum intensity will be taking place as it is delivering its resultant snow and strong wind to southeastern New England. Another aspect of storms like this is lightning and thunder, and there will likely be some with this one. How much snow? I think we’ll be setting a general 18 to 28 inch snowfall across southeastern NH and most of eastern MA and RI with the exception being Cape Cod and the South Coast with 10 to 18 inches, except 6 to 12 inches on Nantucket. Another area of mostly 12 to 18 inches is expected for north central MA and southwestern NH, though the eastern slopes of the Worcester Hills may see greater than 18 inches. Drifting snow may reach several feet in some locations. Drifting is not only dependent on the wind speed but the wind direction and can be very variable. Keep this in mind if you plan to be out in the storm or when you start your snow removal after the storm. Wind from the northeast to north during the storm will likely max out on Tuesday at 15-35 MPH inland and 25-45 MPH in coastal areas with gusts as high as 55 MPH inland and 65 MPH along the coast, strongest over Cape Cod where even a few stronger gusts are possible. Some wind damage is likely in coastal areas and especially Cape Cod. East and north facing shores will also see minor to moderate coastal flooding at times of high tide. Areas most prone to flooding may see moderate to briefly major flooding. There will be some high swell and large waves along the shore during this event and shortly after it.
Wednesday… It’s over, the sun is back, but it is quite cold. Cleanup gets underway. Be safe!
Thursday… High pressure provides another nice but cold day. Get your cleanup done if you can!
Friday… Low pressure tracks from the Midwest through the Northeast and brings a chance of snow. Not likely a big storm but may have some significant impact, depending on track and timing.
Weekend… Very cold but likely dry weather as January ends and February begins.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
SUNDAY AFTERNOON: Sun and passing clouds. Brief snow flurry possible eastern MA early. Temperatures fall from the 30s to the 20s. Wind W to NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Clear evening. Increasing high clouds overnight. Lows near 0 inland valleys to 10-15 along the coast. Wind NW to N 5-15 MPH diminishing overnight.
MONDAY: Thickening overcast. Ocean effect snow showers possible in eastern coastal areas by mid afternoon. Snow develops South Coast by late afternoon. Highs 15-20 interior MA and southern NH, 20s elsewhere. Wind NE 5-15 MPH increasing later in the day.
MONDAY NIGHT: Snow overspreads all areas, becomes heavy at times. Blowing and drifting snow. Chance of lightning and thunder. Temperatures steady 15-25, coldest northwest of Boston. Wind NE to N increasing to 15-30 MPH with gusts 40-50 MPH inland, 20-40 MPH with gusts 50-60 MPH coast.
TUESDAY: Snow, heavy at times, but may mix with sleet/rain outer Cape Cod and Nantucket and even taper off there for a while before resuming as all snow. Blowing and drifting snow with possible blizzard conditions especially eastern coastal MA and higher elevations more exposed to wind. Less drifting where snow is not as fluffy across Cape Cod and the Islands but still considerable blowing snow there. Chance of lightning and thunder at times. Temperatures steady 15-25 in most areas, still coldest to the northwest, but may rise briefly to the lower 30s Cape Cod and Islands. Wind NE to N 15-35 MPH gusting 45-55 MPH inland, 25-45 MPH gusting 55-65 MPH coastal areas. Peak gusts of 65-75 MPH or even briefly stronger may take place in isolated coastal locations especially Cape Cod.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Snow ends gradually from west southeast to east northeast, firstly interior MA to RI, lastly eastern MA and southeastern NH. Additional blowing and drifting snow. For total storm accumulation expected, please see SUMMARY section above. Lows 10-20. Wind N to NW 15-35 MPH, higher gusts.
WEDNESDAY: Partly to mostly sunny. Highs 25-30. Wind W 10-20 MPH.
THURSDAY: Sunny. Low 10. High 25.
FRIDAY: Cloudy. Chance of snow. Low 15. High 30.
SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 5. High 20.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 0. High 25.

8:53AM

COMMENTARY…
The January 24 rule has worked for most of the region! If you are not sure what I mean, ask in the comment section. I never thought it would work on the actual date but that was just coincidence. That said, clearly underestimated the snow for parts of the region in this one. Fixing that now on a brief update after a very busy week had me physically exhausted and a mystery foot injury slowed me down. Still have to shovel today here in Woburn where we are closing in on 2 inches of snow as of 8:30AM. Anyone wanna help? JUST KIDDING!

SUMMARY…
This is a short version. Slight change to the snow amounts to sink them southward by about 10 miles and adding 1 inch. Perfectly timed moderate to heavy precipitation in a marginally cold atmosphere that this time was just cold enough instead of just too warm lead to a good shot of snow for much of RI and MA including the Boston area. We still will have a mix/change factor that gets up through Boston later morning into afternoon as precipitation gets a little lighter. This area of mix/change should not get too far northwest of the city before it starts to move back to the south and east, eventually crossing Cape Cod by early evening. This will result in some additional snow accumulation, but not too much, as the storm will be moving very rapidly away by that time. After this, a chilly and dry Sunday as was forecast, but then we have to watch very closely for explosive storm development offshore later Monday and Tuesday. Computer guidance has been playing around with how this system will develop, and even though at this stage it is still too early to know details, it has enough potential with it to bring significant snow to parts of the region, and this time in an air mass that will be much colder. Whether direct hit, near-miss, or somewhere in between, as that system departs by the middle of next week it will drag down some very cold air.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TODAY/THIS EVENING: Overcast. Snow to mix/rain northwestward across southern RI and southeastern MA up into the Boston area, then going back to snow from northwest to southeast across these areas later in the day, remaining snow to the north and west, then all precipitation ending from west to east evening. Accumulation 4-7 inches Boston north and west, 2-4 inches to the southeast which includes the immediate coast from Boston south as well as the tip of Cape Ann, except 1-2 inches most of Cape Cod and immediate South Coast, and under 1 inch outer Cape Cod and Nantucket. Highs 32-40, mildest Cape Cod midday. Wind variable up to 10 MPH shifting to N and increasing to 10-20 MPH except 15-30 MPH with higher gusts from parts of the South Shore to Cape Cod.
TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows in the 20s. Wind N shifting to W 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs in the 30s. wind W 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
MONDAY: Increasing clouds. Chance of snow at night. Low 15. High 25.
TUESDAY: Cloudy. Chance of snow. Low 10. High 20.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 5. High 20.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 10. High 30.
FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Low 15. High 35.

7:35AM

SUMMARY…
High pressure will keep it dry and cool across southeastern New England today before a low pressure area express-trains its way northeastward up the East Coast on Saturday bringing precipitation to the region. This storm will track southeast of Cape Cod and be working with a marginally cold air mass. Arrival time: Dawn or shortly after. Departure time: Evening. Type: Depends on where you are, but mainly rain Cape Cod ending as brief mix/snow with little or no accumulation of snow. Rain, turning to snow with up to 1 inch accumulation remainder of South Coast region, mix to rain remainder of southeastern MA up to near Boston turning to snow later in the afternoon before tapering off evening, accumulations 1 to 3 inches in these areas. Snow to mix to snow northwest of Boston. Mainly snow northwest of I 495 in areas north of the Mass Pike, with accumulations 3 to 6 inches in these areas with a risk of a locally heavier amount. A gusty wind early Sunday behind the storm dropping off later as high pressure moves with with more bright weather. Clipper system Monday will redevelop offshore but so far looks like a lighter system, precipitation-wise. Probably all snow except possible mix Cape Cod with that system as it will be colder. Heading into the middle of next week it looks like fair but cold weather will be the rule.

More on the upcoming weekend storm later today.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TODAY: Sunny. Highs in the 30s. Wind light W.
TONIGHT: Clouding up. Lows in the 20s to near 30. Wind light SW.
SATURDAY: Overcast. Snow/mix/rain develops early, peaks in the afternoon, ends in the evening. Accumulations listed above. Highs in the 30s to around 40. Wind SE to E 5-15 MPH early, E to NE 10-20 MPH later but higher gusts southeastern MA.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 20. High 35.
MONDAY: Cloudy. Chance of snow, mix Cape Cod. Low 20. High 33.
TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 15. High 25.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 5. High 20.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 5. High 25.

7:32AM

This is only a forecast update as there are no changes to the actual forecast at this time. A full discussion will come later today.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TODAY: A few flakes of snow end South Coast otherwise mostly cloudy to partly sunny, more sun later. Highs in the 30s. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy to mostly clear. Lows 15-20 inland, 20-25 coast. Wind light NW.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs in the 30s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY: Clouding up. Developing rain/mix coast, mix/snow possible inland, ending as snow all areas night. Greatest chance for precipitation southern and eastern areas. Low 25. High 40.
SUNDAY: Clearing. Low 20. High 30.
MONDAY: Increasing clouds. Chance of snow late. Low 15. High 25.
TUESDAY: Cloudy. Chance of snow. Low 20. High 25.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 10. High 20.

1:21AM

COMMENTARY…
Remember that “window of opportunity” that we talked about starting around January 24 and going into February? Well, the window may not be open yet, but it’s unlocked. Now you know that I am a no-hype forecaster. I don’t believe in throwing details on potential weather events out there too early. Too many things can change over a short period of time with our repeated attempts to simulate the behavior of the atmosphere (i.e., model runs) despite all the technology we have available. The simple fact remains, weather is predictable, but not THAT predictable. So before anybody gets the idea that we’re about to get hammered with snowstorm after snowstorm here in southern New England, let me put this filter in place. Yes, the pattern is getting a little more active, and there will indeed be increased opportunities for significant snow events in the coming weeks. After all, it is Winter, we’re in the climatological cold zone, and well, this is often the time of year that some of our more significant storms develop and travel that lofty highway called the jet stream. None of that should surprise you. Still, that doesn’t mean that every Winter is cold and snowy, and this Winter, so far, has not been all that snowy by climate average standards. It has also shown different moods regarding temperatures with a cold November (some people regard November as early Winter, so for that reason we include it here), a mild December, and a cold January. Back in November, the seasonal forecast issued here indicated that once we got to February we’d see a moderation in temperature from the cold January and also an increased risk of snow events. This may indeed be the pattern unfolding, with the change already underway. But patterns don’t always just flip like somebody turns a switch. These changes often occur in stages. We have seen systems sneak out under southeastern New England (passing to the south) with cold/dry air dominating. We’ve also seen systems that have a more direct impact, but these have been coinciding with brief warm ups and resulted in rain events for much of the region, such as the one that just went by. But since we have seen both of these miss/hit scenarios, does that mean that during the transition we can get a storm or 2, or 3, that take a track that delivers precipitation and cold air at the same time? Absolutely. Will it happen for the entire region? That question does not have a definite answer yet, but in the forecast portion that follows this, we’ll try to figure out if that is going to happen one or more times during the next 7 days. So, what is this about 8 being a lucky number? It refers to MJO, or the Madden-Julian Oscillation, which is in phase 8 at this time. Phase 8 in late January is often a phase in which East Coast storms occur. So there you have it. There are other factors that come into play of course, but up to this point, MJO has not been too favorable or in the phase that would easily allow for East Coast storms to deliver widespread snow to the Northeast. If you want to read more about MJO, please click the 2 links in the comments section below.

SUMMARY…
A weak area of high pressure will force a small low pressure area coming from the Midwest to pass south of New England tonight and Thursday as it redevelops. As the high slips northeastward we will see a northeasterly flow set up in southern New England. The combination of these things will result in a light snow event for parts of the region, with the best chance of accumulating snow tonight along the South Coast and across Cape Cod and the Islands. After this event concludes we’ll see another high pressure area move in on Friday with dry and chilly weather. The next storm threat comes over the weekend, specifically Saturday afternoon and evening, when low pressure, this time infused with Gulf of Mexico moisture, will make a run up the East Coast. Now that does not mean we’re a lock for a big storm here just yet. There are several things to take into account at this stage. They include the fact that model trends do not always mean the correct outcome is being forecast. Also, there are some somewhat reliable guidance that indicate a miss for southeastern New England. At this point, either outcome can be argued for and supported by meteorological analysis. Assuming for a moment that the storm does indeed come close enough, it’s not likely be an all-snow situation as temperatures will be marginal at least at the start, especially in coastal and southern areas. We’ll also be dealing with a very rapidly-moving system, limiting the amount of time precipitation can occur. So as you see, this threat is far from a big snowstorm certainty, and there are details to be ironed out yet. Even further out in the future is another storm threat for later Monday into Tuesday of next week. Early indications are that the air mass would be colder leading to this potential event, but there is still plenty of unknowns regarding this threat, given the fact it’s days away.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TODAY: Sunshine followed by increasing cloudiness. Highs 30-37. Wind light variable.
TONIGHT: Cloudy. A period of snow South Coast, Cape Cod, and Islands with around 1 inch possible but potentially up to a few inches on Nantucket. Occasional light snow or flurries developing elsewhere with dustings and coatings. Lows 18-25. Wind NE up to 10 MPH except 10-20 MPH and gusty Cape Cod and Islands.
THURSDAY: Cloudy to partly sunny. Any snow and flurries ending early. Highs 30-37. Wind NE to N 5-15 MPH except 10-20 MPH and gusty Cape Cod and Islands.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 15. High 30.
SATURDAY: Increasing clouds. PM rain/mix coast, mix/snow possible inland, ending as snow all areas night. Greatest chance for precipitation southern and eastern areas. Low 20. High 40.
SUNDAY: Clearing. Low 20. High 30.
MONDAY: Increasing clouds. Chance of snow late. Low 15. High 25.
TUESDAY: Cloudy. Chance of snow. Low 20. High 25.

8:48PM

SUMMARY…
A relatively mild Monday behind the wet weather system will be followed up by 2 dry and colder days Tuesday and Wednesday as high pressure moves in from Canada. On Tuesday we’ll still have a gusty breeze as the center of the high will be to the southwest of New England while the low that moved by on Sunday continues to mature in eastern Canada. Lighter wind is expected Wednesday as high pressure moves more overhead. A weak low pressure area in the northern jet stream will drop from the Great Lakes to northern Mid Atlantic by late Wednesday then redevelop south of New England Thursday before heading out to sea. This system will be close enough to bring the threat of a light snowfall to the South Coast. In addition, an upper level disturbance and an onshore flow between the new low to the south and high pressure to the north will bring some light snow or snow showers to the remainder of southeastern New England during Thursday. High pressure takes over Friday for dry and cold weather. Confidence drops while trying to figure out what goes on from the weekend into early next week. A first guess is that a southern jet stream storm stays out to sea to the south over the weekend while a reinforcing cold front associated with low pressure in the northern jet stream crosses the region from west to east. Low pressure may approach from the southwest by Monday.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy to mostly clear. Lows 15-20 interior valleys, 20s elsewhere. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 30-38. Wind W 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 10s inland, lower 20s coast. Wind W 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.
WEDNESDAY: Sunshine and high clouds. Highs 30-38. Wind light N to variable.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of light snow South Coast, very light snow or flurries elsewhere. Low 15. High 33.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 15. High 30.
SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Chance of snow showers night. Low 10. High 40.
SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of snow showers early. Low 20. High 35.
MONDAY: Increasing clouds. Low 15. High 30.

10:38PM

SUMMARY…
As another mild storm in a cold month departs in the early hours of Monday, it will set us up for a breezy, cool, and dry Monday holiday (Martin Luther King Jr. Day). There will be a sun/cloud mix and a gusty westerly wind as dry air flows in behind intensifying low pressure in eastern Canada. This low will still be up there and expanding on Tuesday which will be a little colder, dry, and still breezy. What I’m still not sure of yet is how we are affected by a small low pressure area passing south of southern New England at midweek. For now, will play it as I have been previously. That is, a weak system initially with just some clouds around on Wednesday, and a redevelopment of the system to the southeast of New England, but close enough, with high pressure nosing eastward north of the region, to create a northeast wind and lots of clouds for Thursday, but still a limited risk for any snow/mix. Will try to get the details worked out and fine tune this forecast by later Monday. A break should arrive Friday as high pressure moves in with cold/dry weather. Sometime over the weekend expect low pressure to pass close to but probably just north of the region, dragging a cold front across southern New England. It would likely be cold enough for snow showers with this system, provided there is enough moisture available, sometime between late Saturday and early Sunday. Timing may change with this system given it’s a long way from arriving.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
OVERNIGHT: Rain ends southwest to northeast. Clouds break. Lows 35-40. Wind SW to W 5-15 MPH and gusty.
MONDAY – MLK JR DAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 40-45 but cooling back to the 30s during the day. Wind W 10-20 MPH gusting as high as 30 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy early then clear. Lows 15-20 inland, 20-25 coast. Wind W 5-15 MPH gusting to 25 MPH.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 28-38, coldest in hilly terrain northwest of Boston, mildest Cape Cod. Wind WNW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
WEDNESDAY: Increasing clouds. Risk of light snow southern areas at night. Low 15. High 30.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of light snow/mix favoring southern and eastern coastal locations. Low 25. High 35.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 20. High 30.
SATURDAY: Increasing clouds followed by a chance of snow showers. Low 25. High 35.
SUNDAY: Chance of snow showers followed by clearing. Low 25. High 30.

8:12AM

Only changes to this update are to add the risk of some freezing rain interior MA and southern NH through midday as surfaces remain cold and air temperatures are slower to rise there. And of course adding a new day-7 (Saturday. Full discussion on next update later today.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TODAY: A hint of sunshine parts of eastern MA especially coast and Cape Cod this morning otherwise cloudy. Rain developing later morning and afternoon mainly central MA and southwestern NH with scattered rain showers to the east. Rain may freeze on surfaces interior MA and southern NH through midday. Highs 40-45 interior and 45-50 coast but not until late day. Wind S increasing to 10-20 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Overcast with rain, possibly heavy, pushing west to east across the region through late evening, including the risk of thunder, then rapidly ending southwest to northeast overnight. Breaking clouds following. Temps rise into the 40s north central MA and southern NH, 50s elsewhere before midnight. Lows 35-40 by dawn. Wind S 10-20 MPH with higher gusts, shifting to SW overnight.
MONDAY – MLK JR DAY: Sun and passing clouds. Temperatures steady around 40 morning, falling into the 30s afternoon. Wind W 15-25 MPH, higher gusts.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny and windy. Low 18. High 33.
WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Low 21. High 31.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow or rain near South Coast. Low 22. High 35.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 23. High 33.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 16. High 30.