Tuesday August 11 2020 Forecast

48 Comments

7:16AM

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 11-15)

I found myself explaining the difference between a hot summer and a really hot summer a lot around the net yesterday, so a quick overview of that again. We’ve had hotter summers than the summer of 2020 – many of them, and many of them with more intense and/or persistent high heat. This summer, while running warmer/hotter than average, doesn’t quite fit into the classic “really hot” summer category, and here is why. Our “high heat” days have been few, and most of our hot days have featured temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s across the region, with moderate to high humidity, and we’ve had our share of higher humidity spikes as well, though nothing nearly as persistent as the torrid tropical humidity from a couple summer’s ago. There’s a notable difference this summer from some of our other ones that make it seem like there have not been as many breaks, and that is that our weather pattern have been putting high pressure further east in Canada when our cold fronts go through, so instead of getting a direct delivery of refreshing summer polar air from Canada and enjoying a day or 2 of temperatures in the upper 70s to middle 80s with low humidity, we’ve been seeing the air from Canada taking a round-about route via the Canadian Maritimes and over the warmer-than-average Atlantic waters before arriving here on an easterly wind, certainly somewhat refreshing for coastal areas but for the area overall it’s providing a still-humid and not-as-cool feel, which then quickly warms and turns muggy again when the high pressure area sinks to the south. This pattern has been fairly persistent this summer. And when we focus on the next 5 days, it’s really no different. We peak a spell of heat today into Wednesday, break it with a slow-moving cold front Wednesday and Thursday, then “cool it down” with an air flow from the northeast and east at the end of the week. There is no change in my expectation of sensible weather, so since this section is already long enough, just moving on to the detailed forecast after I add this bit of info. If the sky cooperates, the next 3 nights will be the peak of the Perseid Meteor Shower. There will be some interference from the moon, a bit later each night / early morning. This meteor shower peaks between midnight and the first light of dawn, and features thin-looking, trail-leaving, fast-moving meteors that radiate from the constellations Perseus and Cassiopeia high in the northeastern sky. As always, getting away from light pollution is the best way to view them. Good luck!

TODAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Slight chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Humid. Highs 89-96, may turn cooler some coastal areas. Wind SW up to 10 MPH, with coastal sea breezes possible.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy to mostly clear. Humid. Lows 67-74. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon, favoring areas near and northwest of I-95. Humid. Highs 88-95, cooler Cape Cod. Wind SW 5-15 MPH but can be variable and stronger near any showers and storms.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms possible early. Patchy fog. Humid. Lows 66-73. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms possible anywhere late morning to early afternoon then favoring areas near to southeast of I-95 remainder of afternoon. Humid. Highs 82-89. Wind variable up to 10 MPH but can be gusty near any shower and storms.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers favoring the MA South Shore and MA / RI South Coast. Patchy fog. Humid. Lows 60-67. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy start with a chance of showers near the South Coast, otherwise increasing sunshine. Less humid. Highs 78-85, coolest coast. Wind NE to E up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 58-65. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 76-83, coolest coast. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 16-20)

An area of high pressure sinks slowly to the south with the region still in an easterly flow becoming variable August 16 and a variable flow becoming southwesterly August 17 with a slow warm-up and increase in humidity. Wildcard remains whether or not we get some significant shower activity later August 17 or August 18 with a higher humidity air mass and a disturbance, but latest trends look a little less wet to me, and given the drought situation, I’d lean away from significant widespread rainfall in favor of a more scattered shower situation. A little lower confidence at this point but still expecting a warmer westerly flow to arrive later in the period if high pressure to the north is not stronger than expected.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 21-25)

High pressure will be the main controller with mostly dry weather and temperatures running above seasonal averages at least to start this period. More humidity and a higher shower risk may arrive before the end of the period.

48 thoughts on “Tuesday August 11 2020 Forecast”

  2. A thought related to the opening section of today’s blog, and a good example of the persistence of the warmer-than-average temperatures having a significant impact. The higher heights (warmer atmosphere) and lack of ocean influence has allowed locations like Caribou ME to be really warm, and today they will break their record for cooling degree days for the season. Thank you to SAK for the info. He pays attention to a lot more of those details than I get to do. So he, and another colleague who prefers to be anonymous provide me with a lot of the little facts & stats that we can post & discuss here!

  5. When I’m in Sarasota I watch Paul on fox 13. He is an awesome meteorologist. I believe he came from the Boston area.

    1. What is his last name?
      If it is Paul Cousins, then yes he was an on air Met for awhile here in Boston.

  7. Thank you, TK.

    The trees and vegetation are quite stressed. You’ll notice shedding of yellow and brown leaves, and otherwise droopy green leaves. Better get some precipitation or the foliage will be very muted. It hasn’t been this bad in 4 years.

      1. They had some guy on the news saying that if this continues, the leaves will drop and MAY not come back next Spring.

      1. She has been awful since mid June, The best she did was
        the 4 day stretch or so of cool air Earlier. Thank you.

  10. I will “split the difference” with TK and say that this summer 2020 is certainly in the “Top 10” UNCOMFORTABLE summers on record. The inside of my house is about as stuffy as I’ve ever seen it, even overnights. The only occasion I ever felt a breeze was the passing through of Isaias. I would be curious of the “average wind speed” for Logan to date this summer as a season if that can even be measured.

  11. Heat got to me this morning when I tried to sit out for my morning coffee. I really worry about folks who have a difficult time with it and do not have AC.

  13. The heat and humidity is not all that but this year. There have been breaks.

    Vicki, I use to play fortnite with friends and still play it on occasion. Does he play it on a game system or on PC?

  14. We have an official heat wave again. 91 at Logan.

    I see lots of cumulus again. Will it? will it? will it? Nah, wishful thinking!

  15. Well, if I just rip and read the latest 12z GFS verbatim and don´t add in any experience, this projection is doing what has been happening most of the summer …….

    That 2nd trof, in about a week´s time, with what look likes a decent batch of cool, dry air behind it. Well, it never appears to get here as the western Atlantic ridge settles close enough to the east coast to keep warm, humid air moving up into New England.

    Probably reasonable to assume we´re headed this way. The long range projected cooler shots the last 4 to 5 weeks have never really made. The trofs haven´t been as deep as projected in the long range.

    Will see what the 12z EURO shows in the hrs 168 – 240 hr range and see if it starts backing off on this cool shot into the northeast in a similar manner.

  17. Off the top of my head, today makes just about “average” for the number of 90 degree days for Logan. One of the tv mets pointed out that they actually started late which seems hard to believe. I feel that it started on June 1 AFAIC. With no end to the pattern in sight I bet Logan closes in on “1983” levels eventually. I also bet most western suburbs are already or at least very close.

    Having said all this, I did notice that NBC-10 this morning has like 78-82 temps next week. Certainly hope that verifies.

    1. Late start due to SEA BREEZES! Here in JP we have about 4-6 more 90 degree days than the damn airport.

    2. I think today is #13.

      I think 1983 got to 30, so that would require 17 more.

      I agree that the pattern thru early Autumn favors above average temps. Our average high temps are starting to drop off, however.

      Just my opinion, but I could see another 5 to maybe 7 more. So perhaps ending in the 18-20 range is my guess.

      We´ll have to see how it plays out. 🙂 🙂

  18. Mt Washington summit at 64F

    Boston Harbor buoy back to 71.6F recovering from the drop to 56F just after Isaias passed through.

  19. Thanks TK !!
    Hi Vicki, my boys are 14 and 9. They both enjoy playing on the Xbox platform. It’s my 9 year old soon to be 10 on the 1st of September who loves fortnite. We have set his privacy levels set so he can only friend someone with our permission. I’m sure he would love to play with your grands, and I would love to let you have his gamer tag if you want so they could connect. If TK wants to give my email address to you so you can email me I would be fine with that. If he reads this post TK its fine with me, Or you could ask him personally if you are able to.

  20. Yesterday was so discouraging, I had storms approach from all sides, only to have them dissipate or go around me by literally a mile or so, this has been the case most of the summer. Just unfortunate luck nothing more to it. Friends of ours who live 1 1/2 miles away had a downpour. I have noticed along with the lawn going dormant that some of the leaves on the trees have started turning and dropping due to the stress. Also I’ve noticed a lot of acorns dropping earlier than usual.

  22. A comparison between 1983 and this summer will not be even close..
    Not even remotely close.

  23. Hot but not “that” hot. Yesterday, Boston & Worcester had hot weather but considerably shy of the record highs for the date of 101 & 97, respectively, both set in 1949. That 97 at Worcester in 1949 is remarkably hot for that location.

    On a different topic, you may recall some time ago I mentioned that we’d be getting into a pattern that is somewhat more conducive to MCS occurrences including the chance for derecho formation. Yesterday’s derecho was definitely not the strongest one we’ve seen, but it was significant. It’s been a while since we’ve seen some really legit ones. Here is a visible satellite picture from TERRA pass earlier today. Crop damage is clearly visible in wide swaths in Iowa. This is mostly corn, and some wheat/grain. The “good” news is that some of the earlier planted crops were mature enough that they can just be harvested quickly and sold mostly as livestock feed. This loss would have been far more substantial had this event occurred about 2 to 4 weeks earlier.

    https://scontent-bos3-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t1.15752-9/117357394_3223623704387169_2354780859921518385_n.jpg?_nc_cat=109&_nc_sid=ae9488&_nc_ohc=UCu6d0oVTr4AX_aS_-a&_nc_ht=scontent-bos3-1.xx&oh=a6c83b89555260e1b3ff00efc4f67a75&oe=5F591D4D

  24. Kind of curious what CPC was thinking when they went above normal precip for August for New England on their 30-day outlook update issued July 31. Don’t agree. Won’t agree. Can’t agree.

  25. Model-related observation: During this repeating pattern of putting high pressure north of New England when we break our heat spells, the ECMWF has often forecasts dry conditions with low pressure pushes further south, while the GFS has often forecast showery conditions with low pressure much closer and less influence from high pressure. In pretty much every case, the ECMWF has been correct with the drier scenario.

    For the upcoming Aug 14-16 period, the same forecasts are there, drier ECMWF, wetter GFS. I again side with the ECMWF.

    1. Indeed, and the low pressure areas haven’t been that far south of us, but enough not to impact us. There’s been normal rainfall in places like DC, I believe. But, as the lows attempt to move up the coast they’ve been shunted south and east of us. Sooner or later this will change.

      I still don’t see crisp evenings in the long range. I’m pining for upper 40s/low 50s at night. Maybe at some point in September.

      1. Well since 40s and 50s at night are extremely rare in the summer here, it will be a while. 😉 We’ll get a taste in September at some point.

  26. As expected, definitely less activity in the convection department than we saw yesterday. However, there were a few nice storms around initially when things first fired off. Can’t dismiss the possibility a few more pop ups occur. There are a still a few healthy-looking cumulus dotting the landscape.

  27. Thanks TK! Lots of interesting discussion points here today.

    We’ll see in 3 weeks where everyone sorts out for meteorological summer. The theme of the summer has definitely been consistently very warm but with little extreme heat. Still, in my mind it’s the average that is most important, and I suspect many places will have a top 10 hottest summer, probably some top 5’s.

    Amazing what a difference a couple hundred miles makes on rainfall. If you look at the drought monitor map, the area of “None” over the mid-Atlantic is almost a perfect cut-out of my CWA here, and that difference will likely only become more pronounced over the next couple of updates. Flash Flood Watch here tomorrow for more drenching downpours in an area that really does not need it.

  28. SC and Matt. It’s my seven year old grand who is really into fortnite. I just talked to him. He uses Xbox too. He plays with his dad and his dads friends so plays a bit older than a seven year old I think.

    I’ll message TK on FB tomorrow. And will put from Vicki in email subject line in case it goes to spam

  29. Well at least I can watch the PPD Bruins game from work tomorrow. 😛

    I’m a bit worried about debris from the NY/VT thunderstorms messing up the Perseid meteor shower view later. We’ll see how that goes.

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