Halcyon Days Arrive Early

78 Comments

9:50PM

We’ve entered a new weather pattern, a quiet one for now, dominated by the northern (polar) jet stream. Only weak systems will come along with this jet stream, with very slight chances for any rain or snow shower activity. The southern (subtropical) jet stream will be well to the south, keeping most storminess away from New England.

Boston Area Forecast…

OVERNIGHT: Partly cloudy. Low from near 20 inland valleys to lower 30s Boston. Wind NW under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. High 45-50. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Low 40-45. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly to mostly sunny  Temperature steady 40-45. Wind NW 10-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Low 15-20 inland valleys ranging to near 30 Boston. Wind calm.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. High 37-42. Wind W 10-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 24. High 44.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 27. High 41.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 31. High 44.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 27. High 45.

78 thoughts on “Halcyon Days Arrive Early”

  4. Just to clarify, a new weather pattern is not necessarily a new regime. We’re still in a regime that is the milder side of normal, temperatures-wise, as we will still have some form of SE Ridge trying to come back again and again. A regime can be thought of as the mean of patterns over a fairly long period of time. The new pattern is a week to 10 days of northern jet dominance and southern jet suppression. We’ll see where things go from there. I’m still in the mode of thinking that eventually the SE Ridge tries to rebuild, we see a battle between that and polar jet energy pressing ENE, and we get a phase of the 2 jets somewhere along the way with a legitimate precip threat, possibly snow. The most likely time for this to take place is right around the solstice.

          1. Vicki,

            We were picking dates for the Regime change.

            Therefore, I defer to TK for determining when
            that occurs.

    1. Why does every declination map say different, my earliest sunset In the declination table has dec 7th at 4:12pm, today it’s 4:13

      1. Not sure why……the day loses 54 sec of sun at Boston, but the sunfast, of shifting of the solar day to later in the day is 27 seconds. Thus, both the sunrise and sunset, if all things were equal, would lose 27 seconds today, but with the solar shift, the sunrise is 54 sec later and the sunset has no change. So, I guess technically, yesterday and today’s sunset are tie for earliest of the year. Sunsets start gaining seconds tomorrow, while sunrises lose time for a few more weeks yet.

  7. Happy Anniversary, Vicki! 🙂

    And another reason for it to be a great day today – earliest sunset today (or yesterday). In any case, days start getting longer, ‘though I don’t think it’s that noticeable for a long time yet. Although I look forward to the longer days and summer, I would really like to see some snow. A lot of snow. One or two blizzards would be nice before spring. One thing I am wondering is that once we get a decent snowstorm, will that set up a snowy pattern into the end of winter. Oh, well – have a great day everyone!

    1. Thank you rainshine!!! You are so nice to remember 🙂 We had rain during the day followed by a noreaster and thundersnow at night – it was GREAT……oh the wedding was incredibly special too 🙂 See what my poor husband puts up with :/

          1. Ok – thanks! I think I remember the storm.

            Marc and me were married on April 20, 1974. The weather was fair and seasonable from what I recall. But our wedding was beautiful!

  8. I should have stuck to my guns (gut feeling) and not fallen for wishful thinking. It’s probably not going to snow the rest of this month. Nor is it going to be consistently cold. In fact, not only will it get above 50 today in Boston, I can see that happening fairly regularly between now and Christmas (and that is bordering on ridiculous). I see the SE ridge reestablishing itself after a brief shot (a few days) of seasonable temperatures. I think that Tom may be accurate about December shaping up to be one of the warmest on record. Has there even been a frost in Boston this December? Surely not last night, as there were no signs of frost on my run very early this morning. There will be limited frost this weekend, but only someone from San Diego would call this weather cold or chilly. I am sorry I sound a little irritated, but this weather is bothering me.

    1. As I have been saying all along John! Maybe January we get into the regime change, but unlikely to go above normal snow for the winter itself. That SE ridge is pretty much here to stay indefinitely until spring at least to some extent.

      Yes, Boston has had a frost albeit barely…it got down to 31F last month. I don’t remember the date though. Boston should see 20s Saturday night.

  9. I was watching Dylan Dreyer this morning and noticed something very interesting on the satellite/radar loop. There was rain (green) directly over the Great Lakes and snow (blue) over the land masses. I have never seen that phenomenon before. The only explanation I can come up with is that the water temps over the lakes must be considerably warm so far just like our ocean waters (50F). I always assumed those lake temps would be quite bone chilling by now.

    As for the early sunsets…I am going to miss them but I still have about the next week and a half to enjoy them. There will be a very noticeable change between Christmas Day and New Year’s. I believe it is a good 15-20 minutes difference between the two holidays.

    Have a good day everyone! 🙂

    1. Latest Off Shore Bouy Info:

      8443970 – Boston, MA
      (BHBM3) 42.355N 71.052W
      Last Updated: Dec 9 2011, 8:00 am EST
      Fri, 09 Dec 2011 08:00:00 -0500
      Temperature: 38.3 °F (3.5 °C)
      MSL Pressure: 1027.8 mb
      Water Temperature: 48.7 °F (9.3 °C)

      Buoy A0102 – Mass. Bay/Stellwagen
      (44029) 42.52N 70.57W
      Last Updated: Dec 9 2011, 7:04 am EST
      Fri, 09 Dec 2011 07:04:00 -0500
      Temperature: 41.5 °F (5.3 °C)
      Wind: South at 11.2 MPH (9.72 KT)
      Wind Chill: 35 F (2 C)
      Visibility: 1.60 miles
      MSL Pressure: 1026.4 mb
      Water Temperature: 48.7 °F (9.3 °C)
      Wave Height: 0.5 m (1.64 ft)
      Dominant Period: 3 sec

  11. 06Z GFS has something for the 22nd and again around the 25th.
    Of course these features are a long way out, but at least we can watch
    and see IF anything develops with these.

      1. It’ll give me more hope that I can convince my SIL and nieces boyfriend to jump in the water on New Year’s Day. My son is working and I have a strong feeling if he could be there he’d go in for the polar dip.

  13. Not sure if anyone noticed that La Ninia has gotten a little stronger recently going from .4 to .7, not sure how much an impact that will have but something to think about. Also the NAO seems to moving in the right direction over the next 10 days or so.

  16. 12Z GFS now has some features showing something for Dec. 18th, 20th and 24th.
    Perhaps we can hit on one of them for a White Christmas??? Again, it is a long way out and it changes with each subsequent run, but from run to run there seems to be
    some action coming out a ways, even if each run differs on days and timing. We shall see.

        1. This is the 12Z NAM for 7PM tomorrow evening.
          This is about as close and any precip gets according
          to this model. Wondering what they are looking at:

          http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=index&image=&page=Param&cycle=12%2F09%2F2011+12UTC&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=850_temp_mslp_precip&pdesc=&model=NAM&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=033&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M

  19. Brett Anderson’s long-range “clues” forecast does not look promising at all for New England, right through early January. There is cold air in Canada, but it looks like it’s locked in place in all but the last of the maps. The last map shows a little promise in that some of the cold appears to be spreading towards Labrador and other places in our `vicinity.’ Caveat: There’s a bulge of mild air to our west and northwest that won’t go away. Could this become one of the mildest winters on record? And not just for New England, but for a large swath of the country. Way too early to tell. But, without there being much movement in the cold airmass I’m beginning to wonder.

    1. I wouldn’t be a bit surprised.

      Pattern change? Hmmm. let me see, what is it now?

      Boston, Logan International Airport, MA
      (KBOS) 42.38N 71.03W
      50.0 °F
      Last Updated: Dec 9 2011, 12:54 pm EST
      Fri, 09 Dec 2011 12:54:00 -0500
      Weather: Mostly Cloudy and Breezy
      Temperature: 50.0 °F (10.0 °C)
      Dewpoint: 35.1 °F (1.7 °C)
      Relative Humidity: 57 %
      Wind: from the South at 20.7 gusting to 27.6 MPH (18 gusting to 24 KT)
      Wind Chill: 43 F (6 C)
      Visibility: 10.00 miles
      MSL Pressure: 1024.8 mb
      Altimeter: 30.27 in Hg

      1. That would be the current conditions ahead of a cold front that is on a northern stream system which is indeed part of a new pattern. A northern-stream dominated pattern. I did not say regime change, and I also did not say we were plunging into persistent below normal temperatures. This is in fact a pattern different from the one we were in for the last few weeks. The best way to tell between this new pattern and the old one will be total precipitation over the 10-day period starting yesterday, versus most other 10-day periods previous in the last couple months. That is the difference from this pattern to the one we just left. The overall regime is still in place.

  22. With the South-southwest wind tonight, I think tonight is a relatively mild night and with sun tomorrow, I wonder if 44F turns into 46F or even 47F. Sort of like in the summer, when the cool air actually arrives a day after the cold front passes…..

    I’m interested also in the trends for the midweek storm next week, that as of now, looks headed for the midwest. I’m curious to see, as a few more days pass, if that turns into a warm surge up the east coast, with a 60F high and a 50F low sometime very late next work week.

    1. Retrac, Um, Did you forget?

      Logan recorded 1.1 inch of snow during the Oct 29-30 event. lol
      So they made it already.

      1. my bad o.s.

        i must be having a moment. thanks for calling me out. hopefully nobody else logs on tonight.

  25. OS I saw the info online earlier today and did not save the website. I was swamped at work do will look for it tonight.

  26. saturday mix of sun and clouds highs in the low 40s .
    saturday night clear skies lows in th mid 20s to low 30s
    sunday cooler with highs in the 30s lows in the 20s
    monday clear highs in the low 40s, lows in the 20s and 30s.
    tuesday though wednesday highs in the low to mid 40s lows in the 30s and 20s
    thursday sunny ,increasing clouds highs in the 30s and lows in the 30s chance of rain and/or snow later at night
    friday highs in the mid 40s lows in the 30s. chance of rain
    Models are hinting at next weeks possible weather maker will be to warm for snow across southern new england but snow could still mix in.

    1. but i do see after this storm a more active pattern and they could be more messy storms than plain rain storms. really far out but these possibilities were mentioned above in preivious posts. that i have read .

  27. There will be a lunar eclipse Saturday morning at 2:00 am…the next will occur in 2014. I will be getting up around 3:00 am or so to get ready for work, so I might as well check it out.

    Will anyone else here try to see it?…or do you care to wait another 3 years? 🙂

  29. I hate to say this but I have to come terms with the fact that this not looking good right now for prolonged cold, can’t even talk snow bc I can’t find anything that resembles it in the near future!! Urghhhh

    1. that’s perfect Hadi! you’re urghhhh matches the expression on your avatar. lol.

      you’re right about those maps. really looks pretty lame.

  30. On the way back home, hit a few rainshowers. Neat night sky, moonlight is shining thru some of the holes in the clouds. Interesting to see the temps around the region, 40s in eastern Mass, yet some 20s in central and western Mass with calm winds.

  31. The 4 major reporting stations (Logan, Worcester, TF Green and Hartford, CT) at 10pm are all in 40s. It would appear that they are all going to have readings at midnight that are slightly higher than the normalo highs. So, I think Sunday may be the only day with highs that are below normal to this point for December. I think today (Friday) is going to average 6 to 7F above normal for each of the four locations.

  32. I know its too late to join the December snow prediction, but I think its going to be a trace at Logan at most. The GFS hints at the southeast ridge reestablishing itself in some sort of way and if true, I have a feeling its going to flex its muscles and send a few more storms to the west of New England the 3rd and 4th weeks of December. I could see a temperature departure of 6 to 9F above normal for December at all 4 climate reporting stations.

    1. I agree Tom. I have been calling for a storm sometime in the last 2 weeks of the mounth, this will be plowable for all of us. Snow in december has been almost certain the last four years, and to boot always around christmas. I will bet anything this happen’s. And I also believe we come near normal for snowfall not below. My gut feelings rareladyy let me down. I also think Jan and Feb will be the worst with March bringing an early wet spring. Again only going by gut feeling here, so take from it what you want. I also believe things are already possibly setting up for are December snow. I think people will be caught off guard when old man winter shows up. I think it will be one of those sneak up storms that gets us within the next 2 weeks.

      1. Hi John.

        Yes, I think I saw Pete Bouchard last week showing a chart that featured the snowfall amounts the last 4 years and they were all greater than 15 inches….

        I’m with you on February and March. I think then, the pattern features more negative NAO and thats when the cold and some snowy weather arrives.

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