Wednesday February 10 2021 Forecast (7:24AM)

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DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 10-14)

High pressure brings fair and cold winter weather today. One low pressure area will pass south of the region Thursday, but may be close enough to bring a touch of light snow into the South Coast region before moving on. A follow-up low will pass even further south of the area on Friday with no snow threat. High pressure slides back in for fair but cold weather Saturday. Sunday, we’ll have to watch for a storm system coming at us from the southwest, but it’s uncertain at this point how significant this one will be for us. It does have some potential as it should have more connection with southern moisture – something to watch and fine-tune the next few days.

TODAY: Early clouds eastern areas, otherwise mostly sunny. Highs 26-33. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clouds return. Lows 12-19. Wind NW under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. A bit of very light snow possible South Coast. Highs 24-31. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 13-20. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 23-30. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 11-18. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 24-31. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 17-24. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Cloudy. Snow/mix/rain possible. Highs 25-30 north, 30-35 south. Wind NE 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 15-19)

Windy/cold/dry February 15 behind the late weekend storm threat. February 16-17 is the next storm threat – more detail to come in days ahead. Dry/cold February 18-19.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 20-24)

One or two more possible precipitation threats during this period. Temperatures near to below normal.

56 thoughts on “Wednesday February 10 2021 Forecast (7:24AM)”

  1. Good morning and thank you TK.
    At the moment, models are not too
    impressed about Sunday. I hope things come together. We shall see if they get more excited with the 12z runs.

  5. The 16th-17th looks quite interesting.
    To avoid a change to rain, we need a nice coastal to develop
    sooner. GFS is more favorable, while the Euro had the coastal develop too late/too far inland. Still time. That one could be juicy.

  11. TK been revisiting artists from the 80s to see if they have new music that’s any good. Bananarama has a pretty low key pop synth album from 2019 called “In Stereo”. Worth a listen.

  12. Thanks TK.

    The struggle between the AO and the ENSO is very evident this week. Extreme cold air outbreak over the central US while the Southeast ridge finally asserts itself at the same time. The definition of a “battle zone” pattern. Shows up well on the NWS headlines map. Patterns like this are often prolific ice producers, and this one will be no exception.

    https://www.weather.gov/

  13. Thanks TK.

    I would not give up on Sunday yet at 4 days out. At 12z yesterday, the GFS had that system as a coastal hugger. Watch the NAM at 84 hours…it’s much closer and more robust. Possible hint this one is going to come back closer. This is what happened with the Superbowl storm as well.

    Also wouldnt get too concerned about the GFS and Euro now showing a cutter for next week. That should trend back east and will have coastal redevelopment. Worst case it ends up a thump of snow and ice with a change to a bit of rain at the end.

    I do think what happens with Sunday will impact the Tuesday/Wed system. Either way, the storm next week looks juiced!

  15. I see a bunch of cutters/inside runners in response to that
    damn SE ridge. We have the cold, but no good to us.

    Hope the looks changes over time.

    1. I don’t see any pure cutters happening with all that cold to the N and W, and blocking in place. Perhaps some initial inland runners that hit the block with late coastal redevelopment that result in a snow to mix type storm here but I’d be really surprised if a cutter train sets up.

    1. This is kind of how the mean storm track has been playing out this winter + – so no reason to think it would change much in the short term to me anyway.

  19. Looking at the 12z runs NY may pull ahead of Boston in the snowfall standings. It is real close
    BOS 32.7
    NY 32.2

  22. Looks like NYC will pull ahead this week in the `Kentucky snow derby.’ But, odds are in favor of Boston being the ultimate winner, based on history and spring generally coming earlier to NYC than Boston.

    In the late 1990s I commuted every week from Boston to Philadelphia. I would often do this by train. In March, the difference in weather and just overall feel between Philly and Boston was shocking. Not only were flowers often out but the temperature was frequently balmy or at least in the 50s in March in Philly. By the time the Amtrak train went past New Haven it was like a totally different climate. And when I arrived in Boston, I’d exit the train and really feel the 20 degree difference, especially when there was that frequent onshore breeze. On top of all that, during this period in the late 1990s it often snowed in Boston in March/April and practically never did in Philadelphia, or NYC for that matter (though NYC did have some snow).

    In sum, if I were a betting man I’d wager that Boston beats out NYC in the snow race.

  23. Agree with Mark that the present pattern is not conducive to a train of cutters. There may be 1 or 2, but I think we have some very decent snow chances coming up. The most important ingredient, in my view, is cold. And that’s firmly in place for the foreseeable future. Positioning of lows is obviously important. But with a train of high pressure areas passing to our north it would appear that at least a few lows will be positioned favorably, either as redeveloped lows off the coast (mother to parent low passing the torch) or simply as lows the cross to our south. The lows’ crossing trajectory is not always flat.

  24. NAM also is SOUTH of us for Saturday night into Sunday.
    Sure there may be some flakes in the air, but it is a MISS!!

  25. I didn’t look really but in case nobody posted anything above, all the tsunami warnings have been cancelled in the wake of the major quake in the Loyalty Islands region.

    Weather thoughts as of mid-late afternoon…

    Thursday threat: barely a graze S Coast, otherwise miss.
    Friday threat: miss.
    Sunday threat: light to possibly moderate snowfall.
    Tuesday threat: faster-timing, best potential of the bunch.
    Wednesday/Thursday threat: Will probably end up further south than today’s guidance shows.

    Summary: Cold pattern, active, but no blockbusters in the pipeline.

  26. Dutch meteorological institute – KNMI – now says 75% chance the period of cold in the Netherlands will end by Monday next week as the southwesterly takes over and the area of strong high pressure retreats. That’s a big change since yesterday’s forecast. The Dutch KNMI usually relies on a blend of models, and of course experience forecasting, as well as historical data.

  27. 18Z GFS is a MISS for Sunday

    https://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2021021018/090/prateptype_cat.conus.png

    Trying to run inside for the 16th-17th. We’ll see what kind of coastal can develop, if any.

    https://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2021021018/138/prateptype_cat.conus.png

    Spouts a coastal, but it’s pretty tight to the coast. Plenty of up front snow, no matter what happens.

    https://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2021021018/144/prateptype_cat.conus.png

    Goes over to a Sleet Fest

    https://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2021021018/147/prateptype_cat.conus.png

  28. JPD – the Dutch KNMI forecasts are in Dutch, but parts of their website are translated into English. Most of the stuff that’s translated refers to the history of the institute, information on climate change, etc … https://www.knmi.nl/home

  29. Harvey thinks Saturday night late / Sunday am event at this time looks like it could be a light event but obviously needs watching .

  30. The official Service Change Notice (SCN) was released by the NWS today concerning the upcoming major upgrade to the GFS, scheduled for the 12z run on March 17 barring any setbacks. I’m excited for this upgrade. I’ve found the “parallel” data from the new version to be quite good and generally better than the current operational GFS. Most colleagues I’ve talked to who have used the parallel data have expressed a similar sentiment.

    The increase in vertical resolution is a huge step.

    https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/pdf2/scn21-20gfs_v16.0.pdf

  32. Nice hit on the 00z GFS for the Tuesday system. Cold track to the SE of us with heavy snow and a brief changeover to mix/ice in the middle of the system, especially for southern areas. 10-12″ for most areas verbatim.

    Surface:

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat&rh=2021021100&fh=132&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    Kuchera Snow:

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snku_024h&rh=2021021100&fh=144&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    Sunday system still looks like just a period of light snow on both the 00z GFS and NAM with a general 1-2″.

    1. Another 4-6″, then mix and rain with that one next Friday. Doubtful that will end up a massive cutter as modeled…I would expect that to trend less amped and further SE with the track as well.

  34. 00z UKMET is good for a couple inches of snow Sunday and then has coastal redevelopment off the Delmarva for the Tuesday system with a low track over ACK. Looks like about 6-10″ for most of SNE before some mixing.

  35. 00z Canadian is a mess. Has some strung out moisture Monday and basically has lost the Tuesday storm. Then a cutter with rain for next Friday.

    Toss!

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