Sunday March 14 2021 Forecast (6:58AM)

60 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 14-18)

Welcome to Daylight Savings Time! Reminder: NWS has issued a Red Flag Warning for high fire danger again today and this will likely be the case tomorrow as well. The combination of drying ground, dry air, and gusty wind will result in conditions that any brush fires can develop easily and spread quickly. Weatherwise, a quick update today – no significant changes to yesterday’s discussion and forecast. One more cold front swings through the region today with a few rain and snow showers this afternoon and another surge of cold, this one of deeper arctic origin and will remind you of the March 2 cold shot as we get a lot of wind later today through tonight and Monday’s temperature fails to make it back to freezing in much of the region. Low pressure approaches Tuesday but should lose the battle to dry air over the region, though we’ll deal with more cloudiness toward midweek, and then a stronger low pressure area will approach by Thursday with a better chance of mix/rain arriving.

TODAY: Sunny start then variably cloudy. Scattered rain and snow showers late morning through mid afternoon. Highs 40-47 in the morning then temperature falling through the 30s in the afternoon. Wind W 10-20 MPH morning, shifting to NW and increasing to 15-25 MPH with gusts 35-45 MPH afternoon.

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 11-18. Wind NW 15-25 MPH with gusts 35-45 MPH. Wind chill near to below zero at times.

MONDAY: Sunny. Highs 25-32. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, diminishing gradually.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clear evening. Increasing clouds overnight. Lows 15-22. Wind N to NE up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 38-45. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 28-35. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 40-47. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 25-32. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Cloudy. Mix/rain arriving, may change to snow at night. Highs 33-40. Wind NE 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 19-23)

Rain/mix/snow possible to start the period from one low pressure area then drier for the balance of the period. Temperatures near to below normal as we’ll tend to be on the colder side of a boundary between a cold eastern Canada and a warmer US Southeast.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 24-28)

The overall regime will keep us in a battle zone between lingering winter cold in Canada and warmer spring weather in the US Southeast, again typical for this time of year. This pattern leaves us vulnerable to quick weather changes and temperature swings.

60 thoughts on “Sunday March 14 2021 Forecast (6:58AM)”

  2. Abnormally dry conditions have returned to the Berkshires. Hopefully we can get some widespread precipitation opportunities with one final snow event amongst them.

  5. Nice to see WP “on time” for a change. Our postings are usually an hour off either way on the first day of the clock changes.

  9. Thanks Tk .I have enjoyed a full two day weekend as I’ve been working 6 days a week & I worked 3 12 hour shift in a row last week .

  11. Thanks TK!

    Somewhat quietly, tomorrow is going to be a pretty impressively cold day for this time of year. Also, maybe even more impressive will be the dryness as dew points dive well below 0.

    In terms of the continued brush fire threat, the cold temperatures help to a decent extent. But there may be more reason to be concerned in the weeks ahead as we warm up and remain pre- leaf out. If the Thursday system gets shunted south, which I suspect it might, the pattern looks extremely dry through the rest of the month.

  15. Power outages isolated overall tonight, but keeping in mind that there are some weakened limbs from the last wind event that may not have broken – even with gusts less powerful than March 1 & 2 we may still see some of them go.

    1. The wind and the snow with that one was pretty intense. Came here after it visited you in Sutton.

    1. Snowing a bit in Back Bay. It’s been a while since we had any precipitation, and this isn’t much but at least it’s something.

  25. Thank you, TK!

    Looking forward to my early morning run tomorrow. Gotta take advantage of every last gasp of winter.

  27. I had about 3 snow showers before the biggie moved through here. Large graupel (nearly as long as a penny), transitioned to regular flakes, quite the squall, dropped 0.3 inch mostly in 10 minutes.

    I acquired time lapse, regular video, and slow motion video of the event. 🙂

  28. Coming down good in pembroke & the wind is tossing everything around such as my furniture that just got tossed off the back deck . The house is shaking

  29. Does the strongest wind come thru with the snow squalls? I thought Dave Epstein said biggest gusts for Boston would be between 3 and 5 this afternoon.

    1. There are the convective wind gusts with the snow squalls, and then there will be the pressure gradient gusts this evening & tonight.

    1. Well the convective is variable depending on where you were. The heaviest snow showers had the stronger wind (much like a downpour of rain, it drags the wind from above down to the ground). The gradient wind will be around for several hours but it’s hard to say how frequent the strongest gusts will be.

  32. Had surfaces been cold the past few days, roads and sidewalks would have been quite hairy with those heavy squalls. I bet Logan records a Trace officially though.

  33. Mid-afternoon point forecast from NWS was incorrect, calling for rain showers and no mention whatsoever of snow.

  34. We had 2 snow squalls.

    The first had decent duration and intensity.

    The second lasted even a bit longer, but didn´t snow as hard.

    Shady spots probably got anywhere from 1/10 to 1/4 inch of snow and the trees were briefly whitened.

    Best squalls of the winter.

    2. I can confirm regarding the squalls. The wind is another story it is just absolutely cranking everything it has here in pembroke!!

  37. I have been checking the Denver weather since early this morning. At 6am the city had only 3 1/2 inches. Apparently some dry air got involved and had to get eaten away. Of course that wasn’t forecasted and as of last night Denver people expected to already have a foot of snow. It’s all going according to plan now with lots of heavy snow and blizzard warnings issued.
    But the Mets weren’t looking too good early. (First to start Thursday night, then Friday night, then lot’s falling Saturday….just some light rain showers occurred, then a foot to fall overnight Saturday into Sunday.

    Why am I posting this, you might ask. Well, many of us are refugees from the old ‘BZ blog where the ignorant anti-Mets comments drove us away. So, I started reading one of the Denver TV station blogs (channel 9) and it looks like some of the not too weather intelligent people have migrated to Denver. This is one of the posts:

    I see the Meteorologists Are Morons crowd has gone silent. Apologies welcome but not expected.

    Sound familiar? They don’t get to visit here with TK and therefore have no idea that the weather has never been wrong. It does what it wants to do, when and how it wants to do it. The trick is to read it’s mind…not so easy as TK said yesterday about forecasting in the Denver and other areas.

    The funny thing is that it is going to work out perfectly for the forecasters as far as total snow is concerned….just not exactly how it is processing itself.

    So let’s be extra thankful that we have this great Met leading us and teaching us. Thanks TK!

    1. You are a gentleman and an excellent writer. Very kind words which I thank you for. I’m glad you are part of the blog. 🙂

        2. I also am very happy you are part of the blog. Loved your post. Some might be a bit surprised that I’m not fond of criticizing Mets. 😉

  38. Tk what’s the Statius with the wind here I mean these gusts are insane it literally feels like my windows are going to blow in , it’s getting worse with each passing hour . Absolutely no exaggeration the wind gusts are incredibly STRONG!!!!

    1. Very similar to, maybe just a half-shade below what we had on March 1-2 but it won’t last as long this time. Nice tight pressure gradient passing through the region overnight.

        1. I’ve noticed it is more sporadic. The early March wind event was definitely more consistently gusty.

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