DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 24-28)

Short discussion today so you can get outside to enjoy the one nice day in the weekend split! High pressure is now offshore of the Middle Atlantic and will provide our area with a very nice spring today today before low pressure spoils the second half of the weekend with overcast and wet weather. The pluses about the low pressure area will be that any rainfall we get helps, though this still does not look like a system that will reach its maximum potential as it will be moving quickly and not really linking up with energy passing north of here until they are both well beyond the region. Monday will be our blustery day behind the low and ahead of approaching high pressure. High pressure sits atop the region Tuesday with fair weather. There’s a little question in the forecast today as to whether or not that longer stretch of dry weather takes place without interruption. I hesitate to buy into it too quickly but it is showing up on a few sets of guidance, and that is a frontal boundary from the north approaching by Wednesday, which would be at least clouds and possibly a shower threat. I’m only going to nibble on this a bit for today’s forecast then re-evaluate. If something like that did happen it would be an example of guidance often being questionable beyond day 3, and is also typical for springtime anyway.

TODAY: Sun and high clouds. Highs 67-74, cooler Cape Cod and a few other coastal areas. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 47-54. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Cloudy. Rain arriving southwest to northeast during the morning, tapering to drizzle late in the day. Areas of fog. Temperatures steady 47-54 or may fall slightly. Wind E 5-15 MPH with gusts around 20 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 37-44. Wind N 10-20 MPH and gusty.

MONDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 54-61. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 38-45. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sunny. Highs 65-72. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 48-55. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 67-74. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 29 – MAY 3)

A considerable shift in guidance between yesterday and today regarding the weather for the last couple days of April and first few days of May. Previous indications were for high pressure to sit over the region with dry and warm (cooler coast) conditions to end April then low pressure to evolve and sit south of the region with a cooler more general easterly flow developing but a struggle for any rain to get this far north. Today’s guidance likes the idea of a frontal boundary nearby with a battle between 2 high pressure areas, one to the south, one to the north, more cloudiness here, and at least some risk of a couple episodes of wet weather for the last couple days of April, and this pattern remaining in place into the first few days of May as well. I’m not sold on this yet, even though it shows up on more than one model. Leaning toward scenario number 1 for this update. Re-evaluation tomorrow.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 4-8)

It goes without saying since I am not making any big changes in the 6-10 day forecast period that I will leave this section alone for now as well. Expecting low pressure to the south but whether it comes far enough north for occasional wet weather is not certain. This forecast will also have to be re-evaluated for the next update.