Monday May 24 2021 Forecast (7:24AM)

23 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 24-28)

The last “work week” of May has arrived and we’ll see a cooler week overall than the previous week was. We do remain in a fairly dry pattern, though a couple rain chances are there, generally surrounding air mass changes. We’ll see two distinctive air mass changes surrounding a spike of heat and humidity on Wednesday. But first, Canadian high pressure provides us with a pleasant day to start the week today. As this high slips to the south, a warm front will approach the region later Tuesday. We’ll already have warmed up from today’s temperatures by tomorrow just from return flow on the back side of the high, but the warm front will bring more cloudiness and eventually a chance of passing showers sometime Tuesday night to the early hours of Wednesday before it passes, and opens the door for the brief return of heat and humidity. A cold front will cross the region Wednesday evening, likely accompanied by some showers and thunderstorms, and definitely followed by somewhat cooler and drier air for Thursday as another Canadian high builds north of the Great Lakes but extends eastward enough to push the heat and humidity away. However, that frontal boundary will be fairly close by still and with the high pressure area taking its time moving any further southward initially, the door is open for a disturbance to move up into the area on Friday with clouds and possible showers. I’m not highly confident that this scenario takes place yet, however, but it’s possible.

TODAY: Sun and passing clouds.. Highs 62-67 coast, 68-73 inland. Wind NE 5-15 MPH, diminishing and becoming variable.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear to partly cloudy. Lows 47-54. Wind variable to SW increasing to 5-15 MPH with higher gusts overnight.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 68-73 South Coast, 74-79 elsewhere. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Lows 58-65. Increasingly humid with dew point rising toward 60. Wind SW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of late-day showers/thunderstorms. Humid – dew point over 60. Highs 85-92 except cooler South Coast. Wind SW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers/thunderstorms early, then clearing. Lows 50-57. Wind shifting to NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 75-82. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 52-59. Wind N 5-15 MPH becoming variable.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Highs 61-68. Wind variable to SE 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 29 – JUNE 2)

The computer guidance for the May 29-31 Memorial Day Weekend continues to “disagree” on the solution and resultant weather. The scenario I am leaning toward right now is dry weather all 3 days with Canadian high pressure in control, but with its center to the north, at least through Sunday, with a general easterly air flow and near to slightly below normal temperatures, but it may not be as cool as it could have been since the ocean temperatures are running on the milder side of normal and probably won’t change by then. The atmosphere may warm a bit further, depending on the position of the high pressure, by Memorial Day itself on May 31. Confidence is still not super-high on this outlook so adjustments may occur. Looking ahead to the first couple days of June, a bit warmer and a bit more humid, maybe a shower threat at some point as a disturbance approaches from the west after the high pressure area gives way.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 3-7)

A frontal boundary may be hanging around the region with a few opportunities for showery weather. We need rain as our wetter pattern in April and the start of May has vanished on us and we’re trending back into abnormally dry to near drought again with each passing day without widespread significant rainfall.

23 thoughts on “Monday May 24 2021 Forecast (7:24AM)”

  2. Thanks TK and SAK !

    I hope you are both correct with your fairly optimistic outlooks for Memorial Day Weekend.

  7. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Currently 62 here in JP. A wee bit of a difference from yesterday.

    1. Oh dear. I was just exchanging an email discussion with a friend who is also a runner…not ultra marathon….about the mid-trail ultra marathon in October. The farm I often mention in Sutton….Whittier….is a stop along the way.

      My son has friends who have participated in some of the more unique marathons

      https://ultrasignup.com/register.aspx?did=81098

  10. Thanks TK. SPC with a good chunk of sne in a marginal risk for Wednesday. My mom was 11 when that tornado went through the bunker hill section of Waterbury where she grew up.

  11. I just had a look at the 12z GFS !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    These past 2-3 weeks of weather have made me forget my disdain for usual eastern Mass May weather.

    BUT !!!! the 12z GFS has rain Saturday and a high of 50F at Boston and lingering drizzle and low clouds Sunday and a high of 56F !!!!! DISGUSTING !!!!!!!!

    I knew it ! Too good to be true. The ONE weekend of the month of May that tends to be extra outdoors and crapville New England weather is probably going to return !

    Does this come close to a JpDave winter rant ? I hope so 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

    1. The 12z EURO is slower moving the rain eastward and more suppressed.

      However, its still with the idea of low pressure to the south, cool high pressure to the north and probably a cloud shield at some point to at least dim the sun for a while.

      EURO projects 56F for Logan at 2pm Saturday afternoon, cooler to the west and southwest with probably thicker clouds and/or some light rain.

      I don´t like either projection, but of the 2, hopefully the EURO is a better projection as of now.

        1. That being said, it probably will happen.
          Figures on a long Holiday Weekend. Perfect timing.
          You may get a rant out of me this weekend. 🙂

  12. It was nice to open the windows and get all that nice dry
    air flowing through the house. Ahhhhhhhhh

      1. We were going to reschedule, but didn’t want to chance it.
        Today and tomorrow will be fine, so we’re on for Wednesday. We’ll keep windows open tomorrow night and get it really cool in the house. Hopefully it will be ok.

        thank you.

  13. Can’t complain too much. It’s been the sunniest spring I can recall, without much heat.

    By contrast it’s been bloody awful in Northwestern Europe. The British Isles have experienced the worst of the weather, with rain (and quite cool) every day now (in most places) for a stretch that goes back to early April. Most of the rain is in the form of light, periodic showers, and the sun does make cameo appearances. But you get the picture. Not a pleasant period for the Brits. My daughter told me that they haven’t experienced two consecutive sunny days since early last October. I remember her saying to me in late December, “it’s so nice to see the sun. Boston is so sunny compared to London. London never has a cloudless sky in December.” So true. I recall being pleasantly surprised during the winter of 1995-96 – my first one back in the Boston area after many years overseas – when bright sunny, cloudless and cold days were interspersed with some days and nights with heavy snow. Glorious. The way winter is supposed to be. I had forgotten that winters weren’t all gray and dreary.

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