Rapid increase in hospitalizations continues in the Netherlands, Belgium, and now Germany. As I said about 4 weeks ago, when reviewing the data from parts of Europe, I could tell something was up and that it would not remain confined to low vaccination countries in Eastern Europe. Whether the latest resurgence is fueled by AY. sub-lineages or not (I suspect it is in part), we don’t know definitively. But, it’s obvious that even high barriers of immunity can’t stop the coronavirus.
Yet, bizarrely I’ve been seeing many American epidemiologists say the pandemic is waning and that we won’t have another wave. Hubris. I must say, after so many errors in forecasting, before I would even utter such a prediction I would hedge my bets. Better still, don’t predict. Urge caution and hope for the best.
Thanks as always Joshua! Any “off the cuff” thoughts as to whether this pandemic begins to wane sometime in 2022?
Yes, it will. I will stick to that `prediction.’ 2022 will be better than 2021, especially once we get to spring.
Thanks TK!
In parts of Michigan Covid-19 has seen gradually (but steadily at times) increasing over the past 4-6 weeks. Also, in Western NY state. What do these places share in common? They both do really good virus sequencing. And, they’re both showing that the AY. sub-lineages are outcompeting the original ancestral Delta – B.1.617.2. Roughly 55-60% of cases in these regions are of the AY. sub-lineages, and 40-45% are B.1.617.2. If you think this isn’t going to happen in Massachusetts, then you’re deluding yourself. It’s probably already happening and after this gray and rainy week of weather (people migrating en masse indoors) it will likely accelerate a bit.
The good news is that it’s a gradual displacement, the AY. sub-lineages are only an estimated 10-15% more transmissible, AND, last but not least, none of the sub-lineages appear to evade vaccines any more than B.1.617.2 does.
With regard to the DESE extending the indoor mask mandate until January 15, 2022, if I understand correctly, only 7 school districts so far have actually applied for waivers (with 80% vaccination rate).
Does this mean that those districts that applied for waivers can “unmask” after 1/15/2022 as long as their vaccination rates remain at least 80% or higher?
My understanding is that the mandate that was extended was the one that was already in place. If you have 80%, then you can apply for a waiver. Therefore, any system that has applied can unmask in high school under the extension also. It is simply an extension of what was. Whether it is revisited in January is anyone’s guess.
I absolutely do not agree with any unmasking in schools that have kids on top of each other. I will never support authoritarian rule anywhere, so even though the waiver has to be approved, this at least gives the town some say in whether to apply for a waiver or just keep the overall mask mandate in place.
Interesting article apparently attempting to show remote schools do not make a difference. I checked several references, including the two that stated covid does not affect younger children as it does adults. Those references are all pre-Delta. We know Delta changed the game when it came to children. What am I missing.
Read this as well. Certainly interesting. While I do buy the argument that children aren’t as affected by Covid (even with the Delta variant), they’re certainly not unaffected. Also, children can and do transmit to others (at school, back at home, in other environments – like visiting Grandpa).
Also, I think that isolating precisely where transmissions take place is VERY hard to do. There really isn’t a true control group. I view these studies therefore with a great deal of skepticism.
Often the argument is made – and there’s truth to it – that 65-80% of transmission takes place within households. Well, yes, but this begs the question how did the virus get into the household. Social distancing guidelines are meant to curb the spread by reducing the chance of contracting the virus outside the household and then transmitting it once in the household.
Thanks, Joshua. Your past paragraph is important. I’d rather have seen a study on covid cases directly attributed to spread of the virus due to children being in school.
We are so busy trying to justify something that truly cannot be justified that it borders on irresponsible. You cannot look at the positives in schools that I post each week and not notice the increase of cases in full remote (with vaccine) vs hybrid (no vaccine).
We’re kidding ourselves if we think we’re going to avoid this. Could very well be the coronavirus’s last gasp as it runs out of bullets, so to speak. But, I believe now that the AY. sub-lineages are the trigger for the next wave. Will it be a massive surge? Very unlikely. But, it will put strain on the system, at least in some areas, and cause quite a bit of harm, both in terms of morbidity and mortality.
Article on the success of Test and Stay. I know some here may not approve, but I can say as a parent of someone who was in Test and Stay when a student in my child’s class tested positive (who sits right next to my kid) my child missed no school and there was no in-school transmission. It allowed my child to go to school and my wife and I to go to work (we both work in schools as well). I can also say in the handful of Covid positive cases my school has said over the past two school years, we have had no in-school transmission. It can be done with masking and ventilation in class and distancing and ventilation when eating.
Dave, thanks again for the article and your info re your school and your son’s. I think test to stay may be working well in some cases and maybe not in others. I tried to find other articles with some numbers of in-school time saved vs exposed when left in school. Your article and others I found do not give numbers.
I find this interesting and appreciate your promoting me to do my due diligence since I am the person who is not a fan. It has been in place through only five reporting weeks, but this seems a good place to find base numbers.
DESE considers a school cluster as 2 or more in the same school district. I think 2 is a bit low. I used last week’s DESE school positives for my numbers. 56 individual school districts had 10+ cases, 87 had between 2-9 cases. That totals 143 districts and 36% of the total 399 school districts. If you add in the 61 districts with 2-3, that is 50% of school districts with clusters. But again….I don’t agree with using two.
Note two things. One, I counted only students and not staff. Although, I don’t think adding staff would make much difference. Only a few districts have more than 2 staff any one week. Two, I need to find out which districts are using test go stay and cross reference those with the districts showing clusters. That, my friend, is for tomorrow.
Kudos to your son’s district also. Not many can make that claim. Perhaps, the approach should be a model. I’m not discounting private…I spent my first school years in private…..but it is a bit of a different story
Rapid increase in hospitalizations continues in the Netherlands, Belgium, and now Germany. As I said about 4 weeks ago, when reviewing the data from parts of Europe, I could tell something was up and that it would not remain confined to low vaccination countries in Eastern Europe. Whether the latest resurgence is fueled by AY. sub-lineages or not (I suspect it is in part), we don’t know definitively. But, it’s obvious that even high barriers of immunity can’t stop the coronavirus.
Yet, bizarrely I’ve been seeing many American epidemiologists say the pandemic is waning and that we won’t have another wave. Hubris. I must say, after so many errors in forecasting, before I would even utter such a prediction I would hedge my bets. Better still, don’t predict. Urge caution and hope for the best.
Thanks as always Joshua! Any “off the cuff” thoughts as to whether this pandemic begins to wane sometime in 2022?
Yes, it will. I will stick to that `prediction.’ 2022 will be better than 2021, especially once we get to spring.
Thanks TK!
In parts of Michigan Covid-19 has seen gradually (but steadily at times) increasing over the past 4-6 weeks. Also, in Western NY state. What do these places share in common? They both do really good virus sequencing. And, they’re both showing that the AY. sub-lineages are outcompeting the original ancestral Delta – B.1.617.2. Roughly 55-60% of cases in these regions are of the AY. sub-lineages, and 40-45% are B.1.617.2. If you think this isn’t going to happen in Massachusetts, then you’re deluding yourself. It’s probably already happening and after this gray and rainy week of weather (people migrating en masse indoors) it will likely accelerate a bit.
The good news is that it’s a gradual displacement, the AY. sub-lineages are only an estimated 10-15% more transmissible, AND, last but not least, none of the sub-lineages appear to evade vaccines any more than B.1.617.2 does.
With regard to the DESE extending the indoor mask mandate until January 15, 2022, if I understand correctly, only 7 school districts so far have actually applied for waivers (with 80% vaccination rate).
Does this mean that those districts that applied for waivers can “unmask” after 1/15/2022 as long as their vaccination rates remain at least 80% or higher?
My understanding is that the mandate that was extended was the one that was already in place. If you have 80%, then you can apply for a waiver. Therefore, any system that has applied can unmask in high school under the extension also. It is simply an extension of what was. Whether it is revisited in January is anyone’s guess.
I absolutely do not agree with any unmasking in schools that have kids on top of each other. I will never support authoritarian rule anywhere, so even though the waiver has to be approved, this at least gives the town some say in whether to apply for a waiver or just keep the overall mask mandate in place.
Interesting article apparently attempting to show remote schools do not make a difference. I checked several references, including the two that stated covid does not affect younger children as it does adults. Those references are all pre-Delta. We know Delta changed the game when it came to children. What am I missing.
https://twitter.com/erictopol/status/1453393548749926411?s=21
Read this as well. Certainly interesting. While I do buy the argument that children aren’t as affected by Covid (even with the Delta variant), they’re certainly not unaffected. Also, children can and do transmit to others (at school, back at home, in other environments – like visiting Grandpa).
Also, I think that isolating precisely where transmissions take place is VERY hard to do. There really isn’t a true control group. I view these studies therefore with a great deal of skepticism.
Often the argument is made – and there’s truth to it – that 65-80% of transmission takes place within households. Well, yes, but this begs the question how did the virus get into the household. Social distancing guidelines are meant to curb the spread by reducing the chance of contracting the virus outside the household and then transmitting it once in the household.
Thanks, Joshua. Your past paragraph is important. I’d rather have seen a study on covid cases directly attributed to spread of the virus due to children being in school.
We are so busy trying to justify something that truly cannot be justified that it borders on irresponsible. You cannot look at the positives in schools that I post each week and not notice the increase of cases in full remote (with vaccine) vs hybrid (no vaccine).
Singapore (~85% fully vaccinated; but experiencing an AY. fueled wave): https://www.scmp.com/news/asia/southeast-asia/article/3153737/coronavirus-singapore-running-low-icu-beds-indonesia
We’re kidding ourselves if we think we’re going to avoid this. Could very well be the coronavirus’s last gasp as it runs out of bullets, so to speak. But, I believe now that the AY. sub-lineages are the trigger for the next wave. Will it be a massive surge? Very unlikely. But, it will put strain on the system, at least in some areas, and cause quite a bit of harm, both in terms of morbidity and mortality.
Article on the success of Test and Stay. I know some here may not approve, but I can say as a parent of someone who was in Test and Stay when a student in my child’s class tested positive (who sits right next to my kid) my child missed no school and there was no in-school transmission. It allowed my child to go to school and my wife and I to go to work (we both work in schools as well). I can also say in the handful of Covid positive cases my school has said over the past two school years, we have had no in-school transmission. It can be done with masking and ventilation in class and distancing and ventilation when eating.
https://www.boston.com/news/schools/2021/10/27/heres-how-many-student-covid-absences-have-been-prevented-by-test-and-stay/?p1=hp_featurestack
Thanks, Dave. May I ask if your school is public or private?
Private and my son’s is public. Both my school and his were full in-person all of last year. No in-school spread in either.
Very nice. Thank you.
Thanks, Dave. Interesting and positive news.
Third dose vs booster. I was pretty sure there is a difference since I’ve read a fair amount. WCVB must be reading here 😉
There is Indeed a difference. And people who had the third dose are supposed to have a fourth booster….BUT NOT YET
Makes more sense but still she didn’t say if there is a difference in the actual vaccine.
https://twitter.com/wcvb/status/1453494490719793158?s=21
Dave, thanks again for the article and your info re your school and your son’s. I think test to stay may be working well in some cases and maybe not in others. I tried to find other articles with some numbers of in-school time saved vs exposed when left in school. Your article and others I found do not give numbers.
I find this interesting and appreciate your promoting me to do my due diligence since I am the person who is not a fan. It has been in place through only five reporting weeks, but this seems a good place to find base numbers.
DESE considers a school cluster as 2 or more in the same school district. I think 2 is a bit low. I used last week’s DESE school positives for my numbers. 56 individual school districts had 10+ cases, 87 had between 2-9 cases. That totals 143 districts and 36% of the total 399 school districts. If you add in the 61 districts with 2-3, that is 50% of school districts with clusters. But again….I don’t agree with using two.
Note two things. One, I counted only students and not staff. Although, I don’t think adding staff would make much difference. Only a few districts have more than 2 staff any one week. Two, I need to find out which districts are using test go stay and cross reference those with the districts showing clusters. That, my friend, is for tomorrow.
Kudos to your son’s district also. Not many can make that claim. Perhaps, the approach should be a model. I’m not discounting private…I spent my first school years in private…..but it is a bit of a different story
Source: https://www.doe.mass.edu/covid19/positive-cases/
Correction. The 87 is between 4 and 9.
C-19 for 10-28 is ready.