Friday December 24 2021 Forecast (2:15AM)

103 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 24-28)

A little bit of winter weather for Christmas Eve and Christmas Day. Our region sits on the colder side of a frontal boundary today as a wave of low pressure moves by this morning, producing a light snowfall for the region. The boundary shifts a little bit to the north allowing some warming aloft as another disturbance comes along for Christmas Day, so any precipitation that starts as sleet or snow in northern MA northward will quickly switch to freezing rain/drizzle, especially away from the coast, with icing likely. To the south, the temperature should be warm enough so that most areas see rain, but there still could be some pockets of freezing rain away from the coast in the early morning. The surface should warm enough to transition most areas to non-freezing rain by midday, except a few lingering pockts of icing in places like the Merrimack Valley and southern NH. While this will not be a major system, it doesn’t take much freezing precipitation to produce hazardous walking and driving conditions on untreated surfaces, so keep this in mind if you are doing holiday travel by wheels or by feet. The low pressure area responsible for the Christmas Day precipitation will intensify as it moves away to the east on Sunday, leaving us with a blustery and chilly ending to the holiday weekend with a few snow showers possible as an upper disturbance moves through. When we get to early next week, we’ll again find ourselves on the colder side of a boundary with additional disturbances trying to make it out of the Midwest into the Northeast. I don’t have much faith in these systems surviving fully, so we’ll probably just end up with varying amounts of cloud cover with mostly precipitation-free conditions. That’s the leaning for now.

TODAY: Cloudy with snow of a coating to 1 inch (locally up to 2 inches) this morning. Partly sunny this afternoon. Highs 28-35. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT (CHRISTMAS EVE): Clouds return. A little snow or sleet possible southern NH and northern MA pre-dawn, with a bit of light rain / freezing rain to the south. Lows 25-32 evening, rising slowly overnight. Wind N to E under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY (CHRISTMAS DAY): Cloudy. Periods of rain with freezing rain away from the coast and especially near and north of I-90, transitioning to plain rain from south to north before tapering off during midday-afternoon. Highs 34-41. Wind E to N up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of mix/snow showers. Lows 26-33. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Highs 33-40. Wind N-NW 10-20 MPH and gusty.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 17-24. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, diminishing.

MONDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 33-40. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 23-30. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 35-42. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 29 – JANUARY 2)

Two disturbance may bring episodes of precipitation during this period. Neither look like major events. Temperatures near to slightly below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 3-7)

Variable temperatures, averaging close to normal. One or two disturbances bring precipitation threats. Timing / details not possible this far in advance.

103 thoughts on “Friday December 24 2021 Forecast (2:15AM)”

  2. Thanks TK. Merry Xmas for all who celebrate.

    Heading to down to NC tomorrow and boy does it look warm. I like the pattern starting early Jan, definitely believe we get as good string of storms.

  3. Also just started to snow lightly. Good news anything that falls will stay and not disappear before tomorrow.

  5. Thanks TK.

    It will be interesting if there ends up being more salt on the streets than actual snow on them throughout the city of Boston.

        3. I am sad and am trying to send some to you. I have to say that I was shocked when I opened the blinds about an hour ago.

    1. Amazingly enough, as I was busy actually doing some work online, it actually snowed a bit here in JP. The ground
      is dusted white!

      Vicki, whatever you did worked! Thank you.

      1. Probably not, but who knows. We continue to see even our short range guidance sucks broken ornaments. 😉

  13. Thanks TK. Coating of snow where I am which is perfect as this won’t disrupt families from getting together.

  15. Thanks TK.

    Nice surprise here in a Coventry CT this morning with 2.1” of snow. Actually looks like winter out there! Plow has come by a few times and the roads are snow and slush covered. Still snowing very lightly out there.

    Most Towns around here picked up 1.5-2”. BDL is reporting 1.7”.

    Now we just hope the freezing rain doesn’t wash it all away by the AM!

        1. She is a rescue dog, half lab and half mix with a little pit bull in there. She is a great dog, very playful and loves to hike!

  19. TK – I am working tomorrow. How will the commute up until 7:00 am be here in Boston?

    Based on those futurecast radars, Boston will be in the “pink” for awhile before the changeover. I saw one tv met this morning show Boston at 0.1” ice accumulation. It takes just that much for sidewalks, not to mention my front steps to be very slippery.

    Also the fact that the WWA goes well south of Boston for tomorrow am is even more concerning.

      1. Thanks TK. Of all the days for Boston to hang on to its frozen precip. I guess I’ll take a taxi to work in the morning instead of the T. 🙁

        Thanks again TK! 🙂

  20. Thanks TK!

    The event coming up tonight could be a real troublemaker. The Winter Weather Advisory is well-warranted. This doesn’t look like your typical Worcester Hills icing special, though they will hold onto it longest as usual. But just about everywhere will see at least a light glaze of ice tonight and early tomorrow, maybe save for the immediate coast and the south coast/Cape. Definitely not the magnitude of ice event where we’d be concerned about power outages, but from a travel impact perspective and considering the timing of it, it’s pretty concerning.

        1. The airport will probably just have brief icing.

          The city itself, tough temp profile. If I had to guess, they go to near 33 by 9 and 38 by afternoon.

          WxW, SAK, and JMA will tell you that one of the biggest challenges is forecasting specific temps for specific locations and times, most especially in situations like this (and things like sea breezes, back door fronts, etc).

          1. I don’t envy you guys in these situations.

            Typically (certainly not always), the City goes above freezing fairly quickly. We shall see tomorrow. Hope it goes above rapidly.

          2. If the forecasts I wrote early this morning, I kept most places north and west of I-95 below freezing until early afternoon tomorrow.

            For parts of southern NH, they may get above 32 during the afternoon, then go right back below 32 before midnight.

  21. Thanks, TK!

    The light snow has put us here into a holiday mood!
    I have just finished my Christmas preparations (but I have said that 12 times already this season!!! 🙂

    Sending you all the blessings of the holiday! Please have joyous, special and healthy celebrations with family and friends!!!!

    Merry Christmas! 🙂

  22. The city of Boston, even Logan, is sometimes a “wild card” and can get sneaky cold air from due north to linger longer than expected. Unfortunately for me, 9 am is way too late for me at 33+ (7:00 am).

    Too bad it will be too warm to snow but not quite warm enough for plain rain for awhile either. Oh well.

      1. YIKES!!! If only this was a straight snow situation, Boston would easily have a White Christmas.

        Why can’t the coastal front do its usual thing and bust through the city like butter?

        2. This is not a coastal front situation.

          Warming aloft, cold surface. This is common in a La Niña.

  27. Merry Christmas all : it’s so nice this xmas not worried if the weather is going too take me away from the holiday / family. My first week off 11- 7 went well & now I’m off for one week . I think I’m going to like my new lifestyle change but it will take time .

    1. You always have to cut those #’s at least in half, usually more, but in terms of the “footprint” of where there will be icing, that should be about correct. And as we know, all it takes is the lightest of glazes to make untreated surfaces a sheet of ice.

  32. NWS discussion

    Another shortwave races through a zonal flow. The shortwave
    amplitude is shallow, so surface features will move west-east. But a
    weak 40-kt jet will move across from the Ohio Valley and overrun the
    colder air at the surface. This may initially cause brief snow, but
    primarily overrunning temps should be warm enough for freezing rain.

    Timing on the precipitation would favor precip starting in the west
    about 2-4 AM, in the hills 4-6 AM, and in the east 5-7 AM. Low level
    temperatures should climb above freezing south of the Mass Pike by 9-
    10 AM, and in Northern MA by Noon.

    The Winter Weather Advisory, which was issued for most of Srn New
    England for the expected ice, has been expanded for potential icing
    early Saturday in the interior parts of South coastal RI and
    Bristol/Plymouth Counties in MA.

    Once temperatures climb above freezing, expect them to re

    1. I sure hope they climb down this way. Actually everywhere. I do not like ice any day but on Christmas Day is just isn’t good

      1. And I do know there is nothing to be done as mom nature has a mind of her own. I do appreciate the warnings ahead

  35. Sak to respond your response on yesterdays blog.
    Matt
    DECEMBER 23, 2021 AT 11:58 PM
    2012 is an analog year for many for a reason….. SAK. Most on here know the stats but we are frustrated snow lovers and want snow. Its a weather blog and there is good reason to feel that we could see below avg snowfall

    REPLY
    SAK
    DECEMBER 24, 2021 AT 1:40 AM
    If 2012 is an analog year, and it had snowfall that was roughly 20″ ABOVE normal, then why is there good reason to expect below normal snowfall?

    My response… winter 2012 had 9.1 inches of snow for Boston. I remember it well since I was a senior high school student at the time hoping for as many snow days as possible and only got 3 snow days. It was well below normal snowfall. 2nd least snow fall by .1 of an inch back in 1937 which was 9.0 inches of snow in Boston.

    2. I remember 2012 very well. We rented at Humarock for a month in January 2012. The water temperature was above normal and the temps were warm enough to sit on the deck right on the beach many days and nights.

      I looked up definition of analog winter and this certainly could be. Although you correct said a few posts ahead that it might change. The pat began with “ Only takes a month to go crazy for above normal snowfall for the season……”.

    3. So, in other words, you misread my post, and referenced a different winter that had absolutely nothing to do with my original post. Got it.

  37. The struggle is real regarding even short term forecasting. The colder air is more impressive than even short-range predictions indicated. This introduces the snow chance back to the forecast for the first part of the upcoming event, which can benefit us in 2 ways… 1) It takes away some of what would have fallen as freezing rain. 2) It gives a rougher surface for freezing rain to fall onto, which in some ways cuts down on the slip factor. I’ve used this to my advantage before by not removing the snow until the ice was done falling, then scraping it all off the walk / driveway together. Not sure if this will work quite like that, but it’s possible.

    Regardless, there is still an icing threat, and we need to be aware of it.

    For all of you doing the Christmas Eve thing, may your night be as enjoyable as possible. 🙂

  38. Santa has instructed Rudolph to review short-term guidance, say, HRRR, rather than the GFS and ECMWF models. I think Claus and the reindeer are ready for anything.

  40. TK – Can Boston get into the snow overnight as well? That could help my commute tremendously. Nice and crunchy underfoot.

        1. Ugh. I will be thinking of you.

          My dad often worked on Christmas Eve. My son so far has traded another holiday for Christmas. Macs sister always took Christmas flights so attendants with family could have the day off.

        2. I’ll be working on Christmas morning (only for a few hours though). I’ll be spending some time with my friends in a memory care facility making sure they have a good star to their Christmas Day, especially since some of them will be spending it without family members.

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