Monday February 14 2022 Forecast (9:24AM)

117 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 14-18)

We’ll say goodbye to our snow event this morning, then get ready for some notable weather changes again during the next 5 days. As the final flakes depart, eventually, in eastern areas, the cold takes hold and lasts through Wednesday morning. Both tonight and Tuesday night will see radiational cooling when some very cold low temperatures will likely be observed. Today, we stay in the 20s for most areas, while after the cold start, Tuesday recovers a tiny bit more, averaging around 30 for highs. Look for a few isolated snow showers Tuesday as an upper disturbance crosses the area. High pressure moves overhead early Wednesday, providing the cold morning, then shifts offshore by afternoon, allowing a stronger temperature recovery with fair weather. Wednesday night, clouds move in rapidly with the approach and passage of a warm front. This will set us up for an unseasonably mild day Thursday when we make another run at 60, though the warmest temperatures may not occur until the evening when we see numerous rain showers ahead of an approaching cold front. Like we’ve seen a couple times recently, the sharp warm up will not last long, as a strong cold front moves through early Friday. The question to be answered will be if any of the rain will flip to snow before the precipitation moves out. I’m leaning toward the dry air winning the battle, but something to keep an eye on. We will see temperatures drop during the day Friday after highs during the early morning hours.

TODAY: Overcast with periods of snow eastern coastal areas into late morning, otherwise a clearing trend with increasing sun west to east. Additional snow accumulation of under 1 inch for far eastern locations. Highs 20-27. Wind N-NW 5-15 MPH with gusts around 20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows -3 to +2 in normal cold spots, 3-8 most locations, 8-13 urban areas. Wind NW diminishing to under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated snow showers possible. Highs 24-31. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 6-13 except -2 to +5 normal cold spots. Wind diminishing to calm.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 37-44. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 35-42 evening then slowly warming. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Numerous rain showers arriving west to east afternoon. Highs 55-62 except 48-55 South Coast, occurring late in the day. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with numerous to widespread rain showers. Thunderstorms possible. Temperatures rise slightly to 50-57 South Coast, 58-65 elsewhere. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

FRIDAY: Cloudy with rain showers likely early, may end as mix/snow showers especially northwest of Boston, then a sun/cloud mix. Temperatures falling to the 30s.Wind shifting to NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 19-23)

A disturbance may bring a few snow showers to the area February 19, otherwise expect it to be windy and cold with mostly dry conditions. High pressure brings fair weather and a gradual moderation in temperature after this, then a boundary nearby increases the chance of unsettled weather toward the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 24-28)

Active pattern expected with a couple unsettled weather threats heading through the final days of February as we sit near a boundary between cold to the north and mild to the south, making the temperature outlook more uncertain.

117 thoughts on “Monday February 14 2022 Forecast (9:24AM)”

  3. A solid 8.5 in south Sutton

    Kudos to our JR, Eric, Pete for mea culpa comments. Pete made me laugh. He clearly saw something Thursday night when he raised eyebrows with a numbers higher than others. He and Eric were off for the weekend….not sure about JR. Humble gentlemen

    https://ibb.co/k41pYR1

    1. Just measured 5 1/4 inches. I sure there was some settling and compaction as it was such a long duration event. But that is all that is fresh on the ground now. 🙂

    1. Pete did the same thing on air last night. I didn’t think those forecasts were that bad. The mets are taking a beating on social media today. I’ve already seen the “I wish I could be wrong as much as they are and still get paid” joke 3 times this morning. ** yawn ** … they need better material. 😉

      The only thing that was off was the volume of snow from the outer edge of the system – and they adjusted nicely during the event, from what I saw. That’s part of forecasting – sometimes we have to adjust on the fly. Not that I’m telling you anything you don’t already know. 🙂

      2. Pete and Eric were off for the weekend I believe but are still taking responsibility

        To me that is impressively honest. The forecast was pretty far off for some areas. Decent folks learn from those who are humble. I don’t bother …or try not to….with keyboard warriors. They’d complain if the forecast had been 100%.

        Decent folks…who I believe are the majority,..learn a much more valuable lesson on how to be humble than they would have learned had the forecast been spot on.

        1. I love those guys.

          And I myself love to tell people when a forecast goes wrong and then learn why. It’s always been a good way to keep everything in check.

          Both Pete and Eric were on air yesterday. So they were taking responsibility directly. I still don’t think their forecasts were really that bad though. Especially if you melt down the snow and verify the melted precip. And they both did adjust as the event went on. They handled it the best possible way. I’d have done no differently.

          1. Ahh. I didn’t see them on Twitter so assumed. We know what Felix said. Either way. Makes me proud they are ours

            1. I should have added that I didn’t think their forecasts were all bad either. Certainly areas were. But that isn’t my focus. It is how they handled themselves

  8. Thanks, TK!

    7.5 in Taunton. One-hour delay for schools in Middleborough!

    Hope Mrs. SSK is home and resting!

    Congratulations to Mrs. OS for her Super Bowl windfall. First round’s on her! Hahahahaha! 🙂

    2. Thanks Capt. She still has not been paid for the final score as she has only been paid for the 1/2 time Score. The good Doctor here
      has assured me that she has the final score win to come.

        2. I think you are correct. I’m not sure of exact time it began, but when I was up at 2:30 am Sunday, we had an inch. And here we are at 10:45 am Monday with on and off flakes

  12. Facebook is buzzing how the Mets messed up & nobody knew about last nights snow coming in , pay attention !!!

    1. This is the worst I have seen it a while SSK. I made a few statements here and there, but at some point you just have to walk away because by tomorrow they’ll have forgotten about it anyway. 🙂 The people who don’t understand, probably never will. I can hope to reach a couple each time it happens, but at least the ones who get it will keep understanding and make the most of the info we give them. 🙂

  15. Thank you, TK.

    Ah, the sneaky February snow events. We’ll probably have a few more of these over the coming 6 weeks. It’ll likely be another above average snowfall year for Boston.

    TK’s forecast was remarkably good.

    But, I don’t get upset with the TV mets who got it wrong, especially if they explain what went wrong in their forecasts.

    The yo-yo temperature swings are truly Denver-esque. Remember how cold it was about a week ago after the rain and sleet storm. Then we had quite the warm-up, and by Saturday some record temperatures. This was followed by an impressive cool-down, snow, and we’ll make another run at record temperature territory this week, after more rain. And this will be followed by the obligatory cool-down and perhaps more snow. During this span we’ve had pretty much every kind of precipitation possible, from graupel to wet snow to `dry’ snow to sleet to rain.

          1. Not automatically. But they have, in general, more southern jet stream activity than La Nina winters, and that does increase our risk of classic coastal storms, depending of course on other aspects of the pattern.

  16. According to Cindy’s 10-day outlook (5+5) after Tuesday it gets milder and the next cold spell for the upcoming weekend isn’t nearly as dramatic. Mild again ahead of the next “rain” event thereafter on “day 10”.

    Fwiw…

        1. I believe you have stated that a couple of times. None-the_less we are marching towards Spring. 🙂 Often times the most volatile time of the year, weather-wise. We shall see what this year brings.

          You expected Worcester to surpass Logan in the snow dept. Are you expecting some coastal huggers where
          Worcester would log more snow than Logan?

          1. I think we’ll get into a 10-15 day period of active weather, at a time when climatology says it’s more likely to snow inland. That’s my basis. Yes, the water is “cold” but still as we get into March, the focus of snowfall starts to shift back from the coast in a general sense (with obvious exceptions from time to time). 🙂

  17. Thanks TK!

    This was one of the all-around strangest winter weather events I can recall. I like how Eric phrased it: ‘death by a thousand paper cuts’. Considering the final totals, it punched below its weight in terms of actual impacts – long duration, low rates, grassy surfaces favored, no wind or other impacts. But still, to squeeze a widespread 6-10″ out of an event like that is pretty unusual.

    I haven’t checked the numbers but some parts of SNE must be getting pretty close to reaching their seasonal averages. Nothing on the horizon and we’re likely heading into a multi-week mild stretch where snow chances should be limited. But it’s only mid-February…

    2. I love the way he phrases things, on air and online. Quirky, which I love. That’s my style (I have my own of course). I still think he’s being too harsh on himself, but at least brutally honest.

  18. Thanks TK.

    Another inch of snow last night for 3.5″ total here in Coventry….amounts went down to my west and up to my east by quite a bit again this storm. Was really surprised to see those 8″ totals extending back into NE CT and up towards Vicki.

    Watching the next storm closely as we will be in Upstate NY this weekend for a softball tournament and trying to get a day of skiing in at Whiteface in the Adirondacks. Hoping that Thursday system doesn’t incinerate the snow up there like the Grinch storm of Dec. 2020 and then turn everything to a sheet of ice. Right now its looking like rain to Montreal. Too bad as the ski areas have taken several steps forward the past few weeks but this will be a huge setback.

      1. Thanks. There is going to be an extremely sharp cutoff along the boundary that this late week storm follows. Cold and snow to the NW and mild and rainy to the SE. Big differences in the track between the colder CMC which tracks the low from Pittsburgh to Mt Washington vs the GFS which takes the low from Detroit to Montreal. It’s the difference between more snow and mix in northern NY and VT vs very little. Euro seems to split the difference. Hoping the GFS is wrong.

        For CNE/SNE, its not going to make a difference. Looks like a tropical torch here on Thursday either way.

  20. It’s now official. My wife has been paid the full $750 ($250 for half score and $500 for final score) she won
    on the Super Bowl Squares for Multiple sclerosis (MS).

    She decided to keep $500 and make a donation of $250 to MS.

    Happy Valentine’s Day to her!

  21. I figure that from mid February to late May – and sometimes even into early June – we’ll have lots of volatility. Winter and its `spring’ extension in coastal New England, especially, has a way of fighting back, no matter what the overall pattern. Between now and late May, there will be many beautiful spring-like days that tease and sometimes trick us into dropping our guard, only to crush our hopes, first with periodic snow and cold, then the “raws,” followed by the notorious sea breezes that can make the distance between, say, Newton and Boston, seem like 100 miles, not 10. And, of course, all of this will be a distant memory when the thermometer hits 99F on June 8th to begin the first of many heat waves from June until September.

  22. Marshfield received over 9 inches of snow & I am suspecting we probably received 7-8 here in pembroke next door throughout the event .

  24. My brother in Bow said no snow there. I asked how ski areas are doing.

    He is close friends with most owners/managers. He said ragged mountain and pats peak doing well enough that they have lines and at least at PP reservations are required. Others like Sunapee , okemo and crotched not so much. He said Vail ruined sunapee. Grooming was once good and now is horrific. Folks who worked as ambassadors for years are now parking cars. Crotched eliminated night skiing and ski team. Okemo didn’t open some trails.

    It is a shame that ski areas struggle due to weather changes and now due to management.

      1. Thanks. Gutters are full of ice but I imagine that won’t be an issue by the time the rain gets here with the warmth Wed night and Thursday during the day before the rain gets here.

  30. Drove to Good Harbor Beach. I think the temp was just below 20F. Wind chill was incredible! Snow blowing across the sand … I could feel frozen snow on my face. Four layers, a hoodie, hat, mask, and gloves and it was COLD!! Didn’t realize it until I was part way home, my eyebrows froze. The wind was incredible.

    2. Sounds like it was the day I went up to Hampton to put my feet in the water last January (2021). Although the wind wasn’t ferocious. That happened when I did my foot dip in March. 😉

  31. I put the trash out with jeans, t shirt and a hoodie. No coat. I thought it was fine, then realized how cold it really was.

  32. Longshot, sounds like an invigorating walk at the beach. Thanks for sharing.

    I wish I had gone to the beach today. I did run 6 miles, and it was awesome. This winter had produced quite a number of days like today. Very grateful for that. The first mile is difficult, but by the time I’m done I’m warm and acclimated.

  33. Quick sports item: I did not like the refereeing last night. Nor did I particularly like it throughout the season.

    But, U.S. refereeing/umpiring is not only much better – across all sports – than soccer refereeing in Europe (which is truly awful), it’s also far less corrupt. The latest scandal is truly shocking. Just read about it in the Dutch media. Bruno Paixão, a Portuguese referee (FIFA referee since 2004) has allegedly received up to $2 million from the Portuguese soccer club Benfica.

    1. I may need some help from MJO for this… But today’s ensemble fcst for MJO is a bit more wiry looking, which actually gives me hope that the outlook has a shot of at least partially verifying.

  36. If anybody typed anything that vanished in the last 1/2 hour, there was some kind of WP glitch. Not sure what happened on that one. Seems to be working now.

    Let me know if you have any trouble posting.

      1. That’s how I noticed it. I referenced something my colleague wrote about California and then it was gone.

  38. I didn’t run or walk on the beach…although I envy both, especially beach….I did sit outside for maybe 30-40 minutes with a short glass of MACallan. Spring jacket and long sleeve tee, it was relaxing and refreshing

    https://imgur.com/a/bNXxAWE

  41. Frigid morning. 3-below at 6:30.
    The same bird singing a happy tune early Friday morning was using some real choice cuss words yesterday and today!

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