Thursday January 5 2023 Forecast (7:39AM)

92 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 5-9)

Unsettled weather continues for 2 more days with a variety of conditions. Thankfully, the last bout of steadier rainfall which occurred late last night into the early hours of today occurred with surface temperatures safely well above freezing, preventing any icing issues. But with lots of low level moisture trapped under the elongated low as it continues to pass through our region, we can have drizzle (along with fog) at any time through tonight, and with a continued colder trend in temperature, some areas, particularly the interior higher elevations of southwestern NH and central MA, become more vulnerable to freezing drizzle/fog, so we’ll have to watch surface temperatures closely as we go. Additionally, a potent disturbance associated with the old original low pressure area, representing the end of the elongated low pressure zone, has to move through here on Friday, and by then the temperatures will be marginal to cold enough to support snow, especially from the I-95 corridor westward, and it may fall heavy enough at a time that, while relatively minor in accumulation, can have a significant impact on the Friday afternoon commute – so be aware of that potential. Friday night, the system moves out, but leaving behind a coating of snow and likely just wet ground in coastal areas, temperatures falling below freezing will lead to icy conditions, so also keep that in mind if you have Friday evening / night plans, even into early Saturday. The weekend and Monday will feature quieter weather but with a more seasonable chill, especially Sunday, as the core of a chilly air mass will move through then. A low pressure system I was watching for a potential Monday impact appears that it will travel safely south of New England at that time.

TODAY: Overcast. Periods of drizzle and areas of fog. Glaze ice may form on untreated surfaces mainly southwestern NH and central MA higher elevations by late-day. Temperatures falling 40s to 30s. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Overcast. Areas of fog. Spotty drizzle and freezing drizzle (where temperatures are 32 or lower). Lows 30-37, coldest in higher elevations of central MA and southwestern NH. Wind N under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Cloudy. Mix to snow develops west to east, may stay mixed with rain east of I-95. Snow accumulation of 1/2 to 2 inches I-95 westward with spotty amounts up to 1/2 inch possible to the east by the end of the day. Temperatures steady 30-37, coldest in higher elevations of central MA and southwestern NH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow flurries in the evening. Icy ground on any untreated surfaces. Lows 25-32. Wind N-NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 36-43. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 18-25. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sun and high clouds. Highs 33-40. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 20-27. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 38-45. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 10-14)

Watching a potential weak disturbance with a few snow showers early in the period and potential impact from low pressure toward period’s end. Temperatures near to slightly above normal.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 15-19)

With lower than average confidence I forecast a continuation of a similar pattern while we watch for the potential of more cold air showing up via Canada, with reservation. Not sure things line up to do that before the end of this period. With active Pacific jet stream flow we will have to keep an eye out for disturbances that are not seen well or timed well by guidance this far in advance especially as depicted crossing the continent.

92 thoughts on “Thursday January 5 2023 Forecast (7:39AM)”

  8. When I was walking my two dogs last night Charlie&Louie my Blenheim King Charles Cavalier Spaniels with my led headlight I observed earth worms on the ground would scramble back underground when the bright led light shined on them. I never seen anything like that in January. Also I observed winter moths last night. I’m here in Warwick near TF Greene.

    2. Really interesting, Robert. We have had huge (15-20) groups of robins and grackles on our lawn for days. I’m watching them now from my chair, and I’d say the groups can be upwards of 30. My guess was they were eating grubs; but after your post, I wonder.

      I did some reading on robins and the first sign of spring. Some go a fair distance toward warmer weather and some do not go far at all. One reason the ones that do not go too far is that there are berries etc to feed them when the ground is frozen. They tend not to be seen since they are in the wooded areas.

      One excellent reason for the belief that robins are the first sign of spring is that they come out of the wooded areas to feast on the worms, etc. in our lawns when they thaw in spring.

    3. I’ve seen that before in winter during mild, wet weather. It’s fascinating if not a bit eerie.

  9. 12Z NAM Kuchera Snow for tomorrow

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2023010512&fh=39&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    12Z 3KM NAM Kuchera Snow for tomorrow

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam4km&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2023010512&fh=42&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    12Z HRRR Kuchera Snow for tomorrow

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2023010512&fh=42&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    Looks like the HRRR is the most Bullish. Time will tell 🙂

    1. Well, it can be darker, both in terms of daylight hours (it gets light out here at 8:45am) and grayness/overcast (it’s that every day here).

      1. If/when we go to year round DST, we’ll get that similar feeling here during the winter months as well.

  16. wonderful news.

    BREAKING NEWS ALERT
    Buffalo Bills safety Damar Hamlin has shown what physicians treating him are calling “remarkable improvement over the past 24 hours,” the team announced Thursday, three days after the player went into cardiac arrest and had to be resuscitated on the field.

    1. Yay !!

      I think I saw also something to the effect, that they believe he is neurologically in-tact.

      Thank goodness !!

      1. I had not heard that. Wonderful news indeed. The outpouring of support and prayers has been just plain awesome. The very best of humanity. His go fund me for kids was close to 7mm last night.

  18. Thanks, TK!

    Best news ever about Damar Hamlin! Let’s hope he continues to improve!!!

    I am astounded at the medical advances in the last 10 years. I heard on local sports radio yesterday that the NFL has a plan for exactly such an emergency, including having the ambulance drive to the local trauma center on a specific route. All 32 stadiums and teams are required to practice this at least once a year.

    Locally, a local referee collapsed at the end of a November football playoff game between Norton and Sharon at Norton High School. The NHS trainer was on site and right there to save the timekeeper. Incredible.

    I agree: It’s very dark and it’s starting to get to some of my students! Students are also starting to get sick again now that the break is over. I have a couple out for a week with Covid and a few were dismissed today. It’s so cyclical that the kiddos and staff just can’t seem to shake being sick!

    Good news: The sun rose three seconds earlier this morning than yesterday and the sun sets at 4:30 on Saturday!!! 🙂

    1. Indeed. My son just came down with it for a THIRD time!!!!
      He is OK, but this is getting ridiculous!!! Stay healthy.

      1. Oh nooooo. I hope he recovers quickly.

        I’m not sure if anyone reads the covid page here. Studies are showing covid depresses a person’s immune system for eight months which helps explain one sickness after another.

  19. Despite one, maybe two, winter weather threats next week, more of the same weather pattern overall upcoming per Euro and GFS ensemble guidance:

    Tomer Burg
    @burgwx
    17h

    There’s been much hype in recent days about a supposed trend towards a cold E US pattern starting mid-month… except there is zero support for such a change.

    Instead, both EPS & GEFS strongly signal a *warming* trend past mid month:

    https://twitter.com/burgwx/status/1610790574885593088?s=20&t=21SJjZjXxHfBfHaRCTnphg

  20. There is definitely some support for a larger storm system later next week on all model guidance. The question is going to come down to track and availability of cold air as far as chances go for wintery precip. in New England. At this point, just hoping something comes along to bring NNE and the ski areas some snow….they are hurting right now.

    Matt Noyes NBC10 Boston & NECN
    @MattNBCBoston
    4h

    Our #FirstAlert 10-day forecast quiets this weekend, though Saturday flurries/sprinkles will crop up with mountain snow showers. 3 disturbances next week: Monday may miss south, Wednesday is probably fast w/snow/rain showers, Fri/Sat has potential but a long way out….

    https://twitter.com/MattNBCBoston/status/1611000512366755845?s=20&t=21SJjZjXxHfBfHaRCTnphg

    1. Matt Noyes NBC10 Boston & NECN
      @MattNBCBoston
      4h

      Fri into Sat of next week has more potential: a stronger disturbance that enters a jet stream trough (dip in jet stream) tends to favor strengthening. If path remains south of NewEng, that would put most of region on snowy side, this far out, far from certainty.

      1. Noyes may want to adjust that presumption about being on the snowy side of a southerly tracking low after looking at the 12z GFS…

    2. It just seems like every week it’s next week & then it does not pan out , I guess one of these times it will .

    1. Nice blocking high up north on the Euro with that run. Give me a GFS/Euro blend there and we could have a widespread 1-2 feet with a slow moving east coast storm like that 🙂

      Definitely a watcher for late next week. Details aside, an east coast storm threat is there on all guidance which is all we can ask for at this range.

  27. Word to the wise…

    Be very careful about the storm potential late next week, especially regarding being on the colder side of it.

    There is not a lot of support from the teleconnections for it. Just like there was not a lot of teleconnection support for a long-lasting, sustained period of well above normal temperatures here this week. That was thwarted as well. Milder than normal, yes, but I would not call yesterday and today “warm” here across SNE. 😉

    Gotta know when the models are going to lead you astray. 🙂

      1. Phase 8, 1, 2, but weak, barely above the neutral line, which as we have seen in the past is almost like not even having it in the right phase.

    3. I would take yesterday any day of the winter . I was driving through Boston yesterday afternoon with the window down

  28. I now have come to the conclusion that my approach to forecasting this winter was SO incorrect, that if I had to do it over again with what I know now, I’d have gone for a back-loaded winter with near to slightly below normal snowfall. 😉

    Also, I think backing that time frame up to January 14-16 for a “window of opportunity” may be a wise direction to lean right now. I think we’re in for a very quiet period of weather starting Saturday and lasting for 7 or 8 days. Milder than average, but not particularly warm either as weak reinforcing shots of cool air will be delivered.

    On the last couple updates I expressed concern about delaying the threat of colder weather toward the end of the period, and I feel even more strongly about that now as there are actually signs that when we do get some significant chill coming out of Canada, it may aim for the West, and not the East. If that happens, then the CFS model forecast that well about 2 weeks ago.

    1. At this point, sign me up for a back loaded winter with near normal snow. That would be a coup at this point!

      Regarding the threat near the end of next week, I am having trouble resolving your two posts above. In the first you say be careful about it and there is no teleconnection support and here you say 1/14-16 for the threat period which is basically what the Euro is showing.

      Are you thinking the storm late next week is warm and then there is a follow-up colder system?

      1. The big issue I have is there is not much support for a pattern yet that really makes me feel like we’re going to have anything “classic” looking for a while yet.

        It’s easy to look at a few op runs that “look good” with regard to a particular event, but that doesn’t really mean much. We haven’t had anything close to consistency. It looks good on one run and totally different on the next is TELLING. It means don’t pay any attention to deterministic outcomes beyond a few days and continue to focus on large scale pattern trends as shown by ensembles, and continue not to trust the GFS until we have PROOF that it has been fixed and improved.

          2. No, not even close to sticking a fork in anything. I haven’t even gotten up from the chair to start walking toward the utensile drawer yet. 😉

        2. Thanks TK, makes sense. There is some ensemble support for late next week but definitely would want to see more consistency for the next several days. Even the ensemble means with recent storms at this time frame have ended up way off vs. what actually happened.

    1. Thanks! Similar snow #’s for tomorrow.

      I wouldn’t be surprised if moderate snow for an hour during the commute causes near gridlock. I’m treating it like a major snow event given people’s likely reactions and staying off the roads after 2:45. 😉

  32. MLK Weekend has a history of snow events around here. That, in and of itself should be in our favor.

      1. And it is I who remind everybody that that particular weekend falls on different dates every year and there is no correlation whatsoever.

        You can pick any 3-day period in the month of January and the chance of precipitation will be essentially the same.

        The atmosphere does not know about weekends and holidays and it doesn’t work according to them. 🙂

        1. Indeed Tk but it’s usually vert close as it’s the 3 Monday of the month
          2021- 1/18
          2022- 1/17
          2023- 1/16

          1. It ranges over a 7-day period and on average New England would be impacted by low pressure during winter about one out of every 3 days.

            Going back through 2015 virtually every MLK weekend has had impact at least briefly from low pressure on one out of the three days, except 2017 which was dry and fair all three days.

            If you go back through history and pick any three January days you will find that the average is one low pressure system passed close to or through the region.

            There is nothing special about MLK Jr weekend. It’s the same as any other three day period in the month of January.

    1. The atmospheric circulation is very complex. It’s fascinating to watch. I think FINALLY though the general public has become educated enough to know that disruptions of the Polar Vortex are normal, and that the Polar Vortex is not some kind of “storm” but part of our normal circulation. It took a while, but I remember when media used to love to try making it sound like something from a bad sci-fi disaster movie.

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