Thursday February 9 2023 Forecast (7:23AM)

73 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 9-13)

Low pressure tracks through the eastern Great Lakes and across southeastern Canada today into Friday, dragging its warm front / cold front combo through our region. This will be a minor precipitation producer with only areas of light rain arriving this afternoon into tonight and maybe a left over rain shower early Friday. Behind the cold front, the air will actually be warmer than today’s ahead of warm front air, with a couple record highs potentially being challenged. A secondary cold front will sweep across the region Friday evening setting us up for a cooler weekend, but no major cold and certainly a far, far cry from the arctic blast of late last week. Generally dry weather is expected for the weekend, but low pressure organizing to our south will spread cloudiness back into our region during Sunday. While this low, fueled by Gulf of Mexico moisture and a southern branch of the jet stream, will pass not all that far south of New England, a strong northern jet stream in a split flow will likely limit its ability to impact our region, with the northern extent of the precipitation shield potentially advancing into our region for some wet weather Sunday night into Monday, but favoring the South Coast and areas south of I-90 as it stands now. It’s going to be a close call though. A slight shift either way expands the precipitation northward or pulls it mainly offshore. Whatever does make it into our region will likely fall as rain with a significant lack of cold air remaining, but the temperature may be marginal especially inland, so if the precipitation did happen to make it further north and west into the region, some mix/snow would have to be considered. For now, this is a remote possibility, and I’ll keep an eye on the potential heading through late week and into the weekend.

TODAY: Clouds move in. Scattered light rain during the afternoon hours. Some sleet possible north and west of Boston. Highs 43-50 by late day. Wind variable under 10 MPH becoming SE up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy with a chance of rain and areas of fog during the evening. Breaking clouds overnight. Temperatures rising slowly to 48-55 by morning. Wind SE up to 10 MPH becoming S and increasing to 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny with a quick passing rain shower possible in the morning. Partly to mostly sunny afternoon. Highs 55-62. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, gusts around 30 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 28-35. Wind shifting to NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 36-43. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 20-27. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sunshine followed by increasing clouds. Highs 42-49. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Chance of rain near the South Coast and possibly up to the I-90 belt. Lows 35-42. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Cloudy with a chance of rain favoring southern and southeastern areas in the morning with some clearing possible during the afternoon. Highs 42-49. Wind NE 10-20 MPH except possibly stronger in coastal areas, shifting to NW and diminishing later.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 14-18)

A broad southwesterly air flow aloft will be the dominant feature as low pressure troughing dominates the western US with the all-too-familiar Southeast ridge in place to our south. Surface high pressure brings fair weather for Valentine’s Day before a disturbance brings the chance of rain showers February 15. Watching for another system with rain and possible mix in the February 16-17 window with dry weather to follow that. Temperatures averaging above normal, may cool to normal end of period.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 19-23)

One or two precipitation threats are possible in a fairly active pattern. Temperatures trend a little cooler but no major cold indicated at this point.

73 thoughts on “Thursday February 9 2023 Forecast (7:23AM)”

  2. Good morning and thank you TK.

    I was reminded with today’s discussion about how much detail you always seem to pack into your discussions. Very nice and very much appreciated. THANK YOU!

  7. Question and I should know the answer. Is there a link that will individuallycompare both July and august temps from 2021 and 2022? It just needs to be an overall average temp. Thank you for your help!

      1. Where it says date, enter the 2 July dates you mentioned.

        It defaults to Boston and has at least the 4 major reporting climate locations in southern New England.

    2. Save the link Tom gave you, but here’s the data for Boston…

      7-2021: 72.4 / departure -1.7
      7-2022: 77.5 / departure +3.4

      8-2021: 76.9 / departure +4.2
      8-2022: 76.7 / departure +4.0

  8. Hmmm
    Not that it would snow here Sunday night, but
    the 12Z NAM and RDPS “appear” to indicate that
    SNE “may” be visited by the coastal system.
    It looks like it would spread it’s precip shield into
    SNE. Probably no farther North, but Most of SNE.

    We shall see.

    GFS is cranking now.

    NAM 500 mb at 84 hours

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=500th&rh=2023020912&fh=84

    Surface

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=ref1km_ptype&rh=2023020912&fh=84

  9. Thank you both VERY much. Seven months and an even 25
    Conversations later with various national grid folks. I finally had a supv review my account. She is as confused as I am. She said due to estimates and a meter replacement that was never reset, she has no idea how where any concrete numbers came from for the $1600 bill.

    I have to add that with two exception the folks I’ve spoke to at nat grid are wonderful.

    Again….thank you both. I like to have as much background info as possible so this is the perfect.

  12. I’d like to also echo comments made by several on this blog about the incredibly detailed and clear explanations TK provides in each forecast. Meteorology is complicated and often messy (especially when there are conflicting model outcomes). TK does a great job analyzing what’s happening now and what is likely to occur in the future.

  13. Our building is VERY lucky. The heating system motor (that heats the water) is kaput. Had this happened last weekend, we’d be in big trouble. The service people are trying to get us a replacement motor, but it won’t come in until tomorrow. Meanwhile, cold showers for all of us in the building. They do wake you up! But, at least our pipes won’t freeze. And while it’s not warm in the building, the mild temps outside mean it won’t get very cold.

    1. 850 and 925 temps are good at this point.
      If it got a tad closer with longer duration/heavier precip
      it would likely SNOW

  17. I’d also like to recognize TK for his attention to detail and his great discussions, which find that perfect balance of being easy to understand, yet contains a lot of meteorology concepts that can be learned from.

  18. I wonder if I could ask for prayers and positive thoughts for my oldest. She has been struggling with something related to eyes, ears, vertigo for a couple of months. Doctors have no idea why and her appointments are weeks apart. She is home now but was in the ED all night. They sent her home having no idea what caused her sudden pain, and more.

    Thank you so much

    1. sorry to hear Vicki !

      I certainly hope this turns around for her and that someone can diagnose what is going on and help her out !

      1. Thank you, Tom. The specialist at mass eye and ear has the audacity to tell her yesterday that what she is suffering from now is not related to what she had three or so weeks ago when she first saw him. It is all centered around head, eyes and ears.

        If anyone has a recommendation for an eye and ear Dr, we’d sure appreciate it.

        1. It would be a long way, but my daughter goes to South Shore Hospital Mass Eye and Ear.

          I’m pretty sure they treat adults too.

          I have found her doctor to be kind, she listens and her diagnosis’ have been spot on.

          Hopefully, you can find something closer to central Mass as this is in Weymouth.

          Good luck !!

        2. Vicki where was this Mass Eye And Ear Dr?
          I would seek out a dept head at Mass Eye and Ear in Boston.

          Even if there is an affiliation, you’re not getting the same quality dr as it the real McCoy.

          The Drs at Mass Eye and Ear in Boston are very good.

          1. He is in wellesley and is a dept head but I agree it’s time to move to Boston. And I will mentions tom’s Dr also. It may not be too far for good care.

      1. They have. Mac’s cousin has this. It is difficult to diagnose from what she said. JPD. I truly appreciate your suggestion. And your well wishes

        1. I hope I wasn’t inappropriate. Only meant to help.
          it’s just that it sounded like it might be a possibility and I don’t know where she was seen.

          My Wife has eye issues (Glaucoma) and is seen by the dept head at Mass Eye and Ear. One time she was seen elsewhere and the visit left much to be desired.

          best of luck and I hope this resolves soon.

    4. Vicki – I am so sorry to hear this. I wish for a quick resolution and will be keeping her and your family in my thoughts.

  19. Vicki, I’m very sorry to hear about your oldest’s health struggles. My thoughts are with her, you, and your family.

  21. Vicki,
    It is really none of my business, but since you were seeking help, I offered only what I thought was best. Only you can decide
    what is best for your daughter. Btw, is this the one who works
    in Millis? Best of luck.

    1. I am so appreciative of your suggestion. And I always appreciate your input and everyone’s. Yes. She is the one who works at the equestrian center in millis.

  22. Vicki, so sorry to hear about your daughter. I hope that it can be resolved soon.

    Has there been a Covid-19 consideration? I don’t know if she ever had Covid, but if so, there is that “Post Covid” going around even though Covid levels are steadily decreasing across our state. I’ve been hearing quite a bit about that recently again. Just a thought.

    1. Thank you, Philip. Another really good suggestion. She has not had Covid. But it sure fits some of the symptoms. She was bitten by a tick in November that tested positive for Lyme. She did have blood work but so far the pcp she just left can’t figure how to post it on patient gateway. And she is a partners doctor.

      1. Vicki, without even knowing your daughter had tested positive for Lyme I was going to ask you if she had gone ahead to test for this and glad she did. I have suffered with it myself and have had similar symptoms and tested positive for several confections of which the preliminary lyme tests don’t pick up. Has she thought about seeing a lyme literate doctor? If you go to lymedisease.org there are many resources including a physician directory. I hope this helps! Best of luck to her!

        1. Scott. Thank you. I have thought all along the doctors should focus on Lyme also. I know from others also that Lyme can take a few blood tests to show up. I will check the site and talk to Kim.

          1. Ohhh I just reread. Kim did not test positive but she sent the tick into a lab and the tick tested positive.

  23. I honestly don’t have words to tell everyone how appreciative we all are for your prayers and positive thoughts and suggestions. What an amazing family we are part of. Thanks to TK and to every eye special person who posts and to those who follow but so not yet post

  26. Sorry to hear about your daughter Vicki. I wish I had a suggestion but it’s out of my field.

    Quick weather question: most of the attention tomorrow is on the temperature but I wondered if you thought there would be any questions with the wind. No watches etc so far that I have seen. Thanks.

    1. I saw that and this is definitely possible. Guidance tends to under-do the temps in this set-up. If we had a snow cover, I would likely not forecast temps this mild, but without one, it’s going to be easier to get there with sunshine.

  28. Just catching up. My brother took my mom up to the hospital to visit my brother today, so I am taking care of some odds / ends / errands that give that relief when they are out of your way.

    Vicki, my best wishes for your daughter. I hope they can find out the cause and a treatment very very soon!

    No update on my brother yet – they are up there now and I’ll get one soon. I’ve got some dog sitting duty in a while.

    Speaking of, if any of you happen to know anybody or know anybody who knows anybody who is capable of fostering an older dog for an unknown amount of time, please let me know…

    1. Thank you, TK. Your brother and you and your family remain in my prayers. I am happy your mom is visiting.

      I can ask on the Sutton FB page about your pup. Or even my FB page. If you think that would help, we can talk on messenger.

      1. You can definitely do that if you want. We do want to avoid having to go too far to transport the dog or having anybody come up too far – since the dog is in Woburn, but you never know who might know who and where they may be. The dog is 12, female, blind in one eye, friendly but can suffer anxiety. Her name is Tuukka. I’ll message you if there are any other details to add. Thank you. 🙂

        1. Perfect. Thank you. I’ll out something together and post in the morning. Things posted at night seem to get lost.

  29. As you know, we still have a long way to go, despite the lack of snow up to now and the pattern going forward for the confidently foreseeable future. Anybody who lives around here knows you do NOT count out any winter for producing some significant snow, no matter how it’s gone so far, until you reach and pass the latest dates we’ve seen significant snowfall. But since the snow, or lack thereof, has quite a bit of attention, let’s take a look at Boston’s & Worcester’s top 5 least-snowy winters, and where each location is as of today…

    Boston’s Least Snowy Winters…
    #5: 1994-1995 / 14.9 inches
    #4: 1979-1980 / 12.7 inches
    #3: 1972-1973 / 10.3 inches
    #2: 2011-2012 / 9.3 inches
    #1: 1936-1937 / 9.0 inches
    Currently at 7.9 inches.

    Worcester’s Least Snowy Winters…
    #5: 1979-1980 / 26.6 inches
    #4: 1994-1995 / 24.9 inches
    #3: 1936-1937 / 24.6 inches
    #2: 1912-1913 / 23.2 inches
    #1: 1954-1955 / 21.2 inches
    Currently at 17.5 inches.

  30. Heads up to the potential for a little sneaky snowfall around Valentine’s Day morning. Nothing too big, but might be a little disturbance with some potency coming along the pipeline while there is some cold air in place. This is over 4 days out, so it’s a rough idea, but something to keep in mind.

    1. I’m not sure it looks warm on the outlook . Sunday will be rain as well I believe . This month is absolutely flying by with the halfway mark on Tuesday

      1. Should be in the upper 20s that morning. 😉 You can get snow will overall above normal temperatures. All you need is a couple hours…

  31. I like the fact that while the tv Mets have been showing off the CPC outlook maps, they also caution their viewing audience that the month of March can still bring decent snows.

    Time to write off February? On to March for LAST CALL for SNOWFALL!?! 😉

    1. We can’t write off February based on a temperature forecast for a percentage chance of above normal temps over several days.

      You can get snow with temperatures above normal.

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