Tuesday December 26 2023 Forecast (7:14AM)

70 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 26-30)

Where’s Rudolph when you really need him? A very foggy start to the day after Christmas across the region as calm wind is met with matching temperature and dew point essentially across the entire WHW forecast area. If you have plans to travel on the roads, use caution from early through mid morning until the fog finally thins out and dissipates. This will take place as a southwesterly breeze develops and warms the temperature above dew point levels while also mixing the air up to clear the fog. Some fog patches may re-develop tonight though as we have very light wind. Wednesday, a southeast breeze will repeat the process that today’s southwest breeze does. The southeast breeze Wednesday will be ahead of low pressure that will move up from the Mid Atlantic and bring our region a slug of rain Wednesday afternoon and night into Thursday morning, before tapering off as the low moves away. But we’ll remain unsettled into late week as a follow-up low moves just south of the region Friday and still upper level energy has to pull through the region on Saturday. Additional precipitation Friday would be in the form of rain, but as we get to Saturday, colder air filtering in would mean some areas would flip to snow showers before it dried out.

TODAY: Dense fog into mid morning eventually thins out and dissipates. Mostly cloudy. Highs 46-53. Wind calm then SW up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Areas of fog. Lows 36-43. Wind S under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Rain arriving. Highs 43-50. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain likely. Areas of fog. Lows 38-45. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Cloudy start – rain tapers off. Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain showers in the afternoon. Highs 45-52. Wind NE-N 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain possible. Patchy fog. Lows 38-45. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain possible. Highs 40-47. Wind NE up to 15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain and/or snow showers. Lows 32-39. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Chance of snow showers through midday. Highs 35-42. Wind N-NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 31 – JANUARY 4)

Dry end to 2023. Watch for potential unsettled weather from low pressure in the region around January 2. Fair weather returns later in the period. Temperatures near normal.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 5-9)

Another storm threat possible around mid period with rain/snow chances. Temperatures near normal.

70 thoughts on “Tuesday December 26 2023 Forecast (7:14AM)”

  1. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Quite foggy last evening on our drive back home from Hopkinton. Hit a few spots where the vis was dangerously low, however, for the most part , annoying but manageable.

    Ocean temp at Boston buoy: 46.9

  3. Thanks TK

    NORAD showed Santa did indeed use Rudolph Christmas Eve though. My guess is he is back at his North Pole home resting.

  4. Visibility was 1/4 mile or lower for my entire drive from Brockton to Nashua at 1:30am

    One thing TK didn’t mention – lots of spots across the interior down to 31/32 right now, could result in some slick spots on the roads. Pavement temperatures are down to 33-36 in many places, so a little black ice is possible.

  8. Water temperature at the Block Island buoy plunged to 50.5 degrees. Not bad for this time of year for the New Year’s Day polar bear ‍❄️ swims.

  9. Probably should have mentioned the black ice on the short term.

    I was seeing my son off on a trip to NJ at dawn today.

  11. re: FOG
    Here is an oddity with the fog.
    As I mentioned previously, we encountered pretty dense fog
    driving home from Hopkinton last evening. We had to drop
    off our SIL’s sister in West Roxbury. It was very very thick fog
    and we transitioned from Newton to West Roxbury and after we dropped off SIL’s sister, still soupy on the VFW parkway. Then Suddenly as we entered JP, the fog lifted and it was CLEAR as it could possibly be. NOT a hint of fog whatsoever!
    Amazing!!

  12. Thanks, TK!

    Happy Boxing Day and St. Stephen’s Day!

    I hope everyone had a great yesterday and that Santa was good to all!

    For me, as a teacher, Boxing Day is the actual start of the school vacation. Next year, Christmas will be a Wednesday and the schools will be closed the Monday and Tuesday before the holiday, giving me/us some “breathing room” before Christmas Day! 🙂

    I was just remembering the Boxing Day Blizzard of 2010. Taunton recorded 17.3″ on December 26-27.

    Yesterday, my family and I were speaking about some memorable Christmas weather in our lives. I remember an unexpected White Christmas in 1974. I had just gone to bed on Christmas Eve after hearing Bruce Schwoegler announce that there would not be a White Christmas and waking up on Christmas morning with about 3″ of snow on the ground.

    In 1980, a very sharp cold front came through during the afternoon with dangerous wind chills. The low at midnight, December 25 was -10.

    I think it was six years ago that snow squalls came through the area mid-Christmas morning. I believe it was 2017 although I am not sure. I do remember hearing that Christmas morning services lost power in the region.

    1. 2017 I’ll never forget as we were at work at 3am for the storm . It was very warm at that point & pouring rain & then by 8am it was full snow . Ended up doing snow removal at the hospital till like 6pm Christmas night , totally missing Xmas . We ended up doing it the next day .

      1. I’m with Mel and JP Dave. This is definitely NOT winter. And I really miss it. Could it arrive? Yes, for sure. But do I expect it to arrive in anything other than a fleeting way? No.

        1. Agree. I really don’t expect much in the way of Winter this year. IN fact, I think my already LOW snow guess may be in JEOPARDY.

          YES, I do remember 2015!!!! So I suppose this can change.
          I keep watching, but I am NOT hopeful. I keep remembering several Winters where the experts kept saying the cold and Snow is COMING! NOT! On those particular years, it NEVER came. Will that happen this year? We do not know. I, for one, do NOT have good vibes, but I didn’t in 2015 so there you go. 🙂 🙂

          1. Guys we are not into winter yet for even a week , relax . However saying that I mean it must be global warming right . As a kid I never recall so many easy winters in a row ( this one to be determined)

            1. We definitely strung 3 or 4 relatively easy winters together “back then”. For example, 1978-1979, 1979-1980, and 1980-1980 drove all the snow lovers completely bonkers. And the 1980s in general did that. Good storms were hard to come by from the end of the 1970s until the end of 1992.

  14. Medium range models go out 10 days and the GFS goes out 16 days. Other than a little GFS fantasy, there is NO SNOW projected out through 1/5 or in the case of the GFS out to 1/11.

    I am NOT liking the looks of that. Of course, it is still early yet and things CERTAINLY can change. But still, C’mon, show a little love! Looking mighty GRIM.

    In case anyone cares, here is the GFS fantasy minor snow event:

    And this is WEST of the city

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat-imp&rh=2023122606&fh=105&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2023122606&fh=105&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    Here is the snow in the city

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat-imp&rh=2023122606&fh=204&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    Total both events

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2023122606&fh=210&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

  16. So I would TOTALLY DISCOUNT the GFS and go with the other
    2.

    NO SNOW through 10 days. Waiting on 12Z runs to see IF there are any changes. I doubt it, at least not in the snow department, but we shall see.

  17. We were lucky (some say spoiled) with Tom Brady. And I think that this year’s KC Chiefs/Patrick Mahomes kind of proves the point. I like Mahomes. He’s an excellent QB. But Mahomes is NO Brady. Nobody is like Brady. No-one will do what Brady did. What TB could do every single year is make the Patriots not only competitive but also have a great record and at least an AFC championship appearance in most of those years. And he often did it without much of a receiving corps. In fact, there were plenty of years in which he had almost no-one good to throw it to. He was able to make it work with less talent around him. Great decision-maker. Steady presence.

    1. Fun times, indeed. I loved that snow blitz the most of all the snowy and wintry years I’ve experienced in Boston, because it happened at a time that snow really sticks around and it was consistently cold, practically every day. The snowpack in downtown (!) Boston was impressive and lasted a very long time.

      The thing about last `winter’ and this winter thus far is that we haven’t been (and won’t be for the foreseeable future) even remotely close to having a solid ice layer on small ponds, let alone something like 2011 and 2015 gave us. Oh well … it’s nice to have fond memories of winter.

      1. I have many, unfortunately, not so many recent ones!

        2015 was the most GLORIOUS WINTER I have ever experiences and in the short time I have left on this Earth, Don’t ever expect to see again! 🙂

        I absolutely adored that part of that particular Winter, even though it was very slow to get going, in the end, it was well made up!!!

  19. Noting another run to run difference on the GFS. Hr 168 on the 00z where a sfc low is off the Carolina coast vs hr 156 on the current 12z where the sfc low is in the Ohio valley.

    Embarrassing.

  20. At least with the gfs, I doubt we’ll reliably know a snow fall is coming until it’s within 36 hrs of the event.

    Hopefully the euro/canadian and short range models can extend that out to maybe 72 hrs.

  24. Seems like a big difference in rain totals this week. Ch. 4 has 1-2” while 5 and NWS have around half an inch. Think I know where TK falls on the outlook. Just a question of using different models? Thanks

  27. Thanks, TK.
    My husband was rushed to the hospital this morning with chest and back pains. No one has seen him yet in the ER but the firemen that took him in said it might be a blockage. I am a wreck, especially since I have anxiety disorder. I would be there with him but my husband says don’t come because sick people are lined up in the hall.

    2. Hoping they see him soon Rainshine and for the best.

      I have anxiety issues myself, try to deep breathe if you can.

    4. So sorry Rainshine. Sending up prayers for your husband and for you. Hope he gets some answers soon and is on the road to recovery.

      1. Yes, understood.

        So, as it looks right now, Boston Will come in at 0.2 inch
        for December. I wonder what the record low snowfall is
        for December? I really don’t know, But I presume it is
        0,00 inch?????????

        2. Boston recorded 0.0 for December snow in 1999 & 2011.

          There have been at least a half dozen occasions on which they recorded no measurable, but a trace fell, most of them before 1975.

          The snowiest stretch of Decembers on record were 2007 through 2010 when all 4 of them had above to much above normal snowfall. It was the longest such stretch of above normal snow on record. So when people tell you it never snows in December anymore, they’re suffering “recency bias”. December’s snowiest decade overall was the first 10 years of the 2000s.

          2. Boston officially recorded a trace in 2011 (as well as 1973, 1957, 1953, 1927, 1899, and 1891). 1999 is the only time Boston had 0.0 snow in December. However, it was highly suspect. Logan did not record it’s first flakes that year until January 13, 2000. Meanwhile, Blue Hill, who also didn’t have measurable snow until January 13, reported a trace nine times that winter before then. I recall that winter that there was always some flurries around, and when they’d go over Boston, they’d either mysteriously not report anything, or would report rain (or freezing rain), even when everyone else had snow.

  30. Thank you for all your good wishes. He is still in the emergency room and waiting for some results. He is in some pain. They may be doing a test, not sure. 2 days ago our cable tv box broke and he had to take it apart and bring it to the Comcast store. Once home, it didn’t work. He brought it back the day of Christmas Eve and they gave him a new one. He had to carry it home w/a lot of groceries. I am hoping it may be strained muscles, but probably not. In any case, he and others won’t let me see him as the halls are filled with people lined up and Covid is around according to the hospital. Back in the day, I would have been w/him. It’s tough. I doubt he will be home today. Will try to relax.

    1. All the best, Rainshine! Sending you and your husband positive thoughts!!!

      I am in North Dartmouth right now. Boy, the fog sure rolled in fast. Visibility has dropped.

    3. I am so sorry to see this rainshine & please know you will both be in my prayers . Covid is showing up big time right now in all the Hospital’s as well as other respiratory infections so if anyone has underlying medical conditions a Hospital right now is not the place to visit . Try to meditate & communicate & know that others are thinking of you both !! I sincerely hope for the best outcome

  31. Rainshine, I’m thinking of your husband and you. Do take care. I’m sure your husband is in good hands at the hospital.

  32. As I’ve said many times before, we are VERY fortunate in New England with ample sunshine and relatively few rainy days throughout the year. It’s REALLY not that way in many parts of the Northern Hemisphere that are in Northern latitudes. Consider, for example, this rinse and repeat forecast for the UK (it’s like a broken record, I’ve been seeing this forecast basically twice a week for months on end): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uNuOoe8EloI

    My daughter told me that wherever she walks outside it’s either puddles or mud and it’s been that way nearly constantly for months.

  36. Rainfall expectations with upcoming event: 0.25-1.00 inch. Not expecting any flooding issues.

    Wind expectations with upcoming event: A few gusts may approach 30 MPH in coastal areas, but otherwise not really a wind event.

    MJO update: Phase 1. But no snowstorms because of the very +AO and lack of cold. Phases 2-3 are next, but as this happens the strength will drop off again as we head for “the circle”.

    Nothing I see screams “snowstorm” to me through the first week of January as it stands now.

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