Sunday December 31 2023 Forecast (12:01AM)

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DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 31 – JANUARY 4)

So now we have made it to the final day of 2023 and this is the final update of the year. Not a lot of change to write about in today’s blog post. I haven’t felt much uncertainty in my forecasting of this pattern and that higher confidence continues as we end a mild and rather snowless month of December and head into the first month of the new year. For this final day of 2023 we will have a dry and seasonably chilly day. A disturbance is going to pass by mostly to our southwest on the first day of 2024 but enough moisture is around that a brief rain or snow shower can occur here. Following that we have a couple of seasonably chilly and generally dry days for Tuesday and Wednesday. There will be a weak cold front pushing through the region later Wednesday that can produce a snow flurry, but that will probably be the exception rather than the rule. Low pressure scoots by the region on Thursday, its evolving center passing to our southeast and the bulk of its moisture staying offshore so just a little light snowfall or mixed precipitation / rain closer to the South Coast is what I am expecting.

TODAY: Partly sunny. Highs 36-43. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 25-32. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. A passing snow flurry or sprinkle of rain possible. Highs 35-42. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 22-29. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 35-42. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 22-29. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. A passing snow flurry possible. Highs 36-41. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 21-28. Wind N under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Cloudy through early afternoon with a period of snow except mix/rain possible South Coast. Highs 33-40. Wind NE-N 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 5-9)

Watch for a southern jet stream storm system near or south of the region mid period. Temperatures near to above normal.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 10-14)

Weather pattern transition brings one disturbance through the region early in the period that delivers some cold air after some precipitation, followed by our first winter storm threat toward the end of the period.

105 thoughts on “Sunday December 31 2023 Forecast (12:01AM)”

      1. You’re welcome. Finally got that feature to work. Now I can share things like this more directly.

  4. Thanks TK.

    This may be the “earliest” fresh blog you’ve ever posted.

    MLK Weekend rarely fails us for snow potential! It’s more than I can say for Christmas Day around here. 😉

    1. Maybe. I think I posted one at 12:00 on the button once.

      Climate odds of snow in mid January are higher than late December, so that would be true.

      Have a great day and Happy New Year.

  9. Good morning and thank you TK

    A little something that shows that Ocean temperature is just not dependent on Air temperature.

    Yesterday, the ocean temp at Boston Buoy (16NM East of Boston) was 46.9

    This morning it sits at 45.1. Now it wasn’t cold enough to drop it nearly 2 degrees overnight, so something else is clearly at play.
    Perhaps shifting ocean currents or perhaps even some up welling from wind blowing warmer surface water away and colder sub surface water comes up to the surface or perhaps even something else.

    https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/upwelling.html

    1. Currents. They result in more immediate changes than the seasonal ones, which are gradual and lag the air, as you know.

    2. The ocean knows about all the New Years Day polar plunges and doesn’t want to disappoint 🙂

      I could never jump into water this cold.

      My wife and daughters have before.

      1. I think I could, although I have never done it, other than falling through the ice a few times. Does that count? 🙂

    1. The January signals I see for disturbances/low pressure impacts: January 4, 7, 10, 13-14 window.

  16. Watched Taylor Swift’s Eras Tour Movie last night. I did NOT expect to enjoy it as my wife wanted to watch it. I was pleasantly surprised. She put on one heck of a show, I’ll tell you that!

    btw, I didn’t mind looking at her either. 🙂

      1. Streaming for $19.89 (get that? 1989 was one of her albums)

        We watched it on Amazon Prime, but it is available on Comcast Demand and probably a few others.

        It is NOT free, at least not yet. She is still making $$$$ from that movie.

      2. Technically you watched her reputations tour which was leaving Netflix. So next time we can rent the era’s tour for even more fun! 🙂

        2. Also, her album was named 1989 because she was born in 1989. And her favorite number is 13 so when it was in theaters the adult price was $19.89 and the kids price was $13.13. #mydaughtersareswifties 🙂

          1. You should watch it with Eden and dara for maximum entertainment value, is all I’m saying 🙂 by the summer maybe it will be free.

  18. Wishing you all, your families and the world, particularly its children, health, joy and peace in 2024!

    Here, I am especially thinking of you, Philip, your husband, Rainshine, your brother, Vicki, and your Mom, Brian. Philip, I hope you considering posting here off and on in the new year. I believe I speak for everyone here that we care for you and miss your comments when you’re not here.

    Off to pick up sticks and branches from the December 18 storm in a yardwork season that doesn’t want to end! 🙂

  20. Needless to say, weather can impact people’s lives. Sometimes terribly so. But more often than not, just a (expensive) nuisance. To illustrate, my ex-wife, who was visiting my daughter, is now waiting to board a delayed flight to Amsterdam from London (due to high winds) after her Eurostar train was canceled yesterday owing to flooding. This has impacted thousands of folks, some of whom are stranded given that now pretty much every means of transportation is sold out. My daughter’s mother had to pay several hundred pounds for a 35 minute flight to get home. She couldn’t wait until later this week as she’s due in court (she’s a judge).

  21. Thanks TK. Happy New Year all, hope everyone’s doing well! Long time no talk – my online presence in general is pretty limited these days, busy with work and personal endeavors – I also got engaged this past month! 🙂 But I’ll try to check in more in 2024, and I do regularly lurk here to keep tabs on the old stomping grounds! Thanks to TK as always for his work here.

    Incidentally, I was in town over Christmas, and could’ve been forgiven for thinking I’d never left SoCal what with the bare ground and mild temps 😉 though it looks like that may finally change for y’all soon…

    2. Oh my. You must have read my thoughts. You were on my mind yesterday. My very best wishes on your engagement. I wish you both a lifetime of happiness.

      It’s always special to see you here. Happy New Year!!!

  22. The 0Z Euro certainly had the system for the 7th, however, along the coast there was considerable rain and only 2-3 inches of snow. We shall see what the 12Z run will show. Should start coming out soon.

      2. The way this winter is off to a slow start I will be happy with 1-3 inches of snow with that potential storm system and at least have it look like winter.

  24. Verbatim, a 985-980 mb low not moving far in 12 hrs. That would be a candidate for an eastern mass coast storm surge.

    Thank goodness tides are very astronomically low in this time frame.

  25. My heat kicked in early morning for the first time in maybe four days. Maybe three. It went on twice today. Only for about five minutes but still was needed. We hit 40 a bit ago

    Let’s count how many times I said maybe and about and only 🙄

  26. We are told my brother may be discharged from the hospital to his rehab early this week. He has a long way to go in rehab but then four days ago he was not expected to recover from the sepsis. So we shall see. He continues to amaze us.

  27. Thanks Tk , congrats WK, good news Vicki , hi Philip keep posting . Happy New year !!! Working tomorrow double time & half .

  28. FYI: If anybody reading this has emailed me on woodshillweather@gmail.com, I haven’t had access to that account for a while but I have it again, so your emails were not intentionally ignored.

    Going forward, anybody can use that for weather questions, concerns, comments that they don’t wish to post in the open comment section, but there may be little gaps of time between me checking it, at least initially.

    Anyway, thanks.

  30. A couple of things
    1. The pattern is happening to late, once I am gone from New england I don’t care about snow hitting the area really as I wanted it when I was here.

    2. the snow is hitting to late for my ski trip from the 5 to 7th with the ski day being the 6th.

    3. EURO also shows a storm the night before the morning I am to leave to go to St. Thomas on the 10th

    Seems mother nature hates me lol

  31. Euro for the 7th

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=prateptype_cat_ecmwf-imp&rh=2023123112&fh=168&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

    10:1 snow

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=sn10_acc-imp&rh=2023123112&fh=186&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    Euro for the 10th

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=prateptype_cat_ecmwf-imp&rh=2023123112&fh=228&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

    10:1 snow

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=sn10_024h-imp&rh=2023123112&fh=240&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

  33. TK, just wanted to join the chorus of thank yous as we wrap up 2023 (and belatedly celebrate 13 years of the blog). I’ve only been reading it for 3 years, and reading it daily for a little less than that (don’t remember exactly). People sometimes ask me why exactly I find interest in a weather report from 3,000 miles away. I admit it’s only of practical use roughly twice a year. But I enjoy your writing style and I appreciate learning about weather from you. I know it’s no longer your full time job, but you still apply your education In meteorology and your 30 plus years of experience in it to making impressively accurate forecasts and also explaining how you’re doing what you’re doing. I don’t comment all that often, but when I do I see how many comments are on here and how you respond to almost all the questions throughout the day. It’s a lot of work. And you still answer specific forecast questions for my Boston family and I’m sure countless others. Here’s hoping 2024 is a smoother year for you than this one was, and thanks again for being a part of my morning routine.

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