Monday January 15 2024 Forecast (7:43AM)

179 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 15-19)

High pressure brings dry and cold weather to the region during today. A wave of low pressure heads northeastward off the coast Tuesday, passing southeast of New England, bringing our region a widespread light to borderline moderate snowfall. This will be followed by a dry and cold midweek. Another storm threat looms later in the week with a chance of snow returning during Friday – details TBD depending on low pressure’s track.

TODAY (MLK JR DAY): Mostly sunny. Highs 25-32. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts possible. Wind chill below 20 at times.

TONIGHT: Clear evening. Clouds arrive overnight. Lows 16-23. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Cloudy. Snow likely, with accumulations of 2 to 4 inches in general, a few under 2 inch amounts MA South Shore to South Coast, a few isolated amounts up to 5 inches possible north and west of Boston. Highs 26-33. Wind NE-N 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Gradual clearing. 15-22. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 25-32. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 12-19. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 26-33. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 13-20. Wind N under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Clouding over. Snow likely by later in the day and at night. Highs 27-34. Wind N-NE 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 20-24)

Fair weather returns for the January 20-21 weekend with below normal temperatures, coldest January 20. A minor system may bring a few snow showers to the region around the middle of the period but overall fair weather and a moderating temperature trend expected later in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 25-29)

Watching for a potential storm somewhere in the early to mid portion of this period with fair weather to return behind it. Temperatures closer to normal.

179 thoughts on “Monday January 15 2024 Forecast (7:43AM)”

    1. So between 4:30 AM and 7:30 AM they backed of just a bit.
      Oh, what a monster snow storm this will be!!!!

      FIGURES! We can’t even manage 1/2 a foot. PATHETIC!

  5. One final round of snow showers did come through early last evening and left a dusting of snow. I would NOT call it a snow squall because in my opinion the intensity fell short of that.
    A solid light to border line moderate is all it could muster for a few minutes. Another FAIL here. Not saying it was a fail everywhere because I could see that was not the case, but it was a FAIL here. 🙂

  9. Thank you, TK.

    Martin Luther King pursued justice for blacks. He and his followers did this using Gandhian non-violent resistance. Jailed many times, he never gave up. While his dream hasn’t been fulfilled and we as a nation appear to be backsliding, his speeches remain a source of inspiration.

    The “I have a dream” speech in its entirety: https://www.npr.org/2010/01/18/122701268/i-have-a-dream-speech-in-its-entirety

    Video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vP4iY1TtS3s

  10. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=sfct-imp&rh=2024011512&fh=21&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=ref1km_ptype&rh=2024011512&fh=21&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=sfct-imp&rh=2024011512&fh=21&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=ref1km_ptype&rh=2024011512&fh=21&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    With the HRRR and NAM, it’s pretty clear we’ll wake up to a commute with some snow impacting things.

    Both 9z shows a light snow and temps in the mid 20s.

    What will happen for a while near Boston and points SE later in this event, we’ll see 🙂

  11. As this is more of a wave than a well developed low, the winds should be lighter.

    I’ve learned my lesson though. 🙂 Even light E or NE for a while plus possible warming for a time above may not keep it all snow in far SE Mass.

    But, it will be in the 20s inland and that cold air is dense and heavy so I’m curious if at low levels, it might return at the end, so we end as a little freezing mist/drizzle in interior SE Mass, especially ……

  12. 12z 3km nam shows a strong signal for freezing rain in eastern ma, including boston with temp in 20s.
    after 3 inches of snow. now that would be wintry.

  13. This could be a system that reminds, for impact, it’s not how much, but rather when and what type of precip.

    I can see that morning commute being a mess and some tricky travel all day if a zone transitions to a little sleet or frz drizzle while staying in the mid-upper 20s.

  17. An old saying TK and I learned back in the day from some older and wiser co-workers:

    “It’s easier to snow after it’s been warm than after it’s been cold”

  19. Some weather-related headlines like this one from CNN are ridiculous:
    Temperatures below -60 degrees expected this week

    Of course, this is really the expected wind chill value.

    However, I have no reason to question this headline from that bastion of journalistic integrity, The Onion:
    Iowa Blizzard Forces Ron DeSantis, Nikki Haley To Share Hotel Room

  20. Driving up by one entrance to Duxbury Beach and then another to green harbor beach away, see small red sands, for trucks I presume, for where to turn for sand deliveries. 🙁

  22. Now the 12Z GFS shows a slug of freezing RAIN!
    Geez, we can’t win!!!!

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat-imp&rh=2024011512&fh=30&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    Show quite bit of freezing rain

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=zr_acc-imp&rh=2024011512&fh=36&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    Total Kuchera Snow. This is the most robust of the models so far.

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2024011512&fh=36&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

  26. The one thing they all do have in common is a light snow breaking out everywhere (Cape Cod too) a few hours prior to 7am and temps in the mid 20s.

    I feel like when folks walk out the door and see a lot of snow on the ground, overall, the driving is taken more seriously.

    An inch and the top blades of the grass are still visible, not so much and there are fender benders everywhere.

    1. Yup, you are correct. We shall see. 🙂

      We don’t need any freezing rain on top of it. Let’s hope we avoid that.

      1. Indeed.

        I think we could avoid frz rain at Logan, downtown Boston and coastal Mass.

        Not as strong a breeze, so I wonder how you will do if the column can’t support snow at some point.

    2. Not sure.

      I kind of keep harping on the potential for the morning commute to be impacted and I think that’s the bigger story vs what the actual snow amount will end up.

      To your question: I still see some mets out there, including TK if I’m reading his forecast correct, that would keep us all snow and then yes, 2-4 is in play.

  30. For Martin Luther King day, I typically read his I have a dream speech. Thank you, Joshua, for posting. And I will also re re re re rewatch Guess Who’s Coming to Dinner. It was released in 1967 …six months after I graduated high school. . It never fails to give me pause that this was in my lifetime. But then we have now just moved from one group to another which seems to be our history.

  32. Beautiful day for a long run. Did my 7 miles just now. Sun is bright and, believe it or not, quite warm (I’m sweating). But at least the air is refreshing.

    For those of you who’ve traveled to Northern latitudes in winter, like Canada, Alaska, Northern Europe and elsewhere you’ll know what I mean by saying the sun in SNE feels much closer in mid winter than it does in the places I just mentioned. When it’s sunny in winter in the Netherlands, for example, the sun feels very far away. That is not the case here. And it’s our latitude that makes the difference.

  33. Thanks TK.

    Looks like the 2-5″ outcome is going to be the winner. FWIW, 2-5″ would’ve been a bold call based on most of the guidance from a couple days ago, which showed basically nada. There’s been (relatively speaking) a big uptrend the past 36-48 hours, but not quite back to the level of potential that was shown 5-6 days ago.

    We’ll see what happens Friday – still early with that one but I’d say the upper level pattern favors a graze at best for SNE, likely to be some snow in the air but they’ll need to be some sizable adjustments for that to become a bigger event.

    From there, we move on to something I mentioned as a “caution” on what is overall a much more wintry pattern versus the past couple of years: a temporary Pacific takeover of the pattern, which should lead to a pretty significant but maybe not very long lasting warm-up for the last 10 days or so of this month…

    1. Thanks WxWatcher. So it’s NOT looking like January will come in above average for Boston after all?????

      What a bummer. And if February is mostly dry, it will come down to March to get us near the seasonal average and how likely is that?

      Frankly, I am NOT liking what I am seeing. I do hope things change.

      1. I had mentioned that the other day saying with these storms if they do not deliver much . Two weeks left for January

      2. I still think if I had to pick whether Boston ends up above or below normal for seasonal snow, I’d say above. There’ve definitely been some missed opportunities this month though. Friday will be the next one to watch – still too early to rule out that being a bigger storm, even though it’s not most likely at the moment. And even though the last 10 days of this month will likely be above normal for temperatures, it’s still the coldest time of the year, so we can’t rule out snow chances even in a “Pacific dominant” pattern.

        I’m also not sold on a dry February – these days, it’s pretty tough to get the sort of cold/dry pattern that consistently suppresses storms to the south. You may see some instances of storms that initially look like they’ll be big hits for the mid-Atlantic or even Southeast, but trend north with time. One tell will be if we finally get some more persistent ridging over the Western US, something that’s been hard to do not only this winter but the past couple of winters (hence one reason for the lack of snow in SNE). There’s indications of it starting by the end of this month, but it’s also not a given especially in an El Nino year…

      1. It’s almost splitting hairs, but I’d include Boston in the broad 2-5 range. I don’t think the city will see 5, but maybe either side of 3 for Logan.

        1. Im hoping for at least two inches for pembroke but that might be pushing it , gut is telling me salter storm down here with no plowing needed , its simple just a hunch with mix involved and projected temperatures climbing after 9am where its 32 & going up each hour & dropping back down to 32 at 6pm where the storm is winding down .

  35. Mark Vogan and other weather guys I’ve been following in Europe have had a pretty good handle on the overall pattern. Vogan in particular warned us 10 days ago that the Northeastern U.S. would not be getting nearly as cold as the plains or even states like Missouri and that snow chances here would mostly be few and far between. He and the Dutch mets I follow were also in agreement about the cold in the Northeast being relatively short-lived and that in fact this week might be it in terms of truly sustained cold this winter. This applies here as well as parts of Northwestern Europe (though not far northern areas of Europe that have had very long periods of cold since early December). As they point out this doesn’t mean no snow in February and March or even mini outbreaks of cold (say, 2 day periods).

    We’ll see if this verifies. I do have a gut feeling that we’re in for a 2011-2012 or 2022-2023 kind of winter (not the same pattern, but more or less the same results), which is sad.

    2. 2022-2023 was a completely different set-up.
      The slow start this year was due to El Nino (and other factors).

      2011-2012 .. not even close to how things are unfolding.

      I also did not indicate we’d be getting as cold as areas to the west during the pattern transition.

      There is nothing failing here. This is a SLOW pattern transition, taking place exactly as I described in my outlook on November 22.

      No need to change a thing.

    1. Nice. I’m out back a lot letting the dog get used to the back yard. I wish it was a little milder, I’m frozen, lol.

        1. Gotten comfortable which we are thrilled with !!

          Of course, with comfort, now she is playfully jumping all the time.

          So some training at hand as I can handle that a little, but not all the time.

          So I’ve been trying to take her out and run that energy 🙂

  39. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=sfct-imp&rh=2024011512&fh=30&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=icon&p=sfct-imp&rh=2024011512&fh=30&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=sfct-imp&rh=2024011512&fh=30&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    18z temp projections tomorrow from Euro, GFS and Icon

    I think the 32F line is just inland from Boston to Providence, if these models are correct for a few hrs tomorrow.

    Just east of that it’s 33-35F. With a lighter onshore flow, it shouldn’t be 37F-39F like it was last time.

    On the one hand, it is in the 20s today and will be tonight, so maybe the road temps will cool to that.

    I’d think with most roads treated due to the AM snowfall, that you’d have to get deeper into the sfc cold to have any frz rain take to the pavements. But to get to those temps, you probably get to where the entire column supports snow.

    So, if any zone gets some light frz rain/drizzle, I think side roads, walkways, trees, etc might get the glaze on top of a bit of snow. I think the main roads have a better chance to stay ok.

      1. Just east of that 32F line at 18z, I know the temps will drop late afternoon and I could see some dampness lasting on some pavement that will probably require a little more salt in the evening.

    1. I think it’s mainly the am commute for that concern Tom , would you agree & later Tuesday evening

      1. In our vicinity, yes, something to that effect I believe.

        A bit of snow on the roads early and then we’ll have to watch late afternoon/early evening.

        Does it stop precipitating or keep misting. If it does stop, do low dew points move in to dry the roads before we fall below 32f again.

  43. Thanks TK. 15 degrees here at Killington VT with a biting wind at times. 10” of new snow here this past weekend as d 29” new in the past seven days. Finally a deep base of snow on the ground and the snow banks are pretty large.

    Unfortunately my foot is still healing from a stress fracture so the dog and I are sitting in the car right now.

    My son took this picture from the top earlier. Beautiful day and a lot of rime at the higher elevations:

    https://imgur.com/a/3KEAptl

  45. Thank you TK!

    Was so hoping for more snow out of this one. And Friday isn’t looking very promising either. Sniff, sniff…

    1. This one never looked “big” to me. Always light to moderate at most.

      The late week system jury is still out. Energy for that one is far, far away still.

      There’s also another threat the guidance isn’t “seeing” yet before this month ends.

  46. We can’t declare Boston’s snow will end up below normal when we’re exactly half way through the month. It’s way, WAY too early to do that.

    And we know better than to look at models and say “well the models don’t have … etc etc etc” That’s now how weather forecasting works.

    By the end of tomorrow, Boston has the potential to be almost half way to their normal, in a so-so snow pattern so far, half way through the month.

    See what I’m getting at here?

    There is a tendency to talk in absolutes far too soon, and usually it comes back to burn the speaker. Trust me, I’ve had it bite me in the ass many times. 😉

  47. NWS did issue the winter weather advisory, and it’s the correct call. No need for anything more than that. The snowfall amounts are not to be high enough for a winter storm warning, but with a few to several inches of snow falling during the day tomorrow in much of the region, there’s a need. The freezing rain threat is minimal, as anywhere that mixes / changes should do so with surface temps slightly above freezing, temporarily. What may be an issue is in the evening the cold air comes back in and any wet surfaces freeze right back up. For areas that mix, this becomes a more difficult situation than if it was just 100% a snow event.

    Snow amounts: No changes. 2-4 in general, a few under 2 to the southeast, a few potentially over 4 to the northwest.

    Early forecasts of backing off the snow amount were going with guidance that had the storm too far offshore low track well to the southeast, east of the 40/70 benchmark. In reality, the low pressure area is likely to track INSIDE 40/70.

    It’s important to find out what reasons for things when verifying a forecast, and this goes for every source, including me. Not just channel 5, 7, or whatever. 🙂

  52. Winter Weather advisory

    URGENT – WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
    National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
    340 PM EST Mon Jan 15 2024

    CTZ002>004-MAZ005>007-012>016-RIZ001>004-006-160945-
    /O.NEW.KBOX.WW.Y.0003.240116T0000Z-240117T0000Z/
    Hartford CT-Tolland CT-Windham CT-Central Middlesex MA-
    Western Essex MA-Eastern Essex MA-Southern Worcester MA-
    Western Norfolk MA-Southeast Middlesex MA-Suffolk MA-
    Eastern Norfolk MA-Northwest Providence RI-
    Southeast Providence RI-Western Kent RI-Eastern Kent RI-
    Washington RI-
    Including the cities of Hartford, Windsor Locks, Union, Vernon,
    Putnam, Willimantic, Framingham, Lowell, Lawrence, Gloucester,
    Milford, Worcester, Foxborough, Norwood, Cambridge, Boston,
    Quincy, Foster, Smithfield, Providence, Coventry, West Greenwich,
    East Greenwich, Warwick, West Warwick, Narragansett, and Westerly
    340 PM EST Mon Jan 15 2024

    …WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO
    7 PM EST TUESDAY…

    * WHAT…Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations
    of 1 to 3 inches and ice accumulations of a light glaze.

    * WHERE…Portions of northern Connecticut, central, eastern and
    northeastern Massachusetts and northern and southern Rhode
    Island.

    * WHEN…From 7 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Tuesday.

    * IMPACTS…Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
    conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

    PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

    Slow down and use caution while traveling.

    As i said above, too low on amounts and too far West on Sleet/rain, imho. We’ll find out tomorrow. 🙂

  57. Don’t look now but this storm is continuing to uptrend… backed up by observations all the way down into the Southeast. Might be time to replace 2-5 with 4-7 for most. But also a definite signal for some mixing issues with the “second wave” tomorrow at least from I-95 south and east, so probably some lesser totals there. I still like around 3 for Boston but think some folks towards 495 belt are gonna be surprised that the “big storm” turned “no storm” is actually turning back into a very solid “medium storm”.

    2. I’ve been in touch with somebody from Knoxville and they are getting a few more inches than forecast.

      This type of system often does this.

      1. Thank you Tk and everyone that makes this blog very informative.

        Do you think the Needham/Wellesley area is in the 3-5 range? Thanks again

        1. I have them in 2-4 currently, but keep in mind this takes place over quite a few hours, so it won’t be snowing to beat the band. Those types of snowfalls always seem less than they are.

    3. I think N & W was always going to get more snow . I think the agreement is a very light snow falling but after noontime I think we go well above 32 to 36-37 & that will not be all snow . Rain & or mix needs strong consideration on this one , but it’s just my opinion & when I mention temps I get barked at . Tomorrow in my opinion sounds like one of those storms we get in March for Boston / south. I would love nothing more than to start up my machine down here tomorrow but I don’t think it will be needed , again I hope I’m wrong . I’d also guess & say Logan records barely 2 inches 1.5 all a guess / hunch

      1. Not really the case. Nothing was a lock. If we ended up with a low that travelled just outside 40/70 or even right over it, the highest snow amounts likely occur from Boston south.

        This low track, now that we’re much closer to the event, looks like it’ll be inside 40/70, which is over 100 miles further NW than the outside solution being shown just a couple days ago.

        Flatter waves like this are very very hard to pin down, especially when the guidance isn’t sure what energy to focus on. We’ve seen that struggle on pretty much every model the entire time. The differences were subtle in the outcome, but a subtle difference has a more-than-subtle impact on the outcome.

          1. They should have a high around 35, but after they get most of their accumulation. During the best period of snow, they range from 28 to 33. They then spike a couple degrees, but fall off again to the upper 20s by evening when another period of snow is possible. It looks like the moisture may hang back a little longer and still be around when the cold air is back in that area.

  59. I have just gotten off the phone with Caesar’s Palace in Vegas and they have established some over/unders for tomorrow.

    Sutton: 4.1 in
    Woburn: 4.7 in
    Marshfield: 2.1 in
    Natick: 4.3 in
    Logan: 2.9 in

    The person then said they got 2 unusual numbers for Jamaica Plain: 15.9 in and Pembroke: 0.0 in

    They since have been reset to ….

    JP: 3.6 in
    Pembroke: 2.4 in

    All over/under $0 dollar selections must be submitted prior to tonight’s 00z model runs.

          1. I’m still trying to figure out why over means the actual amount will be over the guess and not that the guess is over the actual number.

            I suspect you can all see why I don’t gamble.

  60. It’s important to note, that the influx of warmer air at mid levels that would cause a mix/change in some areas actually occurs after the mainly swath of precipitation has already fallen – it basically coincides with the arrival of a dry slot, and then the cold air comes back in behind it with convergence line still to move back across the area with its precipitation falling in the form of snow.

    NAM has the best handle on this, IMO.

      1. Worcester is never going to get above 32F tomorrow, so, if the morning ride in isn’t slow, the 2-3pm ride will be.

        Some hilly parts of that city.

        I do get what you mean AceMaster, there are some snowfalls we have to slowly push through.

        I do think Worcester is a bit of a unique situation. Also, throw in what Vicki found re: snow removal.

        They’ll make it up and they gave parents/guardians a lot of notice.

        1. I’m hearing from a long term SC member that all towns are short on drivers. They are apparently paying considerably more to attract drivers. I asked if he meant just in this area or if it’s in others.

          Ace sorry. I was replying to Philip and didn’t see your comment before I posted. But I agree with Tom.

    2. Too many moving parts to get into place in the morning. Safety of kids comes first. And, although not as important as safety, it’s what the parents asked for.

      I was also reading today that there is a shortage of plow drivers in worcster and other areas.

    2. The NAM has been increasing amounts for the past few runs now. It looks like 6+ down the I95 from what I can see.

    2. It’s really bad, and we didn’t get to see the full impact last winter with the lack of events in eastern MA, but they felt it further west where snow was actually above normal last season.

      Situation hasn’t changed, shortage continues. 🙁

    1. For the record, my 7 inches here is a huge guess and my numbers are most always based on a number that has meaning to me and absolutely no meteorological knowledge

      1. While from a forecasting standpoint I’d not say 7 … it’s entirely possible to get that much if things work out just so. Never know. 🙂

        1. Yeah I kind of had that same thought. Hmmmm

          I’ll have to lower my forecast. How’s 4.3. It adds to 7 🙂

  70. We have an inch and are under steady/border moderate snow and based on radar, going to add pretty good in the next hour. Powdery snow, even here, for now.

  72. Thanks Tk : I guess I’ll need to see how my guess went & down here I will be wrong . I had less than 2 at Logan & less down here . It is snowing very moderately right now in pembroke & it could be getting close to two inches . All snow but I think after 12 that might change .

Comments are closed.