Wednesday January 24 2024 Forecast (7:24AM)

86 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 24-28)

Not much change from yesterday’s write-up. This morning, most areas are coated in a fresh snowfall that ranges from a thick coating to a couple inches. During the day today, a frontal boundary struggles to get into the region, staying to the south enough that the cold air holds on for most of the day. Because spotty precipitation still has to move through the region, and it’s warming aloft, we have to watch for pockets of freezing rain showers mainly north of I-90 and especially the Route 2 Corridor northward. Some areas will also be cold enough for additional snow showers to occur, but I’m not expecting any additional accumulation. The frontal boundary does edge its way northward and ripple around the area for the upcoming two days through Friday while 2 more areas of low pressure move through the region. These will be mainly rain producers, focused on tonight and Thursday morning, and Thursday evening to Friday morning for steadiest rainfall. Neither of these will be prolific rain producers, so renewed flooding on rivers is not expected. Our active pattern continues beyond that, and after a break in the action Saturday, we get another storm system moving into and through the region Sunday and Sunday night, with a mix of precipitation trending to snowfall as colder air takes over from the north. Too soon to pinpoint snowfall potential by numbers, but many areas have a decent shot of picking up a bigger snowfall than the one we just had…

TODAY: Cloudy. Spotty snow/ice north, rain/drizzle south, tapering off later. Highs 32-39 southern NH / northern MA, 40-47 southern MA / RI / eastern CT. Wind NE-E to variable under 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Overcast. Rain likely except some freezing rain in pockets Merrimack Valley north and west evening. Temperatures generally steady 31-38 Merrimack Valley north and west, 38-45 elsewhere, but should rise slightly overnight. Wind NE under 10 MPH becoming variable.

THURSDAY: Cloudy. Rain early in the day. Highs 35-42 valley areas Route 2 northward, 42-49 elsewhere, warmest South Coast. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain likely. Temperatures steady 35-42 valley areas Route 2 northward, 42-49 elsewhere, warmest South Coast. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Cloudy. Rain ends in the morning. Temperatures remain steady 35-42 valley areas Route 2 northward, 42-49 elsewhere, warmest South Coast. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Breaking clouds. Areas of fog. Lows 30-37. Watch for patches of black ice where temperatures fall to 30-32. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 40-47. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy evening. Cloudy overnight. Lows 25-32. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Overcast. Rain/mix/snow trending to mostly snow. Highs 32-39. Highs NE 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 29 – FEBRUARY 2)

Dry, seasonably colder January 29-31. Storm potential to start February.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 3-7)

Fair early period, another storm potential mid to late period. Temperatures trend colder.

86 thoughts on “Wednesday January 24 2024 Forecast (7:24AM)”

  1. Thanks TK !

    I do find it interesting how the GFS seems to mix in some of that much colder air towards the back third to quarter of the weekend system, while it appears the EURO keeps the cold and the moisture fairly separate all the way to the end.

    1. The cold will advance or stay in place more than the models give it credit for in most cases for quite a while in the coming pattern.

  13. Thank you, TK.

    As you pointed out, there are slick spots, especially sidewalks.

    Got to 32.6F here, according to my thermometer, but my guess is that it may be even colder than that at the surface.

    One thing I noticed while watching the forecasts is that Caribou, Maine, will be doing very well in the snow department this week. Even as we head towards the mid to upper 40s and rain, it will be snowing up there, pretty much every day this week.

        1. Indeed. Something to watch that is for sure.
          May not make it to Boston, but I could see it sneaking
          into SE NH and NE MA.

  15. Complex evolution possible later this weekend.

    The southern stream system and cold in SE Canada can stay separated and still, the column can cool enough for rain to snow in some part of the area.

    Or, the GFS version which saves some moisture for coastal and SE areas after some of the very cold air has been entrained into New England.

    I don’t feel very confident right now on how this plays out.

  16. Thanks TK.

    It was a beautiful scene this AM as everything was caked with wet snow. We got about 1.5″ and the schools had a two hour delay. Roads were slick last night but just wet by the time I drove into work this AM. As is often the case, it was a different scene as I drove towards Hartford and down in elevation. Little new snow in the valley and not much on the trees.

    2. It was a nice scene here as well. We got perhaps an inch.
      Around midnight it was coming down pretty good, but I think
      it was spotty off and on stuff all night and didn’t accumulate all
      that much. Plus it was 33 on;y touching 32 once.

  17. For Sunday, Euro wants to start it as mix/sleet

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2024012400&fh=114&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_ne&p=prateptype_cat_ecmwf-imp&m=ecmwf_full

    Then snow in some areas

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=prateptype_cat_ecmwf-imp&rh=2024012400&fh=120&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    24 hour 10:1 snow

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=sn10_024h-imp&rh=2024012400&fh=132&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    Total 10:1 snow

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=sn10_acc-imp&rh=2024012400&fh=138&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

  23. The problem with hoping some of that cold air gets in for the weekend system is …….

    If its going to get in here, then thats probably because the northern jet buckles a bit in eastern Canada to drive it in here on NW to SE flow.

    But, then, that’s going to suppress the low and its moisture.

    I think the best scenario is for wet snow and hoping we thread the needle. Hope the low goes south and the column can cool enough for wet snow. I think if the southeast Canada air becomes too much of a player, we’re going to lose a lot of moisture to our south.

      1. Not if the low gets compressed south by the cold air pressing in from north as Tom explained above. Then it would be all snow and focused more on CT/RI/SE MA.

        1. It could mark agree . It still is a ways away as if would be more Sunday night / Monday morning I believe .

      2. 12z euro gives Pembroke 10″. Not saying that is going to happen but it is within the range of possibilities if things work out right and the 12z model run projections from today were to materialize.

  24. Thanks TK.

    I’d be wary of big snow totals for the Sunday storm for the reasons Tom mentioned above. It’s a big time “thread the needle”. While most of the 12z runs did successfully thread that needle, it would take only a slight change in either direction to end up with more significant mixing issues, or colder but with a lack of moisture…

  29. Thanks Mark, you saved me the trouble.

    Euro looks a bit suppressed on both of those systems.
    I’d like them to be a bit more North, please. 🙂

    We shall see.

  30. Well, I saw the EURO.

    Its lower pressure on the weekend system has support of the ICON and UkMet.

    The UkMet has the lower pressure (980 mbs), but it doesn’t appear to me to rush the cold air in to the system like the EURO does.

    I’m kind of sticking to my thread the needle idea. I don’t think this particular setup allows for both. Either marginal cold air witth moisture or colder air, but marginal leftover moisture.

    2. This is exactly what I’m referring too when I say don’t underestimate surface cold.

      When I was a fledgling met (and SAK can also relate a similar story since we worked for the same people), one of the first things we learned about winter forecasting in this area was “sneaky surface cold air”. It doesn’t matter a rotten bean most of the time what the upper pattern is doing in terms of these details.

      You’d see a forecast by somebody with no experience in this be off by 5, 10, 15, sometimes even 20 degrees, based on the underestimation of “sneaky surface cold air”. 🙂 This situation is not nearly that dramatic, but it’s an example. And in this case, it’s temporary. The temp will likely go back up tonight. But 1 or 2 hours of below freezing temps with light rain or drizzle falling makes a big difference compared to if the temp was 33 or 34. These subtle differences can have big impacts when, for example, somebody that has to walk outside is depending on a forecast to tell them whether or not they’ll be walking on a wet metal stairway or a sheet of ice.

  32. We are still about 48 hours away from being able to start detailing the Sunday threat.

    As WxW mentioned above there is not a lot of margin for error so to speak.

    If I had to hedge, I’d hedge colder with the greatest chance of substantial snow in the southern half of the region.

    Plenty of time to fine tune.

    1. Meteorological speaking and for that matter biblically speaking
      it is easier for a camel to go through the eye of a needle than
      the low to thread that needle!

      But, hey, maybe we’ll just pull it off. Time will tell.

  34. So a chance for NY to make a move up the snowfall standings???
    NY currently with least amount of snow for the I-95 cities.

    1. Too far from zero time to rely on anything that detailed. The other guidance also looked like that at times, but the pattern is not one that would continue to bring that low further north. If anything, we may need to worry about it being TOO squashed.

  37. I take it the rain totals tonight and tomorrow night are still expected to be under an inch? Also any new thoughts on Sunday? Certainly a dreary couple of days. Thanks.

  39. Very Glaswegian weather this week.

    As they say in Glasgow, today’s rain is tomorrow’s whisky.

    And there’s no such thing as bad weather just wrong clothing.

    1. Oh my. Me thinks that scientist needs to learn to brew a perfecf cup of tea so that his is no longer bitter.

  42. I’m hoping JimmyB is home safely and feeling better. Last I heard you were fighting some sort of virus

    1. I made it back Vicki – thanks for checking – I ended up getting a root canal – turns out that’s where the infection was – I was trying to ignore the tooth pain so I could do the race but in the end the tooth pain won. Great day to get a root canal – gray and rainy. Thanks for the tips on the spots – hope to go back one day

      1. Good news you are back safely and had a good time and a great race. Not good news about a root canal. So sorry but happy the pain has been resolved. And you are welcome. My daughter said it was the next best thing to being there

  43. More rain than I anticipated, gauge has .95. It was pouring around 10:30.

    Euro has a bomb for Monday, GFS weaker but storm after storm. Pattern is ripe.

  45. Vicki to answer your question. The heavy precipitation idea is based on the quick spike in temps and the scientific notion that if you make a change that quick, you have to see a reaction. There are preliminary studies that have indicated the forcing for storms in the lower atmosphere may actually be reduced, and if that is true, it can lend some potential truth to the idea that when you do get the “events” they can be even more intense.

    This, in combination with the warming that’s already gone on can potentially combine to produce things we haven’t observe, or at least haven’t seen in some areas for a very long time. It’s one of the wildcards that I spoke of regarding the effect of that volcano. We’re going to be learning for a long time. We don’t know nearly everything yet regarding it since its effects may persist for a few and potentially up to as many as 8 years according to some scientists.

    As for links, I think you’ve probably seen most of the same ones I have, but when I can I’ll go back through the available ones and make a list to post.

    I’ll get a bit more time to do that after we’re done with the big un-decorating project. Most of my free time this week is spent doing that so we can get mom’s house set back up. 🙂

    1. Excellent comment. Thank you. In case you have not noticed HMHH fascinates me.

      I did know that global warming increases storm intensity. But was misreading your comment that flooding and higher rain amounts were a direct result of the water forced into the stratosphere and not the slight increase to warming coupled with the potential further decay of the ozone layer believed to be the result of HTHH.

      Two of the four folks who did get back to me said they did not believe flooding would be a direct result of HTHH because the water went to the stratosphere. I didn’t understand that so did some digging. I was not aware that the stratosphere is dry and contains very little water. And the few stratospheric clouds are near the poles in winter. Sorry. I digress.

      All four folks did stress what the links I’m finding also stressed. They were clear that the driving force is our already existing warming and not HTHH. They also mentioned HTHH would be yer another climate denier excuse

      Enjoy undecorating. I’m working on the Same. And thanks again

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