Thursday March 28 2024 Forecast (7:20AM)

114 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 28 – APRIL 1)

No big changes to the overall ideas in the short-term forecast for today’s update, but a few tweaks to make. Staying with the idea of a soaking rain today and an exit of the rain, possibly mixed with or briefly turning to wet snow in some areas, during tomorrow. We replace wet weather with dry weather for the start of the weekend along with a gusty breeze, and we indeed have to watch a disturbance swing by the region but the timing is a little faster – Saturday night for a light precipitation threat, maybe into early Sunday. The balance of Sunday looks dry as that system moves away and we resume our northwesterly air flow. I believe that high pressure will nose in for a fair weather beginning to April on Monday.

TODAY: Overcast. Rain and areas of fog. Highs 45-52, coolest coast. Wind N-NE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts coastal areas.

TONIGHT: Overcast. Rain likely, may mix with snow in higher elevations of southwestern NH and northwestern MA prior to dawn. Lows 35-42. Wind NE-N 10-20 MPH.

FRIDAY: Cloudy start with a chance of rain favoring eastern areas, may be mixed with or even turn to wet snow in some areas before ending. Breaking clouds from west to east later. Highs 43-50. Wind N-NW increasing to 10-20 MPH with higher gusts later in the day.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 30-37. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 48-55. Wind NW 15-25 MPH, higher gusts, possibly to 40 MPH or even higher favoring the higher elevation locations.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clouding up. Some spotty light rain/sleet/snow possible overnight. Lows 35-42. Wind NW 10-20 MPH becoming W to variable up to 10 MPH overnight.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy including the chance of light snow/mix/rain early. Partly sunny later morning on. Highs 50-57. Wind variable up to 10 MPH becoming W-NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 31-38. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.,

MONDAY: Sunny. Highs 51-58. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 2-6)

This looks like an unsettled weather period with a couple low pressure areas moving over or just south of the region bring rain/mix/snow to the region at times while high pressure sits in eastern Canada. April 2-3 look most likely for steadiest precipitation.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 7-11)

High pressure builds in with fair weather and cool to seasonable temperatures first half of period, which if holds true would be good news for April 8 solar eclipse viewing. Unsettled weather returns later in the period.

114 thoughts on “Thursday March 28 2024 Forecast (7:20AM)”

  2. Good morning and thank you TK

    Well the Nams woke up and Removed ALL SNOW from the model runs. No surprise there.

    So far, NOT impressed with the rain. just not. We shall see later. It can dry up as far as I am cobcerned.

  4. Tk do you think I should call off tomorrow’s two jobs in pembroke 8-4 ( could wait until 9) or just continue watching today . I need to make a decision by dinner time tonight . Thank you .

  8. Thank you, TK.

    Good afternoon, Joshua, and good morning to others!

    Looks a lot like London here.

  10. 12Z HRRR has the last system coming up go negative tilt
    at 500 mb

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=500wh&rh=2024032812&fh=25&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

    850mb temps

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=850th&rh=2024032812&fh=25&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    Shows some spotty snow

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=ref1km_ptype&rh=2024032812&fh=25&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    Here we go again….

    It is COLD enough aloft to support snow. Now it is just a question of how much cooling can be applied to the boundary layer. And that is very much dependent on the precipitation intensity. Could get interesting…..

    total 12Z run Kuchera Snow

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2024032812&fh=33&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

  11. NAMS show at 9Z Firday AM, 850 temps well below freezing
    925 mb temps below freezing Almost to the coast.
    Surface temps 37-38 degrees.

    This is CLOSE oh so CLOSE. would not take much to end
    up with a full-fledged SNOW storm. Of course of those boundary layer temps don’t drop a few more degrees, all we would see
    is a few flakes mixed in and predominately RAIN.

    It shall be interesting either way. 🙂

      1. Interesting. IN that snow zone it shows same surface temp
        as areas to the North with no snow, 37

        INTENSITY must be the issue.

  13. With the NAM, the 500 mb flow does not quite go negative tilt, keeping the storm a bit more off shore and likely preventing
    a snow storm here.

  14. I will give until April 15 until I go into full victory lap mode on my no snow call 3″ or more in Holden I made back in February. My confidence is as high now as it was over a month ago. I don’t think there’s been more than an inch in aggregate since then.

  22. Thanks TK.

    Still very intrigued by the potential evolution of the storm early next week with a strong -NAO blocking pattern in place. Strong storm approaches from the west, hits the block and a secondary low forms off the coast. That low then bombs out and basically stalls/retrogrades due to the block. Potential to dump a LOT of snow somewhere NW of it’s center.

    The GFS and Canadian both show this. The Canadian solution is especially interesting as this whole evolution occurs further south.

    12z Canadian Kuchera snow with significant accumulations in northern MA and points north:

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2024032812&fh=240&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_ne&p=snku_acc-imp&m=gdps

    1. If the Canadian is correct, the only person doing victory laps will be me as I frolic through 18” of snow in Holden town center…. 🙂

  23. Quite the wind gusts here in London as a powerful system moves through. It’s been a rainy and windy day. But the next week looks favorable with almost no rain, tranquil and temps well into the 50s.

  25. I know I need to ignore and move on but this one had me shaking my head

    CNN talking head to infrastructure “expert”. “Why do these structures keep falling down.”

    1. The “opening day” line had me bursting out laughing, and being thankful I didn’t sip my coffee before reading it. 🙂

  31. The Yankees are trailing the Astros 0-3 after the first half-inning of the season.

    The season is over for the Yankees! 🙂

      1. Two times in four innings the Yankees had the bases loaded and did not score. FRUSTRATING!

  32. Prediction: Boston is going to accumulate more snow in April than they do in March. #LockItIn

  33. hey TK!!!
    Nws agrees with you!

    from today’s afternoon forecast discussion

    “Tuesday and Beyond…

    The middle of next week looks quite unsettled with the potential for not one but two low pressure systems to impact southern New England. The first comes Tuesday and Wednesday as low pressure moves northeast into SNE. With little to no time between the first and second system, impacts will persist through the day Wednesday into much of the day Thursday as a second low strengthens off the coast of Maine Wednesday night. At present, temperatures look seasonably
    cold, with highs in the 30s to near 40F, which could support mixed precipitation or even snow north of the Route 2 corridor through the period, acknowledging the forecast will rely heavily on the track of the lows. In any case, with marginal temperatures, 10:1 snow maps will far overestimate the potential for accumulating snow; with the 12Z Canadian`s 3 feet across north-central MA being completely out of the question. With that said, ensemble probabilities and positive snow depth change forecasts do paint a picture of accumulating snow as far south as the MA/RI and MA/CT border over the 48 hour period. Only time will tell if Boston sees more accumulating snow in the month of April than March, oof!”

    i saw this and had to laugh at it

    Thanks as always!! DOH!

  34. 1.10″

    Drove past the Taunton River within the last hour and it’s getting concerningly high.

  38. Eric mentioned on air that he wouldn’t be surprised if later this spring, we go “in the other direction”…DROUGHT!?!

    TK – Do you agree with Eric on that statement?

    1. Nothing would really surprise me, but I haven’t had much of a chance to look beyond April. I’ll be doing that soon. 🙂

    2. I watched and I think he said after next weeks storminess we may start to trend out of this recent rainy pattern and maybe a drier pattern ahead but that remains to be seen.

  40. 1.30″

    Yankees rally for three in the fifth, one in the six and one in the seventh to beat Houston, 5-4.

    Denver beat UMass in 2OT in NCAA hockey. BU is routing RIT.

    Great time of year for sports fans! NCAA women’s and men’s basketball, men’s hockey, pro and college baseball, NBA and NHL among others. I put new batteries in the “clickha”!

  41. What a slow line of rain – from New Brunswick, Canada to North Carolina – one of the rare days where it’s not the day to be a coastal resident

  42. With the offense the Yankees have they are never out of a game. Down 4-0 and win 5-4. Juan Soto with a big defensive play in the 9th throwing the runner out at the plate.

    1. I think since they beat the Astros, I can actually be happy for the evil empire for 1 day 🙂 🙂 🙂

  43. Interesting re next week, Mark. We do have the blizzard 40 years ago today and then April fools 1997 (I think). Wouldn’t it be somethin’

  45. Current heavy over us and perhaps one more heavy one behind it and then, maybe lighter rain til morning ??

  48. The following summary is from a colleague of mine regarding an event on this date, March 28 in 1984…

    “On this date in 1984, the worst tornado outbreak on record for the Carolinas occurred. 57 fatalities and 1284 injuries. Of note, the 7 F4 tornadoes were all produced by the same supercell, a record for most violent tornadoes from a single storm. One of the tornadoes was 2.5 miles wide at one point, among the widest tornadoes on record.

    The intense low pressure that produced this outbreak the day before pulled very hot, dry air from the Mexico plateau, resulting in a 108 F reading at Cotulla TX, setting all-time the record high temp for the month of March for the U.S. Brownsville TX reading of 106 F not only set its monthly record for March, but also its all-time hottest temp on record!

    The following day, one of the nastiest March blizzards for southern New England occurred. Winds were exceptional. A wind gust of 108 mph was record at the Blue Hill Observatory, its highest gust since Hurricane Donna in 1960 and still has not been matched or exceeded since this time. Mashed potato snow with the high winds lead to an enormous amount tree damage and power outages, and thundersnow was widespread. The low pressure bottomed out at 963 millibars E of the Delmarva, almost as low reading as the Blizzard of 1993.”

    Satellite image 7 am EST 3/29/1984:
    https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/gibbs/image/GOE-5/IR/1984-03-29-12

    1. Thanks TK. I remember it as if it were yesterday. I calked mac and suggested….strongly….he leave work. All I could hear was the loud crack of branches breaking and power lines arcing. Our son was 15 days old. Mac waited to leave. Took him six or better hours from Watertown. We lost power for four and a half days. I might have been sad when power returned

  52. 0z GFS has the storm evolution a bit further north dumping the real heavy snow over VT, NH, and ME but still some accumulation in MA:

    Kuchera Snow:

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2024032900&fh=180&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    Of course, snowmaps this time of year are usually overdone but bottom line….there is a strong signal for a long duration major snowstorm somewhere in the Northeast in the Tues-Thurs timeframe next week. Will keep watching….

  54. I can’t take much more of this weather. Approaching 2.50” in the bucket here for this event and still coming down.

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