Saturday March 30 2024 Forecast (8:36AM)

85 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 30 – APRIL 3)

This weekend will feature generally dry weather across southeastern New England. There will be one minor interruption that some won’t even notice. First, we will be in a gusty northwesterly air flow today behind yesterday’s storm as it has moved northeastward into Atlantic Canada and intensified. While it’ll be a precipitation-free day we will see shreds of fractocumulus clouds become a bit more bulky with the aid of the sun’s heating of the ground and the subsequent rising of moisture on the surface from yesterday’s wet weather into the lower atmosphere where it’ll cool and fuel the fair-weather clouds. These will fade as the sun sinks later in the day, while at the same time we’ll see an advance of high to mid level clouds ahead of a small low pressure area that will pass just south of the region early Sunday. While dry air will limit what this system can do, a couple areas of rain and snow can occur during the overnight hours – rain more likely toward the South Coast with some wet snow more likely to the north, but this is going to be an insignificant event and exits the region by sunrise. There may be some leftover cloudiness from this system first thing Sunday morning (Easter Sunday for those celebrating). These will exit and we’ll have a period of bright sun, but much like today, sun’s heating will then trigger fair weather clouds that might fill much of the sky in the afternoon. Still though, not a bad day – less breezy and a little milder than today will be – as we say goodbye to March. April arrives Monday and we’ll immediately turn our attention to an upcoming storm threat. First, an initial wave of low pressure will track south of our region later Monday, bringing some clouds. While an area of light rain may skirt the South Coast, I do think the dry air will be substantial enough over the region to limit this. A second, more potent storm system will approach the region from the west, bringing the threat of rain/mix/snow to the region late Tuesday through Wednesday. It’s still too early to really iron out the details / impacts of this system, but those details will come into focus over the next couple of days.

TODAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 48-55. Wind NW 15-25 MPH, higher gusts, possibly to 40 MPH or even higher favoring the higher elevation locations.

TONIGHT: Clouding up. Some spotty light rain/sleet/snow possible overnight. Lows 35-42. Wind NW 10-20 MPH becoming W to variable up to 10 MPH overnight.

SUNDAY: Early clouds, then mostly sunny mid through late morning. Partly sunny afternoon. Highs 52-59. Wind variable up to 10 MPH becoming W-NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 31-38. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.,

MONDAY: Clouds increase. Slight chance of late-day rain South Coast. Highs 50-57. Wind W to variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breeze possible.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 33-40. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Cloudy. Snow/mix/rain arrives late day or nighttime. Highs 38-45. Wind N-NE 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT & WEDNESDAY: Overcast. Rain/mix/snow likely. Temperatures start 38-45 then slowly fall. Wind NE-E 10-20 MPH, gusty.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 4-8)

Early period storm impacts the region with rain/mix/snow likely. Drying out mid to late period as high pressure builds in. Favorable outlook at this time for solar eclipse viewing April 8. Temperatures below normal early period, trending milder thereafter.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 9-13)

High pressure brings fair weather first part of period, then unsettled weather threat returns mid to late period. Temperatures near to above normal.

85 thoughts on “Saturday March 30 2024 Forecast (8:36AM)”

  1. Good morning and thank you TK

    And Mark, I was referring to the 6Z GFS and also the 0Z Euro which may show snow accumulation, but look at the surface.
    That is primarily MIX and not snow.

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=prateptype_cat_ecmwf-imp&rh=2024033000&fh=114&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    In short, there are signs that system comes a bit too far North
    for snow in SNE. We shall see. Waiting on the 12Z runs. 🙂

    Canadian, well, it’s the Canadian. 🙂

  3. Thanks TK.

    Jimmy, yesterday you forgot to mention 2015.

    Boston received its biggest seasonal snowfall ever at 110.6 inches. I can only imagine what the amounts were like in interior areas like yours.

  6. Thanks TK
    Philip where I am I never got into the big snowfall totals with the 2015 snow blitz so that is why I didn’t include it The snowiest winter in my life was 95-96

    1. JJ, did the December 10?, 1992 hit your area? I believe some western MA areas had 3-4 ft. We had over two in Framingham. Other than 1978 it was the first time in my lifetime many towns kept schools closed for 2-3 days. We were 3

      1. Vicki I forgot that storm until you mentioned it. That storm brought coastal flooding to the CT shoreline and heavy snow in the hills.

    2. So sorry about that Jimmy. I had assumed ALL of SNE received record breaking snows.

      Speaking of 95-96, that is Boston’s 2nd largest seasonal snowfall at 107.6 inches.

  11. In my opinion, the big change on the 00z gfs and somewhat the euro compared to yesterday, was the evolution of the phasing and how long it takes the system to become vertically stacked.

    The 500 mb look on today’s 00z gfs is initially a little out of alignment and takes until the low is past us to get lined up or become vertically stacked.

    The 500 mb energy is lagging behind the sfc feature.

    Something to watch in coming runs.

    1. I’m game for today’s version of the gfs because it might offer chances at less QPF potential, a coastal flood threat, but sorry, less snow, though still some.

      2. I honestly think I’m absolutely ok with less snow but still some. It’s going to be wet and heavy and many trees are budding. I sure don’t want a repeat of either march 1984 or April 1997 for our foliage.

  12. Thanks TK.

    Brutal out here on the softball fields this morning. 40s and the wind is relentless.

    We will see what the 12z runs have to offer. Whatever it is, it will very likely not be the final solution.

    1. Good luck Mark !

      Drenched, frozen and wind chilled watching games for sure, but as you know, totally worth it ! 🙂

  13. GDPS and UkMet at 00z had the phasing and the system becoming vertically stacked more quickly. Lower pressures and slow movement of low south of us.

  16. Slight lagging of when the energy captures the low and vertically stacks continues on 12z GFS. Gets its act together just north of us off the Maine coast.

              1. Climatology is definitely on your side 🙂

                If the GDPS solution with its phasing in time ever happens, it could snow to sea level and maybe accumulate at night.

                If it’s the GFS, then, you’re right, it’s north and especially with elevation.

                I think we won’t know which way until Tuesday ish.

              2. You might be in on the fun of watching it for a while too. 😉 I know you won’t believe that based on my words, but if Wankum says it, look out! 😉

  18. TOM, S CA discussion re: snow

    Since this a fairly cold system there will be significant snow
    accumulations above 6000 feet with 1-3 feet accumulations likely
    between 6000 and 7500 ft and possible higher amounts above 7500
    ft. Very windy conditions will with 50 to 60 gusts will continue
    above 5000 ft through this morning. These winds combined with the
    heavy snow could produce short term blizzard conditions. Like the
    rain the most snow will fall through noon. Winter storm warnings
    are in effect for most of the mtns through Sunday evening. Please
    refer to the product LAXWSWLOX for all of the information about
    the winter weather. Snow levels should remain above the Grapevine
    but there is a 10-20 percent chc of snow.

    1. And this

      …WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM SATURDAY TO
      11 PM PDT SUNDAY…

      * WHAT…Heavy snow expected. Snow accumulations of 12 to 24
      inches above 6000 feet (except locally up to 30 inches in the
      eastern San Gabriels), 6-14 inches between 5000 and 6000 feet,
      and 2 to 6 inches between 4500 and 5000 feet. Damaging winds
      gusting as high as 65 mph. Brief blizzard conditions will be
      possible at higher elevations late tonight into early Saturday
      morning due to the combination of strong winds and heavy snow
      reducing visibilities to near zero at times in blowing and
      drifting snow.

  19. 12z Euro looks nice, 974mb east of Cape Cod at 2pm Thursday. If anything, looks south and east of the 0z run.

    1. Eastern MA would rip heavy snow for several hours in that setup with the storm bombing offshore to ESE. 10:1 snow maps are a foot or more for most of eastern MA. Keeping in mind with mixing and ratios this time of year, that is overdone.

      1. The euro is the solution btwn the gdps and the gfs.

        It definitely phases earlier than the gfs and a bit later than the gfs.

        Nice to have those 3 scenarios to see what each one will provide for sensible weather.

          1. Yes, but looking at the GFS ensemble mean, it would support an earlier phase/further southeast solution than what the operational run is showing.

            Canadian ensembles look more or less in line with the operational.

          1. An awful lot of MIX is included in those totals, especially near the coast. Color me NOT impressed just yet.
            Still time. I’m still leaning towards a rain/mix scenario.

            We shall see.

  23. My level of concern for significant snow for most of SNE is up a tad over 24 hours ago.

    GFS ensembles (op run is too inside). GDPS. ECMWF. Not even close to locking it in, but my goodness this is the best shot we’ve had since January, literally.

    2. I know that we have been here before far too many times this season. But you say that my hope level goes up.

      1. Well, I must admit, that’s a nice looking ensemble mean.
        We shall see. I remain skeptical. 🙂

    1. But he’s a wimp and won’t say anything about the possibility
      of a true Nor’easter Snow Storm. 🙂
      Last night all he said was that there “could” be some flakes mixed in.

      1. Let’s see if he’s a wimp or he tells it like it is . I seem to remember the big storm we were having after the superbowl & he said rain & you all laughed , well guess what it was heavy rain . He’s a good meteorologist cut him some slack .

          1. I like him a lot 🙂
            Very nice guy. He’s good friends with my friend’s husband. He’s been at my work. He’s a cool dude!

            1. That’s good Tk. He lives in Scituate & races motorcycles. But in my opinion he’s not respected here . I heard he is the nicest guy & is also quite handy around the house .

    1. So, IF it does snow and snow a bunch, there will have to be a concern about tree damage!! And strong wind to it and YIKES!

        1. Exactly. Freezing is not on my mind but snow weight with buds giving just that much more area to cling to does. Not a huge difference but still. Worst case, I’ll be out with a soft broom knocking snow off branches and small shrubs

          1. Good plan. Hopefully you won’t have to put it into action, or at least if you do it will go well!

            1. Thank you. I have fortunately has success in the past. But I was younger and more sure footed then

  26. How’d did softball go today, Mark?
    Did we win?

    I hope it warmed up as the day went on!

  27. Coventry had double header scrimmages against Newington and Windsor and we won both, thanks for asking!

    The girls were freezing this morning. The wind was just brutal. Second game was slightly better, only because it was on a different field that was more shielded from the wind. It is SO much nicer out now…sunny and 55 and the wind has died down considerably.

  28. Question to our skiers. I watched a movie last night where skiers were waxing skis. I remember wayyyy back waxing and k owing what color wax to use based on snow conditions. But with my newer skis…..which was also pretty far back…..I no longer had to wax.

    Long way to ask if you still wax skis.

    1. Yes I typically drop my skis off at the ski shop early each season to get a tune up which includes a waxing and sharpening of the edges. Probably should do it more often but then again I don’t need to go any faster in my old age 🙂

      My cross country skis (which are now like 30 years old) are waxless but I don’t recommend them. The snow sticks to them badly if the snow is heavy and wet.

      1. Thanks Mark. That makes sense. We’d always leave our skis at either Carroll reed or Jack Frost before each season. Maybe that’s what the show intended.

        The length of the skis still shocks me compared to what they used to be.

  29. 00z icon is phased a bit earlier than its 12z run, as it’s running 5-6 mb lower in pressure and the low is getting captured near Boston as opposed to southern Maine.

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