I’m gathering as much information as possible for my article. I don’t write breaking news pieces (I couldn’t do it, frankly, it’s just so far removed from the way I operate). Rather I write reflective pieces.
My impression thus far is that the degree of uncertainty among staff at the various agencies is off the charts. In and of itself that is not a good thing. As John Maynard Keynes taught us 100 years ago, a high degree of uncertainty in life, in the economy, in the stock market, anywhere, is problematic. By the way, Keynes is my all -time favorite economist. Richard Nixon once said “we’re all Keynesians now” in referencing macroeconomic policies that Keynes touted to beat or stave off recession.
I worked at Data General in the late 1980s as the company was collapsing. The distraction created by the weekly layoffs and constant resignations was overpowering. It was also almost comical at times. One manager, showing off his tact and people-skills (!), joked about slithering through the cubicle area with a shark fin on his head showing above the cube walls. We got some reliable information from the cafeteria workers who overheard conversations among the upper managers and passed it on to us lowly workers.
And this was nothing compared to the chaos being created in this situation.
Predicting is not an easy thing to do in economics, but we still do it. Sometimes I’m successful. Other times, not so much. But regarding Trump II’s impacts on the economy, it’s invariably been fairly clear to me and the vast majority of economists. Slash-and-burn the federal government, including the NOAA/NWS, is not conducive to economic growth. Nor are tariffs. Both policies decelerate the economy.
This is what I published in early January, before Trump became president. [I think I may have underestimated the negative impact of the economic policies]
“If Trump makes good on his promises, my economic outlook for 2025 includes reduced growth, modestly rising unemployment and elevated inflation. As tariffs take hold, inflation will continue to tick upward towards 4% on an annual basis by year’s end. A possibly more problematic feature could be the impact tariffs have on the U.S. industries that are reliant on imported raw materials and semi-finished products. I foresee a stalling of manufacturing and an increase in unemployment, edging up to 5.5% or maybe even 6% by the end of the year. The economy won’t technically be in recession, but its growth may diminish to a sluggish 1% by the 4th quarter.
Deportation of undocumented workers could lead to rising nominal wages. In itself higher wages are good. But they can also exacerbate the problem of inflation, as companies pass on higher labor costs onto consumers.
Austerity measures, including diminished government investment, may take a toll on the economy, along with stubbornly high interest rates. I expect the average 30-year mortgage rate to rise to over 7% by year’s end. And what’s perhaps more detrimental to the economy’s prospects is the high degree of uncertainty, domestically and abroad.”
Thank you, Joshua. And ugh
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Your no-hype southeastern New England weather blog!
More cuts may be planned for noaa. These cuts are against the law and the oath of office to protect and defend the constitution
https://www.forbes.com/sites/saradorn/2025/03/09/heres-where-trumps-government-layoffs-are-targeted-as-noaa-reportedly-set-to-cut-20-of-staff/
https://www.npr.org/2025/03/04/nx-s1-5318039/fired-federal-employees-opm-memo
Thanks for posting, Vicki.
I’m gathering as much information as possible for my article. I don’t write breaking news pieces (I couldn’t do it, frankly, it’s just so far removed from the way I operate). Rather I write reflective pieces.
My impression thus far is that the degree of uncertainty among staff at the various agencies is off the charts. In and of itself that is not a good thing. As John Maynard Keynes taught us 100 years ago, a high degree of uncertainty in life, in the economy, in the stock market, anywhere, is problematic. By the way, Keynes is my all -time favorite economist. Richard Nixon once said “we’re all Keynesians now” in referencing macroeconomic policies that Keynes touted to beat or stave off recession.
I worked at Data General in the late 1980s as the company was collapsing. The distraction created by the weekly layoffs and constant resignations was overpowering. It was also almost comical at times. One manager, showing off his tact and people-skills (!), joked about slithering through the cubicle area with a shark fin on his head showing above the cube walls. We got some reliable information from the cafeteria workers who overheard conversations among the upper managers and passed it on to us lowly workers.
And this was nothing compared to the chaos being created in this situation.
Predicting is not an easy thing to do in economics, but we still do it. Sometimes I’m successful. Other times, not so much. But regarding Trump II’s impacts on the economy, it’s invariably been fairly clear to me and the vast majority of economists. Slash-and-burn the federal government, including the NOAA/NWS, is not conducive to economic growth. Nor are tariffs. Both policies decelerate the economy.
This is what I published in early January, before Trump became president. [I think I may have underestimated the negative impact of the economic policies]
“If Trump makes good on his promises, my economic outlook for 2025 includes reduced growth, modestly rising unemployment and elevated inflation. As tariffs take hold, inflation will continue to tick upward towards 4% on an annual basis by year’s end. A possibly more problematic feature could be the impact tariffs have on the U.S. industries that are reliant on imported raw materials and semi-finished products. I foresee a stalling of manufacturing and an increase in unemployment, edging up to 5.5% or maybe even 6% by the end of the year. The economy won’t technically be in recession, but its growth may diminish to a sluggish 1% by the 4th quarter.
Deportation of undocumented workers could lead to rising nominal wages. In itself higher wages are good. But they can also exacerbate the problem of inflation, as companies pass on higher labor costs onto consumers.
Austerity measures, including diminished government investment, may take a toll on the economy, along with stubbornly high interest rates. I expect the average 30-year mortgage rate to rise to over 7% by year’s end. And what’s perhaps more detrimental to the economy’s prospects is the high degree of uncertainty, domestically and abroad.”
Thank you, Joshua. And ugh