Friday August 29 2025 Forecast (7:03AM)

101 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 29 – SEPTEMBER 2)

A cold front will move into and across the region slowly today through this evening. After a few showers being around this morning, up to a few rounds of more widespread showers will occur this afternoon and evening. While lower in coverage, a few thunderstorms can occur, with brief strong wind gusts and small hail a possibility with any of the stronger cells. This would be isolated with most areas not seeing storms of this magnitude. Labor Day Weekend is going to feature fair, comfortable weather, but and upper level trough moving through will trigger diurnal cloud development daily – a little less with each passing day – but a very nice weekend overall with high temps in the 70s and low humidity levels, and not too much wind. High pressure remains in control as an area of low pressure, as suspected previously, passes well offshore to our southeast during Tuesday.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. A few showers around early into mid morning, then showers likely with a chance of thunderstorms afternoon. Highs 71-78. Wind S to SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers, possibly a thunderstorm during the evening. Patchy fog. Lows 58-65. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 70-77. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy low elevation fog. Lows 52-59. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 71-78. Wind variable to E up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy low elevation fog. Lows 51-58. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

MONDAY (LABOR DAY): Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 72-79. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 52-59. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 73-80. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 3-7)

High pressure remains in control through the middle of next week with a modest warm-up until a cold front brings a shower chance about September 5 followed by a drier, cooler first weekend of September.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 8-12)

Mainly dry weather is favored until mid to late period when there’s a shower chance with a passing frontal system. Temperatures variable but not too far from normal.

101 thoughts on “Friday August 29 2025 Forecast (7:03AM)”

    1. Yes he did indeed and I saw it.

      I think different people interpret the definition of graupel differently.

      What he was showing was HAIL (soft as it may be). IMHO
      To me, graupel is more like snow pellets and it is white.
      Just indicates some melting aloft.

      To me, graupel belongs associated with SNOW and not HAIL.
      Hail is hail is hail.

      That’s just I and my opinion and how I look at it.

      1. Interesting. When I saw graupel, I immediately thought snow and then chuckled cause Arod was here

  5. Nasty night here in Warrnambool Vic 50 to 60mph sustained winds with wind gusts up to 80 through this entire evening and into the overnight. Lights been flickering on and off.

    1. PS Blizzard conditions are expected for the high country which have experienced one of the best snow seasons in over two decades

    2. Nice JPD. 5 for me too.

      After just under 1500 games with an average of 4 guesses, my 5 average is going up. I tend to think that is some indication that the words are indeed getting more difficult or maybe nyt tactics are getting more clever.

  8. Thanks Tk . On the boat heading back to cape , I have no interest in returning to the Islsnd , the vineyard is much better

        1. Yup.

          Nantucket and the Vineyard offer very different experiences.

          I like them both, though I haven’t been to Nantucket in a long time.

          1. My son spent a summer between college years working on Nantucket and absolutely loved the experience.

  12. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=refcmp&rh=2025082912&fh=10&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    The HRRR is firing cells in the same general area all day.

    Precipitable water valves projected around 1-1.5 inches in that zone

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=pwat&rh=2025082912&fh=10&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    Might be an opportunity for some localized flash flooding in areas that get of training of showers/storms.

    Can see these sneaky little pinks on total QPF

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=qpf_acc-imp&rh=2025082912&fh=12&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    I can hear some very distant thunder.

  14. Last couple frames on the Norton NWS radar, the cell approaching Weymouth, Hingham area showing purples. Perhaps hail …..

  15. Is there just a bit more rain SE of Boston today than expected.
    Didn’t get much here, but we certainly had a shower earlier this morning.

  16. Thanks, TK…

    0.21″ in a matter of minutes about an hour ago with a rumble of thunder. Getting dark again.

  17. Graupel and hail are formed differently.

    They are not the same.

    What would occur today would not be graupel.

  18. Looking at obs, there’s a due S wind in eastern, southeastern MA and the cape and islands, while it’s more southwest further inland.

    Perhaps that is the cold front or a convergence area, either way, I think the 2 different wind directions can provide some additional lift.

    And the dps are a bit higher in SE Mass than inland, so a little bit of a dp boundary too.

        1. Been a little in the north ‘burbs, but I went “mostly cloudy” today for a reason. 🙂

        2. Sun here between clouds. Lots of white clouds with blue sky between. Now. At 11:49.

          72/62 low was 52

  19. Getting quite a few Lightning strike notifications on my phone, even though most of them are quite a distance away.

    These apps only report cloud to ground strikes? correct?
    thanks

  20. Thank you TK!

    We’ve had some rumbles of thunder and it has been raining quite steady for a little bit now. Makes me want to take a nap!

  23. Thanks, TK.

    Been absent for a bit, recovering from my lengthy stay overseas (jet lag combined with a lot of catch-up work, mostly in the form of project application deadlines).

  27. https://www.goes.noaa.gov/sector_band.php?sat=G18&sector=np&band=GEOCOLOR&length=24

    https://www.goes.noaa.gov/sector_band.php?sat=G18&sector=np&band=Sandwich&length=24

    https://www.accuweather.com/en/us/alaska/weather-radar

    I continue to think things are off across the hemisphere.

    Nothing like a massive 500 mb ridge over far northwestern Canada, centered just barely south of the latitude where the arctic circle starts.

    And on its west side, an atmospheric river.

    Now, I expect atmospheric rivers on the west coast in winter and in the northwest US or into southern British Columbia more months of the year, but this one goes south to north into central and eastern AK, all the way to the Arctic Ocean.

    Credit to accuweather for the Alaska radar showing just how much precip the eastern half of the state is receiving.

    Meanwhile, we’re under heights that belong to early October and it’s not humid to the gulf coast.

    Things are all messed up.

    1. Everything traces back to the Pacific, and not just the developing La Nina. Off the coast of northern Japan, there are some thermal vents on the ocean floor. In early summer, there was a flurry of seismic activity there, not just the big quake that triggered the tsunami. When that activity developed, tons of heat was released into the ocean. SST anomalies off the northern coast of Japan and Russia were off the charts, upwards of +10C above normal. That warm water is slowly spreading across the North Pacific, only slowly dissipating as it does so. When you get a ribbon of warm water like that in the North Pacific with cooler water to the south (check out the anomalies off of Southern California), you get a tendency for a big ridge over Alaska/NW Canada, with a trough to the south. That is exactly what we are seeing. Now here’s the problem. If this continues into the winter, and nearly all the models say it will, combined with a La Nina, and the pattern is set up for a very cold winter across the eastern half of the nation. Whether it’s snowy or not will depend on where the trough eventually sets up across the East, but right now, I’d expect the winter to be below to perhaps well below normal temperature-wise around here.

      For reference:
      SST Anomalies over the past 90 days: https://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/data_current/5km/v3.1_op/animation/gif/ssta_animation_90day_large.gif

      Watch the area near northern Japan, especially in the Sea of Japan go from near to below normal to well above normal in the span of just a few weeks.

        1. Hopefully that trough sets up just right for ABOVE normal snow for a change. 🙂 ❄️

      2. I know we’ve chatted a little about this previously, but awesome information. Thank you!

  28. (Auto)immune systems are complicated. I was allergic to something outdoors in England. Not a terrible allergy, but enough to notice. It disappeared upon my return. I am wondering what it was. Of course, vegetation is different. We have different climates after all.

  29. Patriots released Peppers. That’s a head-scratcher.

    Then again, I thought trading Devers was a bad idea. I was wrong.

    So, I won’t comment on the Patriots’ move.

  30. We had one of those thunderous explosions just a bit ago Tom. I jumped and thunder rarely startles me. This one did.

      1. We have missed a ton of the storm this summer. This one is barely kissing our area. But a few strikes have been close and the thunder is fun. Looks as if more are headed up from the south. Maybe you will get one!!

  31. Getting grazed by the Southern edge of a passing cell(s).
    More to the SW of here. Don’t see how we miss getting hit here sooner or later this afternoon.

    1. Disorganized shelf basically. It exists on the border of the storm’s downdraft / rain area.

          1. The true scud would be mostly or completely detached from the storm cloud. They can connect when part of an updraft – hence often being mistaken for something more sinister.

            But this image to me looks like it’s an accessory cloud created by outflow. Not all of them take on the classic shelf appearance.

  34. Thanks TK!

    Started a new job on 8/4 so have been busy and the dog keep us even busier. Hope everyone is having a great summer!

  35. Joshua… Regarding the allergy thing.

    I’ve suffered allergies lifetime, but I use the word “suffered” loosely now because my allergies are not nearly as severe as they once where.

    My allergy to animals has all but vanished. I have ZERO effects from cats that used to make my eyes puff up and itch like crazy. Now I can bury my face in their coats and have no reaction at all.

    As far as vegetation, my early season (tree pollen), mid season (grass pollen), and late season (weed pollen) allergies have always varied but have definitely trended FAR less potent with time.

    I also have a bit of a mold spore allergy that’s not too bad.

    One interesting thing though, back in 1992 when I went out to Oklahoma in May to storm chase, something out there triggered may allergies like they hadn’t been for a while. A few of the days I was absolutely miserable with itchy/watery eyes and some other sinus issues. As time went by, it eased up. I was out there from May 9 to 22 1992.

    1. What is your secret to cat allergy cure? Or did it just naturally go away? I have them pretty bad.

      1. It just went away …

        I think to be honest the “secret” was just more and more exposure to them.

      2. My grandson is struggling with this.

        I had cat allergy when young. It was my only allergy. It went away. Not due to anything but time. In its place I have asthma and seasonal allergies and mold.

  37. The cell going by my area at about 3:00 p.m. – core passing to my south – tossed a couple anvil bolts back up overhead. Great thunder rumbles. Lightning detection indicated that a +CG may have been part of one of those to my west, but audibly it did not sound like that. I can pick those out very easily, and I was outside at the time.

  38. We had some storms earlier down here in Warwick. Were I am we lost power for about 30 minutes.

  39. That line in central MA into CT at this time is the cold front. Not in a huge hurry but will be moving eastward slow & steady through evening.

    Many dry days to follow this. But remember, the forecasts from some outlets of just “sunny” for each day over LDW are too optimistic. We’ll be dealing with diurnal cloud development.

  40. This light be the slowest lines of storms I have seen but very impressive cloud formation over Buzzards Bay – looks tropical

  43. It was a good one. But why do I feel that will be the last good thunderstorm on the South Coast until next spring…

  44. Lots of tree and building damage here on the southwest coast of Victoria Au, We had near hurricane force winds for a time sustained on the coast, went down a bit in terms of sustained winds once you got inland.

    In terms of the Patriots, I am very surprised they let go of Peppers, I was thinking they would have Dugger and Peppers kind of compete for the box Safety position and then do a trade of some kind before the trade deadline and some people come back on IR. In terms of the Atlantic, I think activity picks up second half of September could be a mix of CAG and MDR

    Its going to be interesting to see what the climate models for September come out with. Signals are for good chance for cold, question is will there be moisture.

  45. NWS yesterday (for today)…
    Discussion: Talked about diurnal clouds.
    Forecast: “Mostly sunny”.

    NWS today (for today)…
    Discussion: Highlights a mostly sunny day with cloud all staying north of the MA/NH-VT border (no, I don’t agree at ALL).
    Forecast: “Increasing clouds”.

    No worries… I will make sure my discussion and forecast match. 😉

    1. Sadly, we knew this was bound to be the case with the layoffs. But NWS may not be around much longer anyway. Project 2025’s recommendation is to privatize weather services and reduce climate science.

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