Sunday August 31 2025 Forecast (7:37AM)

67 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 31 – SEPTEMBER 4)

The holiday weekend rolls on and fair weather will be the theme. The more substantial cloud area from the upper low moved across our region last night and has cleared out / dissipated. Today as we finish up August, while high pressure has influence on our weather, an upper low hangs around and this will trigger the development of diurnal cumulus clouds again, more numerous to the north and west, less so to the south and east, so the sun will share the sky with fair weather clouds as we move through the day. These will develop again Monday to a lesser extend, but offshore low pressure will toss its high clouds shield, at least in part, across our sky from the south to north during the day, so that can filter / limit the sun a bit as we welcome September. That system otherwise will remain offshore early in the week as high pressure builds in and we undergo a modest warm-up which lasts through the middle of the week. While Tuesday and Wednesday feature plenty of sun, Thursday’s sun may become filtered to limited due to an increase in a variety of clouds from the south ahead of the next trough.

TODAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 70-77. Wind N to variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes developing.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy low elevation fog. Lows 51-58. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

MONDAY (LABOR DAY): A sun / cloud mix. Highs 72-79. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog in low elevation areas. Lows 52-59. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 73-80. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy fog in low elevation areas. Lows 53-60. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 74-81. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear to partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 55-62. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 75-82. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 5-9)

September 5 is humid, mild, and showery with a southerly air flow, a disturbance moving through from the south and a front approaching from the west. The September 6-7 weekend transitions back to cooler / drier, but it may be a slow process at first with a cold front still moving through the region at the start of the weekend with higher humidity and a shower / thunderstorm chance. Don’t expect a return to sunny conditions as the aforementioned front on September 6 and a secondary trough on September 7 add some clouds to the mix – refinement of this forecast to come as we get closer to it. Fair, cool, dry weather later in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 10-14)

Medium range odds favor the best shot at showery weather mid period, but otherwise a mainly dry pattern with temperatures near to below normal.

67 thoughts on “Sunday August 31 2025 Forecast (7:37AM)”

  1. Good morning and thank you TK.

    60 now after overnight low of 55 here.

    Can’t believe tomorrow is September 1st!!!!

  2. The CFS nailed the cooler August here. That model has done a decent job for a while now. It has some pretty solid cool anomalies at times in September and the one that it sets up in Canada, aimed for the Lower 48 is rather impressive looking on the most recent run of that long range model. And regarding precipitation, the leaning of that guidance is drier than the long term average. If that is correct, expect drought to continue to expand as we head into Autumn.

    1. I got it in 3 today and very nearly had it in 2. Got 4 letters with 1st guess, but none were in the correct order.

        1. Thanks all. I think I am back on track now. I don’t know what kind of funk/slump I was in???? Opening word(s) make all the difference and even the best opening word yields a blank from time to time.

        1. Thank you SClarke.

          I almost quit, then changed starting word(s).
          Seems to have made a difference, else I am in a different
          frame of mind. Who knows. But I’ll take better. 🙂

    1. Relatively. More like “normal active”. Most of the NHEM has been a snoozer in 2025. ACE is way below average.

      Recent ACE was about 139.
      Average for the same time: 223.
      Not even close.

      1. Found from July 3

        1992] had the most storms ever on record for the Eastern Pacific hurricane season,” DaSilva said. “There were 27 named storms that year and 16 hurricanes. Sixteen hurricanes is a tie with several years for the most hurricanes on record.”

        In addition, there were 10 major hurricanes in 1992. So far this year, there have been two. A major hurricane is a storm with Category 3 windspeeds of 111 mph or higher.

      2. Agree. Below average. Still the only hotspot I see.

        The Atlantic seems below average but the height of the season will be upon us soon.

        1. We’re in it now. September 10 is the center of the peak. But basically August 20 to September 30 is “the peak” period of time.

  12. The hurricane season has been lagging generally over the past several years favoring later in the season. Though I don’t think we see above average I think we likely see near average in terms of storm numbers but I have this weird feeling of if a storm does develop, it will be strong. I worry about the ITCZ moving south, allowing waves to move further west, and also an increase in lower and upper atmosphere differeces which could increase convection along with the eventual change to the CAG part of the season. It too could be dead but I think we start seeing periods of activity, signs starting to show up for around mid month.

    1. 3 out of the last 6 years have had 12 or more storms by the end of August, so we’ve had our share of early activity as well. 50/50 basically.

      It looked like it was going to get active by the 2nd week of September, but that time frame keeps getting pushed back a little at a time.

      I think the storm number may approach but fall just shy of average by the time we wrap up the season. Time will tell on that, however.

      1. Its going very well, just went through my confirmation presentation/exam this past week and passed with no correction needed ( highest level pass someone can get) Now onto field season prep. Hoping to get the majority of my fieldwork done this season in October/November as I will be back in Massachusetts for second half of December through January 20th. I am hoping for snow as last season I wasn’t able to go skiing and though the ski areas here in Victoria are experiencing one of their best seasons, I can’t ski at the moment as my ankle is still not ready for it after that near complete tear of my atfl

        1. Wow, Matt. That is terrific. Congratulations

          As Mac would say, my buttons are bursting.

          Hoping for skiing for you also.

  13. It’s downright chilly in the shade.

    If very modified polar and arctic air is visiting the mid latitudes in August, I think getting some modified tropical air in January or February is a fair trade.

    1. I was around for that one, but can’t remember too much about it.
      I was living in Norwood and don’t remember any really effects from it.

    2. That was the one where our Hum rental cottage was flooding. Because my dad had headed to Boston for work because “Carol was in NC so there was time for him to work and return for us,” a friend of his business associate who lived behind the south river had to rescue us.

    3. Carol was the last major hurricane to make landfall in the Northeast. When another comes calling, and it will, the region will not be prepared and it will make Katrina look mild in comparison.

      1. As I remembered Carol ….she is the one who fostered by fascination with weather….I had the same chilling thought

  16. That storm led to the creation of the hurricane barrier in New Bedford. Can anyone find what the local weather conditions were the week leading up to storm? What’s interesting to me was that the storm strengthened as it approached Long Island, had that happened today so many would be screaming Global warming

    1. I think what many who don’t believe our climate is changing due to our absolute pollution is every corner is that all that we are seeing has absolutely happened before. Now, however, while events are recurring, they are doing so more frequently

      Harvey Leonard has a great video on this. I’ll see if I can dig it up.

    2. Carol’s strengthening to a CAT 3 prior to landfall was likely due to its compact structure. And some of its fury here was due to that compact structure starting to expand rapidly as extratropical transition was very rapid.

    3. Correct no one individual event can be linked to climate change, but changes in frequency and changes in patterns all do. Its like the people saying we can control where a single storm will hit. We can’t. What we do impact is the overall ocean temperatures that can lead to storms wanting to travel those routes more. We can not control the weather but we can certainly control the climate to a point, they been doing it in Africa with tree circles in the Savannah/deserts since before Roman times I will also add that as someone who looks at how the environments work from a holistic approach, I find it insane that people do not understand our climate is changing, and yes, I call out the meteorologists as well who think it’s not real. To many things going on in the environment that points to climate change other than just the atmospheric stuff.

      1. Exceptional comment. Most of the Mets here understand the science. Pete, Eric and JR are quite outspoken. There is one…possibly two … who does not. Both on same network. It’s the network I won’t watch.

    1. Red Sox have lost 5 straight games at home for the first time this season. Going for #6?

  21. Just a reminder…

    The internet, particularly FB, YouTube, (and probably TikTok but I don’t use it so I am not sure, can only assume), are polluted with really bad “winter forecasts” by people having no business forecasting tomorrow’s weather let alone the in 4 to 7 months.

    Ignore them, avoid sharing them, but don’t shy away from informing people how unreliable and irresponsible they are.

    Here, we will do it right, as usual, and look at all the parameters. While not shying away talking about what certain things could mean, with appropriate caveats, the actual winter forecast will be issued in November, as is my standard practice.

    1. Don’t forget the Old Farmers Almanac as well.

      Their winter forecasts are beyond “bad”. 😉

  22. Thank you TK!

    Let’s keep the showers out of the Friday forecast please. Kickoff at 7 PM! Wishing all of the footballers a great season!

    2. With a little luck the moisture that day will exit earlier.

      It may take until sometime Saturday however for the cold front to push the more humid air mass outta here.

        1. Not sure. It’s day 7 (as of today’s update). So I can’t nail down the timing on that this far in advance.

          There are hints that it’s slow-moving at first, which could delay its passage until there is strong enough low pressure north of our latitude to pull it more quickly offshore. But those are hints, not “strong indications”. Based on past experience with the particular set-up I think we’ll have late this week, I’d lean toward a little slower frontal passage (Saturday instead of Friday). As for what time range on Saturday, check back with me around Wednesday, when it’s 3 days away. 🙂

          Keep in mind, one of the models I am looking at, just a few days ago, took a pretty potent-looking low right up the coast and into southern New England with a soaker of a rainstorm for Tuesday September 2nd. I doubted it then. The forecast for Tuesday September 2 for Boston area: Lots of sun, highs in the 70s, maybe near 80 inland.

  23. Boston should come in at about a -4.5F for today, and they were sitting at -2.0F for the month through yesterday, so this will take them right into that range of -2.0F to -2.5F for the month that I told you was expected to be the final value for departure. We’ll see what it is specifically when today is officially over and the temps are recorded and the average calculated.

    Bottom line: Cool August. Near normal Meteorological Summer.

    My prediction for meteorological summer was: Near normal. (Yes it can be found on blog comments back in the spring.)

    It has been, however, even drier than I expected, this summer. I was not expecting a wet one, but I was also expecting to have a little more rainfall than we saw in the region.

    1. Erin could have done a lot of good if she had been 150-200 miles further west and shared some of her moisture, with no wind damage, of course. Oh well.

    1. It sure did. Get ready for the social media frenzy! Until the 06z run finishes in a few minutes anyway…

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