Thursday November 13 2025 Forecast (6:47AM)

57 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 13-17)

Chilly northwest to north air flow today and tomorrow with colder air aloft triggering daily clouds, more today than tomorrow, including the chance of a sprinkle of rain, mix, or snow each day, higher chance today. High pressure brings fair, tranquil weather Saturday. Quickly in comes the next small low pressure area via the Great Lakes at night, with overnight and early Sunday morning rain due to milder air aloft, but may begin quickly enough for some mixed snow/rain in southern NH, but it ends quickly Sunday morning as low pressure exits. Like several other recent departing systems, this one too will rapidly intensify upon departing, leading to windy weather and a chill-down later Sunday through Monday, with the return of dry weather other than once again the chance of a passing brief rain or snow shower.

TODAY: Partly sunny. A brief passing rain/mix/snow shower possible. Highs Highs 45-52. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 28-35. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. A slight chance of a passing sprinkle/mix/flurry. Highs 44-51. Wind NW to N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 26-33. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 43-50. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, diminishing.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clouding up. A period of rain – some mix possible southern NH briefly. Lows 35-42 early, then rising slightly. Wind variable under 10 MPH becoming S up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Cloudy very early with rain ending, then a sun/cloud mix and a slight chance of a passing rain shower. Highs 43-50. Wind W to NW increasing to 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

SUNDAY NIGHT / MONDAY: Variably cloudy. A passing light rain/snow shower possible. Lows 32-39. Highs 46-53. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 18-22)

Blocking pattern stays in place but shifts orientation eastward slightly during this period. We’ll watch for the next low pressure system mid period heading for the Great Lakes with a possibility to redevelop closer to New England. It remains to be seen how much impact this system will have on our region.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 23-27)

No changes to this part of the outlook with expected main storm track into Great Lakes and a bit milder pattern for our region. But any storms do need to be watched for redevelopment further south and east depending on the degree of blocking in place. This is the period leading up to and including Thanksgiving (November 27). Most likely day for storm impact is November 24, but when you see the word “storm” don’t think necessarily “big event” – just something to keep an eye on this far out and monitor trends.

57 thoughts on “Thursday November 13 2025 Forecast (6:47AM)”

  2. Good morning and thank you TK.

    40 overnight, 44 now.

    Ocean temp: 52

    Wordle: 3

    Looking forward to tonight’s Patriots game. Hopefully another victory.

    3. Also looking forward to the game because I have an absolutely nutty day.

      Regular school, extra help for a test tomorrow, an appointment and then parent teacher conferences, 6-8 pm tonight.

  6. Thanks TK !

    Wordle: 2

    My first word got 1 letter in the correct spot and 3 others in the wrong spot.

  7. Thank you TK!

    Wordle: 3 I am honored to join JPD in the dining car. But not gonna lie, Tom driving does scare me.

  8. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.gefs.sprd2.png

    This chart, which I haven’t peeked at in a while, has the opposite projection I was expecting.

    Chatter continues on twitter about a possible stratospheric warming event occurring around Thanksgiving with a disruption of the polar vortex to follow some days after.

    The visual of the disruption showed higher pressure in Alaska and the Yukon and low pressure (500 mb heights) just about everywhere else. Well below normal 500 mb heights across the US.

    So ….. I guess I was expecting to see a negative AO forecast at month’s end in November and its the opposite, looks like a positive AO, which tends to mean a stronger polar vortex. So, I am somewhat confused. 🙂

    1. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.gefs.fcst.png

      And the blocking at higher latitudes easing as the NAO returns to neutral

      https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/pna.gefs.sprd2.png

      And the PNA headed to neutral which might mean more west coast storminess and a pacific airmass heading into the west coast ….

      I don’t know, these 3 teleconnections don’t necessarily scream all the cold and snow potential I’m reading about on facebook and on twitter. I am NOT convinced of this for later in the month.

    2. I’m more than somewhat confused. What does that mean for us. And isn’t Hungas moisture in the stratosphere?

      1. I’ve always thought a positive AO (arctic oscillation) means stronger lower pressure at high latitudes, a stronger polar vortex, which keeps the polar and arctic air more locked up to the north of the US.

        So, when I see all the lines in the graph for AO above that center line, it means a positive AO, which should mean the majority of polar/arctic air should be north of the US

  9. Speaking of being confused. Is Gronk actually playing or is he just signed on as a pat so he can retire as one ?

  10. Thanks TK.

    Tom, my understanding has always been that after these sudden stratospheric warming events, the response of the polar vortex disruption often takes weeks to occur. The teleconnection forecasts you posted above don’t go out far enough to demonstrate any impact from the SSW event.

    Judah talks about the SSW event and PV disruption to follow in this week’s blog. A SSW event in November this early in the season is exceedingly rare.

    https://published.aer.com/aoblog/aoblog.html

  12. Thanks, TK!

    It was four years ago today that three tornadoes touched down in Rhode Island and Connecticut. It was the first time in NWS-recorded history that tornadoes were reported in those two states in November. Bristol County MA had a Tornado Warning in advance of those two storms. There was a lot of vivid lightning as the storms passed through Norton and Taunton that evening.

    Channel 5’s report on the severe weather from that day:
    https://www.wcvb.com/article/tornado-warning-massachusetts-new-england-november-13-2021/38243339

  13. More from Judah:

    Judah Cohen
    @judah47
    1h

    Despite the fact that the ECMWF is now all in predicting the earliest sudden stratospheric warming in the satellite era, the best line from Monday’s blog is looking more & more “First I don’t rule out the possibility this will all evolve into a stretched #PolarVortex in the end.”

    https://x.com/judah47/status/1989069552429523170?s=20

  14. More on the upcoming SSW event. Keeping in mind it’s impact on the Northeast US at this stage is uncertain…

    Jeff Berardelli
    @WeatherProf
    8h

    Get ready to rock and roll!
    A Sudden Stratospheric Warming is on the way. In about two weeks, temperatures 12 miles up over Canada and Greenland are forecast to spike by 50°F or more. That’s a shockwave in the stratosphere — a rapid disruption of the polar vortex high above the Arctic. When the vortex gets rattled like this, it can send ripples downward through the atmosphere, reshaping the jet stream and eventually stirring up turbulent, high-impact weather patterns at the surface all around the planet. Not every SSW delivers extreme cold or storms, but events this strong often tip the atmosphere into a more chaotic setup in the weeks that follow.

    https://x.com/WeatherProf/status/1988967688304013653?s=20

    1. Jeff Berardelli
      @WeatherProf
      1h

      To be clear: Disruption of the Stratospheric polar vortex is a natural process, it happens almost every or every few winters. Nothing nefarious is causing these. Scientists are investigating how climate change / Arctic Amplification etc… factors in and IF it is making them more common, but these warming events happen in a normal climate.

  15. Ridiculous start to the winter season at Jay Peak and the resort isn’t even officially open yet. Not too often you can ski in the tress in deep powder this early. They are up to 2 feet of snow in the last 7 days and 3 feet on the season.

    Jay Peak Resort
    @jaypeakresort
    6h

    Winter settled in fast. Almost 10 inches on Tuesday, another 6-8 since yesterday, likely more up high—and it just keeps coming.

    So we’re leaning in. November 22–23 will open the season, open to everyone.

    Keep an eye on our Snow Report.
    http://jaypeakresort.com/snowreport

    https://x.com/jaypeakresort/status/1989000860341338463?s=20

  16. I am waiting for that first happy hour 18z GFS run showing a widespread 12-24 inch snowstorm so I could have a good laugh.
    An article by Meteorologist Dan Amarante in CT insider today showing 45-60 inches of snow for my area as well as Mark’s area.
    He is also thinking it will be a front loaded winter. I will be happy with 30-40 inches after the past couple of winter’s.

    2. I hope he is right. 45-60” is about average to a bit above average for my area in the hills of Tolland County CT. Not necessarily a snow blitz but will seem like one after the last few winters….if it verifies.

  19. The Patriots continue to allow the opposing team on opening drives to march down the field for TD’s, like clockwork.

    2. And it hasn’t mattered much. 🙂

      They are the first team to 9 wins in the NFL this season.

      The only other team that can get their 9th win in Week 11: The Denver Broncos.

      The Colts have 8 wins, but are on their bye week. So after week 11, the Pats will either be the best team (record-wise) or tied for the best team in the NFL with Denver.

      While I agree you don’t want to be allowing opening drive scores for your opponents, but they’ve been overcoming it. This is something we haven’t seen this team do for a while. They’re doing it this season, pretty consistently. That’s a positive thing. 😉

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