Monday December 1 2025 Forecast (7:04AM)

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 1-5)

December 1 marks the start of “Meteorological Winter” which is the months of December through February, but this is a kind of “forcing it to fit into a neat little box” idea, which I kind of like, but mostly don’t like. The fact is this: It’s still autumn. And the upcoming weather pattern discussed here in this section, including the upcoming storm threat, is to be treated as such – a late autumn one, with factors typical of this time of year impacting and shaping the sensible weather we get. It starts today with a chilly, gusty breeze and dry weather behind a cold front that went by our area last evening, as its parent low in eastern Canada creates a tighter pressure gradient between itself and high pressure drifting into the Northeast via the Ohio Valley. Weather systems in this current pattern are quick-movers, however, and we’re already looking at another low pressure trough sending us unsettled weather for Tuesday. As discussed yesterday, this system is actually two systems. The first one is a trough swinging through the Ohio Valley toward the Northeast. The second is a wave of low pressure from the Gulf, moving across the Southeast, with a low pressure area taking shape off the North Carolina Coast. These 2 systems will not fully merge until beyond our region, and the result is a minor to moderate impact system with ocean-warmed boundary layer air preventing significant snow in the coastal plain while the better chance of enough snow to need shovels and plows occurs inland, especially west and northwest of Boston, favoring higher elevations. It’s also a short-duration precipitation event of about 12 hours (+/- a couple hours), from mid morning to mid evening. The high pressure area that approaches us today will move right on through and not be anchored to the north as you’d see in a pattern that featured more blocking. As the southern low passes by, pretty far offshore, it will be intensifying, and right at the end of the storm it will help to draw in some colder air which can drag a rain/snow line closer to the coast, but this will be toward the end of the system and not allow much time for accumulating snow there once it is cold enough to adhere to surfaces. The colder air coming in behind the storm will be a concern for causing icy surfaces that are untreated. In areas that saw mostly rain, this will be the main concern in terms of slippery surfaces. Wednesday’s weather will be dry as high pressure builds in, and this will help sublimate / dry off those surfaces. Thursday, look for a strong cold front to cross the region later in the day from northwest to southeast with a good chance of some rain and snow shower / squall activity. I still need to pin down timing and intensity / precipitation-type for the activity associated with the front in the next few updates. This front will usher in the coldest air mass we’ve seen so far this season for the end of the week.

TODAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 38-45. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Clouding up. Lows 22-29. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Overcast. Precipitation arrives prior to midday north and west of Boston, around midday Boston southward – snow to potential mix I-495 to I-90 north and west, snow/mix to rain I-95 belt, mainly rain but can start as brief mix Boston south. Highs 33-40 except 40-47 Cape Cod / Islands. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Precipitation ending followed by overnight clearing. Expected snow totals generally a trace to 1 inch I-95 belt with closest to 1 inch most likely inland, 1 to 3 inches interior southern NH and I-495 / I-90 region west from I-495 westward, 3 to 6 inches higher elevations Worcester County to interior southern NH, with a slight chance of isolated 6+ amounts at highest elevations. Lows 22-30. Wind shifting to NW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 32-39. Wind NW 15-25 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 22-29. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of rain and snow showers. Highs 37-44. Wind SW 10-20 MPH shifting to NW.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 8-15. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill can approach 0.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 23-30. Wind NW 5-15 MPH. Wind chill often below 20.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 6-10)

Minor storm system comes through with a precipitation threat early December 6, then watching another potential rain/mix/snow threat later December 7 from what also looks like a fairly minor storm system. Generally fair thereafter. Temperatures recover to near normal on the weekend then fall below normal early next week.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 11-15)

Colder pattern may transition to a little milder heading toward mid month as upper air pattern shifts somewhat. A couple of precipitation threat windows exist in this time frame but no early indications of major storms.

155 thoughts on “Monday December 1 2025 Forecast (7:04AM)”

  1. Thanks TK
    Happy Meteorological Winter!
    Some places it will look like winter tomorrow. My hope to get a little more snow down by way is this tweet from Meteorologist Bob Maxon
    Changes in the forecast are expected today as data has trended a bit colder overnight.

        1. Not at all. Kuchera is another that tries to zero in on what
          the true ratio is. Not perfect, but superior to 10:1.

          The Kuchera ratio is a meteorological method to estimate snow-to-liquid ratios by using atmospheric temperature data, developed by US Air Force meteorologist Evan Kuchera. It aims to be more accurate than the traditional 10:1 ratio by adjusting for colder temperatures, which often result in a higher ratio of snow to water, leading to potentially much higher snowfall forecasts than the standard method. How it works Uses temperature: The method calculates the snow-to-liquid ratio based on the temperature at the $500$mb level, which can vary significantly.Adjusts the standard ratio: The standard \(10:1\) ratio (10 inches of snow equals 1 inch of liquid) is often inaccurate. The Kuchera method accounts for the fact that colder air can produce lighter, fluffier snow with a higher ratio, meaning \(10\) inches of liquid could produce far more than \(10\) inches of snow.Improves accuracy: It is intended to provide a better estimate of snowfall accumulation than a one-size-fits-all \(10:1\) rule, especially in colder scenarios.Limitations: While an improvement, it is still an imperfect model and can be overdone, particularly for long-range forecasts. True snow ratios depend on more complex physics than can be captured by a single ratio method. 

            1. Pretty straight forward.

              With High ratio snow ie really fluffy dry snow
              1 inch of rain could yield 15,16 even 20 inches of snow or more.

              With low ratio snow, really heavy wet stuff, 1 inch could yield only 5 or 6 inches of snow.

              Kuchera tries to determine what that ratio would be and adjusts the snow amounts accordingly.

              it is certainly NOT perfect, but beats the crap out of using 10:1 which is almost always useless!!!!

  2. Good morning and thank you TK.

    35 here.

    Ocean: 49. (Cape Cod Bay ) Boston Bouy water temp not available.

    Re: tomorrow
    Euro still an outier, but even that has trended towards the others. Waiting on 6z Euro, then the 12z runs.

    Not impressed with the cold leading up to tomorrow’s event. Just not.

    Not expecting much here, but perhaps can see some snow in the air at the beginning and end. We shall see if there is a mix here. I Suspect it will go to plain Ole rain here for most of the event.

    Wordle: 5. Should have had it in 3 or 4, but nope.

      1. Nice, I guess I am the caboose once again today. Well, it least I caught the train. 🙂 🙂 As I said, I “should” have had it in 3 or 4.
        Just didn’t see it.

  3. Water temperature at the Block Island buoy is 53.6 degrees. I’m sure we might get a few decent snow events this winter. I will enjoy this one going into the storm drains.
    My guess is for snow totals this winter is 53.26 inches.

  4. Thanks, TK.

    it’s going to be a cold rain at the coast, unfortunately. Perhaps some flakes mixed in, but nothing to write a Christmas card about.

    If we look down the road, GFS now pushes the cold way up north in its long-range. Of course, it could be wrong. But I am not sold on this being a particularly cold or snowy month. Some nights in the teens, yes. But it is December. We’ve had teens at night in December MANY Decembers. The wish-casting on social media must stop. It’s really gotten out of hand.

    By the way, Dutch forecasters I know have been questioning the “December to Remember” hype ever since the train pulled out of the station in early to mid-November. There were folks in Northwestern Europe also predicting a “very cold and snowy start to winter” on social media. Well, after a very brief cold spell around the 20th of November, it’s been a continuous stream of southwesterlies with areas of low pressure coming in from the Atlantic and mild to very mild temps (into the low 50s during the day/40s at night) for the foreseeable future.

  5. I wonder, if in the next forecasting package cycle, which is probably now this afternoon, the NWS will consider changing some of the counties to winter weather advisories, of which are now under winter storm watches.

    I’m not great with counties. The one I still know is Middlesex county from growing up in Lowell. That’s an example of a county under a winter storm watch that I think is more deserving of a winter weather advisory or a special weather statement.

    I do think a few counties do need to eventually transition to a winter storm warning, but it should be a smaller or much smaller area than is now under a watch.

    1. Totally agree, but there is no such thing as an advisory watch, so when the actual warnings go up, I presume the current watch area will be split into Advisories and Warnings to handle it.
      That’ my guess anyway. We shall see.

      Joshua hit the nail on the head, a COLD RAIN for anyone near the coast and that extends to 496 and beyond.

      btw, nice to see the NAM finally drop it’s ridiculous snow totals!!!!!

  6. Leaving shortly from Houston. Pouring rain right now. Yesterday was in the 50s. TK was right about the Gulf System. Overnighting in New Orleans tonight where it will also be raining. Sling shotting it up to you tomorrow. Should be dry in the morning as we make our pilgrimage to Cafe De Monde for as many beignets as we can eat….yummy!
    Next night in Marrieta, Ga. Hoping for a good Soul meal in Atlanta. Sadly Pitty Pats Porch is no longer in business. Any suggestions for great eating down there from our world travelers?

    1. Wish I could help, but only have been to the airport in Atlanta waiting for a connecting flight. Never been beyond that. Sorry.

  7. Thanks Tk . What are we thinking for rainfall numbers Boston / south . Cars had thick ice on them from last nights rain

  8. From the classroom, just a few days off and the students were so focused for first class today.

    The school year schedule is so antiquated and out of touch.

    We ask a school year of 36 weeks to be completed in about 43 calendar weeks with a 9 week summer vacation.

    Shorten summer vacation to 5 weeks, make Columbus Day a 1 week break, Thanksgiving a 1 week break, put a 1 week break in, in March, and make Memorial Day week a 1 week break.

    Have summer break July 1 thru August 5th or so.

    And add in all those other breaks and I am telling you, learning would grow a lot, if not exponentially above the strong learning already taking place. I promise, I’ve lived this 22 years, 180 days a year.

  9. I’m not seeing enough cold around for any extended snow. Living north of Boston and near the coast sometimes puts me in a battle zone area. So I’ll bet 80% rain / 20% snow for me.

  10. Thanks, TK.

    Does anyone know what happened to the National Weather Service Radio frequency 162.550 in Worcester, MA? They have said for almost a wk. that they are “temporarily down”. We tried the Boston staion and everything else on the weather services like Boston. We have a VHF tranceiver that is a hand-held.

  11. Thanks TK.

    Not sure what Bob Maxon was talking about on NBC CT with the colder trend on the models overnight. If there was a bump colder at 6z, it is most certainly gone at 12z. This looks like almost entirely a rain event with a little slop at the onset inside 495 and Pike south, except northern Litchfield County.

  12. Looking ahead……

    Thursday night looks very cold…seeing a lot of single digits for lows in most interior areas on the models and the NWS even has downtown Boston at 11F. And with wind chill could feel more like zero as TK notes in the forecast above.

    This weekend’s threat looks benign but the Euro EPS does have a signal for something to watch about 10 days out…

    https://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_2025_12/image.png.9ed17b44abf59cec7e532ec961f50c3f.png

    1. Yes and as TK has in his forecast and the 12z models are showing, Friday, as of now, is not getting to 32F. More like mid 20s.

  13. My sister who lives in Vermont and is an avid outdoors person along with her husband, echoes what Mark has been saying about NNE. She said the mountains got plenty of snow during the last few weeks of November. With cold on the way for at least a 10 day period, it should continue to be a very good start to the season.

    If I can get through my December work chores, I may go up there. I am officially snow-deprived.

    1. Just the northern part of the county, not southern down near where JJ lives. And I would expect NWS Albany will convert that to an advisory at their next update. Not to be a debbie downer for JJ but I would keep expectations low. Any sloppy inch or two up front should get washed away.

  14. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=sn10_024h-imp&rh=2025113000&fh=72&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=sn10_024h-imp&rh=2025113012&fh=60&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=sn10_024h-imp&rh=2025120100&fh=48&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=sn10_024h-imp&rh=2025120112&fh=42&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    Euro op run

    The slow retreat to the northwest during the last 36 snow projections. Its the retreat I am posting about, not the actual amts as this 10:1 ratio isn’t great for this event.

    The top link is 36 hrs ago, then 24 hrs ago, then 12 hrs ago, and finally, the current 12z run.

    1. Pretty dramatic shift N&W

      Well it’s official, this storm is TOAST for SNE snow lovers, unless one lives way out there. 🙂

    2. Euro was once “King”. Now it is “King Nothing” to quote the Metallica song…

      And it’s AI counterpart was even worse with this system.

  15. In Beaumont. Thanks TK for helping us with the transition back to New England reality. Been in the middle 40s here since we left Houston. And heavy rain has followed us making driving a challenge. Hope to arrive home Friday or Saturday.
    Happy almost snowstorm to you all.

        1. I’m guessing he meant more that he now believes the number he submitted is too high?

          I hope not though, because future systems will have plenty more cold air to work with, compared to this one. 🙂

  16. I hope the coastline can get “some” snow with the weekend system. The temperatures “look”colder anyway.

    1. The weekend system does not look like much of anything at the moment. You’ll need patience if you want measurable snow around Boston and the coast.

  17. Thanks, TK!

    Today always brings me to James Taylor with his incredible lyrics:

    Now the first of December was covered with snow
    Yes and so was the turnpike from Stockbridge to Boston
    Now the Berkshires they seem dreamlike on account of that frostin’
    With ten miles behind me and ten thousand more to go

    I have always loved how JT rhymed Boston with frostin’!!! 🙂

    Sunset in Taunton tonight is 4:15:44. The earliest of the year is next Monday at 4:14:46. 58 seconds to go!!! 🙂

    Go Pats!

    1. One of the albums I listened to at work today was a custom track listing of James Taylor’s Christmas album. As a bonus track I added “Sweet Baby James” at the end. 🙂

  18. Speaking of the Pats, the 2-10 Giants have played ….

    The 9-3 Chicago Bears
    The 10-2 Broncos
    The 8-4 Eagles twice
    The 8-3-1 Packers
    The 7-5 Lions
    The 8-4 Chargers
    The 9-4 (49ers)

    Throw out the Giants record and I hope the Pats come ready to play, as they have been, throughout the season. This is not an easy game tonight.

    1. That would be a combined opponent record of 67-25-1

      I won’t do this for the Pats, because they are at the opposite end of the spectrum and I don’t necessarily want to know what their opponents records are. 🙂 🙂 🙂

    2. They don’t seem to play well in their 1960 vintage uniforms, even during the Brady era. I would be curious as to their record when wearing them. They lost to Pittsburgh earlier in the season so that’s at least ONE right there.

      I am very worried about this one. A trap game if there ever was one.

      1. Their overall record in those uniforms since they were “throwbacks” is 10-8.

        But I will tell you that the uniforms have nothing to do with the outcome of the game. It is how they play the game.

        1. That’s just 2 games over .500 by my math, such as it is. 😉

          For the record I fell in love with the “flying Elvis” as soon as the team announced it and I saw it on tv. I usually am very slow with change but not that time. 🙂

          Pat Patriot never won a Super Bowl and rarely got them to the playoffs. Ok they did good in 1985-86. 😉

              1. They’re not bad – just not my favorite either.

                My favorite Pats uniform is the regular road one – dark blue pants with white shirts.

  19. FWIW, the 2pm Norton NWS snowmap seems slightly increased compared to 10am this morning, or whenever the last snow map was put out there.

    Minor changes, but nonetheless, their take brings 1-2″ closer to Boston, if I read it correctly.

  20. Sutton just shared this on FB. Sounds interesting

    The Highway Department recently acquired 1 Road Weather Information System (RWIS) Weather Station with a camera and 1 stand-alone camera through a rental program with Frost Solutions for the Town. These mini weather stations provide real-time information on air and road temperatures, dew point, grip assessment (your tire’s ability to grip the road), and capture real-time images to help better manage winter storms and other severe weather events.

  21. JR stated that this is more like a spring storm, ELEVATION dependent.

    That rain/snow line is WELL west now. Snow may be on car rooftops at best around Boston come Tuesday evening.

    1. Loosely like a spring one. Spring’s ocean influence is not as strong as late autumn’s. This really is a late autumn event, because it’s late autumn. I only partly agree with JR .. here I just think it’s better to call it what it is and tell the people why.

    2. The thing to watch for in Boston and points south is a freeze-up of untreated surfaces overnight Tuesday night / Wednesday morning.

      1. And that will be the big story for Boston / south is freeze up . I’m working a double shift tomorrow 7am- 11pm . I’ll get home around midnight & leaving house Wednesday at 4am for 5am start .

    1. Even though my ranges are slightly different, Ch 7’s map is the one my thoughts line up with most.

      1. The max potential modeled temp today with the GFS/ECMWF was 36-38 in my area of western Massachusetts. I just checked for Boston and it was 38-40. The high out here today was 42, the high in Boston 43. When models are cold 3-4 degrees it is going to not play nice with its ice and snow output. …

        I have a flight out of Boston tomorrow. Going to leave early, but I expect I will get out.

        1. Great observation about today’s temps vs what the models expected. I didn’t think to look at this, but another something to do before future events.

  22. CPC’s web page may be down at times tomorrow due to scheduled maintenance, for anybody who uses it.

  23. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat-imp&rh=2025120112&fh=204&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=prateptype_cat_ecmwf-imp&rh=2025120112&fh=204&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

    Major caveat: this is so far

    It wouldn’t be a setup for a major storm, but maybe a light snowfall that could include the coastal plain with colder air possibly entrenched and certainly sitting close by to our north.

    We’ll watch it for a good week and see what it looks like then.

  24. According to Eric, Boston is also approaching a record for ANY measurable snowfall. He said that the last was mid February. YIKES!!!

    1,375 ❄️ (2nd longest record)

    1. I actually think that streak may end tomorrow night at the very end of the storm when they get a coating (probably 0.1 or 0.2 inch).

    1. Lawrence Public schools and some academy in Methuen.

      Those could be questionable, but these others seem Worcester area and southern interior NH. Although, their best snow may be after most of the school day is done.

          1. And this, if this verifies, will cause some negative feedback towards superintendents and Mets, because this really suggests south of concord, NH !!!!!!!!! you can get the school day in and get the students home safely. So, some of the negative feedback you’ll be hearing tomorrow is a little self-inflicted by forecasting that clearly is not communicating well enough that the best inland snow falls later tomorrow afternoon and tomorrow evening. But, not much snow on the roads, even well inland tomorrow before 4pm.

  25. Worcester schools closed tomorrow. Gee what a surprise. ❄️

    Those kids must have the most snow days in the state per winter.

  26. According to Wankum:

    -With the water equivalent, this would be a foot of snow. Yes he referred to the 10:1 ratio.

    -If the storm came at night, it would be mostly snow.

  27. Inland tomorrow, like in Worcester, the route 2 corridor, has potential for the classic question by early afternoon, “what happened to the snow?”

    I’m willing to bet most folks out there expect a few to several inches of snow on the ground by sunset. Boy, are they in for a surprise !

    If their amts verify, it’s going to be after sunset and for a few hrs thereafter. But, the cancellations prove that people think it’s going to be accumulating during late morning and into the early/mid afternoon. Nope, even out there, the short range guidance says it’s going to be 34-36F most of the afternoon. Oh well …..

  28. Some of the mountains and the top of the buildings in Melbourne’s main city saw snow yesterday…. Its almost summer here. Where I was at, we got a bunch of hail.

      1. One heck of a run back.

        11 wins could do it for getting into the playoffs. Not a guarantee but very close.

        12 wins and they are in for sure.

  29. I think the Patriots understood the assignment this week. All three groups are doing great and yes agressive. Love it, but I will admit, these refs are letting them play, while others would have thrown some penalties that havent been called. Need to be careful with some of these hits by Ellis they are legal but some refs will call it.

    1. One of the tougher calls in the nfl can be helmet to helmet hits. The refs have to call those that are illegal versus those that are incidental. The tendency is to call more of them illegal.

      The most difficult calls are pass interference and defensive holding.

      1. The one tonight was 100% incidental.
        There have been no illegal hits in this game.

        I have zero issue with any of them.

  30. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=icon&p=sfct-imp&rh=2025120100&fh=48&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=icon&p=sfct-imp&rh=2025120200&fh=24&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    The icon 24-36 hrs ago was a colder model solution. Look tonight, it’s warmed Worcester and Lawrence 3-4F (2nd link) compared to its 1st link.

    Those colder, inland solutions just didn’t handle the inland temps very well and now at the last minute, are trying to play catchup.

    1. We had almost an identical situation around the same time last year. Models did the exact same thing. Many were looking for a big snow. Was never in the cards.

        1. Well known how much trouble the various guidance has with the boundary layer.

          Autumn storm, not winter storm.

          It’s all right in front of us.

          JMA said this was a relatively easy forecast and I completely agree.

  31. Wankum mentioned that if it was cold enough we would have a foot of snow. He used the 10:1 ratio. He also noted that if the storm came in at night, it would have been snow.

    1. We’d have to have 1.20 inches melted precip and every flake would have to accumulate. I don’t think we’re getting 1.2 melted.

      And the ocean doesn’t drop from 49F in the daytime to 36F at night.

      I like Mike, his presentations are excellent, concise and easy to follow. His meteorology doesn’t always work for me.

    2. He is incorrect. The ratio on this storm varies quite a bit from one place to another. Can’t just use a broadbrush 10:1 to describe this.

      If it was colder, it would be a foot of snow where? Boston? No. Warm air holds more moisture. I have said this so many times here I’ve worn out the phrase .. haha!

      If the storm came in at night, it would not necessarily have been snow throughout in the areas that are going to change. In fact, it likely wouldn’t have been. The initial rain / snow line would probably have been a bit closer to the coast, but that’s it.

      So respectfully I disagree with virtually all of it.

      1. 11 p.m. update he left out the February part. It was in the teaser at the start of the news.

        Either way, no big deal to me – but I do think it’s important to clarify every time it’s said. Also, the part about it coming in overnight leading to a foot is not correct.

  32. I forgot to post this morning, the WBZ radio bizarre comment of the month, coming on the very first morning.

    News anchor says “It’s usually cloudy every day in December.” The very next line: “December 2 is statistically the sunniest day of the year.”

    I have NO idea why that was said or what they were actually trying to get across. On top of that, both statements were completely incorrect.

    iHeart radio strikes again! 😉

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