Tuesday December 2 2025 Forecast (6:59AM)

160 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 2-6)

It’s now the “day-of” the long-talked-about storm threat, which all along has not really looked like that big a deal. Basically there are no changes to what I said yesterday. So basically reiterating, a dual system passing by our region today and tonight consists of a weakening northern system and a strengthening system to the south, the latter of which has a low center that takes over the action as it passes to our south, intensifying, but not at a very rapid rate. Also working with marginal temperatures in place, and the warming influence of the ocean, this system will have a rain/snow line that is mainly north and west of Boston for most of its duration, starting out in the northwest suburbs closer to the city at the onset of precipitation during the mid morning to midday hours, then moving more to the northwest through the time of the low pressure area’s closest pass, before being pulled back to the southeast as the storm begins to move away from the region, with the rain/snow line likely reaching Metro Boston just as the precipitation begins its taper-off process. Additionally, prior to all of this, an initial southerly air flow and a little convergence is creating a band of mix/rain showers in parts of RI and east central MA that will fade by mid morning. This is an indicator of the milder air at the surface which is going to prevent much of any snow from occurring over the South Coast / MA South Shore areas. Snow amounts forecasts haven’t changed and will be reflected again in the detailed forecast section below. Once this storm exits, a quick chill-down will create icy untreated surfaces late tonight into Wednesday morning, so be careful if traveling (by foot or vehicle) during this time. Daytime Wednesday I expect dry, breezy, chilly weather behind the storm system. Still watching for the timing and potential rain and snow showers / squalls with the passage of a sharp cold front later Thursday. Leaning toward a late afternoon snow shower or potential squall in areas north and west of Boston and an evening snow or rain shower with more marginal temps to the south. This front will usher in a very cold air mass for early December, with well-below-normal temperatures, dry weather, and a gusty wind for Friday. A weak low pressure area and trough extending to the north of it will pass by Friday night and Saturday morning with a bit of light snow possible, and a secondary trough may cause a snow flurry later Saturday as well, but that system looks rather benign at this point.

TODAY: Overcast. Precipitation arrives prior to midday north and west of Boston, around midday Boston southward – snow to potential mix I-495 to I-90 north and west, snow/mix to rain I-95 belt, mainly rain but can start as brief mix Boston south. Highs 33-40 except 40-47 Cape Cod / Islands. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Precipitation ending followed by overnight clearing. Expected snow totals generally a trace to 1 inch I-95 belt with closest to 1 inch most likely inland, 1 to 3 inches interior southern NH and I-495 / I-90 region west from I-495 westward, 3 to 6 inches higher elevations Worcester County to interior southern NH, with isolated 6+ amounts at highest elevations. Lows 22-30. Wind shifting to NW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 32-39. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 22-29. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. A late-day snow shower or snow squall potential north and west of Boston. Highs 37-44. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy early with an evening rain/snow shower potential Boston area south. Clearing after. Lows 8-15. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill can approach 0.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 23-30. Wind NW 5-15 MPH. Wind chill often below 20.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of light snow. Lows 15-22 evening, but may rise slightly overnight. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of light snow early. Chance of a snow shower in the afternoon. Highs 33-40. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 7-11)

Watching for a couple systems to pass through or near the region with mostly minor precipitation threats (snow favored over rain) as temperatures stay mostly below normal during this period.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 12-16)

Another one or two systems can threaten with rain/mix/snow but early indications are for no major storms. Temperatures trend milder into mid month as the main storm track shifts to the Great Lakes for these systems.

160 thoughts on “Tuesday December 2 2025 Forecast (6:59AM)”

    1. No wait, not 6, didn’t get it

      I think I was thinking on my 6th guess, I still wasn’t close and that’s why I mistakenly wrote 6. 🙂

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  3. Good morning and thank you TK

    32 after low of 27

    Ocean: 49

    Nice win by the Patriots.
    11-2 to lead the league. Not too shabby. Buffalo next after the bye.

    Wordle; FAIL
    Not even close. Totally and completely lost. Perhaps if I lived in Southern Arizona, I might have gotten it. 😉

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  8. Any school closing up in MA today? Here in CT where I live school is closed along with other school districts in northwestern CT.

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    1. Some are. Right now I suspect some that are open wished they closed. I’m reading fb comments that buses are caught in traffic caused by accidents. Some kids are on. Others are at bus stop not sure when or if the bus is coming.

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      1. That was a battle for you – and you were victorious. Well done!

        I also got it in 5.

        I had no good ideas on the fourth guess. I tried something I didn’t recognize as a word and it was accepted as a guess. I hope I don’t give too much away by giving one of the definition of that word:
        As an Ayurvedic treatment, it is a therapeutic procedure, often considered one of the most important Panchakarma (purification) techniques. It involves introducing herbal decoctions or medicated oils into the rectum to cleanse the colon and treat Vata dosha, which is associated with many diseases.

        I’ll try to use that word in casual conversation a few times today. 🙂

        Reply

  11. https://www.weather.gov/wwamap/png/box.png

    That coating Vicki is seeing, I thing that is courtesy of a little ocean enhancement almost from the south coast and a little convergence btwn the almost 40F along the coast and the 20F inland.

    The echoes suggest it, as most of the other echoes are different looking than these echoes,

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    3. There was some intense snow in that area. It accompanied me during my entire drive from Sharon to Maynard and made 495 a nightmare. Multiple accidents. Took me 2 hours to clear it.

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      1. Those were convective looking echoes, as opposed to the fuzzy looking echoes further to the west.

        Not surprised the snow was briefly heavy, based on the echoes. Surprised it took place, as the short range, hi Res models didn’t capture that feature, (I think)

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  12. Up to 33 here. Will it be too warm when precipitation actually arrives here. We shall see. Likely, but who knows.

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  15. I am putting the over / under for Friday at 29F.

    The next Pats game is on the 14th at 1:00 PM. Me thinks it will be moved to be the Sunday night game.

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  18. Last night’s game ……

    I always enjoy seeing a professional athlete have a moment occasionally that probably is like what most of us would do, if we were put in that position.

    Like the Giants field goal kicker, who I think misjudged his approach to the football and seemingly stubbed his whole foot at the moment of the kick. And, its like, yes, that is what I would do.

    Or when a golfer, in the rough or bunker hits a shot and it either goes nowhere or rolls back into the bunker, and your thinking, that is what happens to me every time !!!!!

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  19. RRFS nailed the convergence low level convective band.

    3km NAM had a slight reflection of it.

    Put another notch in the “is time to retire the NAM” column.

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    1. oh ok, thanks TK !

      I had said above I didn’t think any of the short range, high resolution models caught that low level convective band.

      I will pay closer attention to the RRFS next time !!

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      1. Oh my, I feel quite honored getting a “Holy crap batman” from you JPD! But I wish it was being used in reference to the weather. 🙂

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    1. It does look nice !

      I think Mark has pointed out how much snow the mtns have seen already this season and looking at the trails, the snow looks deep !

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      2. The mountains of northern VT (i.e. Stowe, Jay Peak, etc) have gotten pounded with upslope and have record snow depths for this time of year. But central/southern VT from Killington and points south had little natural snow cover before today.

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  24. The Holy Cross, Worcester webcams show the ground starting to whiten.

    I think those convective cells are partially hitting the campus, as the snow flakes are pretty large, sort of convective nature.

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      1. Still hanging in at 34 here, which has surprised me for sure.

        I would like to see it at least start as some snow before flipping over!!!

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        1. Radar shows precip overhead, but not reaching the ground here. dp 23 here, so “should” snow, unless it has warmed above already???

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  33. I was rather pleased with myself last night. I figured out how to stream The Mac Davis 1969 Christmas concert from my iPad to the tv. It was a great memory along with a box full of tissues

    You might recognize some of these folks. https://ibb.co/fYdcbZvN

    Reply

  36. Thanks TK! I’ve enjoyed reading the discussion, and agree with you and JMA – this storm has always looked like a really easy forecast at least for the past 3-4 days, after it became apparent it would hit. That part was not as easy.

    A couple really quick model thoughts from me:

    – The RRFS is far superior to the NAM. We’re literally talking decades worth of technological superiority. NAM retirement is one of those things that’s been talked about forever but finally appears to be actually imminent. One critique I have of the RRFS is that it does have a tendency to swing pretty wildly from run to run in the 60-84 hour time frame. Obviously, so does the NAM, but I still don’t love that. I guess it can be helpful with outlining “boom/bust” potential, but I’d rather better consistency.
    – I do still lean on the HRRR a fair bit as well, probably more than I should. And the RGEM is still decent too, it’s aging but has certainly aged better than the NAM, and unlike the NAM, has still received upgrades in recent years.
    – For big picture synoptics, ensembles remain king beyond day 5. I’ve seen about equal cases where the deterministic GFS or EC “does better”. The EC AIFS is worth paying attention to as well.

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  38. At the office in Hartford now and cold air is holding tight. Still 29F here and 100% frozen precip. Light snow/sleet mix. Roads look a little slick.

    I see the NWS has extended the Winter Weather Advisories into Hartford and Tolland County CT which looks like the right move.

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  39. Ch. 7 now believes that Boston could receive coatings before the precipitation ends. Their overall totals have been bumped up a bit.

    Boston is now in the C-2”. Earlier it was outside the snow ranges completely.

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  40. Admin account is back!

    I was actually just too lazy to log back in after I had to reset something. 😉

    Let the debate between the chionophobes (the lighter definition, not the medical one) and chionophiles continue.

    Reply

  41. 12z GFS and 0z Euro as well look interesting starting this weekend and through next week (roughly 12/6 through 12/12 period). 3-4 storm threats in that period roughly every two days. fast pattern with several clipper systems passing underneath us and plenty of cold air around.

    This one around 12/10 continues to look most interesting on the ensembles, with coastal redevelopment to our south. …

    https://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_2025_12/image.png.0688b2de6525c125640059040e02c9e6.png

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  42. Lowell, per a webcam has a thick coating, if not an inch of snow and its still snow there.

    Worcester has a coating, but the visibility is up, so maybe a transition to sleet.

    There are some aspects of the first part of this event, where the colder inland temp simulations are doing well.

    Forecasting is hard !

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  44. For those interested, my first 4 articles for Forbes this month are online. See link below and scroll down. If the use of artificial intelligence in healthcare interests you, prescription drug prices in Medicare, positive progress in the fight against malaria, or a program in Medicaid to essentially import overseas prices of medicines, you’ll hopefully find these of interest.
    https://www.forbes.com/sites/joshuacohen/

    Reply

  45. Mark mentioned clipper systems. We’re due for a surprise system that blows up off the coast. They tend to sneak up on you.

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    1. Very nice. I feel like going to Leominster.

      It’s 37F here in Boston with cold rain. Reykjavik weather, I call it.

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  49. Well, put another projection of mine in the wrong column.

    I was posting yesterday evening, watching the HRRR and other short range models, showing 35F up to Concord, NH through mid-afternoon and believing it would be hard for snow to stick south of Concord, NH until later this afternoon.

    Completely wrong. Much colder inland and obviously more snow has fallen, to this point.

    Even Gloucester has temporarily seen the boundary layer cool from 44F to 38F.

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  50. We have switched to freezing rain in Downtown Hartford with the temp at 31F.

    Still snowing up the road at BDL as of 2PM with a temp of 29F.

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  52. Not sure what is happening. It was 35 when rain commenced, then over a few hours, the temperature dropped to 33.5 and in the last 1/2 hour it has bounced back up to 34. Certainly NOT the 41 or 42 modeled for this hour.

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  53. Thanks TK! Another soaker here on the South Coast. I had 1.4 in my rain gauge from Sunday and looks like another inch on the way. We have had a lot of rain in this area since early November.

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    1. Roads are slick in downtown Hartford with lots of slush and a solid coating of ice/snow on the sidewalks. Definitely wasnt expecting temps to still be at/below freezing at this hour.

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  57. Will see how much more snow for December will be added to the 2 inches for inland CT. There have been December’s where no measurable snowfall has happened.

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  61. A little better trapping of cold air near the surface for inland areas. Not a system with strong warm advection. We needed more gradient wind from the offshore storm and it’s not really picking up, mainly because the low is strengthening far slower than all guidance indicated, and I played it conservatively, not even enough apparently. It is making a little difference for some areas, but not a major impact in general.

    If you like holiday tunes, and especially if you are fan of the band America, check out this album, called “Holiday Harmony”. It’s a favorite of mine. 🙂

    https://youtube.com/playlist?list=OLAK5uy_k35wtaY6KooutwkcZElfNMvz1_dz1LJj8&si=rPDLywmUrwzol2U2

    Their version of “White Christmas” is modeled directly off their song “Tin Man”, and it’s brilliant and evokes a lot of emotion! This one gets played on the radio stations that don’t get stuck repeating the same 25 Christmas songs over and over from November 12 to 11:59 p.m. December 25. There are so many great songs out there for the season that are neglected. Stations like WBCN would play all those tunes (except the ones that were not written or recorded yet obviously). But I make some super-awesome Spotify playlists for this time of year, which are all going to be public so anybody who has Spotify can find them and save them. 🙂

    My son and I are also setting up an internet radio station that will have a Christmas section hopefully by next holiday season. 🙂

    Reply

  62. Interesting drive. Mass Pike Chicopee to Warren was bad. In Warren it started to mix and was like that until the Grafton area and roads rapidly improved. After 495, rain, and past Framingham / Natick it looked like there was no snow to be found.

    Stayed colder than I anticipated. My wife reports 2.5″ on the cold glass surface of our patio table. A fluffier snow in the deep valley. The end results will be about as predicted, but tiny difference in temp profiles and their impacts for particular local microclimates have made for some variable outcomes.

    PS – easiest weekday daytime drive 128 / 95 interchange to Logan that I have had in years.

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    1. And it does not have that usual mild marine airmass feel.

      There’s not much wind, it’s raining steadily and it feels really chilly and raw.

      And with the thick clouds, it’s pretty much dark at 4pm and you know how I feel about that. 🙂

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      1. Been dark all day here. Decidedly so. Just put the trash barrels back and it is raining hard and it is COLD!!!
        crept up to 35 here, but that really feels cold. Today had the LOWEST day time temperatures of the season.

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        1. I love the dark days of December. I’m in the minority, for sure, but I just love them. It makes me think of being in mom’s kitchen with her radio on and the first holiday songs of the season coming on in between the non-holiday tunes. I used to get so excited hearing it.

          Now I go down there to turn on the Christmas lights and we have the heat about 10 degrees lower than she had it when she was around. It’s cold and dark in comparison, but once those lights are on, it feels better. I’ll be spending some time down there with my son listening to music and making the place warmer while we play a game or go through some things.

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    2. Yes, yesterday I said I expected their streak of “no measurable snow” will end with this event. All it takes is 0.1 inch.

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            1. Rain to sleet / mix around 7 p.m. or 8 p.m., a brief break, then snow showers after 9:00 p.m. until 3:00 a.m. or so which is when they get their measurable.

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        1. I hope you get into the back piece that rotates SE later tonight and can get a coating or maybe even an inch of snow.

          On a different subject, perhaps without the to high to the north and with the southern low somewhat far away during the day, we were stuck in no gradient land in the middle today, without a big pressure difference, and that’s what helped the cold inland hang in there better than a) the short range models showed right before the event and b) what we’ve seen in the past.

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          1. Logan’s latest wind barb looks NNW to me.

            They may never have gotten on the east side of the coastal front in this event.

            That’s crazy, but neat. I would not have considered it a possibility.

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  72. Beyond this system the trend is below normal temps / below normal precip for a while.

    Brief mid month mild spell then I’m seeing some signs of a stretched PV diving this-a-way. Almost shades of December 1989.

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    1. 29.3 14.1 21.7 -14.0

      From NWS climate data for Dec 1989 at Logan

      The columns are high temp low temp average of the 2 temps and monthly departure

      Yep, a negative 14F anomaly at Logan for Dec 1989

      I understand you are in no way, TK, predicting any numbers or anything.

      Just reporting the data for Dec 1989 🙂

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      1. The coldest December on record which was then followed by the warmest January on record. The most extreme swing from one side to the other we’ve seen around here.

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        1. No way !!

          I didn’t look at January 1990 🙂

          I was up at Lyndon in northeast VT at the time. It must have been numbing cold up there, but I can’t remember 🙂 🙂 🙂

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  73. Got home from work here in Coventry CT and it was raining and 35 with bare ground. They were plowing this afternoon in downtown Hartford with 1-2” of slop on the roads and sidewalks, as I reported earlier. Cant recall another time that has occurred. Usually it is the other way around and we are running 5-7F colder than Hartford being at 750’ elevation. Being 15 miles east made a big difference today. Generally if you were south and east of I 84 in CT today it was a cold rain and north and west it was primarily snow /mix.

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  74. Same here in Sturbridge, we were right on the cusp of a freezing rain event, or a heavy wet snowstorm. Instead we ended up with .98” of cold rain with a brief start as snow. I think both TK and Tom pointed out the significance of the ocean temps minus the cold high to our north, were major players in the outcome. I think if this was a few weeks later, perhaps we would be talking a foot around these parts. I have to keep reminding myself as a snow lover that we have not officially entered the winter season, and there are plenty of opportunities yet to come.

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    1. Nice to see you. Just checked 0.97 here. I hoped being a bit further west that you had more. I’m not sure what more north and west had in sutton. There are a few power outages being reported now up that way

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    2. Very true. We’ll have more chances soon. Perhaps even next week with a string of clippers dipping down from Canadian. Wouldn’t be surprised if one cuts underneath us and delivers a light to moderate snowfall.

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  75. Hi Vicki, we usually fair well here with the rain / snow line being in our favor for snow. However this time it was about 20 miles to our north and west. I’m fairly confident that we will have a white Christmas around these parts this year. I’m just hoping we can avoid a travel disrupting event on the 11th as my son is supposed to fly home from college on Christmas break.

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    1. I responded and it seemed to go poof

      Prayers for safe and easy travels for your son

      I think I’m hearing some frozen precip on the windows.

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  79. Still snowing lightly here in Quincy. Slush on windows and rooftops on cars in my facility parking lot. Too bad I had to wait until dark for my first flakes of the season.

    Based on today’s posts this was a strange storm with highly variable conditions. I get the impression that some areas that usually get snow got rain and vice versa. Am I correct?

    1,377 ❄️

    Will my count continue into 2026? Would love to see a white Christmas for consecutive years. 🙂 ❄️

    I also wonder if this same system were in the 1960s/70s there would be widespread snow even at the coastline. Our new climate has caused our ocean temperatures to rise higher than normal. Last check Boston Buoy is 49F.

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    1. You’re mostly correct, other than there was nothing strange about the storm. It behaved as many early season systems do.

      Inland / higher elevation maximum snowfall.
      Coastal influence from ocean – little or no snow.
      Back-end flip to light frozen precip as storm departs.
      Boundary where temps had sharper contrast over small area with colder air trapped near the ground on one side of it.

      If this system occurred in the 1960s, 1970s, 2020s, or whenever, it would have behaved similarly. You’re giving the “new climate” FAR too much credit. The differences are actually quite subtle overall and are not even noticeable in many systems.

      Reply

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