Thursday December 4 2025 Forecast (7:18AM)

89 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 4-8)

A cold and mostly dry pattern is what we have now, but despite the overall dry nature, it’s active, because there are 3 “weather systems” to contend with. The first is an arctic cold front which creates a few snow showers and perhaps a narrow band of heavier snow squalls, favoring areas north of I-90, later today. Watch for that which, if it occurs, can briefly reduce visibility significantly and coat the roads with snow. For folks along the coast, today’s full moon (a super moon) will produce a king tide with areas prone to flooding seeing some of it. Thankfully this is not occurring at the same time as a major coastal storm. The coldest air mass of the season so far will give us a glancing blow tonight and Friday before moving on. Friday night and the first half of Saturday, low pressure will travel to our south, but a little northward extension of the trough from it can produce some snow showers in our area (maybe mix South Coast) – however this will be a minor event. We then watch for another strong cold front to bring a chance of snow showers later Sunday and reinforce the cold air heading into Monday.

TODAY: Partly sunny. A late-day snow shower or snow squall potential, favoring the I-90 belt northward. Highs 37-44. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy early with an evening snow shower potential, followed by clearing. Lows 8-15. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill approaches 0.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 23-30. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill often below 20.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow showers overnight. Lows 15-22 evening, but may rise slightly overnight. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of snow showers through midday except rain or snow showers South Coast. Highs 35-42. Wind variable up to 10 MPH becoming W.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 18-25. Wind W up to 10 MPH becoming calm.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Chance of late-day snow showers. Highs 35-42. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 10-17. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 25-32. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, diminishing.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 9-13)

Pattern brings two minor precipitation chances – late December 9 to early December 10, and again later in the period, timing uncertain. Temperatures near to below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 14-18)

One storm may track into the Great Lakes and bring a brief warm-up, but overall pattern trends colder. Two precipitation changes but no indication of major storms at this point.

89 thoughts on “Thursday December 4 2025 Forecast (7:18AM)”

  2. Good morning and thank you TK

    32 here after down to 30

    Ocean: 49

    Wordle; 3

    Not impressed with snow squall chances here. ALlready occurring in Northern Vermont. Fat chance here. We shall see.

    Reply

        1. Wordle is very difficult for me. I am just not wired for this type of brain activity. Because of that, it is beneficial for me to hang in there and keep trying. 🙂 🙂

          Reply

    3. Excellent JPD. 3 here also but my favorite part of the day so far is your three which means you can’t leave Wordle for six months. 🙂

      Reply

  3. Thanks TK !

    ‘Twas a very thick frost this morning. Took car a good 7 minutes to get the front window melted.

    Wordle: 6. (As Wordle says, phew !)

    Reply

    1. After a beautiful British isles day yesterday, I can confirm torrential downpours today and winds that wanted to cripple my umbrella.

      Reply

  18. From NWS

    Forecast soundings from the high-res guidance still
    indicate dry low to mid levels across much of the region, though
    snow squall parameter values from the NAM and GFS do remain
    elevated. Lapse rates and some elevated instability could point more
    favorably for the development of localized snow squalls,
    particularly in NW MA, but the key limiting factor will still be the
    drier air aloft. Scattered snow showers with some flurries are more
    favored elsewhere as the front passes through.

    Reply

  20. GFS op run – I think due to a bad initialization data point, is over-forecasting upper features and throwing the run off.

    Discard. Try again at 18z.

    Reply

      2. I’m sure you know Mark, but if its got this coming Monday wrong, then that throws off the whole rest of the run.

        Reply

        1. Well, Monday hasnt happened yet so remains to be seen 🙂

          Of course Monday aside, hour 360 on the GFS is wrong pretty much 99% of the time.

          Just looking at overall pattern though at a high level, there should be a few snow chances leading up to Christmas in this pattern which is my main takeaway from looking at the models right now.

          Reply

  21. Thanks TK. Nothing major brewing but like the early cold! Don’t like it tho for the cost of heat and electricity which is insane. I swear I was things would be cheaper, lol 🙂

    Reply

  24. The pattern we’ll be in is NOT conducive to quick transatlantic flights back to the U.S., though it is conducive to (perhaps record-breaking) shorter flights from the U.S. to Northwestern Europe. When you take off from Heathrow you immediately hit a strong headwind which lasts a while. And by the time it might calm down a bit as you approach Greenland, you’ll encounter the next strong headwind (after all, you have to descend in latitude to get to Boston and that’s when the strong northwesterly will do its thing). My guess is flight times from London to Boston could be well over 7 hours. Perhaps even 7.5 or more. In reverse, I think you’ll see plenty of flights as short as 6 hours.

    Reply

  25. It’s too bad WCRB is having yet another fund-raiser. I get it. They need money. But of course, I’d rather just hear music (plus, I donated $120 earlier this year).

    This said, this afternoon I get to hear Cathy Fuller (one of the hosts) as she does the fund-raising promotion. She has the best female radio voice I’ve ever heard. Sublime intonation. One is born with it, but one can learn to modulate. She has perfected the art.

    Reply

    1. Some of it will survive east, as expected, but a little less coverage & intensity overall than further west.

      Reply

  27. Mid afternoon thoughts…

    Weather
    -Short term: Everything on track with the arctic front moving across the region. Timing, coverage of snow showers. If an area does not get a snow shower or squall, this is NOT a busted forecast. Reason: I did not forecast 100% coverage. That’s as simple as I can put it – pretty easy to understand.
    -Medium range: Ignore the 12z GFS op run (as mentioned earlier). It’s a really bad one. No big changes in my overall ideas. Things to watch include some potential accumulating snow – minor event – Saturday morning, due to an inverted trough extending north from the low that passes to our south, and also it’s going to be important to watch the track of the clipper-type systems heading into next week. One or two of them can very easily distribute a light to moderate snowfall across the entirety of SNE.
    -Longer range: While I am still expecting a brief warm-up somewhere mid month, the trend is for this to be shorter-lived and unimpressive before cold retakes control. I do think this entire region is on the way to the coldest December in a quarter century – at least top 3.

    Sports
    -High school football fans would like to know that the 8 MIAA super bowl games played at Gillette will be streamed live, with 2 games today starting at 5:00 p.m., 2 games Friday starting at the same time, and 4 games Saturday starting in the late morning. The information including links to the stream sources can be found here: https://www.patriots.com/news/2025-miaa-football-state-championships-to-be-streamed-live-on-patriots-com

    Reply

      1. Not the coldest December on record, but the coldest one in 25 years, and yes possibly some meaningful snowfall as well. I already mentioned that.

        Hey I notice you’ve been present a lot more lately. Got your free time back just in time for the snow season, eh? 😉

        Reply

  29. The second surge of snow squalls just took the visibility at Hampton Beach to “white-out” status for about 5 minutes.

    Reply

  31. SNOWING here in JP.
    Not a squall (not yet anyway) just a routine snow shower.
    Temp under 32. Last I looked 31.7

    Reply

  33. That snow shower made it and clipped us in eastern Marshfield.

    I seem to remember a few flurries a week ago?, but this was briefly a wind driven whisk of light snow.

    Reply

        2. Love it. Silly maybe but it’s moments like these that become special memories.

          Somewhere I have photo of 6 foot mac standing on a pile of snow maybe 2ish feet and having to bend down to grill.

          Reply

  39. At 44% on December 4, this is the most extensive snow cover in the Lower 48 in the last 2 decades at this point in the late autumn.

    Reply

    1. And yet much of SNE is not in that “extensive snow cover”. 🙁

      JR showed the jet stream (cold) for the next two weeks and he mentioned that we are vulnerable for systems riding along that jet.

      My only issue is that I hope the Deep South doesn’t get more opportunities for snow than SNE. By the naked eye that jet stream could also steer any storms south of us as well.

      Would love to see consecutive white Christmases around here. 🙂 ❄️

      Reply

      1. Which is also normal for this time of year. The map is as of December 4. It’s also still autumn. We typically do not have a solid snow cover in SNE in late autumn. The point is, snow cover for the Lower 48 is the most in the past 20 years.

        The Deep South never gets more opportunities than the Northeast. It’s climatologically impossible.

        We seldom have consecutive white Christmases in SNE either. The chance is a little greater inland than at the coast, but still relatively low.

        And yes, JR is correct, but vulnerable does not translate to anything guaranteed. That’s why I forecast one system (in terms of detail) at a time. Realistic expectations.

        Reply

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