Saturday December 6 2025 Forecast (7:49AM)

104 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 6-10)

The pattern during the next 5 days will feature several quick-moving, generally weak low pressure systems to have minor impact overall (in terms of precipitation) but some notable temperature swings with the overall pattern being colder than the long-term average for this point in the season. The first such system is a low pressure area passing well to our south today but its large cloud canopy making it mainly overcast. A northward-extending trough from that low will cause a few snow and rain showers in the region this morning until about midday. The next system will be a clipper-style low passing just to our north Sunday night. This low will have a snow area with it but its track keeps it mainly north of the WHW forecast area, with just a few snow showers occurring mainly to the north of I-90 on Sunday night. Another weakening system flies north of the area Tuesday evening with a remote chance of a snow shower that will favor southern NH with less chance to the south. A slightly more formidable low pressure area, again clipper-style, will head our way via the Great Lakes on Wednesday. The early indications on this are a track to the north, enough to pull milder air into the region making the precipitation, still minor, more likely to be rain showers than snow showers for our region.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered snow showers I-90 region northward and mix / rain showers south of I-90 until midday. Highs 35-42. Wind variable up to 10 MPH becoming mainly W.

TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows 18-25. Wind W up to 10 MPH becoming calm.

SUNDAY: Sun followed by clouds. Highs 34-41. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered snow showers southern NH and northern MA, isolated snow showers to the south. Lows 13-20. Wind shifting to NW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 25-32. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, diminishing.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 8-15. Wind NW under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sun followed by clouds. Highs 28-35. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A snow shower possible favoring southern NH. Lows 20-27. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Increasing chance of mix to rain showers. Highs 38-45. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 11-15)

Reinforced cold arrives to start the period along with wind. Watching one or two clipper-style low pressure areas for mix/snow chances mid period before dry, cold weather returns at end of period.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 16-20)

Guidance trends have been wish-washy the last couple days – basically no help for this period of time. Expectations for indices that tend to control the pattern as well as little use of forecast persistence (old forecast tool I learned as a novice) leads me to not change things too much at this point. I’ll watch for a potential low into the Great Lakes and a brief warm-up, then the region near a battle zone between mild air to the south and cold from Canada, the latter of which probably ends up winning out, and not without a precipitation potential before the end of the period. Lots of time to solve the pattern puzzle here…

104 thoughts on “Saturday December 6 2025 Forecast (7:49AM)”

  4. Good morning and thank you TK

    31 here after low of 27 which was shortly after midnight as the temperature slowly climbed all night long.

    Ocean: 48 (Boston Buoy)

    I think TK described my feelings about the upcoming weather:
    WISHY WASHY!! Not impressed with anything. and the cold, what there is of it, has NO lasting power at all. All this talk of the polar vortex has been a joke as far as I am concerned.
    The cold of yesterday, although cold for sure, was extremely short lived. Polar Vortex, is that all you can do. WIMP!!

    And the parade of clippers, must they ALWAYS pass NORTH of our area. Seems that way, even though on occasion they pass South of us. WHY, oh WHY can’t we have one of those? I guess it’s not in the cards, not yet anyway. We shall see down the road.

    Wordle: 4 I wasted a guess on guess 3. Should have had it in 3 as guess 3 didn’t provide any more information.

    Reply

    1. They are not all going to pass north of the area. The next 3 are. There are several others in the pipeline after that with a pretty strong indication that the track is not going to stay where it will be the next 5 days.

      Reply

    1. Nice! The snow falling looks much like it does here. That’s not surprising since it’s just 11 miles from me.

      Reply

  9. Thank you, TK. A lot warmer last night with a low of 24. Up to 27 with a sugarcoating here also. I like that term.

    Reply

  10. What’s the difference between sugar coating and feather dusting?

    Is sugar coating just a wee bit thicker??? 🙂

    Reply

  13. Thanks TK! My daughter landed in Sydney, Australia this morning where temps have been in low 90s in their late spring. A line of heavy storms had just gone through leading her plane to circle for awhile. Now they have a cool SOUTH wind coming in that will lower temps for the week. She will be there the next 7 months long enough to see Australia play the US in the World Cup. How lucky is she that they ended up in the same pool!

    Reply

        1. Very cool! She will be heading to Perth later this week and she will be staying in Bussleton for three months working Caves Resort

          Reply

  16. Been reading about the Siberian snowpack this year. I have also looked at climatology maps and even watched some videos.

    It looks like the snowpack is advancing more rapidly and sort of more aggressively than it has in a few years. September is often seen as a critical month and the snowpack was growing and moving southward at that point. It continued into October. Sometimes the September-October period gives us an indication of our winter weather in New England which from the looks of it will be colder and snowier.

    A discussion of the Siberian snowpack and its effects could be a lengthy one. The bottom line seems to be a better potential this winter for a more persistent trough in the Midwest and East. With it comes more cold air and volatility.

    TK’s winter outlook was very much an in-depth and thoughtful piece obviously. But I always like to look at the Siberian ingredient.

    Reply

    1. I’ve never been too trusting of this indicator. Siberian snowcover is correlated to the cold are stores up in that region, which is great, but you still need the right pattern to get the cold air in the right place at the right time to result in above normal snowfall for New England. That requires a series of things to line up enough times to say that our reason for the snowier conditions was largely based on how much snow was on the ground in Siberia and when it started to accumulate. To me that’s just not a strong correlation. I think when it was first noted, it was vastly overrated.

      Reply

      2. I would never think of the Siberian snowpack as being a sole reason for snowier winters. That would be ridiculous.

        Reply

  17. Streaming the remaining 4 HS football super bowl games today while I work on my to-do list.

    Game 1, underway now, is the Division 8 Superbowl between Randolph & West Boylston. My pick is Randolph.

    Game 2, Division 4, is Scituate & Tewksbury. Scituate is the #1 seed, but Tewksbury will take the game.

    Game 3, Division 2, Catholic Memorial will defeat Bishop Feehan, IMO.

    The 4th game, the Division 1 match-up between St. John’s Prep and Xaverian Brothers, is the finale of the 3-day series of game. St. John’s is a slight favorite, but I think “The Brothers Xaverian” will take the trophy.

    Good luck to all!

    Reply

  19. Hmmmhmmm. Clipper brigade. I was wondering what to call if. Quick but the second leaving a trace to replace the first thst had pretty much melted

    Reply

  21. Waves of snow showers passing by my location with burst of large festive flakes. I have a time lapse video running to capture some of it from the 3rd floor and a long view to the west.

    Some minor accumulation occurring.

    0.5 inch of new snow has fallen at Fitchburg today.

    Reply

  22. Thanks, TK.

    I echo JP Dave. I was NOT impressed by the short-lived cold. I liked it, but it dissipated so quickly. And while we’ll have some cold days and nights, it does NOT look like December 1980.

    It’s nice to have it feel like winter for a change in December with some below normal temps, but at least here in Boston I am far from impressed (also looking ahead at the immediate and mid-term future). And I really can’t stand the PV and SSW talk which is rampant on social media and so full of overblown hype.

    As far as snow chances in Bostonare concerned, we’ll see. I am not counting on it.

    Reply

    1. Our colder pattern so far this month is a result of a PV stretch.

      The short-lived more intense cold shot was expected to be exactly that – short lived, so it lived up to expectation.

      As far as snow chances, you know I never hype those up. I take each system the correct way, based on how far away the threat is.

      Far fewer surprises (or disappointments for snow lovers) this way. Yet the general population (not this blog’s population – we know better) falls into the hype trap on an annual basis, which I still don’t quite understand, when there’s more sound information available at the fingertips. It’s just a matter of clicking the correct links. 😉

      Reply

      1. Joshua and I have no issues whatsoever on anything you posted on the PV. I for one, was addressing the overall media HYPE bullshit!!! One would think we would have been transported to SIBERIA!!!

        ha ha ha

        It’s Meteorological Winter. Sometimes it get really cold. Big woof.

        Reply

    1. As stated in my discussion, the rain showers are expected well to the south, not in this area. You’ll have snow showers if the precipitation crosses your location.

      Reply

      1. Due to the thermal profile, that is what I was hoping. Don;t even want it to start as rain and that is still a possibility.` Still 38 here.

        Reply

  24. Now up to 38 here. I fear when the precip gets here, it will be in the form of rain, but even so, hopeful it will quickly turn to snow with the Aloft temperatures still cold. We shall see.

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  27. I am enjoying your MIAA Super Bowl commentary, TK.

    Middleborough High won the 2017 Super Bowl at Gillette. I swear half of the town was in the stands that morning. What an event for the kids, staff, school and community!

    The Krafts make sure the whole week is first-rate and classy for all involved: the players, coaches, refs, bands, cheer teams…

    As a teacher, I was a proud fan to watch my students and schools (between Middleborough High and the Catholic school that I taught at prior) win a state football championship, a state softball championship, two state baseball titles, a girls state basketball championship and a ice hockey title. Middleborough High won the 2003 state Drama Festival, too!

    There’s nothing that builds up school spirit more than a deep playoff run!

    I was track coach at Coyle and Cassidy in 1991 when I coached the state decathlon champion in track and field!

    Reply

  29. We have calm wind and very large snowflakes falling here – it’s like snow globe snow at the moment.

    Reply

  30. According to Jacob this morning, more sustained cold coming next weekend. His exact words.

    Of course even if we get the sustained cold, as soon as a system heads our way, warm air arrives ahead of it and we rain anyway.

    Only in New England.

    Reply

    1. Sustained cold is really defined over a period of a week or more. Not really 2 days.

      What we have coming behind a clipper system around the 12th & 13th is the next reinforcement of cold air.

      Reply

    1. You can just put “T” there. They don’t use 0.0 in climate statistics once there’s been a trace of snow, which has happened 3 times prior to 12z today.

      I believe the airport may have just recorded their first 0.1 inch, however. They have recorded 0.01 inch melted today. Waiting to verify is that goes down as another T or 0.1 inch.

      Reply

  32. Thanks TK.

    Brightening skies here now but we also had a period of light snow earlier that coated the ground. We have a few small trees that lose their leaves late in the Fall every year and I was going to pull the tractor out today to mow them up with the bagger but that will have to wait till tomorrow. Need to let things melt and dry up a bit.

    Reply

  36. TK, just to clarify, I have NO issue with your use of terms like PV. It’s the hype elsewhere that really gets to me.

    I will admit that very little in life impresses me. Not prone to hyperbole or being overly excited about anything.

    Reply

    1. Yes. I use PV responsibly, because the polar vortex has existed basically since the earth has had a weather-producing atmosphere.

      The media took it and redefined it for their own use, and further from there social media hypesters then destroyed the term. We need to take it back.

      Reply

      1. I never heard of PV until fairly recently and mostly via media. Is that a relatively new term in meteorology?

        TK – Was that term around when you and SAK were students? Or was it called something else?

        Reply

        1. The term has been around since the 1850s (130+ years before we were students). As I said, it’s an old term coined by meteorologists, intended for forecasters use, not intended for the media to grab and poison. They’re not getting forgiven by me. I stand by my feelings on this, rightfully so. I’ll defend my profession always.

          Reply

  37. Today’s weather following the short-term script perfectly. I’ll take it!

    And another score for the RRFS for having the low-top convective snow & rain shower activity correct at over 60 hours, very good on timing and nearly perfect on location. Time to pull the plug on the NAM, which was a failure on this feature and didn’t pick up on it until 12z … TODAY, when it was “in the ballpark” at best, but still not nearly as good as RRFS.

    Reply

  38. Halftime score in the Division 4 Superbowl…

    Tewksbury 28
    Scituate 14

    Scituate’s scores have been two td’s + 1.
    Tewksbury scored a TD +2, two td’s + 1, then a TD late in the half that had a defensive penalty on the PAT, so they went for 2 on the retry, but were denied. Yes it was worth the risk.

    Reply

  39. Thanks, TK. We enjoyed a little “mood snow flurry” earlier today.

    I’ve been wondering: When the “snow?” is in little round white pellets that make noise like sleet, is that graupel? It looked as though the pavement had been salted heavily and evenly, but it hadn’t.

    Reply

    1. Snow pellets are usually graupel, which usually occurs in convective showers. They can occur outside of convection in a similar fashion with the right set-up. Graupel is basically a partially melted clump of snowflakes that has then refrozen and collected rime ice.

      Snow grains, which are also roughly roundish (but not nearly so if you look at them close up) are a different thing, and usually much smaller.

      Reply

      1. Thanks. These were small, but not tiny. I noticed them multiple times during lake effect precipitation in Michigan recently. It was quite cold at the time — is temperature ever a factor (besides size) in telling them apart?

        Reply

  40. LOL while listening to ‘BZ in the car a couple of days ago: The anchor told us that the snow would be mixing with “wet rain” (as I was driving through mixed something), and then said that we would be “sucked into the polar vortex” when Thursday night’s cold air arrived. Given the time I’ve been spending in traffic this week, I appreciated the entertainment!

    Reply

  41. So we had a nice coating of snow here with a couple of brief bursts of some pretty heavy snow!! Really picturesque!!!

    Reply

  42. 12Z Kuchera Snow

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2025120612&fh=378&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    6Z Kuchera Snow

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2025120606&fh=384&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_ne&p=snku_acc-imp&m=gfs

    Not much of a difference there, especially in the Boston Area. Not much at all!!!!!

    Way to go GFS. you hot, steaming pile of dog shit!!!!

    Same holds for the EURO for that crap depicted and posted by Mark(@!#*!@#*(&!*@(&#(*&!@(*#&@!(*&#

    Reply

    1. I’m not putting any faith in 378 & 384 forecast panels on op runs, no matter what model they’re from. 😉

      Reply

    2. Fortunately just 360 hours out on operational runs which means absolutely nothing but comical to see depictions like that a few days before Christmas. We have seen Grinch storms before (aka 2020).

      ….although if you advance that Euro a frame it has a back side band of heavy snow after the storm passes. Those always happen, lol.

      Reply

  43. Last night at 7pm watching our tree lighting while feeling frozen I never thought 19 hours later we would get a quarter of an inch of rain. Felt like a springtime front came through with a quick downpour.

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  44. JPD I saw your post on Taylor’s wedding above.

    June 13 is my oldest grandsons birthday. Makes him feel special. He’s been by the wedding venue (quite a place) and Taylor’s close by home

    Reply

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