Saturday December 6 2025 Forecast (7:49AM)

151 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 6-10)

The pattern during the next 5 days will feature several quick-moving, generally weak low pressure systems to have minor impact overall (in terms of precipitation) but some notable temperature swings with the overall pattern being colder than the long-term average for this point in the season. The first such system is a low pressure area passing well to our south today but its large cloud canopy making it mainly overcast. A northward-extending trough from that low will cause a few snow and rain showers in the region this morning until about midday. The next system will be a clipper-style low passing just to our north Sunday night. This low will have a snow area with it but its track keeps it mainly north of the WHW forecast area, with just a few snow showers occurring mainly to the north of I-90 on Sunday night. Another weakening system flies north of the area Tuesday evening with a remote chance of a snow shower that will favor southern NH with less chance to the south. A slightly more formidable low pressure area, again clipper-style, will head our way via the Great Lakes on Wednesday. The early indications on this are a track to the north, enough to pull milder air into the region making the precipitation, still minor, more likely to be rain showers than snow showers for our region.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered snow showers I-90 region northward and mix / rain showers south of I-90 until midday. Highs 35-42. Wind variable up to 10 MPH becoming mainly W.

TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows 18-25. Wind W up to 10 MPH becoming calm.

SUNDAY: Sun followed by clouds. Highs 34-41. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered snow showers southern NH and northern MA, isolated snow showers to the south. Lows 13-20. Wind shifting to NW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 25-32. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, diminishing.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 8-15. Wind NW under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sun followed by clouds. Highs 28-35. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A snow shower possible favoring southern NH. Lows 20-27. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Increasing chance of mix to rain showers. Highs 38-45. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 11-15)

Reinforced cold arrives to start the period along with wind. Watching one or two clipper-style low pressure areas for mix/snow chances mid period before dry, cold weather returns at end of period.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 16-20)

Guidance trends have been wish-washy the last couple days – basically no help for this period of time. Expectations for indices that tend to control the pattern as well as little use of forecast persistence (old forecast tool I learned as a novice) leads me to not change things too much at this point. I’ll watch for a potential low into the Great Lakes and a brief warm-up, then the region near a battle zone between mild air to the south and cold from Canada, the latter of which probably ends up winning out, and not without a precipitation potential before the end of the period. Lots of time to solve the pattern puzzle here…

151 thoughts on “Saturday December 6 2025 Forecast (7:49AM)”

  4. Good morning and thank you TK

    31 here after low of 27 which was shortly after midnight as the temperature slowly climbed all night long.

    Ocean: 48 (Boston Buoy)

    I think TK described my feelings about the upcoming weather:
    WISHY WASHY!! Not impressed with anything. and the cold, what there is of it, has NO lasting power at all. All this talk of the polar vortex has been a joke as far as I am concerned.
    The cold of yesterday, although cold for sure, was extremely short lived. Polar Vortex, is that all you can do. WIMP!!

    And the parade of clippers, must they ALWAYS pass NORTH of our area. Seems that way, even though on occasion they pass South of us. WHY, oh WHY can’t we have one of those? I guess it’s not in the cards, not yet anyway. We shall see down the road.

    Wordle: 4 I wasted a guess on guess 3. Should have had it in 3 as guess 3 didn’t provide any more information.

    Reply

    1. They are not all going to pass north of the area. The next 3 are. There are several others in the pipeline after that with a pretty strong indication that the track is not going to stay where it will be the next 5 days.

      Reply

    1. Nice! The snow falling looks much like it does here. That’s not surprising since it’s just 11 miles from me.

      Reply

  9. Thank you, TK. A lot warmer last night with a low of 24. Up to 27 with a sugarcoating here also. I like that term.

    Reply

  10. What’s the difference between sugar coating and feather dusting?

    Is sugar coating just a wee bit thicker??? 🙂

    Reply

  13. Thanks TK! My daughter landed in Sydney, Australia this morning where temps have been in low 90s in their late spring. A line of heavy storms had just gone through leading her plane to circle for awhile. Now they have a cool SOUTH wind coming in that will lower temps for the week. She will be there the next 7 months long enough to see Australia play the US in the World Cup. How lucky is she that they ended up in the same pool!

    Reply

        1. Very cool! She will be heading to Perth later this week and she will be staying in Bussleton for three months working Caves Resort

          Reply

  16. Been reading about the Siberian snowpack this year. I have also looked at climatology maps and even watched some videos.

    It looks like the snowpack is advancing more rapidly and sort of more aggressively than it has in a few years. September is often seen as a critical month and the snowpack was growing and moving southward at that point. It continued into October. Sometimes the September-October period gives us an indication of our winter weather in New England which from the looks of it will be colder and snowier.

    A discussion of the Siberian snowpack and its effects could be a lengthy one. The bottom line seems to be a better potential this winter for a more persistent trough in the Midwest and East. With it comes more cold air and volatility.

    TK’s winter outlook was very much an in-depth and thoughtful piece obviously. But I always like to look at the Siberian ingredient.

    Reply

    1. I’ve never been too trusting of this indicator. Siberian snowcover is correlated to the cold are stores up in that region, which is great, but you still need the right pattern to get the cold air in the right place at the right time to result in above normal snowfall for New England. That requires a series of things to line up enough times to say that our reason for the snowier conditions was largely based on how much snow was on the ground in Siberia and when it started to accumulate. To me that’s just not a strong correlation. I think when it was first noted, it was vastly overrated.

      Reply

      2. I would never think of the Siberian snowpack as being a sole reason for snowier winters. That would be ridiculous.

        Reply

  17. Streaming the remaining 4 HS football super bowl games today while I work on my to-do list.

    Game 1, underway now, is the Division 8 Superbowl between Randolph & West Boylston. My pick is Randolph.

    Game 2, Division 4, is Scituate & Tewksbury. Scituate is the #1 seed, but Tewksbury will take the game.

    Game 3, Division 2, Catholic Memorial will defeat Bishop Feehan, IMO.

    The 4th game, the Division 1 match-up between St. John’s Prep and Xaverian Brothers, is the finale of the 3-day series of game. St. John’s is a slight favorite, but I think “The Brothers Xaverian” will take the trophy.

    Good luck to all!

    Reply

  19. Hmmmhmmm. Clipper brigade. I was wondering what to call if. Quick but the second leaving a trace to replace the first thst had pretty much melted

    Reply

  21. Waves of snow showers passing by my location with burst of large festive flakes. I have a time lapse video running to capture some of it from the 3rd floor and a long view to the west.

    Some minor accumulation occurring.

    0.5 inch of new snow has fallen at Fitchburg today.

    Reply

  22. Thanks, TK.

    I echo JP Dave. I was NOT impressed by the short-lived cold. I liked it, but it dissipated so quickly. And while we’ll have some cold days and nights, it does NOT look like December 1980.

    It’s nice to have it feel like winter for a change in December with some below normal temps, but at least here in Boston I am far from impressed (also looking ahead at the immediate and mid-term future). And I really can’t stand the PV and SSW talk which is rampant on social media and so full of overblown hype.

    As far as snow chances in Bostonare concerned, we’ll see. I am not counting on it.

    Reply

    1. Our colder pattern so far this month is a result of a PV stretch.

      The short-lived more intense cold shot was expected to be exactly that – short lived, so it lived up to expectation.

      As far as snow chances, you know I never hype those up. I take each system the correct way, based on how far away the threat is.

      Far fewer surprises (or disappointments for snow lovers) this way. Yet the general population (not this blog’s population – we know better) falls into the hype trap on an annual basis, which I still don’t quite understand, when there’s more sound information available at the fingertips. It’s just a matter of clicking the correct links. 😉

      Reply

      1. Joshua and I have no issues whatsoever on anything you posted on the PV. I for one, was addressing the overall media HYPE bullshit!!! One would think we would have been transported to SIBERIA!!!

        ha ha ha

        It’s Meteorological Winter. Sometimes it get really cold. Big woof.

        Reply

    1. As stated in my discussion, the rain showers are expected well to the south, not in this area. You’ll have snow showers if the precipitation crosses your location.

      Reply

      1. Due to the thermal profile, that is what I was hoping. Don;t even want it to start as rain and that is still a possibility.` Still 38 here.

        Reply

  24. Now up to 38 here. I fear when the precip gets here, it will be in the form of rain, but even so, hopeful it will quickly turn to snow with the Aloft temperatures still cold. We shall see.

    Reply

  27. I am enjoying your MIAA Super Bowl commentary, TK.

    Middleborough High won the 2017 Super Bowl at Gillette. I swear half of the town was in the stands that morning. What an event for the kids, staff, school and community!

    The Krafts make sure the whole week is first-rate and classy for all involved: the players, coaches, refs, bands, cheer teams…

    As a teacher, I was a proud fan to watch my students and schools (between Middleborough High and the Catholic school that I taught at prior) win a state football championship, a state softball championship, two state baseball titles, a girls state basketball championship and a ice hockey title. Middleborough High won the 2003 state Drama Festival, too!

    There’s nothing that builds up school spirit more than a deep playoff run!

    I was track coach at Coyle and Cassidy in 1991 when I coached the state decathlon champion in track and field!

    Reply

  29. We have calm wind and very large snowflakes falling here – it’s like snow globe snow at the moment.

    Reply

  30. According to Jacob this morning, more sustained cold coming next weekend. His exact words.

    Of course even if we get the sustained cold, as soon as a system heads our way, warm air arrives ahead of it and we rain anyway.

    Only in New England.

    Reply

    1. Sustained cold is really defined over a period of a week or more. Not really 2 days.

      What we have coming behind a clipper system around the 12th & 13th is the next reinforcement of cold air.

      Reply

    1. You can just put “T” there. They don’t use 0.0 in climate statistics once there’s been a trace of snow, which has happened 3 times prior to 12z today.

      I believe the airport may have just recorded their first 0.1 inch, however. They have recorded 0.01 inch melted today. Waiting to verify is that goes down as another T or 0.1 inch.

      Reply

  32. Thanks TK.

    Brightening skies here now but we also had a period of light snow earlier that coated the ground. We have a few small trees that lose their leaves late in the Fall every year and I was going to pull the tractor out today to mow them up with the bagger but that will have to wait till tomorrow. Need to let things melt and dry up a bit.

    Reply

  36. TK, just to clarify, I have NO issue with your use of terms like PV. It’s the hype elsewhere that really gets to me.

    I will admit that very little in life impresses me. Not prone to hyperbole or being overly excited about anything.

    Reply

    1. Yes. I use PV responsibly, because the polar vortex has existed basically since the earth has had a weather-producing atmosphere.

      The media took it and redefined it for their own use, and further from there social media hypesters then destroyed the term. We need to take it back.

      Reply

      1. I never heard of PV until fairly recently and mostly via media. Is that a relatively new term in meteorology?

        TK – Was that term around when you and SAK were students? Or was it called something else?

        Reply

        1. The term has been around since the 1850s (130+ years before we were students). As I said, it’s an old term coined by meteorologists, intended for forecasters use, not intended for the media to grab and poison. They’re not getting forgiven by me. I stand by my feelings on this, rightfully so. I’ll defend my profession always.

          Reply

  37. Today’s weather following the short-term script perfectly. I’ll take it!

    And another score for the RRFS for having the low-top convective snow & rain shower activity correct at over 60 hours, very good on timing and nearly perfect on location. Time to pull the plug on the NAM, which was a failure on this feature and didn’t pick up on it until 12z … TODAY, when it was “in the ballpark” at best, but still not nearly as good as RRFS.

    Reply

  38. Halftime score in the Division 4 Superbowl…

    Tewksbury 28
    Scituate 14

    Scituate’s scores have been two td’s + 1.
    Tewksbury scored a TD +2, two td’s + 1, then a TD late in the half that had a defensive penalty on the PAT, so they went for 2 on the retry, but were denied. Yes it was worth the risk.

    Reply

  39. Thanks, TK. We enjoyed a little “mood snow flurry” earlier today.

    I’ve been wondering: When the “snow?” is in little round white pellets that make noise like sleet, is that graupel? It looked as though the pavement had been salted heavily and evenly, but it hadn’t.

    Reply

    1. Snow pellets are usually graupel, which usually occurs in convective showers. They can occur outside of convection in a similar fashion with the right set-up. Graupel is basically a partially melted clump of snowflakes that has then refrozen and collected rime ice.

      Snow grains, which are also roughly roundish (but not nearly so if you look at them close up) are a different thing, and usually much smaller.

      Reply

      1. Thanks. These were small, but not tiny. I noticed them multiple times during lake effect precipitation in Michigan recently. It was quite cold at the time — is temperature ever a factor (besides size) in telling them apart?

        Reply

  40. LOL while listening to ‘BZ in the car a couple of days ago: The anchor told us that the snow would be mixing with “wet rain” (as I was driving through mixed something), and then said that we would be “sucked into the polar vortex” when Thursday night’s cold air arrived. Given the time I’ve been spending in traffic this week, I appreciated the entertainment!

    Reply

  41. So we had a nice coating of snow here with a couple of brief bursts of some pretty heavy snow!! Really picturesque!!!

    Reply

  42. 12Z Kuchera Snow

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2025120612&fh=378&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    6Z Kuchera Snow

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2025120606&fh=384&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_ne&p=snku_acc-imp&m=gfs

    Not much of a difference there, especially in the Boston Area. Not much at all!!!!!

    Way to go GFS. you hot, steaming pile of dog shit!!!!

    Same holds for the EURO for that crap depicted and posted by Mark(@!#*!@#*(&!*@(&#(*&!@(*#&@!(*&#

    Reply

    1. I’m not putting any faith in 378 & 384 forecast panels on op runs, no matter what model they’re from. 😉

      Reply

    2. Fortunately just 360 hours out on operational runs which means absolutely nothing but comical to see depictions like that a few days before Christmas. We have seen Grinch storms before (aka 2020).

      ….although if you advance that Euro a frame it has a back side band of heavy snow after the storm passes. Those always happen, lol.

      Reply

        1. Of course, we are looking at a simulation for over 300 hours into the future.

          I mean let’s see…

          At one point “the models” were calling for a big snowstorm on Thanksgiving Weekend. Nope.

          At one point “the models” had a huge warm-up in the East in early December. Nope.

          At one point the GFS had a moderate snowstorm across the entire region for tomorrow, and that was only 84-96 hours out. Not going to happen.

          Model error amplifies the further out in time you go, and you can add even more to that when you’re dealing with an inferior model. 🙂

          Reply

          1. All of this is completely understood. Mark and I are just having fun with these ridiculous operational runs!!

            I am just sitting back and waiting. Sooner or later something will materialize. 🙂

            Reply

  43. Last night at 7pm watching our tree lighting while feeling frozen I never thought 19 hours later we would get a quarter of an inch of rain. Felt like a springtime front came through with a quick downpour.

    Reply

      1. Yep! That’s why I went for the liquid form down that way.

        Meanwhile we had several periods of mood snow today that I got in a great time lapse video. 🙂

        Reply

        1. Nice! I do think we will see a big snowstorm along the coast once this winter but it’s going to take some time – I am thinking somewhere between last week of January – third week of February. Just a fun guess

          Reply

  44. JPD I saw your post on Taylor’s wedding above.

    June 13 is my oldest grandsons birthday. Makes him feel special. He’s been by the wedding venue (quite a place) and Taylor’s close by home

    Reply

    1. You’re really into HS football. I could care less.

      I’m not even into college football other than BC and they STUNK this year. Only 2 wins. 🙁

      Only one team for me…GO Patriots!!!

      Reply

      1. Yes, I am into HS sports in general. I don’t follow everything, but I follow my old school closely and often follow the football (and to some degree the hockey) pretty closely across the region. I was never much of an athlete in school. I didn’t do school sports (though I was good at bombardment – aka dodge ball – and also gym hockey in phys ed class). But I think it’s important for the kids to learn how to work together, not just in the name of sports but in preparation for life beyond school. So I would never apply the phrase “I couldn’t care less”, even if I wasn’t into the sport itself.

        College football is not a big thing for me, but I do loosely follow it and root for the area schools.

        I watch every highlight reel from every NFL game, but as you know I’m also a big Patriots fan so they are my team.

        Reply

    2. I caught the last few minutes on WATD, 95.9FM, Marshfield.

      I guess Tewksbury was up 2 touchdowns and I think they said this was back to back Super Bowl wins for Scituate.

      Reply

      1. Yes. Tewksbury never really let up, they just were outplayed in the 2nd half and some incredible plays were made. One of the Scituate players made a one handed catch on a long pass that reminded me of what the Washington Commanders player did (forget his name) in the last game they played.

        I picked Tewks to win that game, but they lost by 1. Scituate never gave up so they earned the victory. Tough one to swallow for Tewksbury though as they did play fantastic football too.

        Reply

  46. Amazing how these “snow events” have missed Quincy. Oh well. 😉 I walked to the grocery store and temperatures were nice. Not cold at all. Didn’t even need gloves or my larger coat.

    Reply

    1. This is a snow and rain shower event short of 100% coverage.

      The temperature is milder than yesterday but about “normal” for the date. Without any real wind to speak of it’s going to feel quite mild in a relative sense.

      Reply

  47. The 2026 World Cup draw was yesterday and this afternoon it was announced what games will be played in Foxboro/Gillette:

    June 13: Haiti v. Scotland
    June 16: Norway v. Iraq or Bolivia or Suriname (one team to be decided by a March playoff)
    June 19: Scotland v. Morocco
    June 23: England v. Ghana
    June 26: Norway v. France

    There will be two knockout matches later for a total of seven games in Foxboro.

    Reply

    1. Excellent! I’ll probably watch many of the matches, at the very least in expanded highlight form, depending on my agenda at the time. 🙂

      Reply

    2. The stadium will be changed to BOSTON STADIUM during the games. 🙂

      Too bad there never was a football stadium built actually “IN” Boston proper. Oh well.

      Reply

  48. There was some discussion on how it “felt” outside yesterday. Well, how it feels to an individual is irrelevant to statistics, as it turns out, since Logan, for example, recorded a departure of -18.2F for the calendar day yesterday. That is cold for December 5.

    Logan is at -8.6F for the month-to-date, but that’s only through 5 days, and departures are more likely to be very large the fewer days you have in your sample.

    Reply

      1. Burlington MA had postponed their lighting festival (and fireworks) at the common from Tuesday to Friday because of the storm system in the area on Tuesday. It was bone-chillingly cold out there in the early evening, but the saving grace was it was nearly calm. Good thing it wasn’t postponed to Thursday when the wind gusts were in the 25-35 MPH range.

        Reply

    1. That was south of me, but I could see a bit of color on those mid level clouds down there – not enough for a good picture this time, but I got a stunner of a sunset here the other day.

      Reply

  51. CPC 6-10: Temps below normal. Precip below normal.
    CPC 8-14: Temps below normal. Precip below normal.
    CPC Week 3-4: Temps near normal. Precip above normal.

    Remember, these are rough outlooks and do not tell anything about individual events.

    Examples of what not to fall for…

    Below normal temp does not equate to above normal snow.
    Above normal temps (which are not in these forecasts) does not equate to below normal snow.

    Those are temperature forecasts, not precipitation ones, just as precipitation forecasts have nothing to do with temperature.

    It’s important to understand the meaning of these outlooks and not misinterpret what they actually represent.

    Reply

      1. Below normal temps & below normal precipitation in December would indicate a general idea of cold and dry, but read my caveats – don’t skip over those lines.

        Reply

        1. Wasn’t the period during the 2015 Snow Blitz technically COLDER than average with precip BELOW average? As I recall, most of those big snow storms were high ratio events with lots of snow with not all that much qpf. I think one time we got 16 inches of snow on 0.6 inch qpf. If I am correct, this would be a dramatic example of what you are saying.

          Reply

          1. The precipitation ended up around normal for that period overall, but the snowfall was WELL ABOVE normal, which is essentially the same thing as below normal precip and above normal snowfall. I say things like this all the time out on the internet, but it doesn’t really stick. Too many assumptions are made that can fall flat very easily.

            The other funny thing about the 2015 snow blitz was that the NAO was positive the entire time, you know, that phase that’s supposed to lead to below normal snowfall in the winter. 😉

            Reply

  52. On my winter outlook, I declared that the IOD (Indian Ocean Dipole) index would hang around its neutral phase and not be a huge factor.

    However, this may be the first wrinkle in that outlook. There has been a strong tendency in recent days for the IOD to lean negative, which means increased convection in the eastern Indian Ocean and expanding across Indonesia into the Philippines. This activity can act to strengthen the Pacific jet stream, and may be what some of the guidance is starting to key on when showing a “less cold” trend for the eastern US heading toward Christmas. Now let’s keep in mind, this is many days into the future, but what I’m talking about is the current conditions that may be resulting in the guidance trend to what we’ve seen for that period. Does it happen exactly like this? Time will tell.

    Additionally, there are some signs of another PV stretch around the same time, maybe oriented similarly to the current one, which puts the core of the cold that reaches the Lower 48 in the Upper Midwest, Great Lakes, and Northeast. This sets up a potential battle zone with New England on the colder side of it. Again, don’t read into this too much. It’s one potential result of a pattern I’m not even sure is going to come to fruition yet, but I wanted to alert you to what I was looking at way out there in the medium range…

    Reply

      1. The wrinkle that is going to make snow lovers nervous but may actually end up being a benefit for getting snow in New England …………………………… oh the irony.

        Reply

          1. There ya go. The 18z GFS op run delivers an 8-15 inch snowstorm to Boston, South Shore, Cape Cod, Islands on December 14.

            Too bad it’s the GFS and an op run outside of 4 days. 😉

            Reply

  53. Roads somewhat damp from the early afternoon rain.

    The winds are light and there are some breaks in the clouds.

    My car temp was 35F. Low levels are moist with ground fog around.

    Some concern for icy spots here and there.

    Reply

  55. If I recall correctly I believe that it was December 1981 or 1983 it was a damp and warm Christmas Eve temperatures in the fifties than an Arctic front moved through. If memory serves me correctly I don’t think the temperature got above ten degrees for a few days.

    Reply

  56. From Meteorologist Steve DiMartino
    I will say this about the data and the question of snow. There is so much unfolding in the atmosphere right now from changes in ENSO (tanking SOI), the MJO, and the stratosphere; I don’t feel that the operational nor AI guidance has a good handle on what is evolving for the rest of December. I personally am not letting my guard down and hyper-focusing on 7 days at a time

    Reply

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