Sunday January 11 2026 Forecast (7:40AM)

100 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 11-15)

Out goes our rain event early this morning, to be followed by a dry-out on an increasing westerly wind. Colder air will be filtering into the region behind departing low pressure, and a secondary trough can produce a few late-day or early-night mix to snow showers. High pressure advances toward the region Monday and Tuesday with dry weather. We’re still in the squeeze-play between it and low pressure in Atlantic Canada Monday with a gusty breeze, but this diminishes as the high is closer by Tuesday, then pushing offshore Wednesday at which time we get into a milder southwesterly air flow with more moisture and therefore more cloud cover. A trough and cold front approaches the coast Wednesday night and Thursday with cloudy and showery weather, with rain favored over snow due to the milder air in place. However once we reach late Thursday and Thursday night, a surface front will have passed by and odds favor snow over rain. What is to be determined is whether we see this precipitation in more spotty, showery fashion, or a more organized area of it in response to low pressure developing on the frontal boundary as it moves offshore. That question will be answered as the evolution becomes more clear.

TODAY: Cloudy with lingering showers into mid morning. Clouds break late morning. A sun / cloud mix afternoon with a chance of a late-day mix / snow shower mainly west of I-95. Highs 40-47 in the morning, falling into the 30s afternoon. Wind variable 5-15 MPH shifting to W increasing to 15-25 MPH with higher gusts during the afternoon.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Chance of snow showers early. Lows 21-28. Wind W 15-25 MPH, gusts 30-45 MPH, strongest in higher elevations.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 33-40. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 19-26. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 35-42. Wind W 5-15 MPH, diminishing.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 25-32 evening, may rise overnight. Wind shifts to SW up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly to mostly cloudy. Highs 41-48. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 36-43. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain showers during the day and a chance of snow showers at night. Highs 42-49. Wind S 5-15 MPH shifting to NE late-day.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 16-20)

Odds favor additional storm development too far east for major impact, but there is a chance of snow showers early January 16 before drier air moves back in. Next trough and front brings a chance of mix and snow showers mid period with fair weather following that. This outlook is low confidence due to many moving parts to the pattern and resultant weather, so check updates.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 21-25)

Colder pattern, and perhaps a better shot of a more significant storm system during this period of time, but still a lot to figure out about the pattern and eventual sensible weather details.

100 thoughts on “Sunday January 11 2026 Forecast (7:40AM)”

  4. Good morning and thank you TK.

    38 here .

    Ocean: 42

    Wordle: 4. Almost got totally away from me. Very happy with my 4. Difficult word today, imho.

    Reply

  5. Thank you TK.

    37F here and I might be down 2 degrees since walking the shore earlier.

    When you forecasted 15-25 mph sustained winds, were you looking at a particular model(s)?

    Reply

    1. I look at most (or all) of them, but no particular one triggered that forecast. It was just the overall feel. We’ll be toward the lower side of the 15-25 range for sustained wind in most areas with the upper limit reserved for places like Cape Cod and the top of Blue Hill, etc.

      Reply

    1. Thank you. Tough word, I think. We shall see what others come up with. Perhaps not as tough as I thought????

      5 may be pretty good for today. We shall see.

      On the other hand SClarke may get it in 2 or 3. 🙂

      Reply

      1. 🙂

        I really thought that I had it in 2 because all letters were correct except for the last one!

        There was only one possibility after that, so I got it in 3.

        Reply

        2. Same issue with me on guess 3. Got it in 4. I was not even sure it was a word but it was as the only last letter that seemed to work.

          Reply

      1. Enjoy. I’ll have a fun supper and a couple of easy munchies while watching. It is something Mac and I always did so I like to continue. Just on a much smaller scale

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  10. Last night AJ was talking about “Potential” SNOW for Thursday night/Friday. He had 2 tracks, one closer to shore (more snow) and one more off shore (less snow or no snow).

    Both GFS and EURO have about 3-6 inches for then.

    GFS Kuchera

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2026011106&fh=135&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    EURO 10:1

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=sn10_acc-imp&rh=2026011100&fh=144&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    Reply

  11. Thanks TK !

    Wordle: 6

    2 entertaining playoff games yesterday. Credit yo the Bears, while acknowledging the Packers played about as bad a 2nd half as one can. All 3 phases: offense, defense and special teams.

    The Cubs way overpaid for Bregman at 32 yrs old. It will hurt in the short term, but is a win for the Sox a few seasons from now.

    Reply

    1. I’ll be watching one of them. Can you guess which one?

      I “may” peek in on the Bills game, maybe, but even if so, will not watch the whole game.

      Reply

    2. The Jaguars, 49ers, and Patriots will be your winners today.

      Yes, the play the games for a reason, but those are my predictions. 🙂

      Got both right yesterday. Let’s see if the table-run can continue. It’s not highly likely……..

      Reply

        2. The set-up late week is very complex. But complex does not always translate to “big storm”. There are 2 significant disturbances very close together that complicate the evolution, and of all the global models currently operating, the GFS’s shortcomings will likely make its solution the strangest of all. This is based on observing this model do this with somewhat similar setups over many months.

          I was discussing this potential with a colleague. It’s one of those set-ups that can result in a very uneven impact swath. You can get 1 or 2 or 3 areas that get a moderate snowfall, and areas in between that see little impact at all, or several variations around this idea.

          We can look at all the model runs we want, and the weenies on the internet can pick out the ones that show the scenario they most want and glorify it, but none of that matters. What matters is what the actual weather pattern delivers, and its impact via sensible weather. Nobody knows those details yet, but the meteorologists will be the first to figure it out.

          I can tell you that so far, based on meteorology, I lean toward offshore action over coastal action for the 15th / 16th, and a glorified frontal passage for the 17th / 18th time frame. But these are leanings, not high confidence forecasts. As I stated, this is a complex set-up coming, especially for the opening threat.

          Reply

  14. Thanks, TK!

    39 is our current temperature.
    A decent 0.49″ in overnight showers.

    SSK, if you don’t mind me asking, how is your wife doing?

    Reply

  15. I will certainly be watching the Bills game. They and the Broncos are only teams standing in the way of the Patriots trip to the SB imo anyway.

    Wouldn’t the Patriots play the winner of the Bills-Jaguars?

    Reply

    1. My understanding is;
      They will play the Jags if the Jags win, but they will NOT play the Bills if the Bills win. I heard this somewhere on Sports radio,
      But I have no clue if that is correct or not.

      Reply

    2. Depends on who wins. If Jags win, Pats would host them. I think if the Bills win, then Pats would host the winner of the Monday night game, Texans or Steelers.

      Reply

    3. Any team that the Pats can face potentially “stand in the way”. There are no opponents that are automatic wins just as their are none that are automatic losses. This is why they play the games.

      It is ALL to-be-determined until the games are complete.

      Reply

  18. Can’t wait for all the playoff games tonight. Hate that one of them is on fox because I’ll have to use “stream east” to watch it, which is annoying when I pay so much money for cable. These disputes between companies is so infuriating.

    Reply

  19. the 500mb vort energy is like whack a mole. What pieces of energy becomes dominant and when do they merge. Right now it makes a big storm for Novia Scotia something thats seems to be on repeat

    Reply

    1. Not going to be a big storm here, that’s almost a certainty at this point. We wait and we wait and we wait, then it will be Spring and done. 🙂 🙂 🙂

      Reply

  20. The last big snowstorm for Boston was on January 29, 2022 or 1,406 days ago. ❄️

    I believe it was somewhere either side of 24 inches. I walked home late that night from work.

    Reply

  21. The snowstorm that breaks Boston’s 6 inch snowfall drought could very well take place inside 384 hours and is likely not “seen” as that type of system by any guidance yet.

    Model error increases the further away you go from initialization.

    Reply

  23. Thanks TK.

    We are heading to the Patriots game tonight and I am going to be dressing like we are going skiing. I dont mind sitting out in 30 degree temps but when the wind gets involved its brutal.

    Reply

    2. I think many of us skiers that go to football games in the cold do that haha. Did the same last week when I went. I could’t afford doing a playoff game way to expensive and well I rather use that money for skiing haha

      Reply

    3. You won’t regret it Mark. I did the same a few weeks ago when they played the Bills and was glad I did. I plan on doing the same tonight. I will be up in 310 feeling the breeze, lol.

      Reply

  26. 12z Euro has three snow events….Friday, next Sunday and the weekend of 1/25. None of them are huge events but we end up with double digits snows by the end of the run. The Friday threat is a weird storm evolution similar to the GFS where most of the energy ends up off shore.

    And FWIW, these are pretty much the same storm threat periods shown on the 12z GFS.

    Reply

          1. According to Google Gemini:

            As of Sunday, January 11, 2026, it has been 1,417 days since Boston last recorded 6 inches or more of snow in a single calendar day.
            The last time Boston (Logan Airport) reached this threshold was on February 25, 2022, when the city recorded 8.5 inches of snow.
            The Long Snow Drought
            Boston is currently in the midst of a historic “snow drought” regarding major single-day accumulations. While there have been smaller snow events in 2024 and 2025, none have crossed the 6-inch mark.

            Reply

            1. More…

              Context & Records
              • The Previous Record: Before this current streak, the longest Boston went without a 6-inch snowfall was roughly 1,019 days. We surpassed that mark in late 2024. 
              • Recent Winters: The 2022-23 and 2023-24 seasons were among the least snowy two-winter stretches in the city’s recorded history.
              • Single-Storm vs. Single-Day: While a “storm” might drop 6 inches over two days, the official record for a single calendar day hasn’t hit that mark since early 2022.
              Would you like me to look up the current winter’s total snowfall for Boston to see how it compares to average?

              Reply

            2. This is Google AI. Very close to yours

              As of January 11, 2026, it has been 1,416 days since Boston officially recorded at least 6 inches of snow in a single day.
              The last time Boston hit this threshold was on February 25, 2022, when the city received 8.5 inches of snow.

              Reply

  28. It would be hilarious if Boston got a snowstorm of 11.5″ with 5.75″ before midnight and 5.75″ after midnight. Using calendar days seems like a bad idea.

    Reply

    1. The state climatologist that I used to work with did things by the book but he also was very adamant on keeping track of specific events.

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    1. 21, 27, and 31 I think were my 3 January dates for Boston to break the 6 inch snow drought on my New Year’s Day “predictions”. 🙂

      Reply

  31. NWS’s leaning very close to my ideas for the next 2 systems.

    January 14-16: Mild with rain showers to start, transition to a period of snow or snow showers, most action offshore.

    January 17-18: Relatively quick-hitting glorified frontal passage. Might have a very quickly-moving, intensifying low on it, but that type of set-up is not typically a big winter weather producer. It’s brief-hitting.

    What’s the reason? There are several. One of the big ones continues to be lack of help from the MJO, which emerges from the circle of death in phase 6. After this it moves into Phases 7, 8, and eventually 1 over the next 3 weeks. The good news for winter weather lovers is those are favorable phases. The bad news is that the strength of MJO looks weak to borderline moderate, limiting its “help” for the pattern still.

    Reply

          1. That actually doesn’t show anything. We’re running colder than normal this winter and we used to get these along the south side of the house when I was a kid in the 1970s.

            Reply

      2. The interception was off the hands of Jacobi Meyers (former Patriot)!

        Should he have made the catch? Or was it just out of his reach?

        Reply

  35. Re: Dandelions (and other weed-like plants/flowers, as well as crocuses). They can appear at any time during the winter, especially in warmer locations – near a building, south side of structure. We used to see these along the front porch of our house every month of the year when I was a kid (1970s and 1980s) and still do occasionally now.

    The ground at the sites of the seed germination needs to be mainly snowless and not completely frozen, which is also common along sides of buildings with more sunshine.

    If they haven’t appeared in an area like that previously, it’s simply because there were no seeds located there to allow them to grow. 🙂 #AgriculturalMeteorology

    Reply

  37. Thanks, TK.

    I remember long stretches of relatively little snow, especially in the 70s. Of course 1978 was different. But there were some meager winters in terms of snow that decade. I wasn’t here in the 1980s. But I did visit during the holidays. I remember some snow events then and certainly plenty of cold.

    I wish all winters were like 92-93, 95-96, 2010-2011, and 2014-2015. Alas, Boston is not Quebec City.

    Reply

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