DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 24-28)
An arctic cold front went through our region last night. Some you may have heard the wind gusts in the 35 to 45 MPH range. Some of you may, mainly northwest of Boston, saw a snow shower prior to midnight (I did). If you step outside this morning or any time today you will feel the deep chill of air delivered from far north of our area and it will be accompanied by wind, making it feel even colder during the day today. As the wind relaxes we’ll be in for a frigid night, but high clouds that start to filter the sunshine today will thicken up tonight ahead of an approaching winter storm. This system is a low pressure area elongating and redeveloping to our south, taking a track close to and possibly just north of the 40N/70W “benchmark” Sunday night into Monday, with the remains of the primary low following it up Monday. Result: An extended bout of precipitation, falling as snow across a great majority of the region. Complication: The track of the surface low allows some warmer air to intrude aloft, and as of early this morning a couple of short range models disagree on the degree of warming aloft, and resultant mix with sleet (and even potential change to rain briefly). One brings sleet to the South Coast / Cape Cod, but that’s the extent of it. The other brings the sleet area as far north as about Plymouth and more extensively along the South Coast, and a period of liquid rain to Cape Cod and the Islands. Right now I’m leaning to a compromise between the two solutions, with sleet more than just right on the South Coast, but not quite to Plymouth, and any rain at all being confined to Nantucket for a brief period of time. The other aspect of the storm to consider is a probable coastal front along near the eastern coastline, and where this sets up results in a little snowfall enhancement just to its west and slightly higher water content snow to its east. This may end up as far west as the I-95 belt, but is more likely to run from near Cape Ann to Boston to the MA South Shore or just inland from there, to west of the Cape Cod Canal. I’ll watch for that. During Monday, the passage of the back end of the low pressure area results in a wind shift and colder air anyway. Another wild card is a potential mid level slot of dry air that would cut some of the precipitation off south of I-90 and lessen amounts somewhat. But these areas would see additional snow showers on Monday. Obviously, with not much time to go, there are still some aspects of this short-term forecast to fine-tune. Behind this system comes more cold weather, though not as cold as our current air mass. Fair weather is expected Tuesday and a disturbance may bring a few snow showers to the region on Wednesday.
TODAY: Sun becomes filtered through increasing high clouds. Highs 12-19. Wind WNW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill below 10 at times.
TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 3-10. Wind N 5-15 MPH, diminishing.
SUNDAY: Overcast. Snow arrives southwest to northeast between mid morning and early afternoon. Temperatures slowly rise to 18-25. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH except 15-25 MPH Cape Cod by late-day.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Snow, heavy at times through midnight, tapering off in intensity overnight. Snow may mix with or change to sleet near the South Coast especially Cape Cod and a slight chance of a period of rain at Nantucket. Temperatures steady 18-25 but can rise to 26-33 South Coast / Cape Cod and potentially as far north as the MA South Shore. Wind NE 15-25 MPH Cape Cod / Islands, NE to N 5-15 MPH elsewhere.
MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Lingering snow or flurries. Total storm accumulation expectation is 10 to 16 inches, but pockets of 16 to 22 inches are likely, and areas of under 10 inches are possible mainly Cape Cod / Islands, pending the impact of potential sleet (and rain that would be most likely on Nantucket). Temperatures remain generally steady or fall slightly. Wind N to NW 10-20 MPH, a few higher gusts.
MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. A lingering snow flurry possible. Lows 12-18. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.
TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 22-29. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 8-15. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of snow showers. Highs 23-30. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 29 – FEBRUARY 2)
Watching for the next potential storm in the January 31 to February 2 time frame. Temperatures below normal.
DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 3-7)
Another potential winter weather threat around February 5 in a still active and cold weather pattern.
Thanks TK
I am going to be packing my patience at the grocery store today.
Good luck. I’m hearing shelves are getting empty around here
I try not to go to a grocery store the day before a storm but sometimes I have done it. Good luck!
Thank you. I am hoping with those wind chills forecasted to stay below zero today most people went yesterday after they got out of work.
Thanks TK.
1,429 ❄️
Hopefully my next-to-last count.
Boston Mayor Michelle Wu is having a press conference at 10:00 AM on all local tv stations.
Not certain about radio.
Healy has asked folks to stay off the road and work from home….nonessential folks that is. I have to believe all schools will be closed. I wouldn’t send my child if open anyway
Thank you TK.
I believe I bottomed out at 4F.
I believe it was 6F in Boston.
Make that 5F.
-2 here now. Otherwise nice summary day LOL
I think your count will stop.
Will see if there are any reports of thundersnow with this upcoming storm system.
Thank you, TK. We are at our low of 1 degree
Good morning all.
I went to Market Basket in Hanover this am. They opened at 7:00 and I was there at 7:20… the parking lot was jam packed – even the overflow parking lot was jam packed. I figured it being early plus the brutal temps outside would make people wait but nope! I was only in there for three items.
The most popular item? Jugs of water by far. Everyone had gallon jugs of water.
Best time to shop: Sunday morning just a few hours before the snow’s arrival. Stores will be deserted.
But shelves might be empty.
My son went to Wegmans in Westwood last night and sent pics of empty shelves!!@!
My oldest heading to hannaford tomorrow am. They will have a shipment tonight
Stopped at S&S in Cohasset around 6 pm on our way home from Scituate. It wasn’t crowded at all but the shelves were pretty bare (especially meat, veggies and baked goods).
I need to pick up some bananas, turkey and cheese at our local Whole Foods in JP.
Was thinking of going now, but thanks to your post, I’ll wait. Either noonish or tomorrow morning.
They will be out , I’d honestly go now
I was there last night around 6:30 & I normally go there & it was jammed . Got to previties in Hanover at 8 this morning & was jammed when I left .
I saw the too excited to sleep comments on yesterday’s blog. I seem to be in that group. Yep. It was 3;00ish before I fell asleep and it wasn’t a great sleep. And I’m awake at 8:00….a time I rarely see any more
Haha, sorry you’re awake so early! Personally I love being an early bird. I’m usually up by 5am to get ready to run. When I tell you the wind was brutal on my most recent run… it was the worst. Just absolute bitter cold. Thankfully I’m geared up against it!
I was an early bird my entire life. Now I like being awake till midnight or after. It’s a lovely quiet time.
Good morning and thank you TK
5 here this morning
Ocean; 41
storm:
6z Euro has upped the ante. Qpf across a wide area of Eastern MA at 1.5 to 1.75 inches. AT 10:1 that is 15 to 17.5 inches. We know for at least part of the event ratio will be higher. Just using a conservative overall 12;1 would give 18 to 21 inches or so.
Waiting on 12z suite
Wordle: 4
Nice 4. I had two choices for guess 4 and chose the wrong one so…. Wordle 5
5 is good. I tried yet another new starting word and got 1st letter. Next guess and I had 1st 2 letters, 3rd guess 1st 3 letters. 4th guess yielded the word.
Awesome.
It’s a biggie, you should be excited. This cold and the snow rates tomorrow from say 5- midnight should be great.
I was thrilled to see a jump in Qpf from 6z euro. Wonder what 12z runs will show????
Good job with the 4 on Wordle. At first I thought you got a 5, but that was the temperature!
I got Wordle in 5 with a morning temperature of -1. Don’t confuse those two numbers 🙂
Good 5
Great 5. Glad to share the 5 car with you.
I was sitting at the coast on the border of Lynn & Swampscott for a bit earlier to watch sunrise. It was very cold but very nice. I wasn’t outside for too long. Wind was light at the time, making it easier to take in 3 layers with a heavy hooded sweatshirt over a fleece jacket over a cotton shirt. But again, I was only out of the car for several minutes. Minor arctic sea smoke. Usually see more of that if the wind is stronger.
I may have passed you while walking! i was there at 6:30ish.
I got there a little closer to 7. I’d like to make that trip a bit more often.
I am very loyal to Hampton and sometimes Salisbury for sunrises, but that area is closer for when I can’t leave as early. And I haven’t done nearly as much of this as I would have liked during the past 2 years between mom’s decline and passing, and two autoimmune flare-ups in as many years for me.
We were at Hampton for the big warm-up on Thursday. It was wonderful with the snow and sand.
As a bonus, there was a Snowy Owl on the jetty. There were quite a few professional photographers there who were also doing a good job keeping people and dogs at a respectful distance from the owl.
FWIW,
I am sticking with my 15-20 inches from yesterday.
I could be in the jackpot zone.
Think that’s a very sound, reasonable range 🙂
🙂
Thanks TK !
Wordle: 4
Good yay Tom. I have coffee brewing for us. Welcome to the 4 car.
Nice!
Thank you both ! Coffee sounds good, I’ll bring bagels 🙂
I love bagels!!! thanks
Nice Tom
Just realized I inadvertently erased my blurb about the coastal front in my discussion, but I added it back in.
Basically the same thing I said in yesterday’s comments about it anyway.
🙂
00z HRRR
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=lgtden&rh=2026012412&fh=33&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=lgtden&rh=2026012412&fh=33&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
Yup !
2-3, maybe a 4” rate in 1 hr, btwn 5 and 8 pm, from SW CT to NE Mass, accordingly.
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=700tadv&rh=2026012412&fh=33&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=700tadv&rh=2026012412&fh=36&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
Don’t get me wrong, it will have snowed moderately prior to this, but that 5-8pm window might be special for thundersnow, snowfall intensity and how much falls in a 1-3 hr period.
Most interesting.
Pete B. Was taking about 3 inch per hour rates. I’ll believe it when I see it. 🙂
And I get that because it doesn’t happen often.
The ingredients, so many of them, are there in full presence this go around.
Would be way cool to see that.
Thanks TK! About to do a 5 mile run like my days in Minnesota. Triple layer day. Will be interesting to see where coastal front sets up – I remember the days of living in southern Long Island that sleet would be predicted and never really materialize until the very end and we would get walloped anyway.
1st of the 12Z runs is out, the HRRR
Here is the Kuchera Snow as of 7AM Monday. Back side just getting going at that time, so there could be additional snow.
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2026012412&fh=48&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
Is it my computer or connection that is the problem as I notice that Pivotal Weather is AWFULLY SLOW!!!!!!!
Or is the site just overwhelmed because of the storm?
I think you nailed why.
to confirm, are you seeing the same slowness? thanks
No, but I’ve experienced it other times.
I just found that I was experiencing some internet connection issues. I “think” I just fixed it.
Thank you.
Good !! 🙂
Lots of us looking at the data!!
12Z HRRR Lightning for 21Z tomorrow (4PM)
https://ibb.co/pjgbysSf
I Know Tom posted this earlier, but it was from the 0Z hRRR.
This is the most current. 🙂
Thanks, TK!
A slow climb to 6 from an low of 4.
Wind Chill Index is -8 with gusts to 28.
* a low
We just rose all the way up to 6. 🙂
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=700fgen&rh=2026012412&fh=30&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=700fgen&rh=2026012412&fh=33&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
Nam may be 3 hrs faster than the HRRR, ok, but the signal for this is loud and clear so far amongst the short range models.
And what it deposits over 6 hrs, from SW to NE, as it moves through.
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=sn10_006h-imp&rh=2026012412&fh=36&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
6-9 inches of snow in 6 hrs.
Avgs to 1 to 1.5 inches per hr, but I think it will be more like …… .5, .75, 1.2, 3.2, 1.5, .5 each individual hr.
Ahh perhaps. We shall see tomorrow.
Big woof, an inch an hour!
Did you see, in the made up example, the hr with 3.2 ? lol.
I did. I was looking at the overall rate for the period. 🙂
🙂 🙂 🙂
Well, well, well!!! Looks like the 12Z NAM has decided to play ball and has upped the ante significantly on the snowfall!!!
Waiting for more panels to post the results.
I noticed that, the further increases.
I think the short range models are factoring in better that 700 mb and 850 mb frontogenesis and warm air advection impressive feature and because we’re getting closer, doing a better job accounting for just how much snow that could produce.
agree
That’s because it’s the 12km NAM at 24 hours.
It makes the same errors every time.
12Z 3KM NAM brings the freakin sleet CLOSE to Boston@!)(#*@()*#
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam4km&p=ref1km_ptype&rh=2026012412&fh=39&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam4km&p=qpf_003h-imp&rh=2026012412&fh=36&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
.4 melted projection over a 3 hr period from 5-8 pm on this model.
Tomorrow late afternoon into early evening looks to be nuts !!
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam4km&p=sn10_006h-imp&rh=2026012412&fh=36&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
Corresponding projected snowfall, in 3 hrs !!!!!
5-8 pm tomorrow. Wow !!!!
My bad, that’s 6 hrs, sorry, but still.
But the melted QPF, 1st link, that IS 3 hrs.
In a cold winter airmass, that’s quite impressive. .4 melted, in 3 hrs !!!
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam4km&p=pwat&rh=2026012412&fh=36&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
I have to wonder what % of normal, above 100%, these precipitable water values are?
Ho hum in July, but when the temp is 12 and the dp is 10F and the column is very cold?
12Z NAM total event Kuhcera Snow
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2026012412&fh=63&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
12Z 3KM NAM total event Kuchera Snow
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam4km&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2026012412&fh=60&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
Even with the sleet this baby delivers
Yes, because even in a model like this, a milder upper level scenario, they all have that front and component of the tremendous frontogenesis at 700 and 850 mb tomorrow evening.
For me, that’s becoming the story of this event. Tomorrow evening and that feature. Destined to give everyone snowfall totals that will make 99% of people happy, whether there’s brief sleet mid system or even a bit of a lull.
The 1% are the people who don’t want this much snow 🙂 🙂 🙂
Yes, indeed!
looks to be something tomorrow.
Can we get to 2 feet? That’s what I want to see. Likely to fall a bit short,but nothing shabby about an 18 inch snow storm!!!!
The first 3 12Z models in confirm a reasonable range of
15-20 inches. Perhaps it should even be 18-21 inches or any other number in the area. Makes little difference.
According to the Longshot AI Snowstorm Supermarket Forecast Model, you should go very early tomorrow AM to a large chain market that is likely to be more heavily stocked than smaller stores. It is already too late for today.
I’ll keep that in Mind. Thank you. Instead of trying our local Whole Foods in JP, I’ll hit the very LARGE Whole Foods in Dedham tomorrow AM as soon as I eat breakfast. I should be in reasonable shape then.
I HOPE any way. Just need 3 items is all. Otherwise, I am all set.
Even have a new snow shovel and plenty of ice/snow melt. 🙂
I thought I posted this, if I did, sorry for the duplicate, but
here is the NWS snowfall map
https://www.weather.gov/images/box/winter/StormTotalSnow.jpg
18 inches for Boston. That “may” possibly be a bit under done.
Time will tell. In any case, pretty reasonable.
12z RRFS A
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rrfs_a&p=700tadv&rh=2026012412&fh=36&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
For 8pm tomorrow night
Cool !! It projects 1 hr QPF
Lots of .2 in the area in 1 hr in that 8-9 pm timeframe
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rrfs_a&p=qpf_001h-imp&rh=2026012412&fh=37&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
And the lightning signal
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rrfs_a&p=lgtden&rh=2026012412&fh=37&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
I wish it were tomorrow evening already !!!!
And yes, it’s signals sleet fairly far north, but that’s after the major thump has done its thing.
MLB All Stars Brent Rooker and Mike Trout with some back and forth on X about the storm.
Brent Rooker © @Brent Rooker25 • 1d
People are straight up at each others throats over
the northern shift of the system and the GFS vs
Euro model! It’s absolute mayhem in these weather
streets!
Mike Trout @ @MikeTrout • 1h
If the model gives there town more snow it’s the
one they use if it shows any mixing or less
accumulations ya throw it out ….I’m guilty of it
too….
Brent Rooker & @Brent Rooker25 • 32m
Dude it is wild the difference. Some still have us
for like 2+ feet of snow but most have shifted to
basically all of the precipitation just being sleet
and frozen rain.
That’s great !!
TK says to watch the RRFS A’s performance.
It’s got the sfc low north of Nantucket.
Oh, it’s still a cold system with a ton of snow.
It’s going that, I think, because it’s upper features are the furthest north of the 12z suite so far.
Anyhow, I’ll be curious to see if this verifies or it’s too far north ….. take note of that and bring that success or non-success result to its simulations of future systems down the road.
Going that = guessing that.
12Z RRFSA shuts off precip between 2 and 3 AM Monday
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2026012412&fh=44&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_ne&p=ref1km_ptype&m=rrfs_a
Tom I shared your FB post about 5-8 tomorrow night. It is the time my daughter and granddaughter travel to and from thr barn. And unfortunately thr horse has coliced the last three nights. Colic is extremely dangerous for horses so they need to check her.
I hope the horse will be alright.
Safe travels to them.
I think the good news, I would hope, is that we’ve been talking about snow on Sunday and a lot of it, for days and the pats game will be in the 4th qtr, so hopefully, outside of plows, they will encounter very empty roads.
Thank you !
Michelle Wu is speaking now.
Now she’s going over her entire speech in Spanish.
Decided not to ski today, to much of the mountain is close and not worth the ticket price, some of my favorite terrain is closed all day. Stinks I am not skiing but its just not worth it. Might do some skiing tomorrow morning. Vicki we are staying at MountainView about 10 minutes away from the mountain. They are privately individually owned apartments for variable stay periods Kitchen, wifi, etc. very nice has a suana pool and hot tub as well. I spent a good amount of time in that hot tub yesterday evening. We are here tomorrow as well but heading home tomorrow. Were planning on stopping to watch the game but I might be listening to it on the radio.
Boston public schools and libraries closed Monday.
12Z ICON entire event Kuchera Snow. DELIVERS 2 feet to some areas.
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=icon&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2026012412&fh=66&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
My guess is the RRFS A is too north of an upper feature solution.
The GFS/ICON slightly too south of an upper air solution.
I’m guessing something in which really only affects sleet at the end of the front end massive thump and how dramatic and long a lull is south of the mass pike.
Both scenarios deliver a huge dump of snow up front.
If the RRFS A does verify, then yes, perhaps just south of Plymouth west to just south of providence etc, don’t quite get to 12” due to a change to sleet and a lull.
I’d send that line another 20 miles south.
Something in between.
12Z RRFSA Kuchera snow, also delivers 2 feet to some areas
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rrfs_a&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2026012412&fh=61&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
Can we up the totals to 18-24 inches?
RDPS isn’t out yet and it usually is by now. Don’t know what’s up with that?????
12Z HRWFV3 Kuchera snow
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrwfv3&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2026012412&fh=60&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
At hour 60, 7PM MOnday, still a bit of Back end thump/Norlun type feature:
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrwfv3&p=ref1km_ptype&rh=2026012412&fh=60&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
The 12Z 3KM NAM map that JPD posted above is exactly what JR showed late last night with the sleet line almost up to Boston.
Today’s Ch. 7 snow maps are back as they were earlier yesterday and the Boston amounts even went up a bit. Over a foot compared to JR’s “exact” foot. I feel considerably better now.
Again, sorry for my late night rant. 🙂
Philip, we are family. Rants are always fine. That’s why we are all here
Thanks Vicki. That means a lot. 🙂
Thanks, TK.
Nice discussion from the NWS
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=BOX&issuedby=BOX&product=AFD&format=ci&version=1&highlight=off&glossary=1
7F now.
Yay !
Our youngest turns 18 today. Both our kids are officially adults.
Lots to do, sneaking in a morning brunch for family tomorrow morning so a few will be able to get home. Dinner gathering for my daughter with her friends tonight.
Cake to get and a few other things too 🙂 🙂 🙂
My Youngest is 47!!! Oldest is 53!!!
I am OLD!!!!!
A bit older than I am. Oldest to youngest is 46, 42, 40
Oldest grand is 18. Oh my.
🙂
My daughter is 35.
My son is 26.
I’m 58, but I feel 28 when I’m healthy. 🙂
58 already! Wow!!! I feel old every day. I ache all over when I get up from sitting. It takes me about 5 minutes to feel normal again. 🙂 🙂
I turned 70 this past summer. My mind is still stuck at 30 lol. Had a torn rotator cuff just before Thanksgiving 2023. Had ruptured quads around my knees just before Christmas 2024 (and a slight tear in the other rotator cuff)…other than that I’m fine lol. My kids are 32 and 29.
It’s a special birthday. Your celebration plans sound great.
My oldest turns 20 today. Lots of celebrating on the South Shore today!
For those interested, here is a site that has banding.
As of now latest run is 6Z and it only goes to 18Z tomorrow.
Hopefully, the 12Z runs will be available soon.
https://moe.met.fsu.edu/banding/
Here is one for 18Z tomorrow
https://ibb.co/d8BZhxq
Good case study for RRFS model now. I started to figure out some of its biases with other types of set-ups from last summer and earlier this winter (clipper pattern), but we don’t have much in the way of Miller A and Miller B type winter storm set-ups to look at for this one. And you need several examples before you can even begin to identify biases.
Do you think that Tom’s comments regarding this model are reasonable? thanks
They could be, but we just don’t have enough information to know yet.
🙂
I took this picture prior to sunrise this morning at Lynn Beach.
https://photos.app.goo.gl/KqbXu8RrhwLhoUMNA
Nice.
Very nice!!
And the 12Z GFS Kuchera Snow totals are in:
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2026012412&fh=63&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
Still NO RDPS!!!
Just read a tweet posted by Dave Epstein. He said “freezing drizzle” and “rising temperatures” (also in Boston) Monday morning could be a factor. It does seem the sleet/mix line has moved north. I do think that will keep totals down from Boston south.
I think the jackpot areas for snow may turn out to be … well, where they often are, in SClarke’s and retrac’s neck of the woods. Better ratios and no mixing.
I could see Boston wind up with under a foot and Providence and points south under 10 inches.
Epstein wrote in his tweet that the Monday morning brief warm-up would “help with clean-up.” I completely disagree with that statement. Mix/sleet/rain makes cleanup worse, not better. And, with ensuing crashing temps, walking around the city will be treacherous for the foreseeable future.
All snow events (with no mixing) are MUCH easier to clean up and don’t have the after-effect of treacherous sidewalks like snow to mix events do.
Actually if the precipitation is light, it would help with the cleanup, especially since most of the snow that will have fallen is lower water content and fairly lightweight.
This is exactly what I have feared all along , again this morning numbers seem lower & now with this cold air we are talking rain & mix moving in . I’m just nervous for a let down
Numbers are NOT lower, they are, in fact, higher.
pay NO attention to that man behind the curtain!
You’re not going to see any rain.
He’s on an island all by himself and I, for one, AM NOT buying what he is selling!!!!!
Being awake at 8:00 makes for a productive morning. Two quiches in the oven. One soon to travel to Uxbridge. And the kitchen is cleaned up. Feels as if it should be 3:00.
The latest snowfall maps and infographics (including timing and maps for NH and Maine):
https://ibb.co/Dj27tmP
https://ibb.co/JW7ffQ2c
https://ibb.co/s9L1ZVMW
It’s 39F in Nuuk, Greenland; 40F in Reykjavik, Iceland. The temps at night are in the mid to upper 30s the coming days in both places. Greenland and Iceland have had exceptionally mild winters this year, by the way; Iceland’s winter has seen long stretches of record-breaking relative warmth.
Here is the 12Z run for banding
https://ibb.co/7N8rRjYx
I guess there was a major melt down for the Canadian model suite. Still NOTHING.
12Z UKMET 10:1 snow
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ukmo_global&p=sn10_acc-imp&rh=2026012412&fh=66&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
qpf
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ukmo_global&p=qpf_acc-imp&rh=2026012412&fh=66&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
Dave E could be correct, but, it doesn’t change what will happen in the front half.
Both can happen.
A lull, even the outside chance it could briefly get to 32F in Boston south and east doesn’t reduce how hard it’s going to snow tomorrow evening.
Boston area can get 15”+ and go through what Dave E suggests. It’s not that what might happen in part 2 diminishes what will happen in part one, (in my opinion), in this unique case.
I still think he is totally wrong based on what I have seen.
Could it be this? From the UKMET?
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ukmo_global&p=prateptype_ukmo-imp&rh=2026012400&fh=60&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
It is the ONLY model that portrays this and I don;t buy this either.
AND, as you say, even if this were ever to verify, SO MUCH SNOW will have fallen that it doesn’t matter at all.
Perhaps and a little blend of the other milder upper air solutions that push the coastal front a bit further inland and have more maritime influence.
I agree with you, I don’t think the mildest solutions verify.
But, I also don’t think, if the milder upper air solution verifies, that it causes that 5-8pm frame we’re watching to fall as sleet, which alone in, the totals might account for 35-50% of the total in that 3 hr window.
Total = total storm accumulations.
For instance, a town that ends up with 20” total may get 6-10” of that btwn 5-8, 5-9pm tomorrow evening.
So, a lull or near 32F temp for a few hrs near sunrise Monday morning I don’t think affects snow totals.
Now, IF we see something that shows that incredible evening snow could fall as sleet tomorrow evening, that’s a whole other matter. But I don’t think I’ve seen that at all.
IF that were to happen, I would be MOST DISAPPOINTED!!!!!
Let us have our freakin snow storm!!!!!
That would be a major change now that we’re within 48 hrs
I do suppose we’ve seen cases where mild noses get further north than modeled
BUT, the rising air, ie lift and precip intensity, I think, should keep that 700mb layer or so cool enough through that extreme frontogenesis btwn 5-8 pm in both Boston, Marshfield and frankly to almost all the way to the south coast.
Exactly , I’m not sure super high numbers are a guarantee but feel free to correct me . A lot of what ifs less than 24 hours till arrival
The Noyes’ seem to think bostons snow will only be briefly fluffy… but then wet and pasty.
https://ibb.co/9kk1DHBy
Thoughts?
Depending on the set up of the “coastal front”, I could see Boston getting into a more heavy powder and perhaps getting a little stickier, but full blown Paste, I DON’t THINK SO. We shall see.
If it does become pasty, it could cause tons of problems and possible power outages.
Don’t listen to da “Noyes”. Lol. 😉
Good morning all and thanks TK.
-8F here at Bretton Woods NH and a dewpoint of -20F. Very cold, dry air. There’s a couple inches of fresh snow on the ground from last night and it’s a beautiful sunny blue bird day. You wouldn’t know how cold it is out there looking out the window!
I stepped out of the room and snapped a few pics of Mount Washington a few minutes ago:
https://imgur.com/a/8jliQ2Z
We are heading out shortly to cross country ski. Decided to hold off until noon to let things “warm” up a bit.
Not liking the looks of the short range models this AM for CT with many showing the sleet line getting up to our area. I’m sure we are good for a foot plus either way but that would definitely cut down on the totals. I think north of the CT/RI-MA line should be safe and where we see the highest totals.
Nice photos !
Stunning photos. I have Washington as my watch face.
Well done.
One thing to watch for regarding the case study for RRFS (vs HRRR here).
2m temp forecast from the 12z RRFS bring Boston to 30 before midnight Sunday night, and to above freezing early Monday before it falls off.
2m temp forecast from 12z HRRR brings 30+ temps to Cape Cod and the Islands only, with sub-30 everywhere else, even during the “warmest” part of the event.
Thanks ! Will watch !!
As with most things in life, we’ll probably verify somewhere in the middle of those 2 projections.
Was noticing that earlier. HRRR is COLD and keeps the sleet line very suppressed. Higher totals further south. Definitely rooting for that solution.
TK, any thoughts as to the coverage of snow and accumulation amounts that follow in eastern MA once the front end thump of snow is dry slotted? It’s still unclear to me whether we see nothing for many from predawn through Monday or if we see period light snow or other outcome. It seems that 95% of our accumulation in eastern MA is from Sunday afternoon to about 1 am Monday. I’m still not clear as to what happens thereafter in terms of snow intensity and accumulation, if any, that follows (part 2, if there is a part 2). Many thanks!
After 1 a.m. until the end of the storm I’d expect 2 to 5 additional inches of snow north of I-90 and 1 to 2 inches additional to the south. This will probably fluctuate a little to be not “exactly” along I-90.
Thank you. That was my fear. In other words, this is a short duration storm as it relates to moderate to heavy snow. Oh well. Nice storm anyhow.
TK, do you think that heavy precip with thunder/lightning possible tomorrow evening could fall as sleet in our general area in that 4-8 to 5-9pm timeframe? It’s the only way I see a chance of underperforming on snow.
(I can’t say 0% chance if only because we see cases where the 700 mb mild nose gets further north than modeled.)
Yes. Thunder is most certainly possible.
As far as the sleet getting that far north? Less confident on it but keeping it south for now, at least through the period of heaviest precipitation.
12z GFS with another coastal bomb next Sunday that hammers eastern areas, and another one early the following weekend. 0z Euro had a very similar looking system next weekend but blows up a different piece of energy, centering the threat more around Friday.
Approaching full moon next weekend.
We have the room to accept a surge during high tides this weekend, but wouldn’t have that so much next weekend.
Patriots most likely at the airport now or on their way. There was a walkthrough at Gillette this AM. I believe there were one or more reports that practice went well this week.
Pats are 3.5-4.5 pt favorites.
Eric Fisher has chimed in with 2 new tweets this morning.
The first one matches what we’ve been talking about this evening with that extreme frontogenesis pushing through.
The 2nd one, JpDave, take a deep breath before you look at it 🙂
Although for Boston, I think that projection stays south, but gets me a bit in marshfield 🙂
This evening = this morning.
Meaning
We’re going to get a lot of snow in a short time Sunday and Sunday evening.
And then, down around us, do we get 12” because we change to sleet for a bit at the end of the front end thump or do we get 20” because we stay all snow.
Either way, I believe we get a lot of snow. This isn’t 5 vs 20.
Tom, can post a link?
https://twitter.com/ericfisher
Hopefully, this works
The sleet thought is, I think, from the 3km NAM.
Both NAM’s and the RRFS A, I believe, simulate the milder upper level scenarios.
I can be very wrong, but I don’t think these mildest aloft scenarios will verify. I also don’t think these GFS/Icon/HRRR verify and the actual outcome will fall in the middle.
Tom, where are Eric’s thoughts on the storm?
Above on the link I posted a couple posts above. It’s in green.
Then go down just a bit 🙂
Not working for me. I only see older posts from Eric.
The first one shows the entire region in red at 6pm tomorrow night.
That’s the model giving those areas a 90% or higher chance of experiencing 1 to 2+ inches per hr snow rates and he mentions thundersnow chances as many short range models had some % chances on lightning frequency maps
And then the 2nd one is one models simulation of sleet accumulation after that front end major thump of snow.
Couldn’t find the specific tweet.
Well, where is the link?
I’d lean colder solution given the antecedent very cold airmass in place. Hope I’m right on that.
Thanks Arod !
How bout this ?
Eric Fisher
@ericfisher
·
1h
Odds of 1″-2″+ per hour rates Sunday evening are #LockItIn territory
This is also when thundersnow will be most likely ❄️ ⚡️
(6p shown)
Image
Eric Fisher
@ericfisher
·
2h
Still watching that sleet line…areas around southern CT to the South Coast/Cape could get an inch or two of sleet after the initial burst of snow
Much heavier/tougher to move event in those locales. Fluffy higher ratio stuff across interior/northern MA
Image
Arrrgh, that maps didn’t copy!
I’m sorry I’m not better at technology !
Maps won’t post here. Link to map maybe.
Thanks Tom. All I saw was old photos like Arod.
I am definitely hoping for all snow.
Mark, thanks for sharing the pictures from up north.
I see that Jimmy B layered up and did his run today. I just finished mine. Stellar day for running, especially the longer one’s jogging. The first mile was not pleasant. But after that the body quickly adjusts. The second mile felt much better. By mile 3, I didn’t feel the cold. And by mile 4 I began to sweat a little, took off the gloves. And no, I’m not an amphibian. But my body does get acclimated to cold; a different story for me with heat, obviously.
Joshua – agree – 1st Mile is tough. After that it’s fine – had a face mask – felt a bit of frostbite going into wind but when with wind and in sun it subsided quickly. Lungs need some time to get used to these temps. I once ran a 14 mile race in sub zero temps in Minneapolis with a wind chill of 20 below. It’s an extreme experience! Triple layer day
Take 2 and fingers crossed
https://mobile.twitter.com/ericfisher
If this works, he has a pinned tweet up top and then the new ones are the 2 below it.
I got to Eric with your first post. To this
https://x.com/ericfisher/status/2015106124660310303?s=61
Yep. Both of your links worked for me
Yay 🙂
Thanks Vicki.
I still can’t find it. Don’t worry about it. We get the message. Thanks anyway. 🙂
Mark alluded to several chances down the road. This is shaping up to be a consistently cold period, which I REALLY like. I can even take a crappy spring when we’ve had a `real’ winter. I find raw April and May weather much harder to bear after a relatively mild winter.
14 degrees. Just went out and filled up the birdfeeders and brought in the flagpoles. Cold, but nice and very pretty.
The storm has started in Nashville. Here’s Lower Broadway where all of the honky tonks are:
https://www.webcamtaxi.com/en/usa/tennessee/broadway-nashville.html
Awesome you filled your feeders. I can’t get to my feeders sadly. I’m not steady enough in the snow
Been in that one in the corner. Actually I think I went in all of them but things got blurry LMAO.
We’re working on going back there this spring to see Chris Stapleton.
I was there for a brief time about 10 years ago on a radio trip. Would love to go back.
This “warm nose”. I don’t get it. There was no such thing in 1978 or on January 29, 2022 for that matter. Always something to worry about with snow events around here unlike the Midwest for example. They get straight snows with no mixing, no mess, no fuss. ❄️
I can’t recall any “warm noses” during 2015 either.
It’s ok everyone. I am calm. I am calm! 🙂
Those setups were very different aloft and so, as you point out correctly, that didn’t happen over us. 🙂
The “warm noses” frequently occur here, especially near the coast. You’re correct that in certain periods like the 2015 mega blitz and the 2011 mini-mega blitz we didn’t get warm noses. But I’d say that’s the exception rather than the rule. Coastal fronts introduce a factor that one simply doesn’t have across, say, the plains or the Midwest.
Philip you have me smiling. Loving this post by you.
There was VERY MUCH such a thing back then. We experienced a lot of them too.
My puppy has a cold nose….I like that better 🙂
🙂 🙂 🙂
And Philip, in 1978 I recall several mix/rain events preceding the big January storm and the one in February. Not warm noses so much as simply a function of areas of low pressure going west of us or over the top of us. I will never forget the crashing temps following one of the rainstorms in January 1978. I remember being with my father in his car and the temps were dropping like a rock. We were stuck behind a salter/sander truck. My father explained to me why the salting/sanding was necessary.
The major storm on our wedding day 12/9/78 was rain all day and then a foot or more snow with thunder snow at night. But that is just one
That’s a nice storm and memory. I do like rain to snow events SO much. I think it’s really cool.
Snow to rain events, not so much.
Agree and thank you.
Speaking of warm noses, my nose was warmer at the end of my run outside than it is now. It’s a cold nose. Maybe this means something? All snow in Boston, hopefully.
I mean… when we run as long as it isn’t a bitter wind – don’t our bodies generally heat up?
Well, you’re the doctor.
I would like to give that “warm nose” a good ARCTIC PUNCH IN THE NOSE come tomorrow night! 😉
Also, is that warm nose responsible for our Monday morning dry slot?
lol. That was funny.
Sadly I have no memory of 12/9/78. I usually remember vividly snow events. I would have been wrapping up my first semester of my freshman year of college by that date. Getting ready for finals.
At least it was good memories for you Vicki! 🙂
The NWS-Denver forecast for Sunday:
Sunday: Snow likely, mainly after 11am. Increasing clouds, with a high near 24. Light and variable wind becoming north northeast 5 to 9 mph in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 17 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.
Yes, the warm up there is delayed by a day over last weekend’s 7-day outlook. They get some light snowfall ahead of it, and that is tomorrow.
A couple mid afternoon points…
* I’ve seen enough evidence on the SRG now that I’m pretty certain the warm intrusion aloft will cause a band of sleet across the South Coast region, probably up to about Plymouth on the South Shore, and possibly as far north as I-90 (though less sold on that far).
* MOST of the snowfall is going to occur before the time frame of that warm intrusion, even if it didn’t occur or was just a graze, so that is not going to have a huge impact on the snow totals. I’ve been accounting for this potential for a couple days already by keeping the possible lower snow total area nearer the South Coast, so there are no real surprises here. Only thing needed is to fine-tune the timing and impact details.
* I notice the NWS is doing the snowfall map antics again. Latest one came out (through 7 a.m. Tuesday) and removed the entire 18-24″ belt from eastern areas. I’m not sure if they meant to do that or not, given that 1) They left the one near the Berkshires in place, and 2) They pulled stuff like this yesterday too, and the day before, and ….
https://www.weather.gov/images/box/winter/StormTotalSnow.jpg
And here’s one I found, updated after 1pm, if I’m reading correctly.
They explained in their 1:30pm discussion update that they lowered accum’s s bit on the south coast for sleet.
I really took note of your 2nd paragraph.
Yes, having just seen their updated discussion just issued, they are 6-12 S Coast, 12-18 elsewhere in eastern MA, with no further mention of >18″ at this time.
Taunton (records since 1893; NWS since 1996) has had seven, 20″+ snowstorms in its history:
February 6-7, 1978 38.5″
December 5-7, 2003 25.9″
January 28-29, 2022 24.8”
March 31-April 1, 1997 23.3″
February 8-9, 2013 22.7″
March 4-6, 1960 22.0″
January 26-28, 2015 20.8″
Providence (TF Green ~ Warwick) has had three:
Providence (Records since 1905)
February 6-7, 1978 28.6″
January 22-23, 2005 23.4″
January 7-8, 1996 22.8″
Boston (Logan) has had 10:
Boston (Records since 1892)
February 17-18, 2003 27.6″
February 6-7, 1978 27.1″
February 24-27, 1969 26.3″
February 8-9, 2013 25.9″
March 31-April 1, 1997 25.4″
January 26-28, 2015 24.6″
January 28-29, 2022 23.8”
February 7-10, 2015 23.8″
January 22-23, 2005 22.5″
January 20-21, 1978 21.4″
Wow! I had no idea that Taunton received nearly 40” of snow during the 1978 Blizzard.
Impressive to say the least. Would love to see Boston get 30-inches someday.
Thanks TK.
Stay safe out there and enjoy this one y’all! This one is definitely for the snow lovers. Honestly, it’s the first storm since I left SNE since I felt like I’m missing out on one. Certainly the first time since I moved to CA. Just for fun, I’ll go 20.4″ on a storm total for Boston Logan 🙂
Plenty more chances to come too. This is very much a 2014-2015 type pattern, which is something I’ve been eyeing for many weeks now (my tireless comparison of the current sequence to the 13-14, 14-15, 15-16 winters). They almost surely won’t all hit the way they did in 14-15, but it’s as good a pattern as you can hope for.
15.3
11.11 for me
13.4
Have this. Do you want to add one for Worcester ?
14.7 for Logan
17 here in Hingham (some Ocean effect hopefully)
Went to our local JP Whole Foods. Had to park in the Angel Memorial lot and walk over. I got my items no sweat, but the check out line was 10-12 deep, but moved quickly. I was in and out of there in no time.
It was Pleasantly cold out. That is how I would describe it.There wasn’t much wind.
Glad you took my advice , now it’s done
Things look good to me. Not much to change.
Looking BETTER and BETTER to me.
I am still NOT clear on what the 2nd post was from Eric Fish.
Tom told me to take a deep breathe. I presume he means sleet into Boston? I say NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!
18Z HRRR, creeping upward
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2026012418&fh=48&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
Both 18Z NAMS have a decent backside with light to occasionally Moderate snow and additional accumulation.
18 Z NAM Kuchera
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2026012418&fh=63&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
At this range, the short range guidance tends to underdo the northward advance of a warm intrusion.
Been chatting with colleagues about this as the day has gone on. Based on that, and reviewing 12z information, and the application of meteorology, my current call on accumulation remains unchanged, but I do think there is a lesser chance of anybody hitting 20+ in the “pockets of 16-22” that I mentioned.
KILJOY!
No. Forecaster.
18Z RRFSA Kuchera Snow
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rrfs_a&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2026012418&fh=56&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
If they undo it, what good are they?
Yes, I have seen it before. I hope you are incorrect.
I don’t want to see any sleet. If I must, it should be at the very end with lighter precipitation.
If it ever comes with the heavy precip, you will be able to hear me across the state!!!!!
Forecasts are updated with new information.
It’s not like it can only go up and never come down. It can vary. Same thing happens with rainfall forecasts.
I’ve had 10-16 with pockets of 16-22 for 2 days now.
18Z 3KM NAm Kuchera Snow
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam4km&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2026012418&fh=60&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
Still snowing some at end of run
12Z HREF 24 hour snow
https://ibb.co/VYMWsfrL
Short-Term Snowfall Contest…
Feel free to put in a guess for Boston & Worcester.
Boston guesses so far are 20.4 for WxWatcher and 15.3 for me.
Worcester, I’ll say 16.9 after they get 13+, a lull, then a few more inches, with a little elevation and fluff factor enhancement.
Ok, I am Game. 22.6 for Worcester and 25.1 for Boston.
How do you like them apples. 🙂 🙂 🙂
Hey, why not go for it. It’s only for fun.
20 in Worcester and 16 in Boston and here in Swampscott, 22, because I decided to put myself in the jackpot zone.
20 in Worcester and 16 in Boston and here in Swampscott, 22, because I decided to put myself in the jackpot zone.
No idea why this double posted.
I have JPD, and Longshot
13.4 Boston
22.2 Worcester
Got it Philip
14.3 Quincy
I posted above but just to make sure (and add Worcester)
21.5 Worcester
14.7 Logan
17 Here in Hingham
Got it
I recorded those. I will reply to your posts to let you know I recorded them. If I don’t it means I missed your guess
9.5 for Boston . I’m just nervous this does not reach max potential & less down on the south shore , even less through the Islands ( totally hope I’m wrong I’m just not feeling since this morning . After all this cold !
2 NWS maps. They cover different timeframes and they were issued a couple of hours apart. These 2 seem to be similar. There are others out there that are not similar.
Event Total Snow Accumulation (7 AM Sunday to 7 AM Tuesday)
https://www.weather.gov/images/box/winter/StormTotalSnow.jpg
Expected Snowfall: Official NWS Forecast (1 PM Saturday to 7 AM Tuesday)
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/Prob_Precip/idss-map/mapgen.php?office=BOX&ptype=prob_sn&summary=true&state=MA&pointpreferences=MA&product=expected&2025020905
Ohhhhhhhhh ……. 🙂
Logan: 18.4”
Worcester: 19.1”
Marshfield: 15.3”
I’m confident in that nutty 4-8 or 5-9pm time frame for heavy snow and thundersnow, after that, I gave the numbers above, but don’t know if they’ll be more like 10-14 or 18-24 so I went down the middle 🙂 cause of the uncertainty mid system with the 700 mb mild nose.
That’s fine. I went the other way, full out snow blitz!!!!
Got it
Saw that, JpDave and thanks Vicki !
I’d love your numbers to verify JpDave !!!
FWIW, the HRES 18Z runs have the sleet line considerable farther South than correspondning 12 runs. Just saying….
Example RRFSA
18Z for 4Z or 11 PM
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rrfs_a&p=ref1km_ptype&rh=2026012418&fh=34&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
12Z for same time
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2026012412&fh=40&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_ne&p=ref1km_ptype&m=rrfs_a
That’s “about” 40 miles farther South on the 18Z run.
I’d say that was a good sign that the sleet does NOT get into
Boston. Don’t you think?
I was just about to post something similar on the 3km NAM with it being maybe 20 miles further south.
18z
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam4km&p=850wh&rh=2026012418&fh=37&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
12z
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam4km&p=850wh&rh=2026012412&fh=43&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
Just compare the bottom purple line marking the southern edge of the decent easterly low level jet.
The RRFS has certainly detailed a lot of how this would go, based on its simulation. I’m ever-curious to find out how close it gets 4 distinctive precipitation bursts for Boston.
1) The main shield Sunday afternoon-evening.
2) A mid level disturbance racing in from the W shortly after an initial dry slot during the overnight.
3) A NW to SE moving quasi-squall line mid morning Monday.
4: A weak to moderate back-lash / wrap-around snow midday Monday.
A meteorologist / colleague of mine thinks Boston has a shot to break their all time record for one storm.
I do not.
What is its record
27.6 in February of 2003.
Absolutely NO. WAY.
Without giving a name, is this a meteorologist we would know from tv?
Well, maybe a shot if the following 3 items are eliminated: 😉
1. warm nose
2. coastal front
3. dry slot
It is not a TV met.
Even without those 3 things it would not happen in this event.
Thank you.
I can enter your town name and guess of you want to add them
I saw that, especially #3. Didn’t pick out #2.
Re: RRFS A post from TK a bit above.
I’m going with this forecast: https://x.com/DrCatharineY/status/2015092864879833333
HA HA HA Can’t go wrong with that one, except that it doesn’t help out anyone!!!!
You win!
If possible, it is easier to find new guesses if you add at the end of discussion. There are a lot of posts here so I may miss yours.
I have WxW, TK, Philip,me, JPD, Longshot and tom.
And I can add your town in the notes column
So now we are into the range where the guidance (both global and shorter range, higher res) can struggle in a very cold scenario.
These models have a tendency to misfire on at least one of two things…
1) Accurate enough temperature profile through narrow layers of the atmosphere that impact snow growth and snowflake type. Very shallow layers can be missed.
2) An over-estimation of available moisture for snow in very cold air.
3) When using Kuchera, this adjusted method has some problems with simulation of the physical processes in a colder atmospheric profile. This increases the error in the direction of overstating snow totals.
I’m going to be AFB (away from blog) for a little while.
Vicki thank you for compiling the guesses. Let’s just have some fun with this!
I’ll be back later with updated ideas – depending on how updated they need to be. 😉
I enjoy the fun and keeping track is fun too. Thank you for all you do for whw
P.S. … FWIW at this point, the Canadian model for 12z came in, and its snowfall accumulation forecast (Kuchera) is basically exactly the same as mine.
I thought you didn’t care for the Canadian models?????
🙂 :_) 🙂
What we really need to see is the HRDPS and that isn’t out yet, even for the 12z! Go Figure.
I don’t generally overly care for them, but that said, I don’t have any influence over their output, and that particular run of that particular model came out with snowfall that happened to match mine.
I say 22.7 for Boston……..25.4 for Worcester……17.6 for North Providence (my home)…..and 21.9 for Swampscott (spent first 25 years of my life there).
I now have WxW, TK, Philip,me, JPD, Longshot and tom, Keith, Weatherbee as of 5:38 pm
You get mine
I will now be AFB as well…to dinner! 🙂
This will likely get lost in the snow discussions but Wordle in 3
Awesome Julie.
Excellent!
Wow! I Knew someone would get it in 3! Great Job!
Boston – 19.4
Worcester – 23.6
Padanaram Village – 14.8
Got it
Oooof, came back to the blog after a few hours and it’s like the air has been let out of the room. Nothing like the hi-res models laying a turd in the punchbowl. Seeing some of the snowfall maps change too. Boooooo
????????????????
TV Mets are reacting and changing the maps.
Do you have any links?
Sleet, dry slot, shifting of the jackpot zones, etc.
Yup I’m concerned lower tomorrow
Huh? Still on track. I don’t get it.
Did you see mine and Tom’s post about how 18Z guidance pushed the sleet farther South than the 12z runs?
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G_dhGkNXMAAGRw5?format=jpg&name=large
I think the air is a bit out of the balloon for the South Coast but we really won’t know until the event happens. We are still getting a big storm but Boston still seems to be in jackpot zone
I’ll play.
Boston 21.5″
Worcester 23″
Taunton (Norton NWS) 17.5″
Thanks, Vicki, for being scorekeeper!
Worcester: 25.6 inches
Lunenburg: 30.1 inches (jackpot)
Boston: 13.4 inches
Marshfield: 10.8 inches
Providence: 11.2 inches
Do you have one extra town?
If there’s enough drifting of the fluffy snow, I should be able to find a spot where you to nail that 30.1!
🙂
What’s that “to” doing there?!
18Z UKMET 10:1 snow
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ukmo_global&p=sn10_acc-imp&rh=2026012418&fh=66&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
Worcester 24.2
Boston 18.6
Providence 17.8
Got it.
Damn monster storm!!
My guess is;
Worcester 25.7”
Boston 23.5”
Got it
I’ll throw my hat in the ring.
Boston: 14.8
Worcester: 20.3
Sturbridge (me) : 17.6
Got it
I would struggle to understand any notion that the the I-90 corridor and about 20 miles north and south of it are anything but the jackpot zone for this event. This is a total SNE special. Sure, sleet pellets may get in by the very end as far north as that I-90 line, but the trade off is much greater QPF with little negative impact on ratios while the snow is falling. As far as I can tell the only trends are up on snow, not down. QPF has definitely gone up. Now, if I was on the South Coast, I’d be more concerned. But this is a Boston-area jackpot event, no question about it. Worcester hills and thereabouts will probably come in higher than Boston due to the usual orographics, but any prediction under 12″ for Boston seems totally unrealistic. The city is more likely to come in over 24″ than under 12″, though both such outcomes are unlikely.
When you & others say south coast is that south shore or like deep cape ( the Islands ) sounds like a stupid question right , thank you
Nope, not stupid question SSK. I always have the same question. There seems to be differing thoughts on the location of the south coast vs south shore vs coastal areas, etc.
I wouldn’t consider 20 miles south of I-90 the south coast
And Ace, you might end up right.
Maybe that 700 mb nose surprises us.
I just questioned your thought about an hr ago not be condescending, but only because if anything, the 18z models, I believe were a little cooler aloft.
Now, does that guarantee against a major surprise tomorrow evening, nope 🙂
But the model data at least was even better for snow in the jackpot area and pushed the sleet impact a little further south. I think.
100% agree & looking forward to the correct answer.
BOSTON 18.6
WORCESTER 20.2
PROVIDENCE 15.3
HARTFORD 16.6
Got it
https://ibb.co/395sfJg3
https://ibb.co/3yvNXsg4
Latest snowfall forecasts and channel 4’s addendum
These are guesses I have so far. Please let me know if I missed you or entered your guess incorrectly
https://ibb.co/yFH1qQ2D
Boston 17
W 22
Got it
Nothing major has changed today.
I have not changed my numbers in a day and a half.
The only thing that we have seen is some fine tuning, which is typical when you get inside 48 hours.
The global models are not going to give you the answer three or more days in advance. They are going to give you simulations based on data fed to them. The models do not dictate the weather. The model simulate the weather based on information given to them.
Tk please define south coast . South shore , cape cod & the Islands ??? Thank you
South shore is us, hull to all the way to the bridges??
South coast is where the land meets buzzards bay, Nantucket sound, the south coast of RI. The south coast 🙂
That’s what I thought thanks .
Thank you. That is what I have always thought. Took me a bit to remember South shore
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=700th&rh=2026012500&fh=24&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
First up, 00z HRRR
8pm tomorrow night, in the heart of that frontogenesis thump and the HRRR has -2C at the South coast and -4 to -5C at Marshfield’s latitude at 700 mb, so that would indicate nearly all of southernmost New England gets that incredible front end thump as snow.
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=sn10_acc-imp&rh=2026012500&fh=28&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
And accordingly, its projection by 4z tomorrow night, 11 or 12am midnight, I’ll never get that conversion right. But that’s hefty amounts right to the south coast.
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=qpf_acc-imp&rh=2026012500&fh=31&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
And about 1.2 to 1.3 melted from part 1, wow !!!
And with ratios 15:1 on average for most of the front end, that translates to about a foot and a half for part one alone!
Yes 🙂
Tom can you define south coast for Ace & I. Is that considered south shore of CC & islands or province town
Just did above 🙂
Thanks I missed lol
Ok and now at hr 37, 13z Monday, it’s simulating a lull, but I have a feeling that will fill in and let’s see what the HRRR gives us btwn say 11am and 7pm Monday.
I suspect as TK said earlier today, 2-4 or so north of the pike and 1-3 to the south.
So this has the possibility to go most of Monday with accumulating snow . Son is to work at Khols Monday & I wonder if they will close
Yeah, there’s continued impact into Monday.
It’s not as severe starting midday Sunday and especially Sunday late afternoon into evening, up to midnight.
An extra issue Gloucester, Boston and all south shore towns may deal with Monday is ….. the temp is likely to be 30F ish for a handful of hours early Monday and then crash to the teens. So, some roads may see leftover slush or thin layer of snow moisten when it’s near 30F and then turn to solid ice when the coastal front collapses early Monday afternoon.
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=snku_006h-imp&rh=2026012500&fh=42&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
6 hr snowfall (kuchera) from 7am to 1pm Monday.
The combined to parts are getting most areas to 15-20” and a few higher totals.
You might get two days off if verified
Yes. Hopefully a delay, Tuesday 🙂 🙂 🙂
TK mentioned earlier a disturbance on the RFSS A for part 2 and I think it’s showing on the HRRR for Monday afternoon and evening as the projected radar solidifies some with light to batches of moderate snow region wide right into Monday evening.
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=ref1km_ptype&rh=2026012500&fh=47&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=snku_006h-imp&rh=2026012500&fh=48&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
Yet another 1-3 inches from 2-8 pm Monday afternoon, for a general 2-6 additional inches for part 2 Monday, per the 00z HRRR
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2026012500&fh=48&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
Leading to those totals above.
Doesn’t mean that’s what will verify, but that’s what the 00z HRRR is selling.
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=sn10_acc-imp&rh=2026012500&fh=48&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
This is the total for the 00z HRRR for 10:1
Boston 16.5
Worcester 22
Billerica 15 ( we likely get stuck in between the coastal front heavy band and another heavy band to the east and one that sets up west
Got it
This seeming disturbance somewhat activating part 2 a bit is a new development to me, but perhaps it’s been there all along, but I’ll definitely be looking for it in the other short range models because if it happens, I think it makes the NWS’ and some parts of the TV snow maps underdone in some areas.
Man you’re good , looking forward to more of this tomorrow & I may stay up past my bedtime
Well, I’m only good if this interpretation is give is right.
If it’s not right, then not so good 🙂
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=700th&rh=2026012500&fh=24&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
00z NAM, for 00z tomorrow night, in the heart of the thump of snow.
Milder yes than the HRRR, but the -2C temp is still around the south shore, and the 0c temp is way down by the south coast, so this would drop most of that intense precip as snow almost to the south coast tomorrow, even in this milder scenario.
And the radar simulation supports that with snow still at 8pm and nearly all of southern New England.
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=ref1km_ptype&rh=2026012500&fh=24&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=ref1km_ptype&rh=2026012500&fh=30&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
The simulated snow line on this radar is about 15 miles or so further south compared to its 12z run, so a very tiny cooler aloft solution for this run.
Slightly better looking simulation on radar of part 2, as of 11am Monday on the NAM, compared to its 12z run
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=ref1km_ptype&rh=2026012500&fh=39&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=ref1km_ptype&rh=2026012412&fh=51&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
New 00z (1st) vs old 12z (2nd)
Vicki, you missed my other cities:
Quincy 14.3
Worcester 22.2
Thank you. Adding now
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=refcmp&rh=2026012500&fh=45&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
The NAM is also invigorating the backlash a bit, like the HRRR did Monday late afternoon (21z)
Interesting ….
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=refcmp&rh=2026012500&fh=48&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
Well !!!!!!
Tom – I’ll be very pleased if part one verifies. Anything beyond that on Monday for part two is just icing on the cake. It would be nice to see snow in the air even if mostly light with periodic moderate bursts well into Monday. I’ve seen storms like this seem to take forever to finally shut off as the departing low continues to strengthen. And with even light to moderate northeast winds blowing over the waters into a relatively colder airmass, that may produce snow in greater amounts than modeled if that makes any sense. Wouldn’t surprise me in the least if flakes were still falling into early Monday night before finally stopping.
Agreed 🙂
Btw, you need to go back to school for meteorology. I know that you’re a model teacher. Perhaps, you can experience the best of both worlds as a meteorologist teaching meteorology 🙂
Thanks 🙂 🙂 🙂
Seriously, I feel like being here on this blog is bring a met student and we have amazing professors such as TK, SAK, WxWatcher, JMA and also JpDave, yourself and everyone else.
I just literally try to take everything everyone contributes in and learn from it. There’s no doubt I’ve improved at the weather and it’s all come from woodshill weather.
You’re very kind but I bring nothing to this blog as it relates to educating anyone about the weather. Medicine is my thing but thanks! I am the one who learns from all of you 🙂
South Shore: Coast from Quincy to the Cape Cod Canal.
South Coast: CT coast, RI coast, MA Coast from RI border to Cape Cod Canal.
Cape Cod & Island: Cape Cod, Martha’s Vineyard, Nantucket.
As for how far inland is considered, the coast.. that is variable but generally the coastal plain – maybe around six miles.
Thanks
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rrfs_a&p=ref1km_ptype&rh=2026012500&fh=29&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
Definite southward adjustment on the 00z (above) RRFS A
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rrfs_a&p=ref1km_ptype&rh=2026012412&fh=41&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
Previous 12z (above)
Look at the latest placement of the 1001 vs that illustrated on the 12z. Definitely takes a slight southeast jog which makes all the difference in the world locking in the cold air if things go as depicted in that particular run.
OOZ appears to be ever so slightly north of 70/40. Can’t expect perfection.
As WXW said SNE special. Jackpot zone is where we all live for once lol.
It’s been along time
Yes, Hadi! Sure looks that way. Now we just need to finish. I consider pre-storm the off season. We don’t win any awards for having a good off season (models depicting heavy snow for example). So let’s prevail during the regular season and perform! Make sense?
The RRFS A, (not as much as the HRRR and NAM) does however, like they do and slightly reinvigorates the departing back edge of the precip Monday evening.
That time frame is still 42-48 hrs out (2 – 8pm Monday), but there’s potential in that time frame for a few more inches of snow. And that may slow things down Tuesday morning a bit, depending on what future runs show.
Nice Bruins comeback!
I was just looking at the current conditions list (NWS) across the Northeast and it’s been awhile since I’ve seen Barometric Pressures at this level (but then again I haven’t been paying close attention to that). 30.67 in Boston.
One thing that’s for sure with a high degree of confidence is that not many of us will be getting a lot of sleep tomorrow night.
Let alone the snow, I’m already a trainwreck about the Pats.
Don’t be. I know Sean Peyton guaranteed a win and that the Pats didn’t practice in Denver. Stidham is somewhat of a mobile QB but he can’t scramble for a first down like Nix can when it’s 3rd and long. The guy hasn’t thrown a ball in a real game in over two years. I predict we drop back in coverage to start the game. He may even look borderline good during the first half. But then watch for Vrabel to unleash the D line and bring various blitz packages to confuse him. I was shocked to hear that one Denver beat writer said that Maye at his best is not much different than Stidham at his best. Since when was the backup QB elite? Seems to be he ought to be a starter if he’s that good. What a joke. It’s fair to say Stidham shouldn’t be feared and neither should that overrated defense. What is real, however, is that altitude. I would have felt more comfortable if the team practiced in Denver all week.
I’m very calm about the storm, and the football game.
Whatever happens happens.
Weather is weather. The general public, for some reason, freaks out about snow. Not completely sure why. It’s like a borderline unhealthy societal obsession with snowfall amounts, when in fact the actual amounts are one of the least important aspects of the storm, secondary to start time, end time, snowfall rate, surface conditions, and other sensible weather aspects.
The Pats have already taken us for a great ride. Making the playoffs was the “win”. Everything else is bonus.
That isn’t what I meant when I said many of us won’t sleep well tomorrow night. I was alluding to the excitement associated with the storm particularly since it’s been a few years since snow lovers had an opportunity to enjoy a good snow storm like this should it come into fruition.
Frankly I probably won’t be sleeping much tonight let alone tomorrow night. I’m excited about the big snowstorm and the Patriots.
Yep….what TK said.
Eric is the only tv met that has the “jackpot” zone not including Boston. He has it just to their north. All I can say is…interesting.
Give it some time. That domino may fall this morning.
NWS was being conservative as well but just recently upped the ante: https://x.com/nwsboston/status/2015333819490943003?s=46&t=s4eVVdaEQyQ68YA8sxeH5w
He will adjust this AM
All systems are a go. NWS increasing be chance of higher totals and not using GFS/NAM as they are too warm. Jackpot is clearly where the coastal front sets up. NWS discussed it being between Plymouth and Worcester.
QPF is up on most short range stuff thus the NWS increase I am sure.
Wouldn’t be surprised to see some locations come in close to 30 inches. QPF keeps going up and I don’t see any reason to lower ratios so numbers will clearly keep going up. Getting close to 2 inches of QPF. I am sure the experts will probably disagree but this has the feel of an over performer.
This cold air is really strong and dense. That coastal front with this cold will provide some incredible snow rates.
Also look at the size of the storm, similar to 93 superstorm over 2K Miles. I believe this storm is bigger in size. Incredible folks, history in the making.
Cindy just said “puking snow” on live TV!! Love it.
She is really friendly and quite funny in person.
Jacob Wycoff has Boston and eastern mass in the 2 feet range so not sure the disconnect with Eric. Jacob mentioned great snow growth in all layers in the immediate Boston area.
Also tough loss for the C’s to go down that way but great comeback win for the B’s.
2 great football games and a monster snowstorm, did I die and go to heaven? Maybe heaven would be the commanders actually playing in a meaningful game. Ha.
Good luck to the Pats today. Think they win a tight game, I hear Stidham is hurt so who’s what else they have for QB’s.
Yup, fun day for those who love sports/weather.
Finally, game day and storm day.
I’m almost modeled out on part 1, but around 9-10pm tonight with the 00z HRRR and RRFS A, have interest on the 2-8pm window Monday.
Another 1-3, 2-4, could someone see 3-5” in eastern Mass from what seems like a solidifying back edge?
Wordle: 5, missed an opportunity for a 4.
And narrowing down for perhaps eastern Cape Ann, Boston, South shore towns east of rte 3 and certainly Cape Cod, a freeze up time on the roads tomorrow for a temp drop from 28-36F down into the teens and low 20s with some new snow atop that.
Seems like all the TV mets and NWS have slightly bumped up their totals in Eastern Mass this morning..;;
A little bit of that is reaction to short range guidance, which is probably ever so slightly overdone in some spots.
But at this point when you have a snowfall of this magnitude a few inches here or there no longer matter.
Seeing the first flakes from this storm system. This afternoon and this evening snow is really going to pile up.
State issued remote work day tomorrow for all non essential employees
New post…
I added 2 inches to my #’s otherwise everything else is the same.