Tuesday February 10 2026 Forecast (8:58AM)

95 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 10-14)

A clipper-low will slide east southeastward rapidly today and tonight, with the low center passing just north of our area – across northern New England – during this evening, while it is maturing and its warm front / cold front combo is in the process of occluding (when the cold front catches up to the warm front starting at the low center and progressing away from it). One band of snow will move across our region ahead of the warm front / occlusion, with a second, slightly heavier band of precipitation along the cold front / occlusion. It looks like the occluding part of the frontal boundaries will cross southern NH and northern MA, while southern MA and CT /RI get briefly into the warm sector behind the warm front and ahead of the cold front before the latter passes through those areas. The further north you are, the less break (or no break) you will see between the snow areas with the two fronts. The further south you are, the shorter snow period number 1 will be, and the second period will come also in a somewhat shorter burst that will be mixed with rain the closer to the South Coast and Cape Cod you are, due to the brief intrusion of warmer air that occurs in those location. As expected, the accumulation of snow with this system will reflect what I just described. I’m looking for only a coating to 1 inch along the South Coast, 1 to 3 inches from a Providence RI / Hartford CT line northward with closer to 1 inch favored the further south you are and a build up the further north you go, and finally 3 to 5 inches north of Route 2 from far north central MA across southern NH into northeastern MA, with most areas toward the lower side of this range while the maximum amounts occur in a rather small zone from south central NH (Manchester / Concord area) to the NH Seacoast and northern Essex County MA. This precipitation event will end from northwest to southeast across the WHW forecast area from about 11 p.m. to 3 a.m. During the overnight hours into the daytime hours of Wednesday, the low pressure area will redevelop offshore to the east of New England, and as it moves away, the old low pressure area to the north will transform into an inverted trough behind the new low pressure center, and as the latter’s center intensifies and heads toward Atlantic Canada, it will pull the inverted trough southward around the back side of its circulation. It is this trough that will then bring the chance of snow showers to southeastern NH and eastern MA Wednesday evening. This part of the event looks slightly less impressive on short range guidance than it did 24 hours ago, however the opportunity does exist, and anybody who experiences a snow shower could see a minor additional accumulation of snow and briefly low visibility. Thursday’s weather will be blustery and seasonably chilly with a fair amount of clouds mixed with some sun as our area sits underneath the western side of upper level low pressure and in a northwesterly air flow behind the departed low pressure area which will by then be a larger storm in Atlantic Canada, while a high pressure area builds across the Ohio Valley. That high, while passing to our south, does nose northeastward enough to result in more sun and less wind on Friday, which despite being a seasonably chilly day as well, will feel less cold than Thursday now to the noticeably-increasing sun angle as we enter mid February. On Saturday, I’m watching a small but potent disturbance dropping southeastward out of Canada that will drag a cold front our way and bring the chance of some passing snow showers that day.

TODAY: Sunshine fades behind increasing clouds. Highs 27-34. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Overcast evening with snow likely, however a brief break in precipitation especially I-90 belt southward, and some rain mixed in late evening along the South Coast. Snow and South Coast mix ends northwest to southeast late evening into overnight followed by breaking clouds. Lows 23-30. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 30-37. Wind NW to N 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of snow showers southeastern NH and eastern MA evening. Lows 13-20. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 27-34. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 12-19. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 28-35. Wind NW to W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 13-20. Wind W to SW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sun / cloud mix. Chance of snow showers. Highs 30-37. Wind SW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts, shifting to NW.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 15-19)

Watching the period from late February 15 through February 16 for potential impact from low pressure. Track of storm system is uncertain, but currently leaning toward a graze or miss as it passes to the south. Fair, seasonably cold weather follows for February 17-19.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 20-24)

A couple disturbances passing through triggering some up-and-down temperatures and minor precipitation threats, but no major storminess is indicated during this period. A stronger shot of cold air may arrive at the very end of the period.

95 thoughts on “Tuesday February 10 2026 Forecast (8:58AM)”

  3. Thanks TK !

    What a great discussion explaining how tonight’s system will occur !!

    Wordle: 5 I had 3 letters after 2 guesses and was hoping to get it earlier, but not meant to be.

    Reply

  4. I saw the JR discussion early morning.

    TK is correct. The dictate often comes from above. I know this for fact about Ch 7. You play their game or you are out. We’ve seen that first hand with one met who pushed back too hard and the was escorted out and second who tried to abide by the rules as much as possible and was removed just the same. Others I don’t have first hand experience with are gone too.

    That said, does anyone have a link to JRs comment.

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    1. I don’t but what he said on the one I watched that night was he thought we were done seeing highs like the top 3 coldest days this winter that were in the teens.

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  5. I have a theory on why TV mets declare “we’ve been through the worst.” It has to do mostly with ratings and trying to maintain a positive, cheery mood for the audience, most of whom pine for spring and are not fans of winter.

    So, I don’t think veteran TV mets, who know the weather around here, really believe what they’re saying when they prematurely forecast the end of bitterly cold weather on February 9th!

    This said, however it’s phrased and whatever the mets believe, winter does tend to lose its grip the closer we get to March and April. Sustained bitter cold becomes less probable over time. Similarly, sustained high heat indices become less probable over time beginning in mid-August.

    Reply

    1. Yes, I think your last paragraph captures it, Joshua !

      There’s the literal and non-literal translation of what Jeremy may have said.

      Taken literally, of course, there could be individual days that are colder than what we have had, maybe even a 3 to 5 day stretch that is colder than what we have had.

      Non-literal, I think he’s correct. We’re on an 18 day stretch with Logan under a high temp of 40F and of course, some of those would be well below 32F.

      Sun strength and length of daylight are exploding and relatively speaking, the upcoming pattern doesn’t look as cold as what we’ve had mostly since December really, so, yes, non-literally, I don’t think we’ll match the entirety of what we have had again.

      Reply

    2. This is basically what I was getting at. So much of what we hear on air is driven from above. Same goes for what is posted on their social media, which are sometimes done by people other than the meteorologist – which also explains some of the bizarre and hype-infused headlines.

      Reply

    3. We were typing the same time, Joshua. Great comment. And also the same to TK and Tom.

      There is actually a dictate from above to be the first to declare something or to get 7 day out first or anything else that is first. This I know for fact re whdh. The other networks I don’t know for fact.

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  7. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=ref1km_ptype&rh=2026021012&fh=17&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=ref1km_ptype&rh=2026021012&fh=18&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=850wh&rh=2026021012&fh=18&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    2-3 hr batch of potentially moderate to heavy snow in southern New England centered around 5-6z (midnight or just after) with the strongest core of the 850 mb jet passing through.

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=sfct-imp&rh=2026021012&fh=18&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    It will be near 32F so any slightly elevated areas might get that extra bit more

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=sn10_acc-imp&rh=2026021012&fh=20&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    Reply

      1. I hope your correct.

        Just the 2 days from the big storm have us out to June 22nd.

        I love June weather !!

        We were lucky the last 2 years finishing June 12th and 13th.

        I’m not a fan of finishing after the solstice.

        Reply

        1. If it were up to me school would never finish after the solstice. 🙂 And it would never start before September 1. 😉

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    1. This will be the type of event, mainly to the north, where the road conditions can deteriorate rapidly, and be nasty for a relatively short time, then improve rapidly.

      To the south, with less to fall, the existing treatment lingering on the roads (plus anything that is added) should keep conditions rather manageable.

      Reply

      2. There’s a ton of existing treatments still on the road (great point)

        Last week, we went up the southeast Expressway to visit a friend in Dracut, it was daytime and all the trees and bushes along the road are white from all the salt.

        Reply

    1. That run’s snowfall map is almost identical to my snowfall forecast. Don’t pay much attention to the numbers there. Roll mouse over the map and see the point to point snowfall amounts.

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        1. It shouldn’t be. I expect it to be right where my #’s are since I’m relying heavily on that guidance this system. 🙂

          This is not going to be a major event, just a light to borderline moderate one (depending on location). 🙂

          Reply

          1. My statement has nothing to do with your numbers.

            I am just saying that this particular model isn’t showing all that much snow. That is all. 🙂

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    1. YAWN. Until they acquire some “big bats” in the lineup, I am not very enthused right now. I will say that the pitching has improved though.

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    1. They have really picked up the snow removal here as yesterday they were everywhere removing piles or pushing back

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    2. I wouldn’t call it “non-event”. I’d call it minor, but it could have briefly moderate impact since a lot of the snow may come in a fairly short burst. Quick coverage of roads can make it treacherous for even just part of 1 hour, but that’s all it takes to get some spin-outs, etc.

      Reply

  15. Global guidance should be starting to figure out a non-phase outcome for 6 days from now. We’ll see if the ECMWF gets the message. It looked like it was starting to on the 00z an 06z operational, but again not a huge amount of weight put on those at this point from a forecasting standpoint as I continue to monitor ensemble trends.

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  16. It will be a slow process, but I see signs that the 12z GFS for NEXT week will be moving towards the cooler/colder simulation of the 00z Euro.

    For example, NEXT Thursday on the 12z GFS projects mid 30s, where on the 00z GFS, it projected 60F.

    Better small bubble of high pressure in SE Canada on the 12z run vs its 00z run.

    Reply

    1. Yes, the colder outcome will be what we see. Not as cold as recently, in terms of departure, but definitely going to avoid any stretches of “above normal” in favor of very brief milder moments in a prevailing seasonably cold pattern.

      Reply

  17. This morning according to those futurecast runs for the potential President’s Day event, it looks like mostly rain for SNE anyway. We would only miss a decent rain event passing just to our south with snow confined to our north.

    The tv Mets all are in sync…a “chance” of rain or snow for Monday.

    Reply

    1. That was based off 2 operational runs of 2 model, that showed that outcome for a couple cycles yesterday / last night.

      Should not have been shown on TV in “futurecast” form, and looks nothing like that today on the same computer models. I suppose some of them (or all of them) had no choice but to show something animated for that day. Boss’s orders!

      This solidifies what I always say about operational runs more than 4 days in advance.

      Reply

    1. Peeking at temps, it looks like its running colder than most other guidance and so perhaps, that is accounting for better snow ratios and thus, the higher accumulations ??????????

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    2. This model has been consistently higher for this event the past few days but really has no other model support. We’ll see if it is on to something or out to lunch. My guess is the latter.

      Reply

  20. Not weather related. Or maybe a bit considering the barn doors were closed due to cold. But I find our birds and critters interesting

    My oldest has an interesting experience at the barn

    She told me that Saturday a hawk (coopers hawk maybe) that hangs around the barn where granddaughters horse is boarded landed on my daughter’s head and then moved down to her back. It felt trapped in the barn maybe. So my daughter walked with it still on her back to the door and opened it.

    She said she could feel each of its talons but it never dug Into her or her jacket.

    Reply

  21. All 12z guidance now showing no phase and a miss to the south for President’s Day as TK suspected. Havent seen the 12s Euro and Euro AI yet but they had also trended that way in the 0z runs last night.

    Still a ways to go on this one and things could change.

    Looks pretty dry overall the next couple of weeks as well.

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  24. Pretty pathetic satellite image of the snowcover out West right now. Fortunately things look to improve a bit the next few weeks. We are headed back to Utah for a ski trip in mid March so hoping things improve by then.

    Colin McCarthy
    @US_Stormwatch
    14h

    Colorado, Utah, Oregon and Idaho officially have their worst early February snowpack in recorded history.

    https://x.com/US_Stormwatch/status/2021066226131517638?s=20

    Reply

      1. I was looking at Deer Valley and Snowbasin, UT as they are two areas we were considering going in March. They are at 85″ and 78″ on the year respectively. Yet Deer Valley has 129 of 202 trails open and Snowbasin 70 of 115 trails. They dont make much snow there but retain what they get pretty well. I think they will be fine if they get a couple decent storm cycles this month into early March.

        Meanwhile, Jay Peak VT is at a staggering 322″ on the year and most ski areas in New England now are at or near 100% open.

        Reply

  26. 12z Euro and Euro AI also out to sea with the President’s Day storm. AI is weak and way south but the 12z Euro op does still phase into a big ocean storm and scrapes ACK.

    At 6 days out, still need to watch this a few days more before writing it off.

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  29. 12z Euro EPS Ensemble Mean for President’s Day is pretty far southeast but still some members closer to the coast.

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=epsens&p=sfcmslp-meanmem&rh=2026021012&fh=144&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

    Same deal with 12z EPS AI

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=eps_aifsens&p=sfcmslp-meanmem&rh=2026021012&fh=144&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

    12z Canadian Ensembles still with decent spread as well…

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=cmceens&p=sfcmslp-meanmem&rh=2026021012&fh=156&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

    12 GEFS not even close to the other models with the mean over Florida.

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gefsens&p=sfcmslp-meanmem&rh=2026021012&fh=150&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

    12z ICON ensemble mean way southeast but a handful of stronger members close to the coast that would deliver a significant storm.

    So lean miss but too early to write it off completely.

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  33. That first area has arrived over me on radar and so far it’s doing …….. zippo! Still working on the dry air.

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      1. I think we have a few flakes in Woburn.

        Part 1 is being destroyed by dry air.

        This leads me to lean toward the lower end of my forecast ranges.

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            1. It was definitely going to be relatively mild compared to recent events – went over that in the discussion today.

              I still like my amounts – just leaning to the low side of them. The snow has picked up significantly now here and is accumulating.

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    1. When you have anomalous cold like that south of 40N, you’re prone to the big changes when the cold air mass lets go.

      Reply

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