Friday February 6 2026 Forecast (7:21AM)

138 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 6-7)

The complex evolution described in yesterday’s blog post is still expected to take place as noted then, but so you don’t have to go back and re-read it, here’s that section basically copied / pasted and tweaked a tad to be current. While high and mid level clouds increase from the west, lower clouds come in from the ocean on a northeasterly air flow today, and these lower clouds can produce a few coastal snow flurries. This is the start of a complex evolution of a weather system which brings our region snow on Saturday. Transfer from low pressure to our north to developing low pressure to our south and southeast takes place, the end result of which is a deepening ocean storm with an inverted trough swinging back through southeastern New England. While a general widespread light snowfall is expected, pockets of moderate accumulation can occur both in the hills of northwestern RI to central MA, more associated with the initial frontal boundary’s arrival and slowing, and more likely in the I-95 belt eastward with the ocean-effect / inverted trough combination. I put numbers to this in the detailed forecast below. At the conclusion of and following this event, in comes a shot of arctic air, along with wind, that will result in extremely cold wind chill readings but dry weather during Sunday. While the wind and cold ease slightly by Monday, it will remain fair and quite cold with arctic high pressure in control. By Tuesday look for a little more in the way of temperature moderation while high pressure continues to dominate with fair weather.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. A few coastal snow flurries. Highs 23-30. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. A few snow flurries early, then periods of snow late evening and overnight. Lows 13-20. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Cloudy. Periods of snow. Heavier snow showers likely at times I-95 belt eastward. Highs 20-27. Wind NE to N 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy evening with lingering snow showers early, including heavier snow showers likely MA South Shore to Cape Cod. Total snowfall accumulation for the event expected to be 1 to 3 inches in much of the area, but 2 to 4 inches in a few higher elevations of North Central MA and 3 to 6 inches from Cape Ann to the MA South Shore and possibly Cape Cod with isolated greater than 6 inch amounts possible east of the I-95 belt. Clearing overnight. Lows 0-7. Wind N to NW increasing to 15-25 MPH creating blowing snow and wind chill readings below to well below zero.

SUNDAY: Sunny. Highs 10-17. Wind NW 15-25 MPH. Wind chill often below zero.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows -5 +2 except 0-7 Cape Cod and some urban centers. Wind NW diminishing to 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Sunny. Highs 17-24. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows -3 to + 5 except 5-12 Cape Cod and urban centers. Wind NW to W under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sunny. Highs 25-32. Wind W to SW up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 11-15)

A little faster timing indicated for next unsettled weather threat which is a chance of snow from low pressure passing by just to our south later February 11 into early February 12, however not indicated to be a major storm. Fair weather follows with temperatures near to below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 16-20)

Up-and-down temperature pattern with one or two more unsettled weather potentials but no major storms expected.

138 thoughts on “Friday February 6 2026 Forecast (7:21AM)”

  1. Good morning and thank you TK.

    18 here, low 16

    Ocean: 39

    I see Ocean effect starting already. Seems to be expanding. I wonder if this becomes more than flurries.? Will be watching. Tom, Ssk. Is it snowing down there?

    Wordle: almost a train wreck for me. Hopelessly lost, until I got some letters in the correct position with gueses 4 and 5. Finally got it in 6. A true PHEW moment.

    Reply

  4. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rrfs_a&p=sn10_acc-imp&rh=2026020606&fh=40&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    The 6z RRFS A is an example of what makes this small scale event such a tough forecast.

    Definitely has the inverted trof feature …… 10-20 miles offshore.

    I really feel for the TV Mets, this is a no-win situation because this has high end potential if that is ashore over a small area and if its not, its 1-3″. Channel 5 probably playing it well, with 4-6″ in eastern areas, I think that’s what I saw on Cindy’s forecast this morning.

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  5. The 12Z Hrrr has the 500mb feature farther East than on the 6Z run. Likely translates to the inverted trough being off shore.
    We shall see how it plays out for the rest of the run. This will be 1-3 for Boston. We’ll know soon.

    Reply

  7. Thanks TK.

    Looking past this event,,,,6z GFS looks pretty good for the midweek threat next week with a general half foot of snow:

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2026020606&fh=150&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_ne&p=snku_024h-imp&m=gfs

    6z GFS AI even more robust with a general 6-12″ and pummels Maine with well over a foot of snow as the storm bombs out over the ocean and retrogrades.

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=aigfs&p=qpf_048h-imp&rh=2026020606&fh=168&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    0z Euro AI also with a general 5-6″ though 6z backed off:

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_aifs&p=sn10_024h-imp&rh=2026020600&fh=150&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    So some more deep winter the next 7 days with two more snow events and a period of bitter cold in between.

    Into next weekend and beyond, most models showing a period of moderation and then a cold reload later towards the last week of the month but they have been wildly inconsistent in the long range so take them with a grain of salt.

    Reply

  8. Outside shot that if the inverted trough ends up over Logan with some ocean enhancement, and the midweek storm materializes, Boston could be approaching 50″ (or about average snow) for the season by end of next week.

    Reply

  9. Nice Wordle save, JPD.

    I had what I like to think of as midnight magic. No letters first guess. Two in correct position and one not with second. And word just came to me with a 3

    Reply

  16. Well, the 12z stuff has reinforced my thinking that there is a 90% chance that very small scale inverted trof event will occur over land, as opposed to over Boston Harbor.

    And, its going to be a nowcasting event.

    I don’t even think the 12z short range models tomorrow will even have consistency on where they think it happens, in spite of the fact that it will be 3 to 4 hrs before the event maximizes.

    Reply

  17. The bands moving in from the ocean and the inverted trough are
    wildcards to the snow forecast. These inverted troughs are often
    associated with narrow mesoscale bands of enhanced snowfall where
    the low level convergence sets up. We also have potential for
    localized snow squalls along the arctic front. There are decent
    model signals given strong low level frontogenesis, relatively steep
    0-3km lapse rates and some low level CAPE. Snow squall parameter is
    highlighted across eastern New Eng Sat afternoon. In addition, model
    soundings show very favorable snow growth for a few hours in eastern
    New Eng with 20-30 units of omega in the DGZ suggesting locally
    brief heavy snowfall rates of 1″+/hr within any enhanced snow bands.
    However, forecasting the exact location and axis of where these
    heavier snow bands is very challenging often leading to low
    confidence forecasts in location of potentially higher impact
    snowfall. This is a situation where snowfall amounts can vary
    greatly over short distances.

    Credit to Norton NWS

    Reply

    1. That last paragraph is what a majority of the public will miss and its very difficult to create a snowmap for this possible outcome. So, I continue to feel for Mets on this one. Very, very difficult !

      Reply

  21. I remember one inverted trof event up on coastal Maine. Way back in the 1980s when I went to school in NH and we had Maine TV stations.

    It was extreme and not saying its going to happen this time.

    I think Kennebunk, ME rec’d 18-24″ of snow. It was a tiny vortice and perhaps it was Wells, ME a few miles away had nothing.

    I find this winter type of event, fascinating !

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  23. And yes, also on the table is the inverted trof ends up just offshore and everyone gets 1-2″.

    Even that ……. should be a frustrating, but fun radar loop to watch.

    Reply

    1. Inverted trough, Ocean Effect, AND Arctic front all
      interacting with each other. Somewhere it will definitely OVER PRODUCE. The question is where???????

      Logan could get an inch, South Weymouth a foot and Gloucester a foot. Or any other combination of locations and amounts.

      Reply

  29. Thanks, TK.

    Aberdeen has not seen a single glimpse of the sun in 15 days. That’s the official account. But it’s been longer than that, according to some. https://x.com/DandyScottyBee/status/2019695215381246316

    Brits have a way of colorfully describing their weather.
    https://x.com/NoContextBrits/status/2019776707771748826

    And yet, I REALLY want to live there permanently. I do, despite the weather. I’m an expired product in the U.S. Don’t feel at home here anymore. I’d miss SNE weather and certain things like the Bruins and Red Sox.

    Reply

    1. I talked to my aunt in northern England yesterday and she is said it is very depressing. Cold wind, clouds, rain all the time this winter.

      Reply

  40. Winter Weather Advisory is up for a good chunk of eastern MA while a Winter Storm Watch is up for Essex County.

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  41. Wild amts on the 12z HRW models. Focused on Cape Ann, SE coastal NH, north shore.

    But wild, I think one of them paints 18-24 inches in a very small area up around Cape Ann and the SE NH coastline.

    Reply

      1. Yes, I think that’s a reasonable message to the public, that Cape Ann can get more or a lot more.

        Still feel for the Mets. Like, parts of Cape Ann could get 15″ and another part within Cape Ann gets 2″.

        Reply

  42. Eric F and Terry E posting today on twitter, this inverted trof has their attention.

    Eric has picked a location he thinks mostly likely to be affected.

    I’d post, but that didn’t open last time, so hopefully someone can.

    Reply

      1. north shore and Cape Ann is what Eric F circled. the bottom of the circle technically made it to about Jamaica Plain and to Marshfield area, but you can tell he was highlighting just N and NE of Boston. Climatologically, thats a location these are more likely to occur, but doesn’t mean it will this time.

        Reply

  43. Filtered sun and 29.5F here in Coventry CT. A lot of these short range models also showing some enhanced snowfall here in Tolland County (nothing to the tune of Eastern MA) but up to 3-4″ perhaps due to orographics. I would be pleased with that!

    Reply

  44. The inverted trough setup that fascinated me the most was the early January event here in CT in 2011. Inverted trough set up NW to SE from NYS through SW CT. It dropped 13″ of snow in a very short period of time in Waterbury during the PM rush hour catching many people off guard. The trough then lifted northeast through my area while weakening, but still dropped 4″. I think it ended up only dropping an inch or two in Eastern MA.

    Remember this vividly though as it kicked off the January 2011 snow blitz where we received 60″ on the month. The Jan 12 blizzard happened about 5 days later. Found this article on the event….

    https://adiabat.wordpress.com/2011/01/06/norlun-troughs/

    It was pretty well forecast but the exact placement and intensity was in question, much like our situation tomorrow.

    Reply

  47. Salt Lake City 2″ on the year and Boise, ID 1″ while Charlotte, NC has had 11″. Dont see that too often….

    Ben Noll
    @BenNollWeather
    Feb 5

    This might be one of the weirdest weather maps you’ll ever see.

    It highlights all the places that have had *less snow* than Charlotte, North Carolina this season.

    That includes large parts of the West. The snow drought there has been tremendous.

    https://x.com/BenNollWeather/status/2019398100423700618?s=20

    Reply

  53. The Mansfield MA Historical Society, in 2018, put on a retrospective of the Blizzard of 1978 on its 40th anniversary. I was fortunate to get a copy of the PowerPoint slide from that presentation. Here are a few of the slides. The photos appeared in a special edition of the Mansfield MA NEWS:

    https://photos.app.goo.gl/bEi5s6d9j9oiN5Qr5

    (Note: 45″ of snow reported was too high. With the drifting and the leftover snow from the January 20 weeks before, it was difficult for an amateur like me to get an accurate measure. Taunton had an official measurement of 38.5″. Foxborough, just to the north of Mansfield, reported 32.0″ officially.)

    Reply

    2. 12z Euro AI, 12z GFS, 12z GFS AI, and 12z CMC all have this system as well but it misses south of us.

      Ensemble support is there for something too.

      Definitely need to continue watching next weekend.

      Midweek threat is still there too but looking minor/less impressive on the 12z guidance.

      Reply

    1. interesting… that 500 mb feature is so evident and it appears to be more west than modeled, hmmm inverted trough more inland than off shore??????/

      Reply

    1. I have a sneaky feeling that the Winter Storm watch and/or warning Will be extended down the coast to include Boston and South Shore areas.

      Reply

      1. It might well need to be

        However, with many more models focusing north, they might stay with the advisory and then, if the HRRR starts to verify and they see it making its way in intense form down to the south shore, have to go from an advisory straight to a warning.

        Reply

        1. Excuse me it may have been advisory , question is it possible now that South shore may now be out of heavy zone & Noth now is more likely

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  63. Thinking about it a bit, there’s really 2 convergence zones.

    There’s the well talked about inverted trof and I really believe that’s for somewhere in far eastern Mass.

    But there’s the arctic front and on simulations, it has its own squall line. In theory, that might be held in place in central New England as the mini circulation in eastern Mass rotates down the coast. And that’s why I think we’re seeing some models have a 2nd max out by Worcester and even a bit westward towards where Mark lives. That’s the arctic front coming to a temporary few hour halt with its own convergence zone possibly stuck in place.

    How many times is it the advantage in winter storms to be out by 495, but that may be the region that sits below both snow enhanced areas.

    Reply

  64. Keeping it real, let’s not kid ourselves that nailing down the specifics of the upcoming event to the nearest inch or two is going to be anything resembling easy.

    When you deal with sub-synoptic, i.e., mesoscale and even microscale features, you can have such a large variation over such a small area, trying to pinpoint down to miles and half miles of how that’s going to play out is ……. difficult.

    You can come up with your best guess only based on the information you have, and what you know of the type of system, and the geography of the region it’s impacting, and then just hope that you’re at least in the same ballpark when it all takes place.

    Reply

    1. Yes, I do feel for you and all the other Mets out there.

      We, on this blog, understand what you’re up against.

      But the majority of the public probably looks at their weather app on their electronic and there’s no way on earth, it’s going to have the detail to come close to getting this right.

      And even a TV map.

      One of those temp maps when it’s 32F on my Washington but it’s 70F in the valleys and you see the map trying to fit 8 or 10 (3F) contour lines btwn Mt Washington’s temp and the nearby valley temp.

      That’s what kind of snowmap probably might be needed here, but how do you show 2 to (10-12) over 5 miles?

      Reply

  66. Arrrggghhhh ! Just failed today’s wordle.

    Seeing it, could have gotten it, but didn’t come across my mind.

    Onto tomorrow 🙂

    Reply

    2. I think ch 10 has the closest map to what may transpire. Of course some higher totals possible. This is just my opinion for what it is worth. We shall see tomorrow.

      Reply

  70. Flakes flying here with sun peaking through.

    This means “unsettled” tomorrow to say the least.

    “The Devil is beating his wife”. That’s what my grandmother used to say. 😉

    Reply

    1. (See above.) And yes, that’s not set in stone, but based on the latest info, they are the most likely to see the highest amounts.

      Reply

  75. There’s always a bit of an amusement to hear that a ski race is cancelled due to snow. 😉

    But I totally get why.

    In this case it’s the first training run of the women’s downhill being called off in Italy due to too much snow / falling snow. The course cannot be groomed adequately and the visibility reduction is too dangerous to run in besides.

    I can tell you one thing, there will be no shortage of snow nor cold weather for the Winter Olympics, which started (early competition) Wednesday and yesterday, but the opening ceremony (already took place) is airing on NBC tonight.

    Again, one of my favorite events are olympics. People focus on money, planning, traffic, etc., and I get that, but the bigger picture and the meaning of this event is SO MUCH MORE IMPORTANT than ALL of that. And it always will be.

    Reply

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