Thursday February 5 2026 Forecast (7:14AM)

187 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 5-9)

High pressure brings dry and cold weather through Friday with abundant sunshine anticipated today, but more limited sun Friday due to both an increasing in high and mid level cloudiness from the west with the approach of a trough and cold front, and lower clouds from the ocean in the coastal plain with a low level northeasterly air flow developing. After this, a complex process of frontal passage and upper level energy transfer from low pressure to our north to developing low pressure to our south and southeast takes place, the end result of which is a deepening ocean storm with an inverted trough swinging back through southeastern New England. This entire process takes place during the calendar day hours of Saturday, resulting in periods of snow, the finale of which is expected to be an inverted trough induced batch of moderate to heavy snow for a couple hours moving north to south across far eastern areas late Saturday afternoon into early Saturday night. The complex evolution results in an uneven expectation for snowfall amounts, which will be reflected in the detailed accumulation forecast that appears on the Saturday night portion of the forecast below. Following this event, in comes a shot of arctic air, along with wind, that will result in extremely cold wind chill readings but dry weather during Sunday. While the wind and cold ease slightly by Monday, it will remain fair and quite cold with arctic high pressure in control.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 25-32. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 15-22. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 23-30. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Chance of snow overnight. Lows 13-20. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Cloudy. Periods of snow. Heavier snow showers likely Cape Ann to MA South Shore late-day. Highs 20-27. Wind NE to N 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy evening with lingering snow showers early, including heavier snow showers likely MA South Shore to Cape Cod early. Total snowfall accumulation for the event expected to be 1 to 3 inches in much of the area, but 2 to 4 inches in a few higher elevations of North Central MA and 3 to 6 inches from Cape Ann to the MA South Shore and possibly Cape Cod. Clearing overnight. Lows 0-7. Wind N to NW increasing to 15-25 MPH creating blowing snow and wind chill readings below to well below zero.

SUNDAY: Sunny. Highs 10-17. Wind NW 15-25 MPH. Wind chill often below zero.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows -5 +2 except 0-7 Cape Cod and some urban centers. Wind NW diminishing to 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Sunny. Highs 17-24. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 10-14)

Fair with temperature moderation early period. Unsettled weather potential increases later period.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 15-19)

Up-and-down temperature pattern with one or two more unsettled weather potentials but no major storms expected.

187 thoughts on “Thursday February 5 2026 Forecast (7:14AM)”

  2. Good morning and thank you TK.

    14 here and that was low.

    Ocean: 39

    Interesting day come Saturday. Great discussion on the evolution of that event.
    RRFSA, 3KMNAM and RDPS all depict the event pretty well. Global models, not so much. Waiting to see how it plays out.

    WORDLE: 3

    1. Super again !

      You are consistent in 3’s and I have permanent reservations on the 5 train, which I am very happy with.

      Yes, short range models on this Saturday event as it is a small scale event. Globals won’t get the right detail on it 48-60 hrs out.

  3. Tk you did mention NE flow tomorrow. Any chance of any OES snow sometime tomorrow? Or does it come Friday evening ahead of the troghiness precip?

    1. Thank you Tom.

      I have been doing better of late. I contribute that to the following:

      1. A plain and simple lucky streak
      2. I have been trying new words most every day
      3. Related to #2, I am constantly thinking of new words to try, which also gives me more words to guess when necessary
      4. I have stopped making wild guesses without regard to the fact that they use letters already known NOT to be in the word
      5. I have tried to concentrate more and not allow my mind to wonder

  5. Tk I know above saying later day Saturday ? I took an overtime 7-3 shift Saturday do you think I’m good

    1. SSK, he said SNOW ALL day Saturday. You’re going to have fun.
      Best of luck. Likely (but not certain) less snow up here than down your way.

  6. Thanks TK.

    I find it interesting that the North and South Shores have the best chance of o.e. but not Boston. I suppose here in Quincy will be “on the fence”?

    1. With OES, it is generally that way, but not always. Boston has seen some really decent OES events. Here in JP we got 7 inches last year, 1/2 of which was OES. IT can and does happen.

      The set up this time, just favors Cape Ann and South shore.
      It depends upon the exact wind direction and the configuration of the shore line.

  11. Wordle 4 for me too

    Great 4s and a crowded car. Finally broke my five streak. Tom, you will too.

  13. Thanks, TK.

    Yesterday was a brutal day at the Washington Post. Several acquaintances of mine – veteran reporters in the field – got laid off. From the sports desk to the books section to most of international coverage, all gone.

    What’s strange is how poorly American newspapers have fared in recent years compared to our peers. It hasn’t been easy in countries like Canada, France, UK, or Germany. But their newspapers still do fairly well, haven’t let go of key staff writers or reduced their international presence.

    I notice on my trips to the UK that newspapers are still sold in supermarkets and quite a few other places. In The Netherlands, they’re still in some of the larger cafes, that is, the restaurants subscribe and have hard copies on tables for customers to read. And yes, I see young people, who of course all have smartphones, too, reading these physical newspapers.

    It’s a VERY different situation here. And I find it kind of depressing and unsettling.

    Twitter and Bluesky are not real news sources. Certainly not reliable or credible ones. Cable news on both the political right and left are not reliable or credible news sources. Yet I do think that this is where the majority of Americans nowadays consume news. This is troubling.

    2. Totally agree Joshua. Recently I have been in places like Starbucks or Dunkin (not as many sit down DD’s as there used to be). I’ll bring my laptop and put in on the table and then open a paper that I just purchased (finding places that sell them is harder and harder). The covert but quizzical looks I get are interesting.

      Looking forward to the snow event on Saturday. Usually OES works out fairly well for Hingham but of course wind direction is everything.

      Having a tooth pulled today and a bone graft done….fun!

      1. Respectfully I hope your prediction is wrong . It would be a shame if the coach does not get it , this guy has done everything right & then some . And Drake doing a complete turnaround from season # 1 . Regardless of what Happens with the picks tonight & the game on Sunday we as pats fans have a lot to be happy with . I am an extremely happy patriots fan with how this year went & can’t wait till next year already.

    2. You will have a most interesting day. Hmmm like 8 inches for
      Marshfield. Something like that.

      Where I am, about 4 or so.

  24. Keith, I’m sorry to hear about your tooth and bone graft.

    While I am not an anti-dentite (quoting from Kramer in Seinfeld), dental work can be annoying and painful.

  25. I will continue to be of opinion, that the global models are useless on Saturday’s small scale, inverted trof event until we are much closer to Saturday’s event. Just too small scale an event for them to handle.

    1. Totally agree.

      Let’s see if the RRFSA earns it’s keep with this event.
      REALLY setting up to be most interesting. With these models, there is room for a major bust, then again they could be correct and then there is room for it to move a bit more West and even clock Boston.

      Yet another event where no one knows how much snow leading up to the event. So interesting…..

  26. The high end (10%) map for the eastern 1/4 of Mass might be the best map and possibly underdone for that small part of the state.

    It may be a little overdone for the other 3/4 of the state, but not by much.

    1. Yes, even the global models starting to key in, I am surprised.

      I have seen coastal Maine events, inverted trofs like this, in the past really overacheive.

      4-6 inches forecast and a small or localized area end up with like, 12-16 inches.

        1. Agreed ….so long as the 500 mb feature, its location especially, is accurately being simulated. But, yes, this could be really fun !!

  33. Boston is about 7 inches above average on snow-to-date. This will increase modestly in 48-60 hours.

    1. Modestly? Interesting choice of words.
      That could mean an inch or 2 or it could mean 3 or 4 or even 5 or so. 🙂

      Look forward to any updates on your snow amounts.

      Looking more and more interesting. We shall see how it all plays out.

      1. JPD this evolution is the most difficult mesoscale winter forecast to make, even more difficult than low level cold.

        I wouldn’t be surprised if Cape Ann, the South Shore, and yes even Boston ended up 6+ for the upcoming event.

  34. NWS service not so bullish on snow. Hmmm

    High pressure continues to dominate the pattern over southern New
    England ahead of an arctic frontal passage expected late Friday
    night into Saturday. This is still expected to be a moisture-
    starved frontal passage. Light, fluffy snow showers are expected
    with this front still, along with the risk for snow squalls as
    it moves through. In terms of totals, most could expect to see
    around an inch of snow, except towards the eastern coastline and
    the outer Cape in particular. Totals towards the eastern
    coastline may end up higher due to lingering ocean effect
    processes, which guidance has captured pretty well.
    Accumulations there could be closer to 2-3 inches, with spots on
    the outer Cape possibly reaching borderline Winter Weather
    Advisory criteria with totals possibly reaching 4 inches. Will
    continue to monitor how this trends.

    1. I think, for that part of the discussion, they haven’t changed it much in 24-36, maybe even 48 hrs.

      Let’s see what they think when they re-vamp this part of the discussion.

  36. A couple of Netflix notes.

    A new season of Lincoln Lawyer is available starting today.

    There is a new movie available called RELAY.
    It stars Lilly James and Sam Worthington and it is quite a thriller with a dramatic twist near the end. Most enjoyable film to watch.

    1. So, I somewhat discount what the Euro shows for snowfall and more trust the meteorology in the setup to deliver what the short range models and now, even a few of the other global models are showing.

  40. 12z GFS, GFS AI, Euro, and Euro AI seem to all be in alignment for now on the next snow threat in the Wed-Thurs timeframe next week. Wouldnt be a biggie, likely light to moderate accumulations, although the GFS does have some coastal redevelopment and a storm that bombs out and retrogrades into Downeast Maine.

    Beyond middle of next week, I’m noticing the models, both operational and AI, are wildly inconsistent with each other and themselves from run to run in terms of storm threats and the overall pattern as a whole. They seem to be really struggling with the strength of the NAO block and the Pacific PNA transition to more neutral/negative.

    I have noticed that in the short to mid range, the models seem to zero on the stronger block and adjust colder as we get closer in time. Would definitely continue to hedge against any sustained warmups in the long range.

    3. Seen that on the opposite season too.

      Mid to long range: its going to get hot

      Comes into the short range: and its changed to simulating more mild to warm weather.

      Haven’t had a summer like that lately. When we’ve had a long range hint of heat, it has usually happened.

  41. Judah Cohen
    @judah47
    3h

    He could..go..all..the…way!” Last year Eastern US #winter ended with a whimper but this year could be different as #cold &/or #snow likely goes the distance as signal from #PolarVortex (PV) disruption next week arrives in the troposphere. Still looking for stretched PV late Feb

    https://x.com/judah47/status/2019428167354839203?s=20

    1. I think there will still be action, but I think off shore this time around. We shall see. Hope I am dead wrong.

    1. Like the UKMET, it seems to be aligning the inverted trough further west over my area and has about 4″ for me.

    1. Maybe it will come back west late tonight/early tomorrow morning. Perhaps models still adjusting?

  48. Saturdays event seems akin as to predicting where a severe thunderstorm will hit in the summer. Pretty impossible to predict where the jackpot snow will be.

    1. Dave’s gonna keep trying till the bitter end but I think this one is going to end up a nowcasting event!

      1. I will keep looking, yes.

        And we probably won’t know until Saturday as you stated. 🙂

    1. I don’t think that the inverted trough feature has been programmed into the ICON. 🙂 🙂 🙂

  52. Extreme Cold Watch up for all of CT and Worcester county Saturday evening through Sun Afternoon.
    From Ryan Hanrahan
    This is issued for wind chills at or below -20F for 3 consecutive hours.

  53. A pack of coyotes were recently spotted crossing the ice in Boston Harbor. It’s time for them to start mating.

    1. 18z GFS is pretty much the reverse for the midweek threat next week…3-6″ in CT and 1-2″ eastern MA.

  58. 25 being very aggressive with their numbers. not surprised someone does really well with this set up.

    Thanks

    2. Not gonna lie, I hope it is not my backyard. I have finally had enough of the snow on the ground.

  59. 00z HRRR coming around to possible intense heavy band of snow with an inverted trof, behaving as TK states above in his forecast, developing north and moving south.

    Not really focused on what it shows for snow.

    But some of those simulated echoes looks real intense, convective.

    Ocean effect is not usually like that, it’s like it was Sunday, it can be persistent and moderate.

    This has an added element to it. It may not last hrs on end, but when it pivots through, it can dump a lot and quick.

      1. Can see the lighter blues inland ….. light snow

        But the echoes in the eastern 1/4 of Mass show dark blues and even greens, for snow !!!!!!

        1. I think. Assuming we are to be under/near the inverted trof.

          Away from the influence of that and it’s 1-2”

          This simulation for the inverted trof, convective like snow is north shore, cape Ann, Boston, maybe its suburbs, south shore, then rotating down towards the cape.

  60. My concern is, I think those small areas of heavier snows, wherever they end up, could be underdone.

    Not necessarily underdone for how long they could last. But potentially underdone for how intense they could be.

      1. And that NE low level 850 mb jet is strengthening a bit with time as it sinks southward through southern New England.

        I’m not suggesting a clobber of 2 ft or anything, but do I think in the eastern 1/4 of Mass, a few towns could accumulate 6” of fluff in 2 hrs? You bet !! Saturday afternoon ish

    1. This is going to be a lot closer to now casting where this sets up.

      Small scale, not a wide area of heavy snow and these are fickle where they set up.

      I think the signal grows louder for it the next 24-36 hrs, but will we have it exactly pinned down where it forms, I’m not so sure it won’t be til it happens.

      1. The new 3km NAM has a western piece of it extending towards Lowell and lawrence, so that’s the great unknown at this moment. Where?

  62. Seeing .3 to .5 melted, small zones of that, where the HRRR and 2 Nams have their heaviest snow. That’s a good amt of liquid falling into a turning colder atmosphere.

  64. The RRFS A even has the lightest shade of gray in a couple spots under its simulated convective cells for lightning density.

  65. If this materializes, there’s going to be some people stunned at how much it might snow in a relatively short period of time Saturday.

    Not a lot of areas, but a few towns where folks shake their heads at 6-10 or localized 8-12 inch amts. And then, they drive 5 miles west and there’s 2 inches.

    I want to land under this thing !!!!!!!

      1. Tom, you’re very impressive. You’ve been concerned about this particular setup for days. If it materializes, you’ll have my utmost respect. If it doesn’t materialize, you’ll still have my respect. You need to go to school for meteorology. You have a knack for picking out the finer details while maintaining a strong grasp of the big picture.

          1. These models are so variable as it relates to the exact details. Some models portray 5 inches while others illustrate 1 inch in the exact same location. It just goes to show that even the high resolution models are unable to pinpoint the exact locations of heavier snow. Nonetheless, the signal is clear. Someone or someone’s is going to be surprised. We won’t know until it happens, but the potential for localized areas of heavy snow exists.

      1. The MVP for the year was announced last night at NFL honors and was Matt Stafford. He got 24 first place votes to Maye’s 23 according to Steve Burton on ch. 4.

        1. Correct and I have no issue with it. Maye getting that many votes and 2nd place is impressive.

          IMO anybody whining that he didn’t win is just being a cranky toddler in a sandbox that didn’t pick up their favorite plastic shovel before their friend who was already in there.

  69. Lake Erie is 4% ice coverage away from being 100%, something that has not happened in 3 decades.

    Boston’s winter-to-date is its coldest in 22 years.

          1. The depth of Superior and Michigan make them nearly impossible to completely freeze over, given the process by which a body of water will freeze. They also have too much wind to allow a stable ice cover for their entire coverage area.

            The most extensive ice coverage on the Great Lakes as a whole occurred in 2014 and 2019 when there was an average of 93.5% ice coverage.

            Lake Erie, the one now nearly 100% ice covered, has not seen this since 1996. The time before that was 1979.

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