DAYS 1-5 (MAY 29 – JUNE 2)
We now have an omega blocking pattern, classic for springtime, across the US, with our region sitting under the eastern member of dual low pressure troughs on either side of a high pressure ridge. This pattern has some staying power and will re responsible for cooler than average and unsettled weather. A vigorous upper low and associated surface low will drop south southeastward from Canada today into Saturday before departing mid weekend to bring us our first round of unsettled weather with variety. While this system is good for an accumulating snow threat in the mountains to our north, the closest it comes to “wintry” weather in the WHW forecast area is a potential mix of rain and wet snow in the Monadnock Region’s higher elevations Saturday morning. Before that, we get a shot of light rainfall ahead of the low’s arrival late today or this evening, a round of showers and possible thunderstorms tonight, then a back-lash of rain and drizzle as the surface system moves off to our southeast during Saturday – morning to early afternoon to the north and midday into evening further to the south. Some improvement is indicated for Sunday, but the next disturbance will drop out of Canada into the trough for additional shower and possible thunderstorm chances Sunday evening into Monday before we dry out somewhat but still retain the chance of a pop-up shower on Tuesday.
TODAY: Limited sun / lots of clouds. Rain chances increase north to south late-day. Highs 63-70. Wind NW 5-15 MPH with gusts 20-25 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Slight chance of a thunderstorm. Lows 40-47. Wind W 5-15 MPH with gusts 20-25 MPH, shifting to N.
SATURDAY: Mainly cloudy. Rainy periods southern NH an northern MA mostly morning to early afternoon (may mix with wet snow higher elevations of southwestern NH) and southern MA through eastern CT and RI midday to early evening. Temperatures fall to 36-43 northern MA and southern NH, coldest in higher elevations, and 44-51 elsewhere in the morning then recover to late-day highs 51-58 regionwide. Wind NE to N 15-25 MPH, gusts 35-55 MPH, strongest in coastal areas.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 46-53. Wind NW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts, diminishing overnight.
SUNDAY: Partly sunny. A pop-up shower possible. Highs 62-69. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT / MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows 50-57. Highs 63-70. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT / TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. A shower possible. Lows 53-60. Highs 65-72. Wind NW to N 5-15 MPH.
DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 3-7)
Omega blocking pattern keeps our region under a trough of low pressure with a few shower chances and temperatures below normal.
DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 8-12)
Omega blocking pattern weakens slightly but remains in place with temperatures near to below normal and a few unsettled weather chances, though the pattern is not looking overly wet either.
Thank you TK. We need the rain!
Unfortunately even in this unsettled pattern, we’re not going to get that much. A little benefit from tomorrow, but it’s not to be maximized.
Focus of heavier precip is rather narrow and mostly north of this area, though it does get down in here breifly.
In terms of snow, significant accumulation limited to mountains mainly. I see maximum potential of 4 to 8 on the highest peaks like Mt. Washington but because the SRG is likely a bit too cold (we’re still needing to learn some biases in anomalous events) I’d expect a lot of sleet may be involved so the astronomical amounts being painted by some guidance will not come to fruition.
Thank you, TK.
Good morning and thank you TK
60 up from 55
Ocean: 55
WORDLE: 4 thought I had it in 3, but had the wrong last letter.
Well done, JpDave !
Thanks Tom
I also got it in 4. I have a feeling that I had the same word as you for the third guess.
If it ends in “K”, you did. 🙂 🙂 🙂
I guess I should have mentioned SPOILER????
That’s the one!
🙂 🙂 🙂
Nice JPD
Thank you.
I have had the three middle letters lately . It’s been first and last letter choices I’ve struggled with. Double choices
https://ibb.co/Ft0jsyB
Thanks TK !
Wordle: 5
Nice Tom.
https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/goes/sector_band.php?sat=G19§or=can&band=09&length=24
500 mb disturbance now down by James Bay.
Today is my “half birthday”! 🙂
I believe it’s TK’s daughter’s “half” as well.
In 6 months November 29 actual birthday.
Happy half birthday
Thanks Vicki!
While how significant the rain will be remains a question, there is going to be quite a wind surge working its way down the east coast of New England tomorrow.
As the sfc low slides SSE, the wind under the low pressure will be temporarily quite light, but as the low slides further south, southeast, a potent northeast jet will also slide in that direction and when that comes overhead, there may be quite a wind burst, especially at and near the coast.
It is a potent NE jet for a few hrs, I do wonder if the rain is slightly underdone in far eastern areas on the models. Maybe its the short duration of how long it lasts.
Thanks TK
Thank you, TK. 61 up from 48. I know it happened but not all that often. Our low yesterday was just before midnight rather than in the early morning hours.
Apparently, I’ve moved from residing in the comfy 5 car to the PHEW car. After 3 guesses, I knew there were only 3 possible correct solutions. Of course I picked the correct one last.
Wordle 6
You made it. Welcome aboard!!
https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/goes/sector_band.php?sat=G19§or=na&band=GEOCOLOR&length=24
A different view perspective of the closed low dropping south.
Its kind of blocked up in the Atlantic overall, with a big low west of Europe, kind of stopping a low just south of Nova Scotia from moving, which kind of forces this uncommon dropping of the 500 mb from nearly due north of us.
https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/goes/sector_band.php?sat=G19§or=na&band=09&length=24
12z HRRR
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=sfcwind_mslp&rh=2026052912&fh=24&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=sfcwind_mslp&rh=2026052912&fh=28&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
Talking about this earlier.
Simulated 12z tomorrow morning shows light winds under the sfc low and then 4 hrs later, whooooosh. I think the arrival and for a few hrs along the immediate coastline could see some very strong NNE wind gusts.
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=refcmp&rh=2026052912&fh=28&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
This is also our best timeframe for rain, when that narrow, but potent NE jet passes overhead for a few hrs. A very brief atmospheric jet off the Atlantic.
Watching a new series on Netflix call Nemesis
It is a detective/crime drama/mystery that is a little different.
MOST interesting and enjoyable. Note: There is some violence in this.
I’ll add to my list. I’m looking for a new series. Thank you.
It’s a good one, I think anyway for what that is worth. 🙂
Did you watch the mentalist?
I don’t think so. Sounds like an old show.
Nope didn’t watch it. Not available on Netflix and cost money on Prime. So, nope didn’t watch it.
Darn. I have prime with Amazon prime. (I think 😉 )
NEMESIS is on Netflix.
I did see that. I have Netflix too. Will watch this weekend
currently 67 here.
Pretty nice day, so far.
https://radar.weather.gov/station/KCXX/standard
It’s on the way!!!
Thanks, TK!
72 with mostly sunny skies.
Congratulations, Sue, to your son, to you and your family on his graduation tonight!!!
Congratulations to all family members here who finished their studies this spring! 🙂
Awesome and Congrats to Sue’s son and all !!
Approaching rain is now showing on local radar
https://radar.weather.gov/station/KBOX/standard
69 here. touched 70 awhile ago.
I’d appreciate any thoughts on how prevalent rain drops are going to be on Monday in the southern NH area. We have a group trying to hike Mount Monadnock and a picnic-type outing for about 90 students near Keene that afternoon and evening. We don’t have good indoor arrangements to it is more of an all or nothing if the showers are of any significance. Thanks for whatever anyone can offer.
As of now: 60% chance of showers, but they look fairly light.
TK would you think a mostly dry day with a few bits of rain or more of a drizzly day with little real water falling?
Fingers crossed for what sounds like a really fun day
Thank you TK!
Thank you Captain and Tom for your congrats to my son. They have decided to go for the outdoor ceremony so this should be interesting. I can literally feel the rain coming and it doesn’t start until 6:00.
Wordle: 4
Nice 4. Good luck tonight.
Radar
https://radar.weather.gov/station/KBOX/standard
Awesome 4 and hoping really hard for rain to stay away.
88 degrees here in Sarasota with a 76 dew point heat index 99 degrees. Coming back to RI. Tomorrow. Looks like a bumpy plane ride once past Virginia Beach.
Sounds like a good time to come back to New England! Safe travels.
https://radar.weather.gov/station/KCXX/standard
Decent amount of lightning with these thunderstorms nearing Montreal.
Thanks, TK.
This is the tropical blog that SAK wrote.
I will share it again a couple times over the weekend!
https://stormhq.blog/2026/05/29/hurricane-season-starts-june-1/
It’s a good write-up!
Meanwhile in the Pacific.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=epac&fdays=7
Only a few drops of rain here so far this evening.
If I have the correct area, looks as if there is a Charlie hole over graduation area
Thanks TK.
Surprised I haven’t seen JP or Tom lose it over temps tomorrow. 50’s dropping into the 40’s and a lovely late May windchill of 35. Yes, I know I love all the weather too just bit 35 windchill in nearly June.
Thankfully I am working both days this weekend. Back in the travel business again.
Anywho enjoy the lovely late May Day tomorrow. 🙂
Nah, it’s just one day is’all. It’s not a week of that shit.
Agree. And It’s kind of fun to follow this weather swing.
A very late Wordle 4…. I tried to clamp it down but it clanged off instead..,,
Very nice.
I thought I heard a clanking sound, but it turned out to be a clanging sound instead.
🙂
Love it. 😉
New post…