Thursday February 12 2026 Forecast (8:29AM)

71 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 12-16)

Back-side influence of upper low pressure (and a larger surface storm well to our east and northeast) will continue today. This comes in the form of morning snow showers from the Seacoast of NH through northeastern MA with lots of coastal cloudiness, and a gusty breeze across the region through the day. A difference between this post-storm air mass and many others this winter is that this one is not of arctic origin, and while the wind definitely has a bite, the less-cold air mass combined with the higher sun angle will make the breezy conditions more tolerable today, although that sun I mentioned will probably have to give up sky to more cloudiness as the day goes on – similar to but to a lesser degree than yesterday. High pressure to our southwest expands northeastward enough to shut the wind down and clear the sky more for tonight and Friday. We then look to a small but potent disturbance at upper levels with a surface trough reflection to move through the region on Saturday. While most of that day will see fair weather, there is a decent shot of one or two rounds of snow showers between the pre-dawn and sunset hours – basically a day to just keep an eye on the sky and radar if you have outside and travel plans, as any of these snow showers can be visibility-cutters, albeit for brief periods of time. This weekend is a holiday weekend for many, and as we get to Sunday we see fair and seasonable weather, but will be keeping an eye on low pressure to our southwest. This system has been under the expected media scrutiny all week (will it? won’t it?). I do not think we’re in from a hit from this system as it fails to phase with another system well to the north. This leaves us with the expectation for fair weather here again for Monday, though it may start as a cloudy day with the system passing by to our south before the sun returns for a while. However, more clouds arrive from the west later, these being associated with the northern system that the southern system will not be phasing with.

TODAY: Lots of clouds eastern coastal areas with some snow flurries NH Seacoast and northeastern MA into mid morning, otherwise a sun/cloud mix. Highs 31-38. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 10-17 rural and valley areas, 15-22 elsewhere, mildest coastal plain and urban centers. Wind NW 5-15 MPH shifts to W then drops to near calm.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 31-38. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear evening. Clouds return overnight with a snow shower chance favoring areas west of Boston pre-dawn. Lows 14-21. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sun / cloud mix. Chance of snow showers, favoring early morning and late afternoon. Highs 32-39. Wind SW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts, shifting to NW.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 12-19. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 31-38. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 21-28. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy with most sun midday. Highs 32-39. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 17-21)

This presents as a fairly quiet period with one interruption about February 18 as low pressure passes to our north with a minor precipitation event far more likely than something more significant. Lack of arctic air, abundance of Pacific air, which means temperatures for the 5-day period near to slightly above normal, the mild air modified (cooled) by existing snow cover. However, the snow cover, subjected to the relatively mild air and higher sun angle, will be accelerating its “shrinkage” as time goes on.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 22-26)

Following a trend back toward a colder pattern and potential wintry precipitation event or two before month’s end.

71 thoughts on “Thursday February 12 2026 Forecast (8:29AM)”

  3. Good morning and thank you TK.

    27 here after low of 25

    Ocean: 38

    Snow showers last evening left a nice little dusting which sublimated overnight as it was GONE this morning. 🙂

    Wordle: A big PHEW 6

    Reply

  5. Thanks TK !

    There was a trace of snow around this morning.

    Could feel the change in the airmass this morning from yesterday’s beautiful temps.

    Reply

  6. Good morning. I like a more reserved weather pattern. I have a 10k to run up in Hyannis on March 1st. I’m just hoping no surprise snow storm happens!

    Unrelated to weather – yesterday I was telling some friends at work who are of a similar age to me (or slightly older) how easy my colonoscopy went. They removed two polyps so there will be that slight anxiety waiting for any analysis on those but it was a pretty quick thing. These coworkers have all kind of hemmed and hawed at the idea of getting it done and have put it off. Then later that work day came the news that James Van Der Beek of Dawson’s Creek and Varsity Blues fame passed away from colon cancer. He had wished he had gotten checked way earlier so it would have been caught sooner. He was 48. What really gets me is that here is someone who at one point was mega famous but towards the end he was having to sell off a ton of memorabilia to pay for treatments and now that he’s gone his family had to start a gofundme – which has since raised 1.3m dollars. I wish we lived in a world where people weren’t so scared to get checked… and where people, even those well off, wouldn’t be put into financial ruin for treatment.

    Reply

    1. I have had it with colonoscopies and I have had a bunch of them! I will NEVER have one again.
      I’ve lived long enough, so I don’t give a rat’s ass. Whatever happens, happens. I think that procedure is a barbaric, disgusting, invasive procedure and the prep work is totally degrading, spending 2 days on the shitter! NO THANK YOU!!

      Now there’s a different take. To each his own.

      Reply

      1. That’s pretty extreme. 2 days? I have a colonoscopy every 2 years because of my disease. The prep-day is no fun, I’ll admit. But the biggest problem for me is craving real food when I am on a liquid diet for 36 hours. The procedure itself – I never remember. I have a doctor I trust and sedation is a wonderful thing. And the piece of mind I get knowing that if they ever did detect something, it would be well early enough to prevent it from becoming something that would potentially kill me. I’ll keep getting mine, thanks. 🙂

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        1. Maybe, Perhaps it’s my mood. I still don’t like it and I am not having another one. Oh well, life goes on. 🙂

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            1. Yes, it truly is. I just had enough after the last one I had. If I were much younger, I’d be forced to continue.
              But now? Nope. 🙂

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              1. That’s understandable. I think that they used to say it wasn’t recommended once you reach age 70. My doctor believes that it should also depend on your overall health.

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                1. I am 70 and overdue for a colonscopy. Thought the cutoff date was 70 but doc said it was 75. Kind of hope I have aged out but would also like to get clean bill of health.

    2. You make many excellent points.

      We had a friend who avoided doctors based on her religious beliefs. In her early 50s she got colon cancer and had a horrible end to her life. She left behind a husband and five children.

      On a brighter note, my last colonoscopy had an interesting ending. After waking but still loopy, I was getting dressed. I heard a loud siren and a voice saying “Code Red!” The nurse came flying in and said that we could wait a few minutes and if the alarm continued, she would help me down the stairs since we wouldn’t be able to use the elevator. It turned out to be a false alarm and all ended well.

      Reply

    3. I’m in a fight with my insurance company right now to get screened. I’m 3 years shy of 45 when routine screenings happen for people at normal risk. I have 2 family members with colon cancer, the most relevant is a 2nd cousin who was diagnosed at 40 and passed away 2 years later. The other was his mother (my great aunt) but she was much older. They only define high risk if it’s a parent or sibling. Will be paying out of pocket.

      Reply

      1. It’s really sad that insurance companies would make this hard to do at all. This is why I despise the system in this country. Europe has it right. We have it upside down.

        Reply

        1. The health care system in this country is insanely BAD!!
          can you say PROFIT PROFIT PROFIT $$$$$$$$$$$$
          That is what it is all about.

          Reply

    1. We’ll go into spring like this with a “non-wet” pattern. Some of the snow melt will help, but a this snow pack does not have a ton of moisture in it, so the help with be limited.

      Reply

  11. ENSO update from NOAA / CPC continues to indicate that odds of El Nino onset exceeds 50% by mid summer. The graphic is available via the insanely long link that follows…

    https://scontent-bos5-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t39.30808-6/633697011_1489580972533691_6300451558320483642_n.jpg?_nc_cat=106&ccb=1-7&_nc_sid=127cfc&_nc_ohc=OvHxjTerXB8Q7kNvwHO6pVx&_nc_oc=AdldrLddE4Mka_iiAw4_lvYgNomfs-FQ3AgC3V9oiwLduhE7oe0NZbXa2SBEQ7YMR_4&_nc_zt=23&_nc_ht=scontent-bos5-1.xx&_nc_gid=sAXxL10Y5kEyWY3djQT0Ag&oh=00_AfvSQtxcV4jtGcZ9GRcxz9Gg-mClskfoG6NJnwd-688FAg&oe=6993D9C6

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    2. Outstanding. I really missed the boat today or should I say train? but then I just barely DID catch the train. My accommodations aren’t so great!

      Reply

  14. My next colonoscopy is due in June. I had 11 polyps last time. There was a point that got a couple of years I had one every 3 months. I had the prep down to a science but last time they said no to that prep. Dr S, can you share the prep you used please?

    Ace, my SILs mom had colon cancer at a young age. She is a survivor but I seem to remember he had a battle with the insurance company to have his first.

    We have horrific insurance in this country. The battles we had re Mac’s treatment were just Oisin cruel. Once on Medicare with bcbs supplement, nothing was questioned.

    JPD, with all the colonoscopies I’ve had, I never had a two day experience. I’m wondering if it was your prep. I’m so sorry that happened

    Reply

    3. When I got one done about ten years ago the prep was prescribed to me and was a big bottle. This time it was all do it yourself. You had to but ducolax tablets and a 238 gram bottle of Miralax (that says it’s 14 once daily doses lol) and you were instructed to do as follows:

      – 3pm the day before: take four ducolax pills
      – 5pm the day before: mix the entire 238 gram bottle of miralax with 64 ounces of gatorade. Drink 8oz every 15 minutes until 32 ounces are consumed. Wake up early the next morning and drink the last 32 ounces in the same time increments.

      You were also expected to do a fast, obviously. So for me – I ate a big meal during the Patriots game on Sunday. Woke up monday and had some chicken broth, an energy drink and some water. For lunch I had some italian ice and a soda and water. For dinner I had more broth and more italian ice and that was it. Tuesday I woke up, drank the rest of the miralax gatorade and was definitely cleared out well ahead of my noon appt.

      I was so happy to get home around 2pm and have bacon, eggs, shoestring fries and the patriots gingerbread cookie I forgot to eat on Sunday.

      Reply

  15. Great job on all of those 3’s.

    It took me til 6.

    I had those first 2 letters in the right spot and my brain went in a different direction for the next 3 guesses.

    Reply

    2. Seems to happen to me more often now also. Great job to everyone for getting it. And in truth…for even trying. Good brain food

      Reply

  16. Thanks TK.

    Despite the likely miss Monday, 6z GFS was quite active in the long range. Had the overrunning event late next week which at this point could end up rain, ice, or snow or a combination thereof depending what model you look at. Then three snow events after next week in the long range.

    Reply

  18. Regarding colonoscopies, if anyone has any reservations, Cologuard is a nice alternative (you basically poop in a box and then mail it off to the lab). I did my first at 46 and second one recently (I’m 49 now) going on 50 in April. They recommend it every 3 years. The lab checks for cancer markers such as blood in the stool, DNA, etc. It is 98% effective. Only downside vs a colonoscopy is that with the colonoscopy, they can remove any polyps they find when they are in there. And if you get a positive cologuard result (which doesnt necessarily mean you have cancer), you would then need to go in anyway to get a colonoscopy, get it checked out, and have any polyps removed.

    I did have a colleague recently whose mother (who was in her late 50’s) went in for a routine colonoscopy and they punctured her colon. She ended up dying the following week. Odds of that are extremely rare and if you go to a place that does a lot of these, I’m sure there is nothing to worry about but it did freak me out.

    Agree with Dr S though, if you are 45 or older, get checked, regardless what method you use.

    Reply

    1. So sorry to hear that. With my wife’s last colonoscopy they
      perforated her colon. She got an infection and was sick for a week, but luckily that was it. Also her LAST one EVER!!!

      Reply

  19. 12″ of new snow in Bretton Woods, NH the last 24 hours which was a bit of a surprise, even up there. It just wants to snow in the mountains this year! One of the posters on American Wx posted these images earlier. All the snow on the picnic table is new. 30″ on the ground there now.

    https://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_2026_02/IMG_4763.jpeg.221918ff928ca97257cb6e3171853945.jpeg

    And a shot from Bretton Woods downhill ski area. This is is lift serviced terrain, untracked powder…

    https://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_2026_02/IMG_4775.jpeg.0e00f54d42887f617d9f51ea9360c92a.jpeg

    Reply

  20. 12z GFS for late week:

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat-imp&rh=2026021212&fh=156&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

    We are going to be near the boundary and really threading the needle. 50-100 miles swing could make a big difference in outcome: snow vs ice vs rain or a combination.

    This particular run has the rain/snow line on the MA/NH border.

    0z Euro EPS had the boundary south of us which would equate to more ice/snow.

    Still a long ways off…

    Reply

  21. Thanks TK.

    Some additional degradations for portions of the Northeast and mid-Atlantic in the weekly drought monitor released this morning, as precipitation continues to fail to keep up with climatology. That will likely continue to get worse over the next week at least.

    However, the longer term pattern doesn’t scream “dryness” to me for the Northeast going towards the spring. With the Southeast ridge definitely settling in but still plenty of cold air in Canada, I would expect a pretty active storm track heading towards March-April. Granted, those are climatologically wet months, so you do need solid precip events just to keep pace. But I think we’ll see it happen. Whether it trends more wet or white for SNE in March-early April is still very much TBD of course, but I would lean towards precip on the plus side of normal overall this spring. And given the Canadian cold, would probably at least have a slight lean towards above normal snow in March.

    Reply

    1. I can agree with the snowy March (at least the first half), but my concern is once again where it may end up on the colder side of normal, we lose a lot of that to sublimation over melting.

      And near normal or slightly above normal spring precipitation isn’t going to go that far toward wiping out the abnormally dry to moderate drought.

      Ideally we need a solid snowmelt, and above normal precipitation, hopefully accomplished without much flooding. I’m not sure we can pull off the former, nevermind the latter. 🙂

      Reply

      1. Yeah, it’ll definitely take more than a hair above normal to really help the drought, especially for NNE and the mid-Atlantic which are both in worse shape than SNE.

        Honestly, the mid-Atlantic/Northeast could really use a tropical/remnant event this summer, hopefully one much more wet than windy of course. I don’t recall a meaningful one since the remnants of Ida in 2021. Granted, that was a devastating storm, but it’s no accident that the longer term drought that’s developed in the time since is strongly correlated to the lack of TC events.

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          1. It’s cousin, the regular Euro has heard you and wants no part of what its cousin is selling. 🙂 🙂 🙂

            Reply

  23. 18 days of 2″ or more snowcover at Washington DC, the longest such stretch beating the 17 days set back in December 1989, which back then was helped by persistent cold, and early-season snow, and minimum sun angle.

    The current stretch was accomplished with a much higher sun angle!

    Reply

  27. CPC shows the milder regime for 6-10 … NOTE … This is not a warm “blowtorch” pattern. It’s a relaxed pattern – the one I have been talking about for quite some time for mid February.

    CPC’s 8-14 day is already starting to hint at the transition back to a a colder pattern, which I expect to take place mostly after February 22. Also of note, CPC tends to be quite conservative when it comes to forecasting anything on the colder side. We see this time and again when they basically forecast above normal for the entire country well in advance then adjust downward where needed (still don’t understand that strategy other than they are told they have to focus on the Pacific patterns and ignore a lot of important indices – mysterious).

    In short, nothing has changed in regard to my medium / long range outlook. Steady as she goes!

    Reply

  28. Bernie is still at it for the weekend storm.

    https://x.com/AccuRayno/status/2022047365935616421

    (1) My thoughts haven’t changed on weekend storm. I think the key is the northern piece coming into the Pac NW Friday night. That will determine the northern extend of the precip. EURO AI drops the northern piece into the southern branch at last second and then storm intensifies

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  29. More from Bernie:

    (2) Causing accumulating snow from PHL to NYC to the CAPE, south of BOS. Other guidance like EURO & GFS OPS does not have any precip in the cold air. The overall pattern difference between the two is very minor,BUT Minor differences aloft mean big differences at the surface.

    (3) So what do I think?I do not think precip can get to I-80 across PA.However, it is POSSIBLE (I put it at 30% right now)for a period of snow from coastal SNE to LI including NYC & into SEPA. Boundaries will be warm though so to accumulate it has to be moderate to heavy precip

    Reply

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