Friday February 13 2026 Forecast (9:22AM)

77 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 13-17)

High pressure provides fair and seasonably chilly weather today, though if outside you will notice it feeling “not so cold” with the lack of wind and the higher sun angle. A quick-moving disturbance passes by early Saturday around the base of an upper low moving across southeastern Canada and northern New England. Most of the snow shower activity with this system should dry up but a few may survive the trip across our area in the pre-dawn to mid morning. I can’t rule out one more wandering down from northern New England later in the day too as the upper low departs. Weak high pressure brings fair weather Sunday. Low pressure in the southern jet stream will be passing south of our region Sunday night and Monday. It’s cloud shield will be about all we see from that. During the same time frame, a northern jet stream disturbance will be coming our way, passing just to our north late Monday and early Tuesday with some clouds and perhaps a snow shower, with fair weather returning for the balance of Tuesday as it departs the region.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 31-38. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clear evening. Clouds return overnight with a snow shower chance favoring areas west of Boston pre-dawn. Lows 14-21. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sun / cloud mix. Chance of snow showers, favoring early morning and late afternoon. Highs 32-39. Wind SW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts, shifting to NW.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 12-19. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 31-38. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 21-28. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy with most sun midday. Highs 32-39. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A snow shower possible. Lows 20-27. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy with a snow shower possible early, then partly to mostly sunny. Highs 33-40. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 18-22)

Briefly milder middle of next week before Canadian high pressure cuts off further warming and chills the region back down. What I’m not sure of yet is how close the boundary between mild air south and cold air north will be. Medium range model trends have been to place this boundary further south the last 48 hours and I don’t believe that trend of model adjustment is done. So while these current model runs show some unsettled weather one or two times heading toward the end of next week, I am leaning toward a drier regime here. Will monitor.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 23-27)

Continuing to see a trend for a colder pattern and potential wintry precipitation event or two before February is over.

77 thoughts on “Friday February 13 2026 Forecast (9:22AM)”

  2. Thanks TK.

    Pretty frigid again this AM in some spots. Noticed Norwood got down to 1F.

    And what a look on the models this AM! 6z GFS, GFS AI, Euro and Euro AI all look cold with multiple snow threats starting later next week and beyond. Enjoy the temp moderation and quieter weather until then…

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  4. Thank you TK!

    Wordle: 5

    Happy for decent weather today as we host our Night to Shine prom for the special needs community. Such a great event.

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  7. See my 6-10 discussion about everything likely to trend further south for next week. These op runs will basically be trash for a couple days.

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      1. No. But it’s how you approach the outlook this far in advance. But following trends and knowing model bias gives you an advantage in knowing the “final result” over just going run to run.

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      1. We’ve seen a lot of that since the HT effect became more prominent. I’ve already adjusted for it, hence the OTS forecast sooner than guidance would have one feeling comfy with such a prediction.

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      1. Yup, I think a better than 50% chance, we’ll be adding 10-25 more inches of snow to what we’ve seen already for seasonal totals.

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  14. 34.5 degree sun angle today in Boston

    Mins out at 24.2 degrees, so the sun has climbed slightly more than 10 degrees since the solstice.

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  18. Thanks, TK!

    Up to 38 at hour. I erased it already, but think the morning low was 8.

    Barcelona and Catalonia were rocked by hurricane-force winds Wednesday night. Schools, businesses and the airport were all closed. There was significant damage across the region in the worst windstorm in more than 20 years.

    I am not sure if anyone posted the weekly drought map, but here’s the link:

    https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/CurrentMap/StateDroughtMonitor.aspx?Northeast

    Part of Franklin and Worcester Counties, MA are now in Severe Drought.

    Taunton has started 2026 nearly 1″ below normal for precipitation. (Source: NOWData for January, 2026)

    I guess the Space X Falcon 9 rocket launch was visible around here around 5:15 this morning. There are some neat photos of the rocket from Rhode Island posted on social media.

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  20. Wordle 4.

    Beautiful day sitting on a lake in Boxford! About 13 inches of ice although there is a slush pocket between 4 and 6 inches, interesting. One large pickerel so far, kinda quiet but enjoying the day.

    Tom

    Reply

    1. With all the years I spent fishing, I never ice fished. And I always hoped to.

      Pickerel are bony but I seem to remember that there is a way to cook them. Do you catch and release or will he be your dinner.

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    2. Nice 4. Haven’t ice fished in a million years it seems.

      How large was that pickerel? I never caught any big ones through the ice, mainly 12-14 inch ones.

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  22. Alright that’s basically 5 for 5 on regular operational models from 12z … 3 days out … none of them are what I would consider “concerningly close”. They are all misses, but all it does it confirms the thoughts I’ve had on this system for several days now. Thanks models!

    My attention next will be focused on the minor disturbance tomorrow. That does have the ability to produce a couple of more-than-light snow showers even though current short range guidance does not show such a thing.

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    2. The best part about this is it shows another great example of why we should not really worry about details this far out on operational runs.

      The placement of lows / highs and their intensity out this far is virtually meaningless.

      What’s going to tell you more about the pattern this time distance from the future is the trend of ensembles. You know this, but I’m saying it again here for the benefit of reminding anyone reading who may just be hearing this for the first time.

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  26. RRFS is getting a tune-up so they are only running the big hour updates out to 60 hours instead of 84.

    Getting closer to replacement time…

    Reply

      1. RRFS doesn’t need too much tuning up from what I’ve seen recently, but making sure those beyond 60 hour forecasts are better are a big part of the reason to have this model replace the five that are leaving us.

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          1. NAM (North American Model) – all versions
            HiresW (High Res Window)
            RAP (Rapid Refresh – hourly)
            HRRR (High Res Rapid Refresh)
            NARRE (North American Rapid Refresh Ensemble)

            The RRFS is designed to take care of everything all of those models did, and perform better.

            I am very happy with the change. We don’t need 5+ short range models. That was already a case of “more is too much” and now we’re going back to “less is more”. Thank goodness.

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  27. RRFS runs are starting to pick up a bit more on the snow shower chance for tomorrow. I suspect upcoming runs will depict a bit more as well.

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      2. From tomorrow’s stuff? Isolated to scattered dustings.

        I never said this was an accumulating snow event.

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  28. According to Ch. 7, messy mixes upcoming next week as we will be near the boundary just south of us.

    As mentioned in TK’s discussion above.

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    1. Well my discussion hinted at a southward trend, with the potential of precipitation associated with said boundary being further south and a drier regime here.

      I am not sold on an unsettled week at all.

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        1. Yes, I’m aware of those forecasts. But that’s his forecast.

          Mine is above and describes the uncertainty based on my anticipated further south trend on things.

          The TV guys HAVE to put something on their graphics, and they’ll tend to go more with what is shown today and update it going forward. They don’t have the space & time on those weathercasts to be as detailed as I can be in my discussion.

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    1. The first weekend … since? He had to have said that as well. He’d not have just phrased it “the first weekend without accumulating snow or extreme cold”.

      Reply

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