DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 14-18)
A small, quick-moving upper low crosses New England today and can result in a few snow showers, however most of the region will remain dry with just some varying amounts of cloud cover, most extensive this morning and more 50/50 with sun this afternoon. Continuing to monitor a storm set to pass south of our region from late Sunday through early Monday. We’ll get under its cloud shield while its precipitation shield will stay south of the region. This is a southern stream system and will be followed by a northern stream system that will pass north of our region Monday night and early Tuesday with some additional cloudiness and perhaps a snow flurry. As we head toward the middle of next week, cold high pressure builds in east central Canada while a warm front approaches our region, increasing the cloud cover by Wednesday. More about this part of the pattern evolution in the 6-10 day section. Detailed 5-day first!
TODAY: Mostly cloudy with perhaps a light snow shower in a few locations this morning, then a sun/cloud mix this afternoon with a late-day snow shower possible, favoring areas to the north of I-90. Highs 32-39. Wind SW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts, shifting to NW.
TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows 13-20. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Sunny start, then increasing clouds. Highs 31-38. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Lows 21-28. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.
MONDAY: Cloudy start, then increasing sun. Highs 32-39. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A snow shower possible. Lows 20-27. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy with a snow shower possible early, then partly to mostly sunny. Highs 33-40. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 13-20. Wind variable under 10 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 35-42. Wind N up to 10 MPH.
DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 19-23)
While a frontal boundary (cold to north, mild to south), sits nearby and waves around a bit, the overall trend should be to push southward with stronger than modeled high pressure in eastern Canada. Cannot rule out a couple episodes of precipitation early period, should end up mainly dry with a milder start and a colder finish to this period.
DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 24-28)
Leaning toward colder with one or two wintry precipitation threat potentials down the home stretch of February.
First?
Wordle 4
Nice !
Nice !!!!
Thanks TK
Thanks TK.
Good morning TK
32 here after low of 26
Ocean: 37
Wordle: 3
Superb JpDave !
Thank you.
Wow. Very nice, JPD!
Thanks TK !
Wordle: 4
Tomorrow will be 3 weeks that we’ve kept an impressive snow cover on the ground. Quite a marked change from the last few winters when it would snow 4” and be gone in 3 days.
We’ve actually had a winter season this year.
Was thinking the same this morning.
Indeed, we have had a Winter this year, for a change. 🙂
A friend recently said it’s an old fashioned winter. It may not be that long since we’ve had one but I understood his meaning.
4 tis good. 🙂
Great 4, Tom
Thank you, TK. 26 up from 19. Our lows are getting higher
Due to the replacement of arctic air by pacific air. 🙂
Yep. And my wallet is happy. Now if the snow on my deck would melt so I can sit outside
Wordle 5.
You got it!!!
Nice, Vicki !
Happy Valentines Day to our WHW family
Same to you, Vicki.
❤️
hmmmm
The models are creeping Northward, mile by mile with each run.
Consider the 12Z NAM
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=ref1km_ptype&rh=2026021412&fh=48&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=
Compare to last night’s 0Z
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2026021400&fh=60&dpdt=&mc=&r=conus&p=ref1km_ptype&m=nam
Others also have crept Northward. Waiting on RRFSA, ICON and RDPS
Here is the 12Z HRW FV3
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrwfv3&p=ref1km_ptype&rh=2026021412&fh=46&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
The “northward creep”, outside of the 12km NAM just being the 12km NAM (i.e., I don’t use it, for good reason), is a form of depicting a weakness of pressure in the atmosphere between the low passing to our south and the northern stream system that lags too far for a phase.
It often looks like the systems reach for each other. This is technically, a very early stage of what would be a phase if they were closer. It just doesn’t complete itself, at least until they are well beyond our longitude. The shorter range guidance will start to generate some precipitation along this weakness. Other guidance will do it by showing a more expansive northern edge of precipitation. It has been my experience to see this over-simulated more often than under-simulated in the set-up we have going into this one.
The models may show precipitation, but dry air present will give you a different result.
I was wondering that. thank you. I have also noticed a change in the 500 mb flow where it is a bit more amplified. I find it interesting.
Even Mike Wankum introduced “Snow Flurries” into the forecast because of this. 🙂
Break out the snow removal gear! 😉
ha ha ha
JPD – I’m joining you with a Wordle 3!
Excellent!!! Welcome. I whiffed on the 1st guess, so does that count as a 2? 🙂 🙂 🙂
Strange game. One day a word will come to mind and another day I’m out in left field, shit out of luck!
Excellent SClarke
Superb SClarke !
Well so much for that as the 12Z ICON has retreated a bit more South than the 6Z
12Z
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=icon&p=prateptype_cat_icon-imp&rh=2026021412&fh=48&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=
6Z
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2026021406&fh=54&dpdt=&mc=&r=conus&p=prateptype_cat_icon-imp&m=icon
Thanks, TK.
I can smell the Pacific ocean now. Well, not really. But there’s little or no umph to the cold. It’s 33F where I am and I just went outside and it did not feel like it was around the freezing mark.
I realize that we’ll get more (modified) cold air intrusions at some point this month. But winter’s taken a left hook to the jaw.
PV stretch may be ahead and it may be very similar to the first one we saw this winter.
The similarity: Pure arctic air delivery becomes possible again.
The difference: Higher sun angle February / March vs. December / January.
Does that mean we have another shot at sub zero? How common is this to happen in March? Is duration as lengthy given timing? Thanks.
Watch a really warm and sentimental movie that was even a love story of sorts called THE MAGIC OF BELLE ISLE on Netflix. Stars Morgan Freeman and Virginia Madsen. Excellent movie, imho.
Copied and added to my list. Thank you
🙂
So for anyone who skipped the discussion today…
Cliff notes:
1) The late weekend threat is a miss.
2) Dry air starts to obliterate the precipitation threat mid to late week.
3) We’ve been “milder” (i.e., seasonable) after modified Pacific air flushed out arctic air. But any “warm-up” is not long-term as the general trend will be for cold to win out.
That’s about it for now.
Wordle in 5
New game…how many tries can I make without getting any letters. My high on that secondary score was two today. That may be my personal best. Hmm. Also my personal best with real game is 2. A week or so ago I hit on T-H-E-I-R to get chide on my next guess. Sorry…tmi.
Wow. One is far more common than it once was but two is a tad discouraging,
Glad to have you aboard the 5 car
I’ve had 2 ZILCH guesses many times. I may have had 3 once, but not sure.
Happy Valentine’s Day all.
Thank you. Same to you
TK – With regard to the mid-week “threat”, how come the tv Mets will have to play “catch up” to realize that the upcoming week will likely be mostly dry? I assume they have the same access to the models, etc.
This morning they all have bouts of mixed precipitation becoming all snow from Wednesday through Friday, albeit no big storm.
Thanks for the heads up.
TK had snow showers dotting next weeks forecast
See the comment I made last night.
They are not playing “catch-up”.
I also didn’t say this coming week WILL be mostly dry, I said I expect a trend in the guidance toward drier over wetter (snowier, etc).
I have by no means made any final calls on anything that far in advance. I never do this far in advance, and neither do our fine set of TV meteorologists in this market. They know better.
As I said, they still have to put SOMETHING on the graphic. And if they, any or all, feel differently than I do about the trend, then they are inclined to put whatever they want there, which I respect. It’s not up to me what Petey B or anyone else puts on their 7-day or 10-day graphic. 🙂
Well, when I see a “trend toward drier”, my interpretation is a “mostly dry” scenario.
Maybe I should stick with just posting final precipitation stats and descriptions of sunrises/sunsets. No misinterpretations there. 🙂
On a non-weather note, Nate & I (“A Finesse”) have released our 3rd single today at 1:43 p.m.
This song was written by my son for his uncle he never met – my brother, who we lost in 1997.
The spoken word in the middle section is me at age 9 in 1977.
The music was composed by Nathan except the percussion, which was mine.
Nate’s girlfriend provides middle section backing vocal.
Nate provides second verse backing vocal.
I do the lead.
The song is called “Unending”.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=StVJ3GqNUsw
Oh my. This is an absolutely beautiful tribute to your brother. And words that encompass all loss. Shouldn’t surprise you to Know I cried through it. Well, to be fair, I started crying when I saw the album cover. Thank you so much for sharing this
Great job! Nice tribute to him!
Very nice !
Beautiful! Congratulations on this great accomplishment.
Thank you TK!
Wordle:5
Beautiful tribute to your brother TK! You and your son are very talented.
Welcome to the 5 car!!