DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 15-19)
Low pressure will pass well south of New England tonight. Its cloud shield will filter / dim the sun as today goes on followed by the reverse process on Monday as the low pressure area heads out to sea. There will be a trough between that offshore system and another disturbance well to its northwest. Some light snow will be generated by this boundary to the west of our region but is likely to dry up in battle with dry air before ever reaching the WHW forecast area other than maybe a few stray snowflakes into CT overnight. The aforementioned disturbance in the northern jet stream will pass through our region, parent low pressure passing to our north, Monday night and Tuesday morning with perhaps a few light snow showers. We start to see the results of a shift in the weather pattern when we get to the middle of this coming week. High pressure will be building from central to eastern Canada with plenty of cold air up there, while mild Pacific air still occupies a lot of the central and eastern US. The boundary between these will establish itself somewhere in the Northeast starting Wednesday and a wave of low pressure will be coming along it, bringing clouds back into our region during Wednesday, including the chance of some precipitation later Wednesday to early Thursday, based on current expecting timing. Precipitation type will be determined by the timing / atmospheric profile, but rain/mix/snow are all on the table as possible. However, I do think this system will be on the wane, in terms of ability to produce precipitation, as it moves eastward, so at this point I’m not expecting a significant event, and we should see some drying on Thursday behind it. With the boundary so close by, the temperature forecast those days is a little tricky, so keep in mind that the numbers that I put up in that detailed forecast that follows can change a little more than is typical as I update this forecast over the next few days…
TODAY: Sunny start, then increasing clouds. Highs 31-38. Wind N up to 10 MPH.
TONIGHT: Cloudy. An overnight snow flurry possible eastern CT. Lows 21-28. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.
MONDAY: Cloudy start, then increasing sun. Highs 32-39. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A snow shower possible. Lows 20-27. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy with a snow shower possible early, then partly to mostly sunny. Highs 33-40. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 13-20. Wind variable under 10 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Clouding over. Rain/mix/snow possible afternoon. Highs 35-42. Wind N up to 10 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Mix/snow probable evening, diminishing chances overnight. Lows 28-35. Wind N to NE up to 10 MPH.
THURSDAY: Clouds break for sun at times. Highs 35-42. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.
DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 20-24)
Watching for another unsettled weather threat with boundary nearby early in the period, then some snow showers mid period with upper low passing by, followed by fair and somewhat colder weather late period.
DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 25 – MARCH 1)
Pattern trends a little colder and potentially stormier during the final days of February to the start of March with Canadian cold becoming more dominant but boundary region still nearby to the south.
Thanks TK !
Excellent discussion, as always !
Wordle: 4
Nice 4 Tom!
Good morning and thank you TK
27 here after low of 22
Ocean: 37
Wordle: A big fat 5 after getting ZILCH with the 1st 3 guesses. Picked up 3 letters out of position on guess 4 and from there was able to get the word. Funny we were discussing the first few guess misses yeterday. I should have kept my mouth shut!! 🙂
Nice rescue then from your first 3 guesses.
That 1st guess is so critical in getting a decent score.
Admittedly, I have been screwing around with 1st guesses.
It has mostly been good, but not so today. 🙂
Exactly.
Wordle 4
Great Job.
Nice !
Thanks TK
With a little bit of luck I got Wordle in 3 today.
Excellent !
Now that is Awesome!!!
Great 3 SClarke, 4 Tom and TJammer and 5 JPD.
JPD three without any letters has to be a record. I am Seeing more and more first guesses have zero letters. Getting it in five with no letters till your fourth guess is excellent The way I play, my second guess is very close to as important as the first.
May I please come on board the 4 car.
Welcome aboard.
Thank you.
I was watching some of the weather casts from last night on video.
I don’t know what model 2 of the stations used, but I couldn’t find it. It simulated snow to the mass pike and heavy snow along the south coast.
Strange. Maybe they will have the last laugh and that stunning surprise will happen, but knowing what the other models were showing, I was kind of surprised they presented that one. (Whatever outlier is was)
If it was Ch 10, they have an “in-house” model that I believe they still use regularly.
I have noticed (if that’s what I’m looking at) that it tends to be aggressive with northern edge snow on systems passing to the south.
Odds are though, no matter the channel(s) you saw, it was NBM. As of 07z, the NBM brings measurable snowfall all the way to southern NH.
Ok, thank you TK !
Thanks TK
Thanks, TK.
While there have been regions globally that have experienced colder than average temps this winter, including ours, there’s also been extreme warmth in many regions worldwide. Greenland’s historically mild winter, for example, as well as Iceland, but also parts of the Lower 48. And what’s transpiring this week and next across a massive swath of land from North Africa to Central and Southeast Asia is quite something. Extreme temperature anomalies.
That’s what was mentioned two days ago. As a whole, the globe is seeing continued high temps.
We tend to see more extremes when you have PV disruption in one or both polar regions.
Thank you, TK. 23 now from a low of 15
What a tragedy that took place in Eastham.
My parents had a Cape house until I was 9 and I spent much of my young summers on First Encounter Beach. I’ve always gone back. We are going to Eastham later this week for 2 nights because my wife knows how much I love it there.
Anyhow, the street in brings you to First Encounter beach first, but if you take it all the way to the end, you get to where the beach becomes a river that eventually narrows and feeds a massive salt marsh.
I love my dog and I certainly understand a pet owners instinct to help your pet in distress. And that ice blocks look so thick, I mean, you stand next to one and they can be mid thigh height.
I just feel so bad for that couple, their family and all the first responders and now divers, for whom this has to be difficult.
And the call came in yesterday at a little after 9am. High tide yesterday morning was around 8:50am.
When it’s really cold like this and the ice has really formed, you almost don’t see water. It’s certainly not solid, actually, you more see the ice moving or rising and falling a bit.
But that part of the bay has a 10-12ft vertical height change across tides, so that river was 10-12ft deep of water when the tragedy occurred.
Oh my. I just found the report. Horrific tragedy.
Very tragic accident that took place but it sucks because the ice should not have been gone onto with the Warmer temps melting everything . Have a good day everyone, back to work full time as of today .
I’m guessing you going back to work full time today means, hopefully, your wife has seen some good recovery. Hope she is doing well !!
She has Tom . With me being home caring for her and excellent nursing and PT Coming to the house twice a week she has had a problem free recovery to date . She is still recovering & can’t lift or drive or anything crazy like that . The services will continue till the end of March .
The Cape Cod tragedy is very sad, indeed.
Like Tom, I spent part of my youth in summers there (First Encounter Beach) in the 1970s. We camped at the Wellfleet Audubon sanctuary and would go to Eastham to swim (bay side; ocean side for the waves but not for swimming).
No way. Quite possible our families were at first encounter on a same day.
we spent many a summer up the road at Crooks Brook Beach.
My Sister-In-Law has a place down the street from that beach.
The tide changes were unbelievable!!!
Nice !
Yes, endless walks at low tide, and waist to chest deep, warm water to swim in a few feet out from the beach at high tide.
Yup.
I particularly remember being there in 1975 the dat=y after seeing JAWS at the Wellfleet Drive In the night before. It was a wee bit creepy being out in that water neck deep or more.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2I91DJZKRxs
It looks like the snow pack will build significantly out West over the next 2 weeks or so. Absolutely NEEDED!!!!
Indeed !!
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=sfct-imp&rh=2026021512&fh=31&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=
Who did we anger ??
Haven’t we already paid our winter dues and then some? 🙂
Cleveland and Chicago, 57F, Minneapolis, 49F
South of those 3 locations, 60s and higher
Boston ….. 34F.
Lovely.
It’s still February. What do you want/expect. 🙂 🙂 🙂
Your absolutely correct 🙂
But since it’s so close by, just to sneak in a 50F for 1 day. But, not meant to be 🙂
🙂 🙂
I guess not. We’ll just have to take what we get. 🙂
Breaking Olympic News:
https://theonion.com/finnish-ski-jumping-team-caught-tampering-with-earths-gravitational-field/
BAHAHAHA! They are always good for a laugh. 🙂
Thanks, TK:
The Wayback Machine makes two stops today.
The first is 2015, 11 years ago today when the snow depth was 34″. Taunton’s record snow depth is 45″ on February 12, 1948. The interesting thing about this record is there wasn’t one significant snowstorm that winter. It was insanely cold with routine snows.
The second Wayback Machine stop is 86 years ago today, February 15, 1940, with the region cleaning up after the unexpected Valentine’s Day Blizzard with a 15″ total.
https://newenglandhistoricalsociety.com/valentines-day-storm-1940/
Excellent looks back! I don’t remember either of them ….. mainly because I was still years away from being born. 😉
Not to my surprise (maybe others too), the gradual trend for the mid & late week unsettled threats is south and a bit less juiced.
Still in monitor mode for a while on those…time-according.
I was looking ahead a bit …
Longer range MJO expectations are favorable phases but weak intensity. That soon-to-be high pressure in Canada pattern may be around for a while with the boundary not wandering all that far to the south (other than brief times it gets shoved by new cold air masses). If we keep up the Pac jet this could set up one of those long-duration winter weather events around the beginning of March. Something to monitor.
Something along the lines of a 3 day event featuring off and on light snow accumulating like 5 – 6 inches or so. 🙂
It feels like a heat wave this weekend.
This is what “near normal” feels like after a long stretch of much below normal.. 🙂
I was reading last week for BDL from December 1st to February 11th it is has been the coldest winter in 32 years.
It’s been the coldest winter in many years for a good part of the eastern and southern US.
Also the second cold winter in a row for much of the East.
Wanna place bets on 3 in a row yet? 😉
Weather Lore: ❄️
“If February gives much snow, a fine summer it doth foreshow”.
My 13 year old granddaughter made these chocolate dipped strawberries for her family yesterday. She has always been excellent in the kitchen. She also makes bread from scratch
https://ibb.co/QvKZzc38
Yummy!!!
❤️
Look great !
Thanks, TK.