Monday February 16 2026 Forecast (7:47AM)

103 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 16-20)

As previously prognosticated, low pressure passed far enough south to keep its precipitation shield mainly to the south overnight, and the process is finishing off this morning. Even though on radar you see the northern edge of the precipitation (snow) over Martha’s Vineyard and Nantucket, the air at the surface is too dry for anything to reach the ground there. Some mid level clouds sit across much of our region underneath a higher cloud shield to start the day, but as low pressure departs seaward, we’ll trend back to some sunshine as today goes on, only to see more clouds arrive from the west at day’s end, and overtake the sky tonight into early Tuesday morning. This is from a northern stream low pressure disturbance that will pass over and north of our region early Tuesday, producing some scattered snow showers, enough to create some dustings in some areas. Fair weather returns during the day Tuesday, but this doesn’t last long. As previously discussed, the pattern shifts into one that features cold high pressure building from central through eastern Canada while mild Pacific air still resides in much of the continental US. The battle line (aka frontal boundary) that marks the battle between these air masses will situate itself near and south of New England from mid to late week. We’ll eye two waves of low pressure set to come along that boundary. The first of these approaches Wednesday and passes by at night, producing a period of precipitation from Wednesday afternoon into night. With borderline temperatures, we will likely see a variation from rain to the south to a mix/snow to the north, likely ending as snow/mix at night. Currently, this looks like a relatively minor event, but we will have to watch for a rather narrow band of somewhat heavier precipitation that can exist with this system, at least for a brief time. Drier air Thursday means some sun tries to return, but the next low pressure waves clouds us back up by Friday when we eye another area of precipitation approaching with a rain/mix/snow chance that afternoon and night.

TODAY: Clouds give way to sun which later on give way to clouds – all with a west to east progression. Highs 32-39. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A snow shower possible. Lows 20-27. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy with a snow shower possible early, then partly to mostly sunny. Highs 33-40. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 13-20. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Clouding over. Rain/mix/snow arrives west to east afternoon. Highs 35-42. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Mix/snow probable evening, ending overnight. Lows 28-35. Wind N to NE up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Clouds break for sun at times. Highs 35-42. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clouds re-thicken overnight. Lows 28-35. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Cloudy. Snow/mix/rain arrives afternoon-night. Highs 35-42. Wind variable to E 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 21-25)

The late-week system lingers with some precipitation into the start of the weekend on February 21, with a couple lingering snow showers possible February 22 as a colder air mass arrives underneath an upper low while the surface features moves away to the east. Expecting dry weather February 23-24 with the next precipitation threat presenting itself at the end of the period with the next system moving in from the west.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 26 – MARCH 2)

Near to below normal temps. Unsettled start, fair weather mid period, unsettled again late period, based on the expectation of a continued active storm track.

103 thoughts on “Monday February 16 2026 Forecast (7:47AM)”

  5. Good morning and thank you TK.

    28 here after low of 25

    Ocean: 37

    WORDLE: 5 Phew!!

    6z nam and’RRFSA a little robust for snow Wed.
    Euro more describes what TK says. Waiting on 12z suite.

    Reply

      1. Thanks.

        You pulled out the “Holy Crap Batman!!” I hope you have something in store just in case someone scores a 2. 🙂

        Reply

  10. NY with a long way to go to catch up but did record 1.1 inches from this system.
    Snowfall Standings
    BOS 41.1
    NY 22.3
    Both cities about 7 inches away from normal snowfall for the season.

    Reply

  14. Thanks, TK.

    The Danish Meteorological Institute just posted that Greenland’s west coast entered the weather record books with the warmest January ever measured. In Nuuk, the average temperature reached 0.1°C — 7.8°C above the normal January average for the capital. That’s C, not F. The temperature in the capital got as high as an astounding 11.3°C (52F).

    Reply

  16. Thanks TK.

    6z GFS was fairly robust for snow Wednesday as well. Very narrow band…up to 6″ within it but then not much north and south of there.

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2026021606&fh=66&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_ne&p=prateptype_cat-imp&m=gfs

    Kuchera Snow:

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2026021606&fh=72&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    And what a monster again on the 6z GFS for Sunday/Monday…

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat-imp&rh=2026021606&fh=168&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    1-2 feet of snow for that one.

    Run Total Snow, lol…

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2026021606&fh=384&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    Reply

  19. I don’t see NY catching up to Boston. The question is will NY have above normal snowfall for the first time since 2020-2021 winter where 38.6 inches fell. There are about seven inches away from normal snowfall for the season.

    Reply

    1. If any of the current model/ensemble runs are close to correct, NYC has a good shot to exceed their average snow by the end of the next two weeks.

      Reply

  20. The one thing in favor of maximizing snow accumulation later Wednesday is that it looks like a potential pulse happens after sundown Wednesday up through midnight.

    Might not be a lot, but it would fall in darkness.

    Reply

          1. The Euro has been horrific this winter on these systems.

            I did look at the 0z EPS Ensemble mean and there was a huge spread but it did have several strong members closer to the coast.

            There is more support for the system on the Euro AI.

            Reply

  25. So far a lot of ensemble spread for Sunday/Monday. What transpires with the Friday/Saturday system is probably going to impact whatever happens (or doesnt happen) with a potential Monday storm. Regardless, looks like active times ahead.

    Reply

  28. Nice to see the operational models making the same errors they have made with all the systems that don’t end up nearly like they depict this far in advance. 😉

    And at this range, the “big one” we got was depicted as sliding out to sea well to the south as a miss by most guidance too. 😉

    On both occasions, following the TRENDS of the ensembles was the key – as usual.

    Our pattern does, however, become more favorable for an important storm after February 23…

    Reply

    1. We’ve seen this time and time again. I’ll never get excited a week out from a potential system. Watch this thing go poof as we approach the weekend. Experience tells me this happens more times than not. The maps are pretty to look at but the operational runs are wishcasting even if there is some ensemble support a week away from a potential. We’ll see how it shakes out but I’ve ready this story a few times 🙂

      Reply

    2. Thank you, Mark, and all, for sharing models. They are great for teaching how each works (and sometimes doesn’t) and fun to follow.

      Reply

  32. Of course, at 6 days out, it is still out of range to have any confidence what is going to happen and we have two other systems to get through first, which, depending on how they play out, may affect what happens with this third potential storm (if it develops). But I’ve seen enough now across the models and within the ensembles to say there is a “chance” and it needs to be watched. As TK said, we will watch ensemble trends. Ironically, the Euro EPS has more of a signal than the GEFS does while the operational runs are showing the opposite.

    Reply

  33. I’m just thinking that the cold air up in Eastern Canada will ruin several potential warm ups through mid May. Ocean temperature running a couple of degrees below normal. Any thoughts on my guess about the spring being below normal? Will the trend be our friend? Hopefully no!
    I have tentative plans to be down in Sarasota mid April to early June to avoid cold damp sea breeze season.

    Reply

    1. Boston Buoy Temperature = 37F

      That probably is a bit below normal. The lowest that I can recall one winter was 36F years ago.

      The temperature above is likely the lowest it will get this season.

      Reply

  36. PAWTUCKET, R.I. (WHDH) – SKY 7 HD was over the scene of a shooting at Dennis M. Lynch ice rink in Pawtucket, Rhode Island Monday afternoon.

    Tv reporting one deceased and multiple injured

    Reply

    1. The world really is a scary, horrible place sometimes and we really do play a lottery of where we decide to be at any given moment. It’s sad and pathetic.

      Reply

      1. So true. So far two schools have said none of their students has been injured. Other schools may have had groups there also. Waiting to hear

        Reply

  37. 37F today, similar to many past days, but with a NE wind off the ocean, the DP has been running 26/27F so some additional melting today, many of the precious days have had a DP of 10F, so, hard to melt snow when the wet bulb temp just above the snow if it briefly moistens falls to or under 32F. Not doing that today.

    Of course, this is why we’ll land in that 2-4” band Wednesday late. Have to build that snowpack back up.

    Good lord, that next Sunday Monday thing has to move north or south, already to June 22nd.

    A June school day is not equitable to a school day in any other month. They are brutal. The students are understandably checked out. That starts after Memorial Day weekend.

    Reply

  38. If we do get that next Sunday system and it cans 2 more days of school, I’m going to pencil in JpDave for Monday, June 22nd, Mark for Tuesday, June 23rd, let’s see, who else loves snow ….. hmmm Hadi for Thursday, June 18th …… 🙂 🙂 🙂 who else?

    I will come in the last day of school, whatever day that ends up being and see them off. I’ll even leave some lesson plans, good luck in June with those, lol !!!!!

    Reply

    2. Small price to pay! I will start dusting off my old math text books. And I wont take any crap from those kids either 🙂

      Reply

    3. I’ll give the lesson on Differential Equations. 🙂 🙂 🙂

      Oh wait, that might be a tad advanced.

      How about factoring? Still too advanced?

      Fractions?

      Percentages?

      Wait a minute, I’d be so rusty on most of the above, You know what, get SCLarke. He is NO where near as old as I am. 🙂

      Reply

  40. Similar to what Ryan was saying a few weeks ago when there was potential for back to back sizeable snowstorms. That storm missed.

    Reply

  41. A question for Ryan on the post he made on X
    Gut feeling Ryan? And I won’t get upset no matter what happens as it seems many want you to play all seeing Wizard Of OZ, lol.

    His answer
    Pretty good setup. Could see this becoming a decent snowstorm

    Reply

  43. Tom, please don’t look….

    And from Jacob Wycoff

    I think winter is *FAR* from over.

    In fact, the next week could be some of the busiest all winter.

    Here we go again…

    Reply

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