DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 4-8)
Any untreated surfaces are likely very icy to start the day today so use caution of heading out prior to late morning, when we should finally see an adequate enough temperature rise to allow more significant melting. After yesterday’s / last night’s messy bout of precipitation, the sky cleared overnight and if it wasn’t already below freezing, it went below in most areas. We’ll have plenty of sun and a “milder” day today, even though a frontal boundary has been pushed to the south of our region – March sunshine is stronger and the source of this air is not that cold. However, the same frontal boundary is not done playing games with us, and its attempted return northward will bring a heavier overcast back into the region during Thursday, and eventually another ribbon of precipitation as a wave of low pressure comes along it Thursday night into Friday. High pressure in eastern Canada will keep the boundary from moving too far north, and low pressure moving along it will pass just to our south, setting up a chilly mixed precipitation event – probably starting as rain and transitioning to a mix of sleet and freezing rain especially north of the Mass Pike with a better chance that plain rain continues to the south. But this will have to be monitored with temperatures in that “borderline” region once again. I don’t think we’ll see any significant snow bursts in the next system, but I can’t rule out some wet snow mixing in over northern MA and southern NH in the early hours of Friday. Precipitation moves out as the wave of low pressure departs to the east during the day on Friday. As we get to the weekend a bit of a transition takes place. We’re first left with chilly air behind the departing low, but another low pressure area will be traveling toward southeastern Canada via the Great Lakes. Eventually, a stronger southwesterly air flow ahead of its trailing cold front will scour out the low level cold we have in place, but this may take until midday Saturday to occur. I do expect that day will feature a lot of clouds, but also a warm-up that you may need patience to enjoy. It should also be a rain-free day, with any rain shower threat associated with the aforementioned frontal boundary waiting until sometime at night. The front will pass through and I expect mainly fair weather on Sunday, but this time we won’t see a strong push of chilly air behind that frontal boundary, so Sunday may turn out to be a decent day despite some cloudiness, but I am optimistic, as far as late winter allows me to be at this point. Also to note: The switch from Standard Time to Daylight Saving Time takes place on Sunday (2:00 a.m. EST becomes 3:00 a.m. EDT).
TODAY: Widespread black ice this morning – use caution walking and/or driving! Plenty of sun / few clouds. Highs 42-49 (may not realized until mid to late afternoon). Wind near calm to start, then W up to 10 MPH.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Areas of fog. Patchy black-ice reforms. Lows 31-39. Wind near calm.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 40-47. Wind E up to 10 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Rain arrives southwest to northeast, but may occur as freezing rain and / or sleet some inland areas especially north of I-90. Lows 31-38. Wind E up to 10 MPH.
FRIDAY: Overcast. Areas of fog. Rain / ice / sleet – the former most likely south, the latter more likely north, and potentially wet snow mixing in also northern MA and southern NH, with all precipitation tapering off west to east by midday. Highs 33-40. Wind E to NE up to 10 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Foggy areas. Areas of black ice. Lows 30-37. Wind calm.
SATURDAY: Cloudy start with areas of fog, then breaking clouds with partial sun at times midday on. Highs 43-50, coolest South Coast. Wind calm early, eventually SW 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. A rain shower possible. Lows 35-42. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 47-54, coolest Cape Cod. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 9-13)
A milder / warmer spell early to middle of next week before a front brings a ribbon of rain and a turn to chilly weather at the end of the week – timing / details TBD. One thing that may interrupt it is a frontal boundary that slips down from the north and northeast in response to high pressure in eastern Canada. If that takes place, the temperature pattern would be more variable and some additional unsettled weather could occur during the transition to or from the “interruption”.
DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 14-18)
Up-and-down temperature pattern with a trend to below normal in the waning days of spring. Temperatures transitions marked by precipitation chances, the details of which are definitely too soon to know. Summary: Volatile mid March pattern expected.
The amount of trashing of meteorologists on social media this morning…
This confirms my suspicion that society has a mass mental health problem, and that is “snowfall amounts”. It’s so bad that they feel the need to take to social media to trash us “all” if they got 3 inches instead of 2, 4 inches instead of 1 to 3, etc. … No mention of the fact we ALL warned of the icy conditions after whatever so fell. You know, because we’re supposed to be right, supposed to be “perfect” (whatever that is). Clueless people. And can we FINALLY do away with the joke “I wish I was as wrong as much as you and still get paid”. It’s not original. Ok? It’s been around for decades, and it’s just as dumb now as it was when it was said the first time.
I’m not upset about my forecast, personally. Yes, there was a bit more snow than expected, by getting a couple tenths more melted precipitation – oooo what an error! But here’s the thing, everybody here knows what was expected: Snow, then sleet / freezing rain. We cautioned that it was possible the ice was more expansive than it may have been. This blog is not the issue. But that’s what happens when people listen and learn. 🙂 That’s quite lacking out there in general these days, and not just with weather……………..
I didn’t see an issue with anyone’s forecast. I guess people are just nuts.
Sorry all in the profession are on the receiving end of that.
You have our support.
This blog is the only “social media” platform that I use.
Arghhhhh. I have yet to see anything but get politely vocal when I do. We got what we were told we’d get. Anyone who gets an inch more or less than forecast and thinks it’s is a missed forecast is frankly crazy.
Are they trashing our Mets or were they using weather apps. I posted here my grandsons app said we’d have 4-5 here. I can’t get him to stop using it and it’s not worth a disagreement so
I stopped.
That stupid “I wish I could be wrong …” thing drives me crazy!!
The highest MLB career batting average is .372. “I wish I could get paid to fail 63% of the time.”
Imagine an air traffic controller boasting that 90% of his incoming planes landing safely. “Let’s see a meteorologist top that record!”
Thanks TK !
Another whew !!! 6 I had the first 3 letters for a while and didn’t see it until the 6th guess, but any day I make the train is a good day !! 🙂
Not too often we see freezing rain in Marshfield, right to the ocean, but check the box for that last night.
You got it. I HAD 3 letters in position after guess 3. I just wasn’t seeing it. I Struggled and then out of the blue it came to me for guess 4
Awesome !!!!
🙂
Good morning and thank you TK.
33 here after low of 31
Ocean: 36
WORDLE: 4
I am ready for the snow to melt. I need it gone to facilitate the fish and game trout stocking program. Looking forward to getting out there again. They used to stock mostly littel ones like 8 or 9 inches’ but now they stock mostly 12-14 inch fish which are way more fun to catch. They also stock some 18 inch fish none of which I have ever caught
Thanks TK
Icy the word for this morning. Widespread school delay openings in CT along with multiple accidents on the highways.
The NWS Climatological Data pages have not been updated since yesterday afternoon.
Thank you, TK. Our high/low was 33/31. We sit at 32 now.
It is a spectacularly beautiful morning. Looking ESE into the sun with a light fog and ice on the trees is magical.
Great getting Wordle, Tom. And Also
JPD.
I seem to be stuck in the 4s. Permission to come aboard your car, JPD
Of course. We may have company today. We shall see.
Thank you and the 4 car seems to have been crowded lately
I need to squeeze on the the 4-car as well.
Absolutely!!! Happy to have you aboard.
Yay. Well done and welcome
Done MA school delays. We are not delayed and many other towns around are not either. Our road is all ice. Starting to melt but buses are already out.
Our high school principal sent out a message this morning stating the roads were “very slippery” and that our young drivers should give themselves extra time. No delay but no students would be marked tardy if they arrived late.
That makes more sense than nothing.
Wordle 5. Long time staring at it until it popped in
You got it. Excellent.
For a common word, it was pretty difficult today.
Excellent TJammer
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=ref1km_ptype&rh=2026030412&fh=48&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
TK describes this well in his forecast.
Not caught up on exact precip type as depicted here.
The next system is chilly to cold again.
And the precip shield is sliding WNW to ESE which is one hint of the force of the cold dome to our north exerting itself as the event unfolds.
Some areas that start as rain are likely to switch over to something frozen.
Yup, agree. We shall see.
Attempted to walk along the shore walkway today. TREACHEROUS!
Thank you TK!
Wordle: 5 and not happy about it!
But, you got it!!
A 5 is great. So far unless I missed something, the 4 car is driving the train.
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rrfs_a&p=ref1km_ptype&rh=2026030412&fh=36&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rrfs_a&p=ref1km_ptype&rh=2026030412&fh=45&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
Same on RRFS A
And I like the less snow look, but same idea, areas starting as rain changing to frozen.
12Z RRFS-A
Agrees with colder but SLEET rather than SNOW.
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rrfs_a&p=ref1km_ptype&rh=2026030412&fh=41&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rrfs_a&p=ref1km_ptype&rh=2026030412&fh=52&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
Goes to about NOONish
Snow
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rrfs_a&p=snowfall_acc-imp&rh=2026030412&fh=54&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
If that is counting the sleet, that is a crapload of sleet!!!
We shall see.
Wordle: 5
We go over this a lot, obviously this being a weather blog but: people for some reason expect exact numbers and exact science not realizing just how tenuous a forecast can be and how many factors there are when making said forecast. I was just recently thinking that if climatology / meteorology was a required course for at least one section of high school that it would give more people a deeper appreciation of just how difficult these things are. The lay person doesn’t realize that a met has to factor in, for example, ocean temps, jet streams, ground temps, sun angle, cloud cover, frontal boundaries, upper atmosphere temps and and…. WE DIDN’T START THE FIRE, IT WAS ALWAYS BURNING SINCE THE WORLD WAS TURNING. Sorry, anytime I start listing a bunch of things I just think of that Billy Joel song lol
Nice 5
Excellent 5
re: Friday
GFS is interesting. Sleet to SNOW.
total snow
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2026030412&fh=54&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
Should see the “big warm up” next week start to get pinched off by medium range guidance that’s now in a better performance range.
This does not mean “no warm up”. It means shorter duration & more interruption.
I was just going to add a similar thought.
Proof is in the pudding with yesterday’s system and now, tomorrow’s.
3-5 days ago, these events looked milder than yesterday’s was and tomorrow’s will end up being.
Usually the way in the Late Winter and Spring.
Thanks, TK!
(Probably not) 53 on the Oregon Scientific sensor on the deck. It’s reading too high in the direct sunlight, but I can’t do anything about the thermometer until we have substantial snowmelt.
The snow depth in the backyard stands at 13″.
Hoping and praying for Mrs. SSK’s recovery.
I sure understand. I’m hoping for significant melt to get to the deck and bird feeders in front yard.
I got a weather alert on my phone for this:
https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=BOX&wwa=winter%20weather%20advisory
I did also
Just watched Argo. First time watched because I know it’s highly fictionalized but it’s a really good movie.
I probably shared this before. It’s Mac’s sisters account of being in Tehran as a pan am flight attendant just as the crisis began. And her part through pan am of rescuing people left after the hostage rescue.
https://i.imgur.com/vMFiPMI.jpg
I do recall you sharing that. We watched Argo shortly after it was released. I enjoyed it very much.
UPDATE: Boston yesterday received 1.0” of snowfall bringing the seasonal total at 62.5”. ❄️
Snowfall standings
BOS 62.5
NY 43.4
ORH 78.7
Thanks, TK.
I have a few comments below that are completely unrelated, sort of a stream of consciousness thing).
– Trashing of meteorologists is uncalled for. Period. It’s a difficult job pretty much 365 days a year in these parts.
– The Logan measurements of snow this season have been different from mine, and I am not far from the airport (perhaps 2 miles on a straight line). Two examples: I got more than 2 inches yesterday. Logan reported 1. I got 14.2 inches from the blizzard. Logan reported 17.1.
– From Accuweather, this tidbit: “March 4th – the only date that doubles as a full sentence.”
– Spring has REALLY sprung in large parts of Northwestern Europe. They’re 5 to 7 weeks ahead of us in terms of flowers, vegetation, and other spring things. We’ll make up a little bit of ground from Sunday through Tuesday, but not much if the colder temps after that resume.
Re: The snow measurements. Amounts can vary greatly over very short distances, dependent on many factors.
Just this winter alone, I have witnessed a 2 to 4 inch difference from one side of Acton to the other on at least 3 occasions.
In Woburn, we had a 1 to 2 inch difference between the west side and east side on at least 3 occasions.
Snowfall is rarely uniform over a region, including sometimes just across a couple miles distance.
Hmmm… I considered it and “August first” could be a full although elliptical sentence, I’d contend. Since being august is to be respectable.
Actually, every day this month is a complete sentence:
https://blogs.illinois.edu/view/25/404823560
Today’s GFS temp projection for 18z Wednesday March 11 from the 12z conventional and AI model runs…
Conventional: 35
AI version: 75
Well, that’s only a 40 degree difference.
Yesterday, the same 2 models were forecasting 34 & 86, only a 52 degree difference, for the exact same time & location (18z Wed Mar 11).
Wanna guess which one I’m leaning toward?
A note on the snowmelt. NOT that helpful for the drought. The ground is frozen. It can’t sink in. We’re capped until the ground thaws.
On this date in 1976 an extremely warm day occurred with temps near or above 80 from the Ohio Valley and Texas and nearly all points eastward.
The upcoming warmth next week will fall shy of that.
We had Feb vacation 1990 and March 23ish 2012 with very warm temps. Not 80 I don’t believe
2012 March had 2 very warm spells including 80+ away from ocean’s influence.
Another February that had a very mild “vacation week” was 1983.
Granddaughter was born March 23 2012. Her older sister and my oldest grandson played outside in the water table all day
Thank goodness for today’s sunny and 50F ish.
One helpful thing towards my mental well being.
Nice day today! We’re going back into the tank tomorrow, Friday, and part of Saturday.
The middle and end of the weekend and Monday (maybe Tuesday) look quite nice.
But I think we’re going to get sharply back-doored as early as Tuesday PM and that’s going to make the middle and end of next week look and feel a lot different than mainstream media is telling you right now…………..
Absolutely (middle of next week) 🙂
I actually don’t think the middle of next week looks that great, weather-wise.
A little love for Providence RI today, courtesy T.J. Del Santo of WPRI TV
This winter has broken well into the top 10 snowiest on record for the city of Providence. Here is the list as of today (inlcuding yesterday’s 0.3 inch).
10) 1966-1967 .. 58.1 inches
9) 1960-1961 .. 62.7 inches
8) 1993-1994 .. 63.5 inches
7) 2025-2026 .. 69.1 inches*
6) 1977-1978 .. 70.2 inches
5) 1906-1907 .. 71.4 inches
4) 2004-2005 .. 72.2 inches
3) 1947-1948 .. 72.9 inches
2) 2014-2015 .. 76.2 inches
1) 1995-1996 .. 105.0 inches
*This winter still carries opportunities to add to that total and move up one, two, or even up to several ranking spots. Another major storm could vault them all the way to the second spot.
Just came back from the grocery store. It is WARM out there!!!
My car thermometer was reading 55. At home here in JP, ny equipment is reading 52 (Well into the shade) and that is as high as it has gotten. I’ll take it. Good deal of melting going on!!!!
47 at your favorite pit of an airport. 😉
18Z HRRR has become more interesting for tomorrow night
Kuchera snow that includes a good deal of up from SLEET
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2026030418&fh=48&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
Don’t turn your back on the cold. We saw it yesterday into last night. We’ll see it Friday, and we may very well see it again on days that extended forecasts were talking about 70s.
Oh, I get that completely!!!!
18Z RRFS-A is similar with just a tad less snow
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rrfs_a&p=snowfall_acc-imp&rh=2026030418&fh=48&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
18Z 3KM NAM is similar but not nearly as robust. Takes longer for the cold to take hold
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam4km&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2026030418&fh=45&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
The almost September sun angle feels great! But I’m sure we get whacked again before the winters last gasp in early to mid April.
with the ocean temp being what it is, would NOT surprise me
if this year we see “some” MAY SNOW. We shall see. One never knows around here.
18Z GFS is pretty juiced for SNOW
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2026030418&fh=54&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
Our high today was a lovely 58. Nws, kestrel and car verified.
Ssk. Thinking of you and Sending prayers for Mrs SSK.