DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 3-7)
A frontal boundary will be the conveyor belt for low pressure areas passing by our region in the next 5 days. The details of each day will be determined by the position of the front and movement of each low. Today, we start bright and very cold but clouds are already advancing into southwestern portions of the WHW forecast area and will overtake the sky across the remainder of the region through the morning. This afternoon and evening, a wave of low pressure passing by to our south will bring a swath of precipitation which starts as snow and transitions to rain from south to north, but with an interim period of sleet for some areas and where it remains cold enough over the interior, some freezing rain is likely. Minor snowfall accumulation and icing (where it occurs) will be enough for some hazardous travel, especially away from the coast, from late afternoon into late evening. After that low pressure wave goes by, it will drag the front, which tried to come through as a warm front, back to the south as a cold front, enough to allow a bubble of high pressure to be close enough for fair weather, but limited sun, during Wednesday. The front will begin to push back our way as a warm front again during Thursday with more cloudiness, though rain should remain mostly south of the region until the end of day or Thursday night. The next low pressure area will take a track similar to tonight’s as the frontal boundary is forced back to the south by eastern Canadian high pressure, bringing rain but some wintry mix potential for interior and northern areas into Friday before precipitation tapers off. The next low pressure area is set to track well to our north by later Saturday and should do its part to pull the boundary northward once again. That day should still feature a fair amount of clouds, but will turn out milder, but not without a rain shower chance.
TODAY: Clouding over. Snow/sleet southwest to northeast afternoon then transitions to sleet/rain southern areas late-day. Highs 32-39. Wind calm becoming E up to 10 MPH.
TONIGHT: Cloudy. Snow/sleet to rain/freezing rain (inland) evening, ending overnight. Total snow accumulation before changeover, less than 1 inch South Coast, 1 to 3 inches elsewhere, with isolated 3+ amounts favoring higher elevations of north central MA as well as southern NH. Patchy fog forms. Temperatures steady 32-39 early then rise slightly. Wind variable up to 10 MPH early, becoming W late.
WEDNESDAY: Clouds break for sun. Fog patches early morning. Highs 42-49. Wind W up to 10 MPH becoming variable then SE by late-day.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 32-39. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain arrives by late-day especially south of I-90. Highs 42-49, coolest coast. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain likely but pockets of sleet and freezing rain possible southern NH and northern MA overnight. Lows 32-39. Wind shifting to NE up to 10 MPH from north to south.
FRIDAY: Cloudy. Rain/ice/sleet morning-midday (freezing/frozen precipitation most likely inland and north). Areas of fog. Highs 35-42. Wind NE to N up to 10 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Foggy areas. Temperatures steady 35-42. Wind calm.
SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of a rain shower. Highs 42-47 South Coast, 48-53 elsewhere, occurring later in the day. Wind calm, becoming SW 5-15 MPH.
DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 8-12)
The switch from Standard Time to Daylight Saving Time takes place on March 8 (2:00 a.m. EST becomes 3:00 a.m. EDT). Low pressure passes north of our region allow it to remain mild to start the period but two cold fronts come through with a downward temperature trend and maybe a couple passing rain showers into early next week, and after a brief cooler interlude the next storm system tracks well to the north with signs of a stronger southwesterly air flow and more pronounced warm-up for a couple days middle of next week. Frontal boundary from west end of period may bring a rain chance but not sure of timing on that this far in advance.
DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 13-17)
Colder trend with additional unsettled weather chances that can include wintry precipitation at mid month. Too soon for any details.
Good morning and thank you TK
WORDLE: 5
missed by last letter on 3 and 4′ so I am sure there will be a bunch of 3s again today, perhaps’a couple of 2s.
Nice !
Thanks TK.
Thanks TK !
I missed the eclipse, slept to my alarm, which is ok too !
Wordle: 6, on a whew streak 🙂
You got it, though. 🙂
Yes, I’ll take a 6 every day 🙂
Very nice Windler’s excellent Tom and JPD
Yes, I do much better a windle than I do at wordle. 🙂 🙂 🙂
I got Wordle in 3 today.
Of course you did. I predicted that. NIce job!!!
There will be more in the 3 car and perhaps one or two in the #2 car.
Awesome 3.
Wordle 4 here.
Nice 4
Thanks TK
Most schools for inland CT took no chances and have no school.
Thank you, TK. Up to 23 from 6
Missed eclipse. I was awake but moon was on the S/SW side of the house where there are no windows. Watching the moon travel E to S before bed, I figured it would not be where I could see it.
Up to 31 here already,
Just checked. We are one degree behind you
Thank you TK!
Wordle: Boarding car 5 today and happy to have JPD’s company!
Welcome aboard the 5 car. Refreshments are at the ready!
Wordle 5
Welcome aboard the 5 car! Nice to have some company. That makes 3 of us. 🙂
Wow great work everyone. Looks as if 5 is the hopping car today.
Th 12Z HRRR is overly AGGRESSIVE with the ice accretion, imho.
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=zr_acc-imp&rh=2026030312&fh=26&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
12Z RRFSA is fairly aggressive as well, except it smartly moved it
away from the coast.
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rrfs_a&p=zr_acc-imp&rh=2026030312&fh=27&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
HRRR coming in on the colder side
NWS ice accretion
https://www.weather.gov/images/box/winter/StormTotalIce.jpg
I got up in plenty of time to view the eclipse but I couldn’t find the moon even though my apartment faces the west. There is another complex across the way that “maybe” was blocking my view. I looked around, up, down. Oh well.
12Z RDPS is aggressive with snow and ice
Snow
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rdps&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2026030312&fh=42&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
ice
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rdps&p=zr_acc-imp&rh=2026030312&fh=42&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
Paints a pretty nasty Wintry picture? Live or Memorex?
Thanks TK.
An old prediction I had that I think so far is aging pretty well and will probably continue to do so: above normal precip across SNE this late winter and spring as an active inland storm track sets up. That includes several more weeks of potential for frozen precip to be involved as well, though the current pattern is a little more Southeast ridge-heavy which makes that tougher.
Not likely a “drought buster” pattern as the heaviest precip signal remains west and southwest of SNE. But some inroads are possible, and it at least should be an “it won’t get any worse” pattern, in the hopes of a true drought buster over the summer if a tropical system can get involved.
Tim Kelly on Twitter.
liquid equiv next 24 hours ~ pretty juicy
or icy ~ or snowy
may have another overachiever incoming
https://x.com/SurfSkiWeather/status/2028808690980061561
Thanks, TK!
I see a few flakes. Temp 31
Snowing at a pretty good clip here. Of course being the daylight hours in March not much sticking to the pavement.
Still just very very light snow dancing in the air
I have flakes!
Thanks, TK.
Really nice morning run. Yesterday’s run was absolutely superb. Probably the last nice refreshing runs (in which I can breathe so well) until October. Oh well. It’s been a nice winter. We’ve been blessed with that.
See below for a link to my latest batch of Forbes pieces. I think you get 3 free articles a month. Scroll down and click on the articles you’d like to read. https://www.forbes.com/sites/joshuacohen/
Thanks. Read article on prostate cancer, having been a patient. A problem in the PSA blood test world is for those who have already been afflicted by and “cured” from the disease. What I often see is my own blood test results being benchmarked against pre-cancer norms. I feel that I have to continually explain to oncologists, especially younger ones, that results need to be compared to post-cancer norms. At that exact moment, I get the deer-in-headlights look.
Snowflakes starting here. Could be the last of the season?
I highly doubt that.
I feel like I am seeing stronger bands in RI.
Likely Sleet
Thanks for the feedback, Longshot.
Snowing at a reasonable, albeit still a light rate.
Thanks, TK.
Interesting temperature development where I am in Boston. My outside thermometer got up to 34.4F but is now 32.2F. Cold is hanging tough.
Snowing moderately in Providence where there’s also been a slight drop in temperature.
I have a feeling the next few days will feature some oscillating temps with frozen precipitation mixing with cold rain at times before the region gets overwhelmed this weekend by a warm southwesterly. I do think we’ll see some overshooting temps once that is established and the snow cover is obliterated.
Is winter over then? No. But it’ll be banged up quite a bit.
Temp usually goes down initially when precip starts and there is a dew point depression.
Not seeing any wind to speak of.
Shouldn’t really be any wind with this event. There’s very little pressure gradient.
Light but steady snow at the moment. 31F.
The heavier echoes in RI are not “heavier” precip – it’s sleet. I can confirm it’s raining south of that area now, and snowing to the north of it.
In other words, right on time, right on track with everything today.
Snowing pretty good here now. Everything is covered. 33 here.
Freezing rain now after a burst of snow earlier.
I am depressed to report heavy snow in Marshfield.
Seeing what the freezing rain is doing on I-691 in Meriden, CT
https://x.com/ryanhanrahan/status/2028926124558852401
I can confirm Tk’s comment. Just came down 95 from Canton to North Attleboro. Varying intensity of snow, turned heavier around the 495/95 interchange and then mostly sleet when I got off the exit in North Attleboro.
Grandsons weather app says we will have 4-5”. ????
I just measured 1.5″ on the driveway. I’m sure there’s more on the areas that already had snow cover.
4 inches and counting in Fitchburg.
1/2 inch here (Woburn) so far.
Maybe 1/4 inch here
Snowing pretty hard here in Boston.
Temp: 32
We had several hours of snow here at the office in Hartford but roads remained just wet. Switched to sleet and now freezing rain. Seeing a lot of reports of accidents throughout CT and slowing moving traffic on the Google maps.
I think we’re going to see a lot of 1-3 amounts Boston N & W (and more in the higher elevations where it’s literally already “more than 3” in some spots). The atmosphere has appeared to idealize itself for precipitation generation on this particular day in our region.
Thank you. Do you expect us to stay snow here or could we see mixing later. We have an hour parade meeting at 6:30. I attend by zoom but worried about others.
Cancel that thought. Meeting just postponed.
Probably best to just hold off – there will be a flip to sleet and probably freezing rain there. I have reservations about the surface warming enough to prevent that for at least the next several hours.
Thank you
I’m hearing pinging on the Windows here
That sounds about right for timing of sleet mix. The warm air is advancing northward aloft, it’s just stubbornly cold at the surface.
We are getting coatings on pavements. This is overachieving on the snow side of things IMHO. I dropped another degree to 30F.
Can’t help but wonder if cold air is being drawn down at least for the moment. It is seriously snowing here. I think I underestimated this whole thing.
There is some of that. But the precipitation generation literally right overhead has been impressive, and nailed by RRFS. As I said above, after a couple of disappointing forecasts by the baby model, I was nervous to just buy into what it was indicating.
I know the model is the RRFS-A (as in Prototype A) but is this model experimental or official in some way.
It’s still considered “experimental” until further notice. They will declare it official and replace the other models with it once satisfied with the tweaks.
The temperature here dropped from 32F around noon to 26F around 3:00 PM and has held steady since.
Small difference between the 12z GFS operational and the 12z GFS AI for next Wednesday….LOL:
https://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_2026_03/image.thumb.gif.22dfc79926e07a05a045d271b450e28d.gif
I saw that. Hilarious.
Moderate to Heavy Snow here in JP.
It’s really coming down.
After a taste of spring incoming this weekend and early next week, things looking interesting again towards mid month into the second half of March…
Judah Cohen
@judah47
8h
Bad habits are hard to break. As I wrote in yesterday’s blog, #PolarVortex (PV) splits this week but the PV all winter really just wants to stretch! Split rapidly transitions to another robust PV stretch & with rapidly expanding cold across North America. Beware the Ides of March
https://x.com/judah47/status/2028819681486745883?s=20
The American Storm
@BigJoeBastardi
7h
Weatherbellians and you, if you have watched some of the tweets, have seen me say “beware the ides of March” for another flip to colder. Well models are seeing it. After one of the warmest front 10 days of March, look where we are by the 15th. Do not be surprised as this pattern evolves that the first 10 days or so of April are as cold in the areas that are that warm in the first 10 days of March.
https://x.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/2028832926025019545?s=20
And loop for March 10 thru March 17 from the 0z Euro Ensemble…
https://x.com/SCweather_wx/status/2028790885123563772?s=20
Flipped to rain, freezing rain. Temp dropped to 29 from a high of 32 so far
29 + rain = definitely freezing rain. Eventually you should make it to 32 or 33 and be borderline.
I am getting the feeling that I am going to see more sleet than originally anticipated.
After a decent slug of snow
Snowing really hard here!! Looks VERY WINTRY out there!
Snow is piling up. We’re over an inch for sure, perhaps way over.
Still 32
Yellow echoes over us in this snow. It is NOT sleet here, at least not yet. I am ready for it to go over to sleet at any time, but NOT yet.
I think we could see more sleet than expected.
Missed the train today but getting lots of snow here in Lexington/Arlington line. Couldn’t sort the last letter.
2 inches here, at least. Snowing hard. I would say HRRR got the cold part right. Still holding firm.
Wankum has a similar setup (snow to mix/rain) for Friday as well.
Then we warmup BIG TIME!!!
That warm-up is not a lock, at least for duration.
Understood.
Nearing 5 inches in Fitchburg.
Sleeting now. 1.5- 2 inches total
I’ll have a Woburn measurement soon. Heading out just about the time the flip to sleet takes place. Eyeballing about 1.5 however.
RRFS, btw, depicted about 5 inches of snow in Fitchburg.
And about 2 inches for boston.
Probably sleet here now.
Transition to sleet has occurred here in Woburn .. right at 5:30 p.m.
The 8-14 day CPC through March 17 shows a definite reintroduction of cold into the U.S. and fleeting warmth around here.
I have spoken about a turn back to colder after a couple of short-lived milder interludes.
Fake spring early middle part of next week. I have seen many times in March you get that spring warmth only to be shoveling a few days later. Will see if that happens this March.