DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 27 – MAY 1)

You’ll hear the word “blocking” often in forecast discussions during the next couple weeks. That is our predominant pattern, and while the players shift around a little, the regime is generally locked in, most certainly for this 5 day period as we move through the last few days of April and arrive at May late this week. However, as I have said many times, “blocking” does not equate automatically to “stormy”. This set-up features high pressure parked near Greenland and low pressure over Atlantic Canada. This slows incoming systems from the west where there is still progression in the pattern. As we saw this weekend, low pressure systems are often forced southeastward, sometimes to graze our region and sometimes miss it. On occasion you can get one of them to come in here. Will that happen this coming week? Yes. However, before we get there, let’s go over what takes place before that. Despite it being a blocking pattern, the weather system sitting over us today and Tuesday as high pressure, bringing nice weather. During Tuesday, the low pressure area well to our east does a loop westward and its circulation closes in by Tuesday night and Wednesday, turning the broad scale wind flow to onshore and bringing in low clouds, and maybe some drizzle especially to coastal areas. So after we have bright sun today and at least most of Tuesday, we go back to the grey. Meanwhile, we’ll be eyeing a low pressure system approaching from the west, slowing, and occluding, followed by a redevelopment that will track slowly across our region on Thursday. This brings us a shot of beneficial rainfall Wednesday night and especially Thursday. I’m still not 100% sold that this will become a solid rain event for the region, as many times we’ve seen guidance paint them this way a few days away only to have them turn out somewhat disappointing. Regardless, what happens late week is a reconfiguration of the upper pattern so that by Friday the upper low to our east is gone, high pressure from Greenland retrogrades into eastern Canada, and a new upper low from the west parks over the US Northeast, meaning cool weather with pop-up showers to start May.

TODAY: Sunny. Highs 55-62 coast, 60-67 inland. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 37-44. Wind NE under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sunshine – may give way to clouds in eastern coastal areas before day’s end. Highs 55-62, coolest coast. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Lows 37-44. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Patchy drizzle possible. Highs 48-55, coolest coast. Wind E to NE 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of rain overnight. Lows 42-49. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain. Highs 46-53. Wind SE 5-15 MPH shifting back to NE.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clouds break. Rain ends. Patchy fog. Lows 38-45. Wind NE to N up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly to mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Highs 50-57. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 2-6)

Blocking pattern with upper trough over the Northeast, meaning below normal temperatures and occasionally unsettled weather, but dry most of the time.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 7-11)

Similar overall pattern. Wet weather chances may increase, but uncertain of that this far in advance.