Thursday March 5 2026 Forecast (6:54AM)

113 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 5-9)

A frontal boundary that has been instrumental in our weather so far this week will continue to play a role as we face another messy late winter weather event. It will start slowly today as clouds thicken across the region and a ribbon of precipitation, falling as rain, stretches eastward across eastern CT, RI, into southeastern MA with time, falling pretty lightly any time from midday on. It is tonight that this area of precipitation will solidify and drift northward to encompass the entire region in response to an eastward-moving low pressure area that will pass just south of our region during the first half of the day Friday. With high pressure in eastern Canada supplying cold air, we’re looking at a variety of precipitation. I’m expecting mainly rain for the South Coast, and while the front edge of the precipitation may be in the form of rain as it heads northward, its meeting with colder air will result in a flip to sleet and pockets of snow the further north you go, with this frozen precipitation variety, dominated by sleet, mostly north of I-90, while along and just south of I-90 more of a mix of sleet and rain is expected, but pockets of freezing rain can occur as well, and this is most likely to be seen in higher elevations from northwestern RI through south central MA due to the land elevation forcing the cold air layer to be more shallow, with precipitation reaching the cold surface as rain, rather than ice pellets. It is this area that has the greatest chance of ice accretion that can lead to very slippery travel and some tree branches coming down (increasing the power outage risk). The wildcard on this system is how much snow vs. sleet in parts of northern MA and southern NH, mainly from the Route 2 corridor northward. Right now, I would expected a general coating to 2 inch snow and sleet combination accumulation north of I-90, with 2 to 4 inch potential, more dominated by snow, along and north of the Route 2 corridor, especially away from the coast. I cannot rule out an accumulation exceeding 4 inches in a few locations that stay snow longest. Precipitation tapers off and ends from west to east during the morning and midday hours on Friday. Behind the system, we’re to be left with chilly air trapped at low levels, patches of drizzle or freezing drizzle, and areas of fog, and this can persist into early Saturday morning before a change takes place. This will occur as yet another low pressure area tracks northeastward through the Great Lakes into southern Canada, and an increasing southwesterly air flow gradually scours out the low level cold air. Saturday’s weather will eventually turn out milder, though clouds may remain dominant much of the time. This low’s cold front will slide across the region during Sunday morning and midday with a rain shower risk, followed by some clearing. The air behind that front will not be particularly cold, and will be of modified continental origin rather than the chilly eastern Canadian / maritime air we just experienced, so a milder feel can be enjoyed later Sunday through Monday as drier weather returns to the region.

The switch from Standard Time to Daylight Saving Time takes place on Sunday (2:00 a.m. EST becomes 3:00 a.m. EDT).

TODAY: Fog patches and patchy black ice early to mid morning, otherwise any early sun fades behind thickening clouds. Light rain arrives midday on eastern CT, RI, and into southeastern MA. Highs 40-47. Wind calm early, then E up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Overcast. Areas of fog. Rain overspreads the region but changes to sleet and snow north of I-90 with pockets of freezing rain and sleet to the south except remaining mainly liquid rain South Coast. Greatest chance for freezing rain higher elevation areas of southern MA into northwestern RI. Lows 30-37. Wind E to NE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts overnight Cape Cod.

FRIDAY: Overcast. Areas of fog. Precipitation (mainly sleet / snow north and mix / rain south) tapering off from west to east by midday with patchy drizzle and freezing drizzle remaining thereafter. Total snow and sleet accumulation ranging from patchy coatings south of I-90 to a solid coating to 2 inches I-90 belt to the Route 2 corridor, with 2 to 4 inches more common north of the Route 2 corridor including isolated 4 to 6 inch amounts in interior southern NH and north central MA. Highs 32-39. Wind NE to N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts Cape Cod and eastern coastal areas.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Patchy drizzle / freezing drizzle. Foggy areas. Areas of black ice. Lows 30-37. Wind calm.

SATURDAY: Cloudy start with areas of fog and patchy drizzle, then breaking clouds with partial sun at times midday on. Highs 43-50, coolest South Coast. Wind calm early, eventually SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. A rain shower possible overnight. Lows 35-42. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy with a rain shower possible in the morning, then clearing. Highs 47-54, coolest Cape Cod. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 38-45. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 43-50 South Coast, 50-57 elsewhere. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 10-14)

Watch for a sneaky back-door cold front potential early in the period, but right now leaning toward a strong enough southwesterly air flow to keep that from happening, with above normal temperatures, but modified much cooler air South Coast. A mid period cold front sweeps through with rain shower chances, may mix with snow at end, then a return to seasonably chilly air for mid March later in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 15-19)

Pattern volatility but a trend to colder than normal while we watch for an end-of-spring bout or two of precipitation, which can include frozen precipitation.

113 thoughts on “Thursday March 5 2026 Forecast (6:54AM)”

  1. TK – Thanks for this amazingly detailed forecast. There’s nowhere else that I can get so much information about the world north of route 2 and away from the coast!

    Reply

    1. 🙂

      Now let’s just hope there’s some reasonable amount of accuracy in that outlook! 😉

      Reply

  3. Good morning and thank you TK.

    32 here after low of 30

    Ocean: 36

    WORDLE: 4

    Assortment of 6z models are quite robust for sleet and snow for boston. Others not so much.

    We shall see.

    Reply

  7. Thanks TK !

    Wordle: 3

    Big QPF this event. (0.7 to 1.2 at and south of the Pike.)

    Once again, an anemic low, but maybe slightly more of a breeze this time because of a pressure gradient this time with a 1,040 mb low to our north. Maybe that prevents freezing rain this go around in eastern Marshfield?

    Reply

  8. As you know, I do Wordle at midnight. When the correct word pops into my head from nowhere, I call it midnight magic

    Today I had one letter, not correct position, after two guesses. And by what I can only think is midnight magic, ended with the word in 3

    https://ibb.co/RT1vFSZc

    Reply

  9. Thank you, TK! Like SClarke, I appreciate the detail for areas outside the city, as well as the terrific discussion. This forecast sure has a lot of elements and nuances!

    Reply

  13. Just wondering if you see any flooding with this event in Natick.? Maybe hard to tell with the varieties of precip involved. Thanks.

    Reply

  15. 12Z RAP which only goes out 21 hours, so still snowing

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rap&p=ref1km_ptype&rh=2026030512&fh=21&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    Kuchera snow

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rap&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2026030512&fh=21&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    Model ratio snow

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rap&p=snowfall_acc-imp&rh=2026030512&fh=21&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    SEE any differences there? I have a feeling that the Kuchera didn’t handle the crap load of sleet very well at all.

    Just for giggles, here is the 10:1 snow which we KNOW for certain doesn’t handle the sleet!!!!

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rap&p=sn10_acc-imp&rh=2026030512&fh=21&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    Reply

  16. Thank you TK!

    Nice job to all of the Wordlers. I am boarding the 4 car today after making a stupid mistake on my third guess. Grrrr!

    Reply

  17. Trending colder and colder, I see.

    Not surprised.

    1,040 mb overwhelming 1,021 mb low and of course, the flow aloft. Its not deep SW, which would overwhelm the column with warmth at most levels.

    Reply

  20. On a technical sense, I have no idea what Winter storm watch criteria are.

    On a practical/common sense, some ice, then decent sleet, then some snow is probably coming to somewhere in Middlesex and Essex counties and I think there will be some brief high end impact up there tomorrow morning, until the March solar radiation takes care of that midday tomorrow.

    But, my thought is, I think one could argue a need for a winter storm watch in, at least, those 2 counties for a very high impact tomorrow morning.

    Reply

    1. NWS has a Winter Weather advisory out already.
      They could simply add wordage that those counties might be impacted more.

      Not for nothing, but it is possible the high impact could go as far South as boston and surrounding area. We shall see.

      It seems all pros think the higher impact will be to the North.

      I can only go by the models I am seeing and thus I see a chance
      for high impact farther South. Will there be? Who knows.

      Reply

  22. Northern Maine is ice cold.

    That kind of cold won’t make it in here, but Bar Harbor’s dp is 19F.

    Advect just a little of that dry air in and that alone will wet bulb the boundary layer temp later this evening and that’s why a change to frz rain first. Then, the column’s cold will slowly deepen with time.

    Reply

    1. Everything am looking at has it basically go from rain to Sleet with little or NO freezing rain in between, except inland where it is farther away from the deeper cold. This WILL be interesting.

      It may very well end up mostly rain down this way. But those models have my interest and I am on alert.

      Reply

    1. With all this snow in the northeast, it makes no sense. Hopefully snowmelt will get into the ground and bring water levels back up closer to the surface.

      Reply

      1. I think you got it in your 2nd sentence.

        The ground is frozen and so most of the water runs off into the streams and rivers and is back in the ocean within days.

        I do think some of it, is getting it into the ground and raising those water tables.

        Reply

  30. Historically, in my opinion, the GFS tends to overall run too cold and the regular NAM, too mild/warm.

    Humungous spread btwn the 2, but the likely outcome lies somewhere btwn them.

    Don’t know if it will be halfway btwn them or closer to one or the other.

    Reply

  31. Lewiston, ME has gone from a 32F dp at 9am to 21F currently.

    There’s more sun up north and that can mislead, because the March sun can moderate things. Its the dp’s to follow this time of the year.

    Drier air continues to slowly head south and southwestward.

    Reply

  33. I’m looking at that ob page (mesonet) and there is a push of NE winds pushing towards Boston.

    Lawrence, MA gusting to 26, Beverly gusting to 24 mph and its breezy from the northeast, further to the northeast behind this leading edge of that push.

    Reply

  34. Thoughts on a the drive from Natick to Holden for a HS basketball tournament t game that tips off at 6:00 and then the drive home (hopefully after a. Natick victory)?

    Reply

  36. Wordle 5, not my kind of day lol.

    Can’t wait for the warmup. Slipping on black ice during runs isn’t fun.

    Reply

  37. Thanks TK! Happy for just rain on the South Coast. I am curious at the rate of snowmelt on a day like yesterday – bright sun and mid 40s. How many inches of snow do we lose on a day like that? It was nice to have a 37 inch snowstorm but I am ready to turn the page.

    Reply

  38. Is Boston getting snow , I am out of the weather loop & just for a weather alert calling for 1- 5 inches

    Reply

    1. Pretty Strong NE here. Was outside just now and driving around 1:15 where there was a bit of sleet mixed in. No sleet now.
      Temperature has dropped from 45 to 38.5 and dropping STEADILY. I think we get a good deal of sleet later. Time will tell.

      Reply

      1. 18Z HRRR has sleet in Boston by 11PM and SNOW by 3 AM

        https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=ref1km_ptype&rh=2026030518&fh=10&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

        https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=ref1km_ptype&rh=2026030518&fh=14&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

        Kuchera snow

        https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2026030518&fh=28&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

        Model ratio snow

        https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=snowfall_acc-imp&rh=2026030518&fh=28&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

        Reply

  42. SSK

    Sending best wishes of a speedy recovery for your wife.
    I am so sorry you are both going through this.

    Reply

    1. Really appreciate that , things just suck right now . She’s getting CT scan now to see if the infection has calmed down so they can operate. I just came back to work today & just don’t want to me here . On a 16 hour double

      Reply

  43. Winter Weather Advisory has been up, Here is the latest

    URGENT – WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
    National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
    123 PM EST Thu Mar 5 2026

    CTZ002-MAZ003-005>007-010-011-013>015-RIZ001-003-061000-
    /O.CON.KBOX.WW.Y.0013.260305T2200Z-260306T1700Z/
    Hartford CT-Eastern Franklin MA-Central Middlesex MA-Western
    Essex MA-Eastern Essex MA-Eastern Hampshire MA-Eastern Hampden MA-
    Western Norfolk MA-Southeast Middlesex MA-Suffolk MA-Northwest
    Providence RI-Western Kent RI-
    Including the cities of Boston, Coventry, Northampton,
    Foxborough, Foster, Norwood, Smithfield, Gloucester, Greenfield,
    West Greenwich, Lowell, Windsor Locks, Springfield, Cambridge,
    Lawrence, Framingham, Amherst, Hartford, and Orange
    123 PM EST Thu Mar 5 2026

    …WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS
    AFTERNOON TO NOON EST FRIDAY…

    * WHAT…Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow and sleet
    accumulations of a coating to 2 inches in western MA, up to 4
    inches in northeastern MA, and ice accumulations around one tenth
    of an inch in both regions.

    * WHERE…Portions of northern Connecticut, eastern, northeastern,
    and western Massachusetts, and northern Rhode Island.

    * WHEN…From 5 PM this afternoon to noon EST Friday.

    * IMPACTS…Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
    conditions could impact the Thursday evening and Friday morning
    commutes.

    PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

    Slow down and use caution while traveling.

    Reply

    1. Thanks JPD. The snow map accumulations have increased a bit. Earlier Boston had only an inch.

      Interesting that the snow area is moving “due north to due south”.

      Reply

      1. The actual precipitation is moving in a more West to East motion, however, at the same time colder air is draining NE to SW into our area, thus moving the area that receives snow
        farther to the South.

        Very interesting set up.

        Reply

  46. So, my assumption was correct. The Kuchera method does NOT handle sleet properly at all!!!! I found this:

    how does the kuchera method hanlde sleet
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    These are results for how does the kuchera method handle sleet
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    AI Overview
    The Kuchera method
    generally does not account for sleet, as it is designed for snow-only scenarios and often overestimates totals when sleet is present. While standard models may treat mixed precipitation (including sleet) as a 10:1 ratio, Kuchera focuses on snowfall density based on temperature, potentially leading to inaccurate, high-end totals if significant sleet falls.
    Key Details on Handling Sleet:

    Snow-Only Focus: The technique calculates snowfall based on snow-to-liquid ratios (SLRs) derived from temperature profiles, rather than liquid water content, meaning it does not accurately differentiate between heavy snow and denser sleet.
    Overestimation Risk: Because sleet has a much lower expansion ratio (roughly 2:1) compared to snow, using a higher Kuchera ratio (e.g., 10:1 or higher) when sleet is falling can result in over-forecasted totals.
    Model Assumptions: In many cases, models using this method treat frozen precipitation (including some sleet) as snow, applying a higher ratio than what the actual accumulation of dense sleet would be.

    I think the Model ratios of the RRFSA, HRRR and RAP probably handle sleet much better. Compare the Kuchera with the model ratio (total snow) and when SLeet is involved the model ratio is has a considerably lower total. GOOD TO KNOW

    Reply

  47. So if we assume SLEET has a ratio of 2:1, then we “could” possibly see 1 inch of sleet with an inch or 2 of snow on top.

    Reply

  52. Thanks, TK.

    Flying via Iceland as many times as I did – dozens of flights – I became aware of very typical weather there in almost any month besides June, July, and August: skýjað regn og snjór og slydda

    This means cloudy with rain, snow, and sleet.

    When I tried reading the local newspaper, Morgunbladid, I’d often see the forecast above. The emphasis was often on slydda (sleet). They have a ton of it in Reykjavik.

    So, our upcoming weather event looks like an Icelandic special to me.

    Reply

  53. Quick 12z review leads me to say: no changes!

    Basically mirrors the update I just posted from SAK’s Storm HQ blog.

    While Tuesday’s event was a little surprising due to the intensity of the initial snow burst, this event should not have much in the way of surprise in store. I think we have a handle on it, despite how borderline the temp profile is for it.

    Reply

  54. TK, great discussion! What do you think of the increase in QPF on the 18z RRFSA. For example Providence shows 1.5 inches most of which comes from 11pm to 4am. HRRR and 3km NAM are more around an inch.

    Reply

    1. Not quite certain on that, but I am not inclined to just dismiss it, given how well the RRFS-A did on the Tuesday system, which is quite similar in overall synoptic orientation to this one.

      Again these are all case studies for a new model (I realize there are 2 versions running in parallel but still good to observe how they hand things). It’s an exiting time for short range model advancement in the field. We’ll be seeing more of this in the time before us.

      Reply

  55. I continue to see some pretty compelling evidence to not ignore the possibility that a back-door front spoils the warm up for some and maybe even all of the region for at least a portion of the Tuesday / Wednesday time frame next week. I’m simply not convinced we’re slam dunk warm. And not only that, given that medium range guidance often does struggle with timing, it’s also possible that Wednesday’s weather, in addition to being quite chilly, would also end up overcast with a precipitation threat. Don’t rule it out.

    Reply

    1. I rule out nothing in March.

      An Austrian philosopher (a contrarian/anarchist) by the name of Feyerabend famously said , “Anything Goes.” That’s how I describe March in Boston/SNE.

      Reply

  57. The 8-14 day outlook through March 19 is now for below normal temperatures. All above normal temperatures pushed back to the western states.

    What a difference a week makes!

    Reply

  58. TK – Will our precipitation opportunities between mid-March into early April come more from “overrunning” as opposed to one or two big east coast storms?

    Reply

    2. Remains to be seen. I’m not sure of the details of the pattern yet from day 10 to day 30. 🙂

      Reply

    1. btw, 20Z HRRR brings sleet and then change to snow EARLIER for Boston than the 18 or 19Z run. We shall see.

      Reply

  62. I think the best “model simulation” of this upcoming event is the “snow depth change” map on the HRRR from the 20z run.

    Reply

  65. Happened to see Eric at 5pm for his weathercast

    He showed a sounding to explain the sleet vs snow possibilities.

    Not easy to show a sounding and explain it to the public, but he did it and did it well. It was short, clear, concise and made perfect understandable sense.

    It was awesome !! First I’ve seen a met use a sounding on TV.

    Reply

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