DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 6-10)
For all the explanation, in the end the atmosphere was 1 to 2 degrees “milder” and therefore the more prominent frozen (sleet / snow) portion of the event was far less dominant, and rain with pockets of freezing rain were far more dominant, with sleet / snow well to the north finally making its way into about the Route 2 corridor during the pre-dawn hours today. Here in Woburn I have maybe 0.2 inch of a mostly sleet and slightly snow combo, with a little bit left to go, but make no mistake that in the areas coated or have a small accumulation of snow and sleet, there is some slippery travel to deal with this morning, and even worse, a solid glaze of freezing rain in the higher elevations of south central and central MA and some adjacent areas. These conditions will be slow to improve today as we remain overcast and chilly even as the precipitation tapers off, leaving an overcast with areas of fog and drizzle in its wake as a wave of low pressure departs to the east. We stay on the chilly side of the frontal boundary this wave was riding along into Saturday too, and it won’t be until sometime in the afternoon that the boundary will finally lift through as a warm front in response to stronger low pressure heading through the Great Lakes region. Temperatures Saturday, while milder than today, probably fail to reach 50 across most if not all of the area. We can also see some patchy drizzle lingering in the morning, and I cannot even rule out a quick episode of rain with the eventual passage of the warm front. The low moving through the Great Lakes then crosses southeastern Canada Sunday and drags its cold front through our region. That will be a slightly milder day, breaking 50 across the interior while the South Coast / Cape Cod stay in the 40s with a southwest wind off the ocean. We can expect some passing rain showers associated with the cold front, but clouds will also break for sun at times, especially once the front goes by during the afternoon hours. So, if there is a “pick” to the weekend for better weather, it goes to Sunday. Once that cold front clears the region, in comes a push of drier air, and with the source region for the post-frontal air mass not being too cold, I’m expecting Monday to be a little milder to warmer still with fair weather across the region. Tuesday’s forecast becomes a little more tricky. With the next front from the west still some distance away, you’d figure we’re in the clear for a milder / warmer day with fair weather, but it’s not that simple. There will be a high pressure area building in eastern Canada, and these can be under-simulated by model guidance and many times end up a little stronger than shown several days in advance. If this is the case, the ability of a frontal boundary to our north to be forced southward becomes easier, and this may put somewhat of a cap on the warm up that day if the boundary comes through and winds shift to north or northeast. This will be something I’ll be looking closely at the trend for over the coming few days.
Another reminder that the switch from Standard Time to Daylight Saving Time takes place on Sunday (2:00 a.m. EST becomes 3:00 a.m. EDT).
TODAY: Overcast. Areas of fog. Precipitation (mainly sleet / snow north and mix / rain south) tapering off from west to east by midday with patchy drizzle and freezing drizzle remaining thereafter. Minor additional snow and sleet accumulation mainly north of Route 2 into mid morning with some additional icing potential in higher elevations of south central MA early morning. Highs 32-39. Wind NE to N 5-15 MPH, a few higher gusts in the 20-25 MPH range Cape Ann & Cape Cod MA.
TONIGHT: Cloudy. Patchy drizzle / freezing drizzle. Foggy areas. Areas of black ice. Lows 30-37. Wind calm.
SATURDAY: Cloudy start with areas of fog and patchy drizzle, then breaking clouds with partial sun at times midday on. Highs 42-49, coolest South Coast. Wind calm early, eventually S to SW up to 10 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. A rain shower possible overnight. Temperatures rise slightly to 45-52. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Variably cloudy with a rain shower possible in the morning, then increasing sun from west to east. Temperatures steady 45-52 South Coast and highs 52-59 elsewhere. Wind SW to W 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 38-45. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 45-52 South Coast, coolest Cape Cod, 52-59 elsewhere. Wind W to SW 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear to partly cloudy. Lows 37-44. Wind SW to W up to 10 MPH.
TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 53-60 except cooler in coastal areas and may drop to the 40s afternoon. Wind variable to W 5-15 MPH may shift to N or NE during the day.
DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 11-15)
Leaning unsettled early to mid period with the potential for rain/mix/snow and colder conditions before a trend back to fair weather later in the period.
DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 16-20)
Additional cold and potentially unsettled weather again early period before a trend to variable temperatures but still a somewhat unsettled pattern.
Thanks TK
My laugh of the day so far on X where people are saying winter of 2026 -2027 is cancelled due to a strong El Nino.
Hurricane season is cancelled too. 😉 HAHA
Thanks TK!
Wordle today was just awful… spoilers: https://ibb.co/zTfVKmQZ been a while since I whiffed like that.
Re weather: just as forecast. It was on the border and always was going to be! Perfectly predicted.
May I join you. Awful word is correct!!!
I TRIED 3 OF THE WORDS YOU TRUED.
Hated it! First total loss in a while!
I have had streaks of up to 36 days. Today ended a streak of 29 days
I have playd 257 games
and failed 30 times!!! for a win rate of 88%, which I consider quite poor for me!!!
I’ll be most here are well into the 90s win rate.
Thanks TK
Good morning and thank you TK
28 here’s but it was 35 at 4AM
A touch of glaze/sleet/snow.
Ocean; 36
WORDLE; FAIL
Zilch on 1st 2 guesses. 3 letters out of position on guess 3. Then 3 guesses with the last 4 correct’ but 1st letters wrong. Wordle always wants different wordd than I give it. I Even thought about using the correct word but said NO that can’t be it!!!!! And didn’t t use it. Figures.
Bizarre word.
Its not you, JpDave 🙂
Thanks TK !
Wordle: 5
I thought I had a chance at both a 3 or 4
That word is digging deep into the encyclopedia. 🙂
First to get it today! Nice job!
Very nice, Tom
Temp dropped pretty good in Boston once that wind came around to N a couple hrs before dawn.
I assume its icy up there.
Not here, its held at 36F.
I took a drop of 7 degrees within a couple of hours this AM. Currently 27F.
Wordle 6… squealed it out
Another to make it. Nice
Nice TJammer
The transition in my area was rain to freezing rain to snow to freezing rain and now snow flurries. Treacherous footing.
So do we all run along behind the train
Looks as if I’m in great company. Wordle FAIL
Wow! 3 fails today. I think that is a record!!!
I don’t feel as badly now. 🙂
Thank you, TK. We are at 28. We spent s good part of the night at 34. I don’t think we had anything frozen I cannot imagine anyone is complaining about not having ice.
We got about an inch of sleet covered with a dusting of snow around 6:30 – 7:00 this morning.
For no good reason, I made the right guess to get Wordle in 4.
We have a WINNER!!!! Great job!!!!
Wow. Excellent 4. I’m seeing fails from
fb friends too.
Because of the below ocean temperatures could this spring and early summer have a much higher number of back door cold fronts? Or do we get into a pattern of land breezes? Any thoughts?
Haven’t played Wordle in a while but with reports like this I had to give it a try… Wordle in 4….
Excellent!!
Wow. Excellent!!
Temperature is ONLY creeping upwards. Up to 31 from low of 28.
Thank you TK!
Looks like the Wordle party is at the station today for all who missed the train, including me!
Oh my. The number of fails I’ve seen is growing. Fun to be in the group with you
Join the crowd. That makes 4 fails today.
Thank you, TK.
Well, this week is a good example of why I dislike March. Have not been able to do my outdoor run for 3 straight days. Most of the path has been and is too icy. I’ll take teens and sunny, or even a path covered with some snow. But not this. And it happens almost every year, whether because of sleet or rain that freezes or the melt/refreeze process.
I ran in the street anyway despite the random black ice. Probably not smart lol
Betting now that next Wednesday’s weather is similar to today’s.
Yes.
GFS already headed there.
The 12z ICON is still warm sector, until you look at that big H over James Bay. The models have the effect of that canadian high pressure area on New England way under-modeled.
I was already heading there 60 hours ago.
Yes, I remember 🙂
What is going on today with the low level temps is pretty impressive.
Right now, the sun angle is 38 degrees, destined for 42 degrees just before noon-time and the temps have barely budged since sunrise. Again, impressive.
Thick overcast, 36-40 degree ocean, and NE wind.
Indeed !
Thanks, TK!
Please stop with the constant reminders of DST returning this Sunday. 🙁
I find it interesting how the media reminds us to change our clocks in the spring well in advance and over and over but in the fall, it gets barely mentioned until the last minute.
I don’t like how our nation is heading in the direction of permanent DST. Not at all. 🙁
I can deal with it, not matter what they do.
As someone around here once said, IT IS WHAT IT IS.
WOW!!!! ALL The way up to 32 now.
Took some doing!!!
Thanks TK. It was snowing and 22 where my brother lives in South Portland, ME this morning. There is a lot of cold air around.
My wife and daughter, on college break, are in Tampa, in a non spring break, party area 🙂 🙂 🙂
Anyhow, its currently 81F with a dp of 70F. In this new pattern, the deep south has gone from what has been a tough winter straight to summer. Supposed to be 90F ish the next 5 days.
I am envious, but hopefully, less than 4 or 5 years before I camp the winters away in Florida.
Thanks TK.
Recorded just over an inch of rain yesterday. The temp last night hovered around 32/33F in Coventry and we had no icing. Snowpack still holding strong as well. Going to be pushing two months straight with a snowpack which is one of the longest stretches I can recall since I moved to CT.
The storm yesterday was a bit different than the one earlier in the week where precip was moving in while we had a very cold antecedent airmass (was 8F Tues AM) and surfaces were very cold. Lots of icing throughout the state. Yesterday we were much milder in the 24 hours preceding and were depending on the atmosphere and surfaces to cool during the event (and it was slow to do so). Not entirely surprised yesterday was less impactful.
0z Euro had quite the late season snowstorm about 10 days from now….
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=prateptype_cat_ecmwf-imp&rh=2026030600&fh=258&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=
We’ll see if it is still there on 12z.
12z GFS and CMC both have accumulating snow threats next weekend as well:
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gdps&rh=2026030612&fh=198&dpdt=&mc=
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&rh=2026030612&fh=216&dpdt=&mc=
The El Nino forecast that JJ mentioned earlier….wow! Doesnt mean it wont start to reverse come next winter though…
https://x.com/ericfisher/status/2029704570507497591?s=20
Ben Noll
@BenNollWeather
4h
El Niño forming by May, potentially becoming strong by August — new ECMWF seasonal modeling.
By the numbers:
• 22% chance of a super El Niño by August
• 80% chance of a strong event
• 98% chance of a moderate event
That’s according to data from 50 ensemble members.
https://x.com/BenNollWeather/status/2029901123948323276?s=20
Perfect timing! We are heading out to Utah next Wed-Sun as I have mentioned before and skiing at Snowbird, Alta, and Deer Valley. Looking mild and dry next week when we are there so likely will be spring-like skiing conditions but at least they will have a decent base.
Matthew Johnson
@KSL_Matt
52m
SNOWBIRD SNOW MACHINE: This storm does not want to give up! As of 9:26 AM Snowbird is recording 30” of new snow, forecast only had 16-20” tops! Finally a storm that’s over-performing this season! #utwx
:
@Snowbird
, UT
: Jordan Marks
https://x.com/KSL_Matt/status/2029961265918132305?s=20
This is pretty incredible. The overall warm and dry pattern out West this winter has just been relentless….
Colin McCarthy
@US_Stormwatch
16h
The Sierra Nevada and Southern Cascades in California just saw their fastest snowpack melt from late Feb to early March in recorded history.
Tahoe City Cross station lost 63 inches of snow depth in 13 days. Fallen Leaf Lake (South Lake Tahoe) went from 119% of normal snowpack on Feb 20 to 0% today. The entire snowpack there is gone.
https://x.com/US_Stormwatch/status/2029729070775423456?s=20
Here is the 12Z version of the 9Z Euro snow storm:
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=prateptype_cat_ecmwf-imp&rh=2026030612&fh=240&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=
A few things…
1) The El Nino hype is going to be off the charts. Happens every time. It’s the ENSO version of winter weather hype that we started getting after the 1978 winter. The current outlooks are LONG RANGE outlooks with limited confidence. Yes, we likely get to El Nino. Yes it’s probable we get to a moderate one. Yes it’s POSSIBLE we see a stronger one. Yes, it’s happened before. Take everything you see out there with a grain of salt and avoid any source that operates under a specific narrative. This is science.
2) Took a quick look at the 12z guidance and I see no need to change my current outlook. Today I had several people say “So I heard we’re going into the 70s next week!” It’s getting to the point now where if it happens in person all I have to do is look at them a certain way, and then they get it. No words needed. See? People can learn. They just need frequent reminders. (See my DAYS 6-10 for more.)
3) For sports fans: The Paralympics have started in Italy. I’ve always been a fan of this competition following the regular olympics. Opening cermony today (in fact, ongoing now). A few wheelchair curling matches have already taken place and will continue through the games, which run through March 15, along with several other events such as para-skiing, para-snowboarding, and sled hockey. 🙂
CPC outlooks…
6-10: Temps near normal. Precip near to above normal.
8-14: Temps below normal. Precip above normal.
Week 3-4: Temps below normal. Precip near to above normal.
Don’t put away the shovels yet. 😉
Right by the front door 🙂
Does that mean 70” achievable for Boston? 😉
Total to date: 62.5”
It’s definitely achievable until we are sometime in May.
Not counting on May. NO WAY!
May 1977 was a freak once in a 1,000 year occurrence. 🙂
I didn’t say Boston was going to get measurable snow in May. We don’t actually know if they will or not. It’s highly unlikely, based on climatology, but you don’t rule such a thing out if it has happened before. One in 1000? Show me the stats to say it wouldn’t happen for literally 10 more centuries, or didn’t happen after the year 977 a.d. in the geographical location that would become Boston. 🙂
Parts of southern New England, INCLUDING just 12 miles from Logan Airport, had measurable snowfall on MAY 18 2002.
Just happened six years ago in 2020!! See my post below….
https://weather.us/radar-us/63577c57c425c42641907a829e018a0c/velocity/KIWX_20260306-204520z.html
Dangerous, likely tornado on the ground in southwest Michigan. Here’s the couplet.
https://weather.us/radar-us/63577c57c425c42641907a829e018a0c/reflectivity/KIWX_20260306-204503z.html
Classic hook echo
Pete & I are about 25 degrees different on Boston’s high temp for next Wed. 🙂
Maybe I should make a pizza bet with him. 😉
I love that Idea
Eric F has 72 Tuesday and 62 Wednesday for Boston but said Wednesday was on the fence and could go either way.
Also said the rest of the snow will rapidly melt away this weekend due to high dewpoints.
We will lose a real lot of that snow cover.
Philip –
It snowed on Mother’s Day weekend (May 8 and 9) in 2020 at my house and we had an inch accumulation that Friday night after rain changed to snow. We then had a snow squall during the day Saturday that coated the ground in a brief whiteout. Insane!! Was not an isolated event either…there were widespread 5-10″ accumulations in NNE, blizzard conditions in Maine, and Central Park NY reported reported its latest snow ever (tied with 1977).
Here are two of my posts from that day (I had many more!)….
Mark
May 9, 2020 at 3:37 PM
Thanks TK.
Pretty incredible day for May 9. Had a nice coating of snow this AM that whitened everything. The last of the snow and ice did not melt off the deck until 12:30PM! Very blustery and cold out….still haven’t even made it out of the 30’s here.
Here is a shot I took of the deck before sunrise…
https://imgur.com/Ei6EeuL
And another of the front lawn. Dog said what the hell is this!?
https://imgur.com/MTBTfkS
And video from the snow squall that moved through the evening of May 9….
https://vimeo.com/416792618
Entire blog link for that day…
https://www.woodshill.net/?p=9907
I have a pic of an oriole at my feeder with snow flaked. Also may 9 1977 or 8.
Oops you mentioned that. Sorry
Orioles. May 2020. Hard to see snow
https://ibb.co/VYq5sSNX
I remember you posting that…great shot!
A friend has family in mountain grove Missouri. Does anyone have an idea of when or if tornadoes might hit the area.
Thank you very much
18z GFS interesting for Thursday night/Friday……
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2026030618&fh=153&dpdt=&mc=
Pretty wintry overall run thereafter as well with several snow/mix chances. The shovel and snowblower will remain at the ready until further notice.
I got the jeopardy answer relative humidity. 🙂 🙂
Yay !!
Missed it watching the Celtics 🙂
Do you record. So sorry if I spoiled for you
Not at all about spoiling it.
I watch it occasionally and when I do, my goal is to get 1 right before the episode ends 🙂
Love it ❤️
About 4pm, I posted a radar on a supercell in southwest Michigan with a tornado.
As of now, 4 people have been killed.
This supercell was all alone, it had a very unstable atmosphere all to itself with nothing to disrupt its environment.
It travelled a long way.
I think Eric Fisher has a post from a couple hrs ago with a very large tornado on the ground and I believe that was the tornado in this cell.
Isolated super cell near the boundary of winter air to the north and very warm air to the south. The upper air support was ideal for a long-lived super cell and powerful tornado.